Boston/ Sacramento Realism Check

[fallguy]

I don't like Sabonis at all. He requires you to contort your roster given his limitations on both sides of the ball. And he's not good enough to do that.

[brackdan70]

I would rather good draft picks and someone like Victor Wembanyama, too, but I'm being realistic. Sabonis and Brown are flawed players, with Brown being somewhat more valuable because of his position and player archetype. However, Brown's salary is absolute cancer to a 2nd apron team like Boston but easily absorbed by the Kings. It stands to reason that they are good trade partners.

Brown isn't flawed, he just lacks certain skills. None of his 'flaws' are exploitable or ceiling limiting in the way Sabonis' flaws are. Boston should move other players before they move Jaylen, and if they have to move Jaylen this isn't the solution.

Having a tendency to dribble the ball off one's foot is not a flaw?

2.6 TOPG last year. 2.4 the year before. he has a bit of a loose handle but this narrative is overstated for a high usage guy.

[djFan71]

You have to really believe that Tatum won't be fully back until the 27-28 season, which I don't.

There are lesser moves to duck the 2nd apron and lessen the tax burden next year to enable a quicker reset for contention in 26-27 with Brown. He's not untradeable or anything, but I would would suspect it takes a really good return to get Brad to move him.

I think he's back by the start of 26-27 (hopefully they don't let him come back earlier) but we won't know if he's the 1st-team All-NBA Tatum until the end of 26-27 season. Achilles is just on another difficulty level compared to something like the ACL.

I think you plan have to have a team around in 26-27 to compete in case he is back to that level for the playoffs, though.

If you're going to go ultra-conservative and duck the tax 2 years and focus on 27-28 already, then you almost look at trading everybody else. Pritchard's the youngest of the rotation guys and even he'll be 30 by the 28 playoffs. Brown, White, everyone should be available.

[Texas Chuck]

I don't like Sabonis at all. He requires you to contort your roster given his limitations on both sides of the ball. And he's not good enough to do that.

What are his offensive limitations? He's a dominant scorer, a great passer, a great rebounder, and can shoot with range though he's not asked to do it at volume currently.

I don't think its all accurate to talk about offensive limitations, not serious ones. Defense, okay, we know he's a below average defensive center and that is an issue, though with Boston's perimeter defenders its less of a problem than it would be almost anywhere else.

Note: I'm not asking you to like the trade. Just disagreeing pretty strongly with any idea that Sabonis is a limited offensive player. I mean we have to call just about every center short of Jokic limited if we are saying that about Sabo.

[BK_2020]

You have to really believe that Tatum won't be fully back until the 27-28 season, which I don't.

There are lesser moves to duck the 2nd apron and lessen the tax burden next year to enable a quicker reset for contention in 26-27 with Brown. He's not untradeable or anything, but I would would suspect it takes a really good return to get Brad to move him.

I think he's back by the start of 26-27 (hopefully they don't let him come back earlier) but we won't know if he's the 1st-team All-NBA Tatum until the end of 26-27 season. Achilles is just on another difficulty level compared to something like the ACL.

I think you plan have to have a team around in 26-27 to compete in case he is back to that level for the playoffs, though.

If you're going to go ultra-conservative and duck the tax 2 years and focus on 27-28 already, then you almost look at trading everybody else. Pritchard's the youngest of the rotation guys and even he'll be 30 by the 28 playoffs. Brown, White, everyone should be available.

It would be ideal to have only one reset season but I don't think that's realistic as we need to reset the repeater tax. We'll probably need to cut $42 million from essentially 7 players to get there. I don't think we can find trades that will bring back a net -$42 million just from trading Jrue, Hauser, and Porzingis. Maybe an aggressive trade for Jrue and waive and stretch of Porzingis can get us there, but I don't think Brown is a good enough player to justify that level of financial manipulations to save. It's simpler to just trade Brown to achieve the necessary benchmarks.

[BK_2020]

I don't like Sabonis at all. He requires you to contort your roster given his limitations on both sides of the ball. And he's not good enough to do that.

What are his offensive limitations? He's a dominant scorer, a great passer, a great rebounder, and can shoot with range though he's not asked to do it at volume currently.

I don't think its all accurate to talk about offensive limitations, not serious ones. Defense, okay, we know he's a below average defensive center and that is an issue, though with Boston's perimeter defenders its less of a problem than it would be almost anywhere else.

Note: I'm not asking you to like the trade. Just disagreeing pretty strongly with any idea that Sabonis is a limited offensive player. I mean we have to call just about every center short of Jokic limited if we are saying that about Sabo.

Although I envision Sabonis as a tradeable asset in this scenario, Tatum with his rim protection would be the one star who could cover up for Sabonis's shortcomings on defense, and Sabonis would help the Celtics chronically poor rebounding.

[Astaluego]

I would call the Hawks first, maybe they want their homegrown star, and the Hawks can provide a package of good young players + savings that would extend Boston's window. Risacher/OO/Mann +13 for JBrown +28. Boston turns anything it touches into gold, I wouldn't be surprised if Risacher becomes a star there, Okongwu becomes the new Horford, and Mann shoots 3s at 40%. Also, I think Sabonis doesn't fit at all with the Celtics, where they prioritize defense...
In addition, doing a 3x1 is a saving in itself, since they could do without other players with high salaries, without creating gaps.

[babyjax13]

I've thought about a similar deal with Lauri. I prefer Lauri to Brown, but I doubt our FO does, and I also doubt that would be the consensus. Boston would save $7 million and we could also take Hauser into our MLE and make it $18 million. I'm not sure if that is enough to let them keep their team together, otherwise. We could also send Johnny Juzang if they want a 9th/10th man bench sniper who is cheap. I like him but he is nothing special (and not as good as Hauser).

[djFan71]

I think he's back by the start of 26-27 (hopefully they don't let him come back earlier) but we won't know if he's the 1st-team All-NBA Tatum until the end of 26-27 season. Achilles is just on another difficulty level compared to something like the ACL.

I think you plan have to have a team around in 26-27 to compete in case he is back to that level for the playoffs, though.

If you're going to go ultra-conservative and duck the tax 2 years and focus on 27-28 already, then you almost look at trading everybody else. Pritchard's the youngest of the rotation guys and even he'll be 30 by the 28 playoffs. Brown, White, everyone should be available.

It would be ideal to have only one reset season but I don't think that's realistic as we need to reset the repeater tax. We'll probably need to cut $42 million from essentially 7 players to get there. I don't think we can find trades that will bring back a net -$42 million just from trading Jrue, Hauser, and Porzingis. Maybe an aggressive trade for Jrue and waive and stretch of Porzingis can get us there, but I don't think Brown is a good enough player to justify that level of financial manipulations to save. It's simpler to just trade Brown to achieve the necessary benchmarks.

That's the other point I diverge on. I don't think we do need to reset the repeater. You can manage the tax load instead. I have a "Don't Fear The Repea(te)r" thread on the Cs board about it. Partially cuz I just wanted to use the title. But, also to explore that option.

[djFan71]

I would call the Hawks first, maybe they want their homegrown star, and the Hawks can provide a package of good young players + savings that would extend Boston's window. Risacher/OO/Mann +13 for JBrown +28. Boston turns anything it touches into gold, I wouldn't be surprised if Risacher becomes a star there, Okongwu becomes the new Horford, and Mann shoots 3s at 40%. Also, I think Sabonis doesn't fit at all with the Celtics, where they prioritize defense...
In addition, doing a 3x1 is a saving in itself, since they could do without other players with high salaries, without creating gaps.

If BOS were to do it, this is the route I'd go as well. I think I proposed almost that exact deal. I like your high level outcomes from it.

[fallguy]

I don't like Sabonis at all. He requires you to contort your roster given his limitations on both sides of the ball. And he's not good enough to do that.

What are his offensive limitations? He's a dominant scorer, a great passer, a great rebounder, and can shoot with range though he's not asked to do it at volume currently.

I don't think its all accurate to talk about offensive limitations, not serious ones. Defense, okay, we know he's a below average defensive center and that is an issue, though with Boston's perimeter defenders its less of a problem than it would be almost anywhere else.

Note: I'm not asking you to like the trade. Just disagreeing pretty strongly with any idea that Sabonis is a limited offensive player. I mean we have to call just about every center short of Jokic limited if we are saying that about Sabo.

Yeah, I mean, we don't disagree a ton. I don't believe in the shooting percentages at volume which I think you have to have at this point and at that salary. And while his playoff resume isn't exactly long, his last time through he averaged 16.4 points a game. I think he's very guardable and far from a dominant scorer, especially in the spring.

(Also I basically agree that the vast majority of centres are very limited offensive players - one reason I don't want to spend big money on them).

[BK_2020]

I think you plan have to have a team around in 26-27 to compete in case he is back to that level for the playoffs, though.

If you're going to go ultra-conservative and duck the tax 2 years and focus on 27-28 already, then you almost look at trading everybody else. Pritchard's the youngest of the rotation guys and even he'll be 30 by the 28 playoffs. Brown, White, everyone should be available.

It would be ideal to have only one reset season but I don't think that's realistic as we need to reset the repeater tax. We'll probably need to cut $42 million from essentially 7 players to get there. I don't think we can find trades that will bring back a net -$42 million just from trading Jrue, Hauser, and Porzingis. Maybe an aggressive trade for Jrue and waive and stretch of Porzingis can get us there, but I don't think Brown is a good enough player to justify that level of financial manipulations to save. It's simpler to just trade Brown to achieve the necessary benchmarks.

That's the other point I diverge on. I don't think we do need to reset the repeater. You can manage the tax load instead. I have a "Don't Fear The Repea(te)r" thread on the Cs board about it. Partially cuz I just wanted to use the title. But, also to explore that option.

That might be an option but again, I don't think the team around Tatum is or was ever good enough to warrant spending assets or compromising Tatum's ages 30-34 seasons (his 4th contract) to keep together as a core. They are already old, and will be 2 years older. In a vacuum it might be worth keeping them, but for me they aren't good enough nor irreplaceable to hold on to at the expense of resetting the tax and restocking the war chest. Brad has an unprecedented opportunity to reset the roster for the future without repercussions. He should seize that opportunity rather than cling to Brown and White at all cost.

[Astaluego]

I've thought about a similar deal with Lauri. I prefer Lauri to Brown, but I doubt our FO does, and I also doubt that would be the consensus. Boston would save $7 million and we could also take Hauser into our MLE and make it $18 million. I'm not sure if that is enough to let them keep their team together, otherwise. We could also send Johnny Juzang if they want a 9th/10th man bench sniper who is cheap. I like him but he is nothing special (and not as good as Hauser).

Do you prefer Lauri to Brown on the court? I think they're in different stratospheres: Athletics, Defense... I don't know. I can't imagine any scenario where Lauri could win the Finals MVP.

[babyjax13]

I've thought about a similar deal with Lauri. I prefer Lauri to Brown, but I doubt our FO does, and I also doubt that would be the consensus. Boston would save $7 million and we could also take Hauser into our MLE and make it $18 million. I'm not sure if that is enough to let them keep their team together, otherwise. We could also send Johnny Juzang if they want a 9th/10th man bench sniper who is cheap. I like him but he is nothing special (and not as good as Hauser).

Do you prefer Lauri to Brown on the court? I think they're in different stratospheres: Athletics, Defense... I don't know. I can't imagine any scenario where Lauri could win the Finals MVP.

Yes, I prefer Lauri on the court. His off-ball movement and shooting gravity, IMO, makes him a better complimentary player. I think Lauri's 22-23 and 23-24 are both better seasons (during the RS) than Brown has ever had, but Brown has more good seasons than Lauri and obviously has that finals run.

[djFan71]

It would be ideal to have only one reset season but I don't think that's realistic as we need to reset the repeater tax. We'll probably need to cut $42 million from essentially 7 players to get there. I don't think we can find trades that will bring back a net -$42 million just from trading Jrue, Hauser, and Porzingis. Maybe an aggressive trade for Jrue and waive and stretch of Porzingis can get us there, but I don't think Brown is a good enough player to justify that level of financial manipulations to save. It's simpler to just trade Brown to achieve the necessary benchmarks.

That's the other point I diverge on. I don't think we do need to reset the repeater. You can manage the tax load instead. I have a "Don't Fear The Repea(te)r" thread on the Cs board about it. Partially cuz I just wanted to use the title. But, also to explore that option.

That might be an option but again, I don't think the team around Tatum is or was ever good enough to warrant spending assets or compromising Tatum's ages 30-34 seasons (his 4th contract) to keep together as a core. They are already old, and will be 2 years older. In a vacuum it might be worth keeping them, but for me they aren't good enough nor irreplaceable to hold on to at the expense of resetting the tax and restocking the war chest. Brad has an unprecedented opportunity to reset the roster for the future without repercussions. He should seize that opportunity rather than cling to Brown and White at all cost.

I'm definitely sympathetic to that view, and have many a Brown trade proposal in the past, and even this summer. I just ultimately don't think it'll happen, and think the team takes the optimistic view on Tatum's recovery. I actually do think he'll play next season sometime, for better or worse.

I think it's harder to tear down and rebuild in 2-3 years than is being given credit. If anything goes wrong, you're into the tail of Tatum's prime or beyond before you can get the right surrounding cast.

[BK_2020]

Celtics trade Jaylen Brown

Kings trade Sabonis

Boston Why:
They have no idea what Tatum will be like when he comes back and won't know until the end of 26-27 season to be entirely realistic. There's no point in keeping the team together and pay $200 million in repeater tax for two purgatory years only for Tatum to return to a supporting cast that's aged out and bad. They need to pull the trigger now on a rebuild if they don't want to end up like the Suns.
The first domino has to be their biggest and the most punishing contract. Sending Brown out is the ultimate goal. It really doesn't matter who they get back, as long as it's not PG13. Sabonis is not that great but also not bad, and signed for three more years at less than 30% of the cap. He can be a useful piece of the next contending roster or be the salary that brings in the next piece.

Kings Why:
They get rid of an unhappy star for an All-Star who can drive their offense and take them to the playoffs. As a bonus, Brown went to Cal and likes the area. A follow up trade of Derozan may be necessary. The Kings have shown that they prioritize simply making the playoffs over higher variance outcomes.

A rare trade where both sides come out winners.

Where have you been??

Just been posting on X mostly. It's a more suitable medium for hot takes and hate posts.

[longfellow44]

I'm not a fan of brown he reminds me too much of DeRozan. Sure he is a better defender than DeRozan but statistically they are similar. This is a pass for me. I would rather keep Sabonis.

[redslastlaugh]

Did you watch game 5 against the Knicks. JB was unstoppable, far beyond DeRozan impact on offense/defense

Watch on YouTube

I'm not a fan of brown he reminds me too much of DeRozan. Sure he is a better defender than DeRozan but statistically they are similar. This is a pass for me. I would rather keep Sabonis.

[longfellow44]

Did you watch game 5 against the Knicks. JB was unstoppable, far beyond DeRozan impact on offense/defense

Watch on YouTube

I'm not a fan of brown he reminds me too much of DeRozan. Sure he is a better defender than DeRozan but statistically they are similar. This is a pass for me. I would rather keep Sabonis.

Maybe at this point in their careers but, but still no thank you.

If brown is such a franchise leader then the Celtics shouldn't have any trouble with him as their number one option next season.

Also isn't brown likely to be out with a surgery for a partially torn meniscus?

[nolaPELSfan]

How about Brown for Trey Murphy, Herb & Olynyk?