Boston/ Sacramento Realism Check

[BK_2020]

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

Boston Why:
They have no idea what Tatum will be like when he comes back and won't know until the end of 26-27 season to be entirely realistic. There's no point in keeping the team together and pay $200 million in repeater tax for two purgatory years only for Tatum to return to a supporting cast that's aged out and bad. They need to pull the trigger now on a rebuild if they don't want to end up like the Suns.
The first domino has to be their biggest and the most punishing contract. Sending Brown out is the ultimate goal. It really doesn't matter who they get back, as long as it's not PG13. Sabonis is not that great but also not bad, and signed for three more years at less than 30% of the cap. He can be a useful piece of the next contending roster or be the salary that brings in the next piece.

Kings Why:
They get rid of an unhappy star for an All-Star who can drive their offense and take them to the playoffs. As a bonus, Brown went to Cal and likes the area. A follow up trade of Derozan may be necessary. The Kings have shown that they prioritize simply making the playoffs over higher variance outcomes.

A rare trade where both sides come out winners.

[One_and_Done]

Terrible for Boston. Jaylen is just much better. If Jaylen goes I'd rather good draft picks and a young stud.

[BK_2020]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

[hugepatsfan]

You're right that SAC prioritizes trying to make the playoffs and to do that you need an offensive engine. Sabonis>Brown in that role, so I don't see them valuing this swap.

I think Brown's archetype can fit on a truly competitive team (obviously, he won a finals MVP lol) whereas I don't think Sabonis' does, but SAC isn't t a truly competitive team and that's not a practical goal for them.

[redslastlaugh]

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

This is an interesting idea in a vacuum. But given Sabonis also has a huge contract and given the C's at present want to lean into a 3pt shooting offense, I think a Brown-Sabonis deal would be a no-go from Boston side because it doesn't advance any of Boston front office's objectives,

If it was White + Jrue for Sabonis, it would atleast produce financial savings.

[One_and_Done]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

[BK_2020]

You're right that SAC prioritizes trying to make the playoffs and to do that you need an offensive engine. Sabonis>Brown in that role, so I don't see them valuing this swap.

I think Brown's archetype can fit on a truly competitive team (obviously, he won a finals MVP lol) whereas I don't think Sabonis' does, but SAC isn't t a truly competitive team and that's not a practical goal for them.

Sabonis requires a second big who can cover for him which the Kings don't have. And honestly there's no realistic options for them because 2-way rim protecting forwards who aren't completely useless on offense are stars like Tatum, Mobley and AD. Brown simplifies the roster-construction issue. They just need a rim protecting big and a point guard.

[BK_2020]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

I think the idea is Sabonis allows for an immediate $10 million saving and is an easier contract to move later for the 2nd star when and if Tatum returns to 100%. I don't think Boston is gonna win a ton of games in the next two years.

[One_and_Done]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

I think the idea is Sabonis allows for an immediate $10 million saving and is an easier contract to move later for the 2nd star when and if Tatum returns to 100%. I don't think Boston is gonna win a ton of games in the next two years.

All the more reason to go for young players and picks, not overrated players on big contracts. No team with contender aspirations should want Sabonis. He limits your ceiling in the PS and is an awkward fit. Brown is so much better than him it's not funny.

[BK_2020]

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

This is an interesting idea in a vacuum. But given Sabonis also has a huge contract and given the C's at present want to lean into a 3pt shooting offense,

And this is a hidden benefit. Joe Mazzulla will have to prove that he can really coach. If Joe can't adjust and make a scheme for a flawed talent, then maybe Tatum should come back to a different coach. There's very little chance we will see another team without any weaknesses as the 23-24 team did.

[redslastlaugh]

Leaving aside if C's coaches can be creative with the gameplan outside of just winning 3pt attempts, the new owners have private equity investors to please and they won't trade JB for a salary coming back this big. It's just too much money imo. If JB goes the money coming back will be way less than this, again in my opinion

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

This is an interesting idea in a vacuum. But given Sabonis also has a huge contract and given the C's at present want to lean into a 3pt shooting offense,

And this is a hidden benefit. Joe Mazzulla will have to prove that he can really coach. If Joe can't adjust and make a scheme for a flawed talent, then maybe Tatum should come back to a different coach. There's very little chance we will see another team without any weaknesses as the 23-24 team did.

[BK_2020]

Leaving aside if C's coaches can be creative with the gameplan outside of just winning 3pt attempts, the new owners have private equity investors to please and they won't trade JB for a salary coming back this big. It's just too much money imo. If JB goes the money coming back will be way less than this, again in my opinion

This is an interesting idea in a vacuum. But given Sabonis also has a huge contract and given the C's at present want to lean into a 3pt shooting offense,

And this is a hidden benefit. Joe Mazzulla will have to prove that he can really coach. If Joe can't adjust and make a scheme for a flawed talent, then maybe Tatum should come back to a different coach. There's very little chance we will see another team without any weaknesses as the 23-24 team did.

Perhaps, but I think you underestimate how drastic the money difference is between Brown and Sabonis. It's $100 million.

[brackdan70]

The Celtics really only face one year of 200 million plus repeater penalties (25/26). They can easily get under the higher tiers in 26/27 and with a bit of shaving get under the tax altogether.
As far as the trade goes I think it’s probably a fair value. Maybe Sac adds…IDK.
As a Boston fanboy I wouldn’t do it though. I like what Brown brings to the table a lot more than Sabonis. That said I don’t know how POBO Stevens would view it. They do save a bit over 10 million next year and 11.5 million the year after and going forward so that’s something.

[brackdan70]

Leaving aside if C's coaches can be creative with the gameplan outside of just winning 3pt attempts, the new owners have private equity investors to please and they won't trade JB for a salary coming back this big. It's just too much money imo. If JB goes the money coming back will be way less than this, again in my opinion

And this is a hidden benefit. Joe Mazzulla will have to prove that he can really coach. If Joe can't adjust and make a scheme for a flawed talent, then maybe Tatum should come back to a different coach. There's very little chance we will see another team without any weaknesses as the 23-24 team did.

Perhaps, but I think you underestimate how drastic the money difference is between Brown and Sabonis. It's $100 million.

Well 64 million of that is an additional season. Brown will be 32 yo and still likely an all star level player. By then that 64 million will not be a top 30 annual salary. I view the extra year of Browns contract as a plus not a minus.

[BK_2020]

The Celtics really only face one year of 200 million plus repeater penalties (25/26). They can easily get under the higher tiers in 26/27 and with a bit of shaving get under the tax altogether.
As far as the trade goes I think it’s probably a fair value. Maybe Sac adds…IDK.
As a Boston fanboy I wouldn’t do it though. I like what Brown brings to the table a lot more than Sabonis. That said I don’t know how POBO Stevens would view it. They do save a bit over 10 million next year and 11.5 million the year after and going forward so that’s something.

Sabonis is also more tradeable if Tatum shows enough for Brad or the next PoBo to pull the trigger on another contending window. Luka, for example, might be available, in 2027. But for Boston, it doesn't have to be Sabonis. It can be any reasonably young and cheaper option, maybe Boston can take Allen and Hunter from Cleveland for Brown, maybe add a Pritchard for Okoro swap as an incentive. I just think Sacramento is a good destination for Jaylen Brown.

[djFan71]

You have to really believe that Tatum won't be fully back until the 27-28 season, which I don't.

There are lesser moves to duck the 2nd apron and lessen the tax burden next year to enable a quicker reset for contention in 26-27 with Brown. He's not untradeable or anything, but I would would suspect it takes a really good return to get Brad to move him.

[mcfly1204]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

Having a tendency to dribble the ball off one's foot is not a flaw?

[One_and_Done]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

Having a tendency to dribble the ball off one's foot is not a flaw?

Not if he's not your #1 guy on offense. Jaylen fits everywhere, and can be the best guy on a title team (albeit an ensemble cast). Sabonis kills you in the PS. You deploy Jaylen in an intelligent way and you're fine. He was also not 100% healthy this season.

[BK_2020]

You have to really believe that Tatum won't be fully back until the 27-28 season, which I don't.

There are lesser moves to duck the 2nd apron and lessen the tax burden next year to enable a quicker reset for contention in 26-27 with Brown. He's not untradeable or anything, but I would would suspect it takes a really good return to get Brad to move him.

I think he's back by the start of 26-27 (hopefully they don't let him come back earlier) but we won't know if he's the 1st-team All-NBA Tatum until the end of 26-27 season. Achilles is just on another difficulty level compared to something like the ACL.

[fallguy]

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

Boston Why:
They have no idea what Tatum will be like when he comes back and won't know until the end of 26-27 season to be entirely realistic. There's no point in keeping the team together and pay $200 million in repeater tax for two purgatory years only for Tatum to return to a supporting cast that's aged out and bad. They need to pull the trigger now on a rebuild if they don't want to end up like the Suns.
The first domino has to be their biggest and the most punishing contract. Sending Brown out is the ultimate goal. It really doesn't matter who they get back, as long as it's not PG13. Sabonis is not that great but also not bad, and signed for three more years at less than 30% of the cap. He can be a useful piece of the next contending roster or be the salary that brings in the next piece.

Kings Why:
They get rid of an unhappy star for an All-Star who can drive their offense and take them to the playoffs. As a bonus, Brown went to Cal and likes the area. A follow up trade of Derozan may be necessary. The Kings have shown that they prioritize simply making the playoffs over higher variance outcomes.

A rare trade where both sides come out winners.

Where have you been??