2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Black Mage]

Does it concern anyone else that Rutgers only played three teams with top 50 DRtg and Ace's results were very bad for two of them?
Maryland- 24mins, 4pts, 2-4 FG, 4 reb, 2 stls, 3 to
Michigan State - 39mins, 18pts, 4-17 FG, 9 reb, 2 stls, 4 fouls, 3 to
UCLA - 38mins, 20pts, 7-13 FG, 10 reb, 1 stl, 3 blks

Everyone else was outside of the top 50 in DRtg. (This goes for Harper too who was worse in all three games, but we're not in the running for him).

No. It's truly a painful thing trying to watch a Rutgers game. I really don't know how Rutgers hasn't fired that entire staff. Almost every possession consisted of Harper or Ace having the ball facing 2 defenders and often it was 3 man triangles. Top of the triangle was the on ball defender; one guy split right to cut off a right hand drive, one guy split left to cut off the left hand drive. Ace sometimes was getting doubled even when off the ball, happened to Harper too but less often.

I know I harp on Jeremiah Williams, but there were possessions where he just stood in the corner 3 hole with no defender within 7-8 feet of him and he literally wasn't even looking to get the ball and didn't even try cutting. Other times he'd move around the arc and wasn't even followed by his defender who stayed near the paint.

Watching Texas, yes Tre got extra attention; but in a lot of Texas games their opponents at least semi-respected the other players and their defenders kept mostly within arms reach. Texas also did run off-ball sets to get Tre open looks.

That Rutgers situation was just so awful that I'm willing to gamble on Ace taking a huge leap with good teammates, spacing and scheme around him. IF we take him we might look back on this and think how in the world did the Spurs let Ace slide by (even if Harper is good) and we'll be thankful for Rutgers making him look pedestrian. Or, the gamble flops and you guys are reminding me how much I misread the Rutgers situation.

[Black Mage]

Honestly most of these guys have more bad games against top defenses than good games. I suppose that shouldn't be surprising, but if one guy really rose above the rest, it'd be kinda cool.

Curious, but how did Maxey and McCain stack up in similar games if you can look that up. I feel like McCain's the cold blooded assassin type. I still remember the game where he went nuclear from 3 and kept chirping back at the home team's fans.

[Black Mage]

I hate to break it to you, but Tre, Ace, and VJ are all flawed prospects. Its picking your poison at this point.

Flawed /=/ one-dimensional

I wouldn't say Tre is one dimensional. I'm not sure if I can necessarily put him above Ace or VJ, but he's definitely in the mix.

I see VJ as a guy that could be great at 3&D and transition.

I see Ace as a 3&D with good rebounding and middie game.

I see Tre with great middie game and 3 point shooting with secondary ball handling duties.

I think there's a good chance at least one of these guys develop into something more, just not sure who. I see Tre's lack of inside game less important than someone like Ace since he's a guard. And I feel defense can eventually be passable especially with his height and huge wingspan.

Basketball is 2 dimensions - offense and defense.

Tre is one dimensional in that he only cares and gives effort on one side of the Court.

[Black Mage]

I mean this is demonstratively false if looking at how many all stars did in terms of A/TO in college (Tatum, Cousins, already mentioned Murray). So I’ll respectfully disagree with you here.

Agreed given turnovers exponentially increase the closer to the basket you get. Queen's turnover rate given how much he handled and dribbled within the packed paint is actually quite good.

Yep, which is why in all of my Ace derangement, I’ve never brought up him having a .62 A/TO rate; didn’t find it important.

It's interesting in that Ace had a generally low turnover rate and it actually improved against Top 50 ranked teams. For a kid with loose handle and facing constant doubles and pressure coming from every angle on the floor I would have expected a turnover rate closer to that of KJ or Fears.

[Black Mage]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

You think Morey wants to wait until Ace figures out all his shortcomings? Jazz didn’t even give the people who pumped Cody Williams a full calendar year before frying them.

Goes both ways; take VJ and Ace has a ROY campaign and VJ is solid but not spectacular Morey is out. Trade down and end up getting a guy who doesn't move the needle and the pieces added don't get you into a deep playoff run, Morey is out.

Morey could get the pick right and it just take a year or two and he might not be around to see it. The PG and Joel signings are just an albatross that most GM's wouldn't survive.

I just don’t see the 3rd pick being a guy that needs multiple years to figure it out. Cody, like Ace, was a pick based on some kind of hope that he’s going to grow into his game when that has rarely been the case, even going back to the straight from HS days. NBA teams have limited patience for even top 3 picks; why bet on a guy who lacks in so many aspects of the game at the collegiate level?

Just go back over the last 4-5 drafts. Very few 3rd overall picks or those coming thereafter were established level players within a year or two of their draft slot. It's not like the old days where Top 3 picks are Sophomores, Juniors or Seniors. These are kids essentially and it feels like they're coming out younger than ever before. Most of them are still a few years away from having their expected NBA bodies.

[Stanford]

Basketball is 2 dimensions - offense and defense.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that's what anyone means when they say one-dimensional. Tyrese Haliburton doesn't play any defense. Is he one dimensional?

[Black Mage]

Basketball is 2 dimensions - offense and defense.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that's what anyone means when they say one-dimensional. Tyrese Haliburton doesn't play any defense. Is he one dimensional?

Good point, but I think someone changed what was being discussed as Tre being a "one-way" player and calling it dimensional so I ran with it. Apologies to the poster if I mistook where they were going with the comment. Tre is NOT one dimensional as a shooter if that helps.

[Negrodamus]

Honestly most of these guys have more bad games against top defenses than good games. I suppose that shouldn't be surprising, but if one guy really rose above the rest, it'd be kinda cool.

Curious, but how did Maxey and McCain stack up in similar games if you can look that up. I feel like McCain's the cold blooded assassin type. I still remember the game where he went nuclear from 3 and kept chirping back at the home team's fans.

McCain:

Houston (#1) - 40mins, 7pts, 3-6FG, 4ast, 6reb, 4TO
JMU - 31min, 30pt, 10-15FG, 8-11 3FG, 5reb
Vermont - 34min, 15pt, 4-9FG, 6reb, 3ast, 2TO
UNC - 38min, 19pts, 6-12 FG, 5-5FT, 7reb, 2ast, 3TO
UVA - 31min, 7pts, 3-8FG, 6reb, 2stls
UNC - 38min, 23pts, 9-18FG, 11reb, 2stl, 1TO
Arizona- 29min, 9pts, 3-8FG, 4reb, 5ast, 3stl, 3TO

Mich St was just outside 50 and he got completely shut down, as in 0 points. That was 3rd game of the season. The list above is in reverse order starting with the tourney. Seems better than most of these prospects this year. Btw, what an animal rebounding the ball at his size. Good grief.

[Stanford]

McCain is HIM!

[Negrodamus]

Goes both ways; take VJ and Ace has a ROY campaign and VJ is solid but not spectacular Morey is out. Trade down and end up getting a guy who doesn't move the needle and the pieces added don't get you into a deep playoff run, Morey is out.

Morey could get the pick right and it just take a year or two and he might not be around to see it. The PG and Joel signings are just an albatross that most GM's wouldn't survive.

I just don’t see the 3rd pick being a guy that needs multiple years to figure it out. Cody, like Ace, was a pick based on some kind of hope that he’s going to grow into his game when that has rarely been the case, even going back to the straight from HS days. NBA teams have limited patience for even top 3 picks; why bet on a guy who lacks in so many aspects of the game at the collegiate level?

Just go back over the last 4-5 drafts. Very few 3rd overall picks or those coming thereafter were established level players within a year or two of their draft slot. It's not like the old days where Top 3 picks are Sophomores, Juniors or Seniors. These are kids essentially and it feels like they're coming out younger than ever before. Most of them are still a few years away from having their expected NBA bodies.

I should have qualified that statement, any SUCCESSFUL top 3 pick doesn't require time. I'll even extend it to top ten; I'm trying to think of any guys who required a year or two to add aspects of their game that they didn't have in college.

I feel like in most cases, the college numbers give a good snapshot of what to expect, to an extent, of what type of player they'll be in the NBA. Haliburton is not a foul drawer. SGA isn't a flamethrower from three. Obviously there are guys who overcome insufficiencies in their game, but largely guys don't become big distributors, ball handlers, foul drawers, etc once they get to the next level.

[Negrodamus]

Maxey:

Mich State: 32mins, 26pt, 7-12 FG, 9-10 FT, 5reb, 1ast, 1stl
Georgia Tech: 38min, 6pts, 0-9 FG, 6-6 FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2stl, 3TO
Louisville: 40min, 27pts, 9-14 FG, 7reb, 1ast, 1stl, 3TO
Texas Tech: 40min, 7pts, 2-10 FG, 3ast, 3reb, 1stl, 5TO

Must be said this was COVID year, so he would have had more opportunities to play other top 50 DRtg teams but they cut it short.

Two nuke games, two duds.

[Kobblehead]

I'll gladly take Cody Williams off their hands, if they want to write him off as a bust after 50 NBA games.

Would you do #5 + Cody Williams for #3?

I definitely would.

Cody has that 5 star pedigree and a phenomenal 7'1" wingspan.

I'm willing to give him time to gain strength and figure out how to play basketball.

[Negrodamus]

Kasparas:

Maryland: 29min, 15pts, 4-10FG, 6-6FT, 10 reb, 4 ast, 6TO
Duke: 32min, 14pts, 4-10, 0-4 3FG, 6-6FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2TO, 2blk
Mich State: 38min, 17pts, 5-15 FG, 5-5FT, 5reb, 2 TO
UCLA: 37min, 24pts, 8-14 FG, 8reb, 4ast, 5TO
Maryland: 36min, 21pts, 5-14 FG, 11-12FT, 7reb, 7ast, 7 TO
Mich State: 9min (got injured, where the season goes downhill for him)
Tennessee: 37min, 22pts, 5-15 FG, 10-14FT, 3reb, 2ast, 7 TO
Little Rock: 28min, 21pts, 5-9FG, 8-8 FT, 5ast, 6reb, 3stl
SIU -Edwardsville: 32min, 12pts, 1-3FG, 9-10FT, 13 ast, 8 reb, 3TO

Did this in reverse order starting with tourney again. TO machine, but he always found ways to impact the game. Are we sure he's not a top 5 talent? Also, the small school teams can be disregarded if you don't want to trust those games.

[the_process]

I'll gladly take Cody Williams off their hands, if they want to write him off as a bust after 50 NBA games.

Would you do #5 + Cody Williams for #3?

Jazz add 21, and take back Drummond and Gordon, and I’m in.

[Black Mage]

I just don’t see the 3rd pick being a guy that needs multiple years to figure it out. Cody, like Ace, was a pick based on some kind of hope that he’s going to grow into his game when that has rarely been the case, even going back to the straight from HS days. NBA teams have limited patience for even top 3 picks; why bet on a guy who lacks in so many aspects of the game at the collegiate level?

Just go back over the last 4-5 drafts. Very few 3rd overall picks or those coming thereafter were established level players within a year or two of their draft slot. It's not like the old days where Top 3 picks are Sophomores, Juniors or Seniors. These are kids essentially and it feels like they're coming out younger than ever before. Most of them are still a few years away from having their expected NBA bodies.

I should have qualified that statement, any SUCCESSFUL top 3 pick doesn't require time. I'll even extend it to top ten; I'm trying to think of any guys who required a year or two to add aspects of their game that they didn't have in college.

I feel like in most cases, the college numbers give a good snapshot of what to expect, to an extent, of what type of player they'll be in the NBA. Haliburton is not a foul drawer. SGA isn't a flamethrower from three. Obviously there are guys who overcome insufficiencies in their game, but largely guys don't become big distributors, ball handlers, foul drawers, etc once they get to the next level.

Going to do my best to respond b/c we may not see the same insufficiencies; so I'll focus on guys who polished up their game a year or two into the pros.

2010: PG
2012: Beal
2013: Oladipo, Porter (pre-injury), McCollum
2014: Randle, Gordon,
2016: Brown, Poetl, Murray,
2017: Tatum, Fox, Markkanen,
2018: JJJ
2019: Barrett
2020: Toppin.

I'll definitely give you there's a lot of misses in the Top 10; but that's the same for every year and it's not easy to get Top 2 in any draft. We could tank all next year (I even suggested this in our threads back in November) and get a top1-3 odds and still end up like the Jazz or Wizards and miss out on what we think right now is a loaded draft.

Jump back to last October and all of us were like oh man, it's a Top 3 heavy draft with nice pieces behind that. And here we are ripping to shreds every option at 3. It's just as likely that next year it's a 2 man draft. Very rarely do you get those Lebron drafts where it's Bron, Wade, Melo and Bosh.

[Black Mage]

Kasparas:

Maryland: 29min, 15pts, 4-10FG, 6-6FT, 10 reb, 4 ast, 6TO
Duke: 32min, 14pts, 4-10, 0-4 3FG, 6-6FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2TO, 2blk
Mich State: 38min, 17pts, 5-15 FG, 5-5FT, 5reb, 2 TO
UCLA: 37min, 24pts, 8-14 FG, 8reb, 4ast, 5TO
Maryland: 36min, 21pts, 5-14 FG, 11-12FT, 7reb, 7ast, 7 TO
Mich State: 9min (got injured, where the season goes downhill for him)
Tennessee: 37min, 22pts, 5-15 FG, 10-14FT, 3reb, 2ast, 7 TO
Little Rock: 28min, 21pts, 5-9FG, 8-8 FT, 5ast, 6reb, 3stl
SIU -Edwardsville: 32min, 12pts, 1-3FG, 9-10FT, 13 ast, 8 reb, 3TO

Did this in reverse order starting with tourney again. TO machine, but he always found ways to impact the game. Are we sure he's not a top 5 talent? Also, the small school teams can be disregarded if you don't want to trust those games.

The way I see small school games is you almost have to beat up on them if you play a full 30 something minutes. If you flounder against that kind of competition it's a concern.

Kasparas strikes me as a guy like Haliburton. Not great measurables, concerns with speed, but got up the stats. Except with Haliburton we had 2 years to see the "growth" happen. If Kasparas went back and cut down on his TO's and upped his 3pt shot he'd probably be in talks for a Top 5 or 6 pick next year easily.

[Black Mage]

I'll gladly take Cody Williams off their hands, if they want to write him off as a bust after 50 NBA games.

Would you do #5 + Cody Williams for #3?

Jazz add 21, and take back Drummond and Gordon, and I’m in.

I'd probably consider it as long as 21 is in the deal. I want a shot one of Fleming, Coward, Clifford.

[76ciology]

Kasparas:

Maryland: 29min, 15pts, 4-10FG, 6-6FT, 10 reb, 4 ast, 6TO
Duke: 32min, 14pts, 4-10, 0-4 3FG, 6-6FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2TO, 2blk
Mich State: 38min, 17pts, 5-15 FG, 5-5FT, 5reb, 2 TO
UCLA: 37min, 24pts, 8-14 FG, 8reb, 4ast, 5TO
Maryland: 36min, 21pts, 5-14 FG, 11-12FT, 7reb, 7ast, 7 TO
Mich State: 9min (got injured, where the season goes downhill for him)
Tennessee: 37min, 22pts, 5-15 FG, 10-14FT, 3reb, 2ast, 7 TO
Little Rock: 28min, 21pts, 5-9FG, 8-8 FT, 5ast, 6reb, 3stl
SIU -Edwardsville: 32min, 12pts, 1-3FG, 9-10FT, 13 ast, 8 reb, 3TO

Did this in reverse order starting with tourney again. TO machine, but he always found ways to impact the game. Are we sure he's not a top 5 talent? Also, the small school teams can be disregarded if you don't want to trust those games.

Top 3 talent hiding in plain sight.

[Negrodamus]

Kasparas:

Maryland: 29min, 15pts, 4-10FG, 6-6FT, 10 reb, 4 ast, 6TO
Duke: 32min, 14pts, 4-10, 0-4 3FG, 6-6FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2TO, 2blk
Mich State: 38min, 17pts, 5-15 FG, 5-5FT, 5reb, 2 TO
UCLA: 37min, 24pts, 8-14 FG, 8reb, 4ast, 5TO
Maryland: 36min, 21pts, 5-14 FG, 11-12FT, 7reb, 7ast, 7 TO
Mich State: 9min (got injured, where the season goes downhill for him)
Tennessee: 37min, 22pts, 5-15 FG, 10-14FT, 3reb, 2ast, 7 TO
Little Rock: 28min, 21pts, 5-9FG, 8-8 FT, 5ast, 6reb, 3stl
SIU -Edwardsville: 32min, 12pts, 1-3FG, 9-10FT, 13 ast, 8 reb, 3TO

Did this in reverse order starting with tourney again. TO machine, but he always found ways to impact the game. Are we sure he's not a top 5 talent? Also, the small school teams can be disregarded if you don't want to trust those games.

The way I see small school games is you almost have to beat up on them if you play a full 30 something minutes. If you flounder against that kind of competition it's a concern.

Kasparas strikes me as a guy like Haliburton. Not great measurables, concerns with speed, but got up the stats. Except with Haliburton we had 2 years to see the "growth" happen. If Kasparas went back and cut down on his TO's and upped his 3pt shot he'd probably be in talks for a Top 5 or 6 pick next year easily.

It’s funny because that’s exactly how I feel about Ace even though it’s inconceivable to think he’d go back to school. He transfers to Kentucky, becomes a mega analytical darling, high AST% with promising foul drawing and an 80+ FT% and I’m ready to draft him top 3. Assuming he’s freshman year PG at Fresno is such an unbelievable risk at 3.

[76ciology]

Maxey:

Mich State: 32mins, 26pt, 7-12 FG, 9-10 FT, 5reb, 1ast, 1stl
Georgia Tech: 38min, 6pts, 0-9 FG, 6-6 FT, 7reb, 6ast, 2stl, 3TO
Louisville: 40min, 27pts, 9-14 FG, 7reb, 1ast, 1stl, 3TO
Texas Tech: 40min, 7pts, 2-10 FG, 3ast, 3reb, 1stl, 5TO

Must be said this was COVID year, so he would have had more opportunities to play other top 50 DRtg teams but they cut it short.

Two nuke games, two duds.

Maxey was, at best, a mediocre prospect at the time. But given he was projected to go 13th and slid all the way to 21, the risk was worth it. He had some strong indicators, his high school pedigree, confidence & motor from the eye test, excellent FT%, and favorable height-to-wingspan ratio.

Here’s an unpopular take, I think he was drafted more as a trade asset for Harden, than as a foundational #2 guy. If I remember correctly, Morey even mentioned in a few interviews that he didn’t expect Maxey to be this good. He’s still a work in progress.