Trade Values: Embiid, Harden, and Simmons

[ProcessDoctor]

So, as most of us are aware, we may be at (or are quickly approaching) a crossroads with our franchise player. Joel Embiid has been with our franchise for 11 seasons. We've had a lot of ups and downs throughout his tenure, and I fully expect a 30 for 30 on The Process one day. Signs continue to point towards us building a younger team, which may or may not still include Embiid.

With that out of the way, I'm curious what Sixers (or rival) fans think about Embiid's current trade value relative to Simmons's in 2021-22 and Harden's in 2023. I remember reading a lot of negativity regarding the potential return for the latter 2, but Morey was able to extract positive value/upgrades for both. I now see a lot of negativity regarding Embiid's value as well, both on our forum and the general board. Here's a summary of the 3 players at the time of their trade availability (and theoretical availability in Joel's case):

Joel Embiid
Age: 31
Contract: 4 years, $248.1 mil (PO final year)
Key accolades: 1x MVP, 7x All-Star, 5x All-NBA, 3x All-Defense
Situation: Multiple injuries, recent knee surgery
Trade: ?

James Harden
Age: 34
Contract: 1 year, $35.6 mil
Key accolades: 1x MVP, 10x All-Star, 7x All-NBA
Situation: Contract dispute and holdout, wanted to be traded to Clippers
Trade: Harden, Tucker, and Petrusev for Morris, Covington, Batum, Martin, 2026 OKC 1st (protected), 2028 LAC 1st (unprotected), 2029 1st swap (unprotected), 2024 LAC 2nd, 2029 LAC 2nd

Ben Simmons
Age: 26
Contract: 4 years, $147 mil
Accolades: 3x All-Star, 1x All-NBA, 2x All-Defense
Situation: Holdout for 9 months, wanted to play anywhere except Philly
Trade: Simmons, Curry, Drummond, 2022 PHI 1st (unprotected), and 2027 PHI 1st (top-8 protected) for Harden and Milsap

All things considered, how would you rank the trade value of these 3 players from highest to lowest?

[ivysixer2000]

Weird question, especially since we don't even know if we are dealing Jojo yet. But I will bite.

Jojo, then Harden, then Ben. Ben was seen as a failure cause he couldn't shoot and punked out against the Hawks. Also everyone knew Ben has never ever actually worked on his game. By far the lowest. Next there is Harden, who at the time was seen as a fat playoff chocker, still is. He is the oldest, and needed a new contract while quitting on every team he had been on except the Thunder when he was a kid and trying to get paid.

Jojo is still worth more than them just cause he hasn't asked out, and actually wants to stay a Sixer. If you read this and other boards here about Jojo, you shouldn't be doing it or believing it. His health is obviously the biggest concern, so he is different than the other 2 (although both of them have issues there). Health and the size of his contract makes him hard to deal, not him as a person or player like the other 2.

[the_process]

Ben > Harden > Embiid

Ben was still young coming off an All-NBA team and was under contract. Harden was older, known for his gag reflex, and had demanded a trade to only one team. Unless Embiid plays significant time everyone will assume he is damaged goods.

[76ciology]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

[ProcessDoctor]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

This has been my perspective as well. I'll add that I think the same teams who lose out on Durant would be interested in Embiid - Heat, Timberwolves, and maybe Spurs. Funny you mention the Raptors - per Jake Fischer, there's buzz they will try to make a big move this summer.

It's also to our benefit if Giannis decides to stay in Milwaukee.

The poll results are interesting so far. No single answer has been voted for twice yet lol.

[mjkvol]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

I'd like to believe you're right, but I have to see it before I'll believe it. If he was without the extension and was an expiring, different story, but it will take some level of desperation for a team to take on that contract for a guy who by all appearances is a shell of what he was.

I just think it's absurd to suggest that young, ascending teams with smart management like SA, HOU, or DET would flush all that in a gamble for a broken down, ultra-expensive 280 lb. center. All it takes is one team, but my bet is it would be someone like NO, SAC, or CHI, teams at a crossroads who can't seem to decide what they want to be.

[ProcessDoctor]

It's a shame Phoenix is a 2nd apron team and can't take Embiid's salary back for KD (makes $0.5 mil less). Otherwise, that could be a potential 3-team trade.

Best-case scenario, if we wanted to trade him this summer, would be Giannis staying put and KD going to San Antonio. That would leave Houston, Toronto, Minnesota, Golden State, and Miami as teams looking for a win-now move with no other obvious target. This doesn't even include the random teams that just want to take a big swing (i.e. New Orleans) or acquire a star name to sell tickets (i.e. Chicago).

Still five-way tie in the poll lol.

[sixers hoops]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

I don’t think anybody touches Embiid. Bynum and Kawhi were much lower risk than Jo. Both Kawhi and Bynum were in the last year of their contracts.

Here was a report when the Sixers acquired Bynum “There are, of course, questions about Bynum, namely his health and maturity. First, the health; in his seven years as a pro, Bynum has only played in a full 82 games once. From 2007 until 2011, he missed an average of 30 games due to knee problems. The knee problems were injuries, and not degenerative conditions. He was healthy and very productive in 2011-12, having his best season, scoring 18.7 points per game, grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game in 35.7 minutes per game. Bynum shot 56% from the floor and 70% from the free throw line.”

Bynum played 60 of 66 games in his last season with the Lakers. He missed only one game due to injury.

And with Kawhi, he was a pending free-agent. Even if he never played, it was a pretty low-risk trade. And they were confident he would play the next season. Is any team confident Jo is playing next season?

Jo is about to start a four year extension that rises to $70 million in its final year, and he just had the same meniscus surgery that hasn’t worked all the other times he had it. He only played 19 games last season, and looked very hurt in most of them. He is extremely damaged goods and starting a $250M extension.

If they can unload the entire value of Embiid’s contract, Morey has my utmost respect, but I don’t think there is a team that dumb. There are dumb GMs out there, but nobody that irresponsible. After seeing the Luca trade, almost nothing would surprise me, but this would do it.

[Arsenal]

It's delusional to think any team will take on Embiid right now before he proves he can get back on the court healthy. The only thing we could get in return right now is equally bad contracts, of which there are very few if any.

[the_process]

I’m not saying there wouldn’t be a desperate team willing to gamble, but not at a price point to get Morey to bite. At least not yet.

[76ciology]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

I don’t think anybody touches Embiid. Bynum and Kawhi were much lower risk than Jo. Both Kawhi and Bynum were in the last year of their contracts.

Here was a report when the Sixers acquired Bynum “There are, of course, questions about Bynum, namely his health and maturity. First, the health; in his seven years as a pro, Bynum has only played in a full 82 games once. From 2007 until 2011, he missed an average of 30 games due to knee problems. The knee problems were injuries, and not degenerative conditions. He was healthy and very productive in 2011-12, having his best season, scoring 18.7 points per game, grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game in 35.7 minutes per game. Bynum shot 56% from the floor and 70% from the free throw line.”

Bynum played 60 of 66 games in his last season with the Lakers. He missed only one game due to injury.

And with Kawhi, he was a pending free-agent. Even if he never played, it was a pretty low-risk trade. And they were confident he would play the next season. Is any team confident Jo is playing next season?

Jo is about to start a four year extension that rises to $70 million in its final year, and he just had the same meniscus surgery that hasn’t worked all the other times he had it. He only played 19 games last season, and looked very hurt in most of them. He is extremely damaged goods and starting a $250M extension.

If they can unload the entire value of Embiid’s contract, Morey has my utmost respect, but I don’t think there is a team that dumb. There are dumb GMs out there, but nobody that irresponsible. After seeing the Luca trade, almost nothing would surprise me, but this would do it.

The league is flooded with mid-level talent. Most of these middle-tier teams are sitting on a surplus of picks they can’t realistically use to trade for stars (why are the Pistons or the Kings not in the mix for the KD or Giannis sweepstakes?), and their cap space is usually ended up overpaying for mid players like Tobias, Greg Buckner or Kenny Thomas because no big names want to sign with them.

Yes, Embiid is a high-risk asset, but he’s also high reward. It’s a similar kind of gamble we made when we traded Iguodala. Different scale, same principle.. these teams have to take a swing like this if they want any shot at breaking into real contention.

[sixers hoops]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

I don’t think anybody touches Embiid. Bynum and Kawhi were much lower risk than Jo. Both Kawhi and Bynum were in the last year of their contracts.

Here was a report when the Sixers acquired Bynum “There are, of course, questions about Bynum, namely his health and maturity. First, the health; in his seven years as a pro, Bynum has only played in a full 82 games once. From 2007 until 2011, he missed an average of 30 games due to knee problems. The knee problems were injuries, and not degenerative conditions. He was healthy and very productive in 2011-12, having his best season, scoring 18.7 points per game, grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game in 35.7 minutes per game. Bynum shot 56% from the floor and 70% from the free throw line.”

Bynum played 60 of 66 games in his last season with the Lakers. He missed only one game due to injury.

And with Kawhi, he was a pending free-agent. Even if he never played, it was a pretty low-risk trade. And they were confident he would play the next season. Is any team confident Jo is playing next season?

Jo is about to start a four year extension that rises to $70 million in its final year, and he just had the same meniscus surgery that hasn’t worked all the other times he had it. He only played 19 games last season, and looked very hurt in most of them. He is extremely damaged goods and starting a $250M extension.

If they can unload the entire value of Embiid’s contract, Morey has my utmost respect, but I don’t think there is a team that dumb. There are dumb GMs out there, but nobody that irresponsible. After seeing the Luca trade, almost nothing would surprise me, but this would do it.

The league is flooded with mid-level talent. Most of these middle-tier teams are sitting on a surplus of picks they can’t realistically use to trade for stars (why are the Pistons or the Kings not in the mix for the KD or Giannis sweepstakes?), and their cap space is usually ended up overpaying for mid players like Tobias, Greg Buckner or Kenny Thomas because no big names want to sign with them.

Yes, Embiid is a high-risk asset, but he’s also high reward. It’s a similar kind of gamble we made when we traded Iguodala. Different scale, same principle.. these teams have to take a swing like this if they want any shot at breaking into real contention.

These teams aren’t taking a $250 million swing on a guy who doesn’t have any cartilage in his knees, and hasn’t looked healthy since two surgeries ago. And Embiid hasn’t made it passed a second-round series when relatively healthy, and a team is going to take a swing on him at this age to win a title?

There are some dumb GMs in the league, but trading for Joel Embiid, before seeing that he is actually healthy, would be malpractice. He is going to occupy 36% of your cap for the next four years, and your hope is that he becomes more successful as his injuries are getting worse.,

I hope you are right, but I don't know that it is possible. Maybe there is an organization that desperate, but I don’t see it. None of us know what another organization would do, but I don’t see anything until Embiid plays a half-season and looks healthy. And I don’t see that happening.

[Murray_17]

Yeah Embiid's contract is a Zach Lavine situation currently, which is also worse given the new CBA. Arguing against this seems to me like when people tried to convince themselves that we would get something valuable for Tobias.

If you compare the 3 guys on the moment of their trades and Current Embiid, Simmons is the most valuable because he still had high value, people thought he could still ve a valuable asset in the right setting and his injuries weren't in the open. His demand also coincided with Harden trying to get out, so it was a perfect storm.

Harden also had some value when he demanded a trade, mostly because of his contract situation.

So yeah, Simmons>>Harden>>Embiid

[the_process]

We don’t understand it because we’re so used to having Embiid, but there are teams out there willing to take a gamble on him, even with the injury concerns. Maybe their fans don’t but their management will. These are usually the mediocre teams looking for a high-risk, high-reward move to break out of mediocrity.

Think of when the Raptors traded DeRozan and a first for Kawhi, or when the Sixers moved Iguodala and a first for Bynum.

If the Embiid sweepstakes were happening right now and he’s viewed as a medical risk, I still think we could get a mid-tier player from a team like the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, Kings, Pelicans or Bulls, plus a first-round pick.

I don’t think anybody touches Embiid. Bynum and Kawhi were much lower risk than Jo. Both Kawhi and Bynum were in the last year of their contracts.

Here was a report when the Sixers acquired Bynum “There are, of course, questions about Bynum, namely his health and maturity. First, the health; in his seven years as a pro, Bynum has only played in a full 82 games once. From 2007 until 2011, he missed an average of 30 games due to knee problems. The knee problems were injuries, and not degenerative conditions. He was healthy and very productive in 2011-12, having his best season, scoring 18.7 points per game, grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game in 35.7 minutes per game. Bynum shot 56% from the floor and 70% from the free throw line.”

Bynum played 60 of 66 games in his last season with the Lakers. He missed only one game due to injury.

And with Kawhi, he was a pending free-agent. Even if he never played, it was a pretty low-risk trade. And they were confident he would play the next season. Is any team confident Jo is playing next season?

Jo is about to start a four year extension that rises to $70 million in its final year, and he just had the same meniscus surgery that hasn’t worked all the other times he had it. He only played 19 games last season, and looked very hurt in most of them. He is extremely damaged goods and starting a $250M extension.

If they can unload the entire value of Embiid’s contract, Morey has my utmost respect, but I don’t think there is a team that dumb. There are dumb GMs out there, but nobody that irresponsible. After seeing the Luca trade, almost nothing would surprise me, but this would do it.

The league is flooded with mid-level talent. Most of these middle-tier teams are sitting on a surplus of picks they can’t realistically use to trade for stars (why are the Pistons or the Kings not in the mix for the KD or Giannis sweepstakes?), and their cap space is usually ended up overpaying for mid players like Tobias, Greg Buckner or Kenny Thomas because no big names want to sign with them.

Yes, Embiid is a high-risk asset, but he’s also high reward. It’s a similar kind of gamble we made when we traded Iguodala. Different scale, same principle.. these teams have to take a swing like this if they want any shot at breaking into real contention.

While I don't disagree, they aren't moving the top shelf stuff to pay Joel 70M to sit at home and pound Shirley Temples in three years.

Would they throw random contracts plus maybe a pick? Sure, but Morey isn't taking that. He'd rather have the 1% chance Joel plays effectively.

Now if Joel misses another year and won't take a medical retirement, his math may change. Of course, other teams will be willing to risk even less at that point.

[youngcrev]

Ben > Harden > Embiid

Ben was still young coming off an All-NBA team and was under contract. Harden was older, known for his gag reflex, and had demanded a trade to only one team. Unless Embiid plays significant time everyone will assume he is damaged goods.

This.

Seems pretty clear cut to me.

[ProcessDoctor]

On Tuesday's episode of Get Up, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said there is "no trade market" for the two-time MVP as of right now because he hasn't asked to be moved and the Milwaukee Bucks are "not looking" to move him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25204449-giannis-reportedly-has-no-trade-market-bucks-not-looking-move-amid-nba-rumors

Jake Fischer and now Windy are reporting that Giannis probably stays. Bill Simmons believing KD to Spurs is a done deal.

Get ready for Morey to cook boys. Better start believing!

[the_process]

On Tuesday's episode of Get Up, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said there is "no trade market" for the two-time MVP as of right now because he hasn't asked to be moved and the Milwaukee Bucks are "not looking" to move him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25204449-giannis-reportedly-has-no-trade-market-bucks-not-looking-move-amid-nba-rumors

Jake Fischer and now Windy are reporting that Giannis probably stays. Bill Simmons believing KD to Spurs is a done deal.

Get ready for Morey to cook boys. Better start believing!

It'd sure be nice to see him cook after basically punting two years in a row.

[mjkvol]

On Tuesday's episode of Get Up, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said there is "no trade market" for the two-time MVP as of right now because he hasn't asked to be moved and the Milwaukee Bucks are "not looking" to move him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25204449-giannis-reportedly-has-no-trade-market-bucks-not-looking-move-amid-nba-rumors

Jake Fischer and now Windy are reporting that Giannis probably stays. Bill Simmons believing KD to Spurs is a done deal.

Get ready for Morey to cook boys. Better start believing!

Please define "cook". If it means what I think you mean, color me a non-believer.

[ProcessDoctor]

On Tuesday's episode of Get Up, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said there is "no trade market" for the two-time MVP as of right now because he hasn't asked to be moved and the Milwaukee Bucks are "not looking" to move him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25204449-giannis-reportedly-has-no-trade-market-bucks-not-looking-move-amid-nba-rumors

Jake Fischer and now Windy are reporting that Giannis probably stays. Bill Simmons believing KD to Spurs is a done deal.

Get ready for Morey to cook boys. Better start believing!

Please define "cook". If it means what I think you mean, color me a non-believer.

Morey's trade history is all public information. Make of it what you will.

[elchengue20]

Simmons > Harden > Embiid

Simmons was still a young player locked up for many years with a resume of All NBA/ All-Defense play. Nobody expected him to bo so broken mentally and phisically.

Harden was still a very good NBA player, while getting old still borderline All-Star and availavable, plus a great playmaker which is a valuable archetype. He has been a productive player for LA Clippers, i don't think they regret getting him.

Embiid at this point has a huge history of health issues, can't even stay on the floor, locked up for a long term extension into his mid 30's. On paper to me he's clearly the worst asset, at least right now. It can change quick tho if he's healthy again and starts next season playing well. But i'm not holding hope on that one.