2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Arsenal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1l6ihkb/nondunk_rim_fg_vs_t50_competition_knueppel_66/

Ignore the two guys in the top right of the chart. Is >60% FG and >90 attempts good?

The Konomaly

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all (below). It's totally bogus to remove dunks and then look at non-dunk rim FG%.

A sample size of 50ish attempts pretty much makes this meaningless. That wouldn’t be enough to reasonably predict something like ft%, which is the shot with the least “context” variability in the game. Add in the fact that “layups” can cover a wide range of degree of difficulty, and this is extra useless.

And beyond that, even if sample size weren’t a concern, I don’t think it’s helpful to breakout layups from dunks. For the best athletes, all of their easier potential layups are dunks. That means we’d expect their fg% on layups to be lower than a below the rim player, because their average layup attempt is going to more difficult. There’s a reason Flagg looks “bad” by this metric, and it’s not because he can’t finish at the basket. Same goes for Kon on the other end of the spectrum

[Negrodamus]

And his inability to hit a three, or shoot free throws, gives us massive Fultz vibes. Fultz was also more athletic.

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

[Arsenal]

Ace Bailey's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is Paul George / Jayson Tatum level superstar.

We're just inserting platitudes that could vaguely describe any 6'8 wing in the draft on the basis of an indeterminate hypothetical.

"Rasheer Fleming's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is..."

"Carter Bryant's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is..."

There's nothing about the reality of what Ace Bailey served up in college last season that indicates anything other than role player upside.

Except in this case it's the projected 3rd overall pick, who was the #2 recruit in the nation last year. Not some random 6'8" wing.

[Negrodamus]

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1l6ihkb/nondunk_rim_fg_vs_t50_competition_knueppel_66/

Ignore the two guys in the top right of the chart. Is >60% FG and >90 attempts good?

The Konomaly

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all:

A sample size of 50ish attempts pretty much makes this meaningless. That wouldn’t be enough to reasonably predict something like ft%, which is the shot with the least “context” variability in the game. Add in the fact that “layups” can cover a wide range of degree of difficulty, and this is extra useless.

And beyond that, even if sample size weren’t a concern, I don’t think it’s helpful to breakout layups from dunks. For the best athletes, all of their easier potential layups are dunks. That means we’d expect their fg% on layups to be lower than a below the rim player, because their average layup attempt is going to more difficult. There’s a reason Flagg looks “bad” by this metric, and it’s not because he can’t finish at the basket. Same goes for Kon on the other end of the spectrum

Dunks do not suggest athleticism, or so I was told.

[Arsenal]

The Konomaly

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all:

A sample size of 50ish attempts pretty much makes this meaningless. That wouldn’t be enough to reasonably predict something like ft%, which is the shot with the least “context” variability in the game. Add in the fact that “layups” can cover a wide range of degree of difficulty, and this is extra useless.

And beyond that, even if sample size weren’t a concern, I don’t think it’s helpful to breakout layups from dunks. For the best athletes, all of their easier potential layups are dunks. That means we’d expect their fg% on layups to be lower than a below the rim player, because their average layup attempt is going to more difficult. There’s a reason Flagg looks “bad” by this metric, and it’s not because he can’t finish at the basket. Same goes for Kon on the other end of the spectrum

Dunks do not suggest athleticism, or so I was told.

We're not taking about athleticism. You were trying to imply Kon is some kind of insane finisher at this rim with this stat, which is not true since the stat removes dunks for no reason at all (except to boost guys like Kon).

[stormi]

And his inability to hit a three, or shoot free throws, gives us massive Fultz vibes. Fultz was also more athletic.

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

I personally feel like the discourse around Ace Bailey comes with a lot of wishcasting from Sixers fans that have never gotten to experience a high level & multi-tooled wing for essentially the entirety of the Joel Embiid era. There's a lot of hope that Bailey can be our very own Tatum or Brown, and who wouldn't want that?

Of course Bailey can improve in certain areas and the fact that he's so young for the class is one of his most positive indicators, but when you dive a bit deeper beyond the contested shotmaking reels, it's not unfair to ask some questions about why a candidate for a top three pick was underperforming essentially across the boards. The passing and the slashing numbers are uncharacteristically bad for a prospect of this caliber.

[Jailblazers7]

This draft is the perfect Petri dish for confirmation bias. Every player at 3 has potentially fatal flaws and theoretically enormous upside. I’ve somehow found myself in the anti-Tre camp and nothing can change my mind that he’s a 6th man of the year candidate at best.

I am happy that we got the nickname Casper Nipples from tonight tho. Honestly makes me want to draft him more now.

[stormi]

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1l6ihkb/nondunk_rim_fg_vs_t50_competition_knueppel_66/

Ignore the two guys in the top right of the chart. Is >60% FG and >90 attempts good?

The Konomaly

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all (below). It's totally bogus to remove dunks and then look at non-dunk rim FG%.

A sample size of 50ish attempts pretty much makes this meaningless. That wouldn’t be enough to reasonably predict something like ft%, which is the shot with the least “context” variability in the game. Add in the fact that “layups” can cover a wide range of degree of difficulty, and this is extra useless.

And beyond that, even if sample size weren’t a concern, I don’t think it’s helpful to breakout layups from dunks. For the best athletes, all of their easier potential layups are dunks. That means we’d expect their fg% on layups to be lower than a below the rim player, because their average layup attempt is going to more difficult. There’s a reason Flagg looks “bad” by this metric, and it’s not because he can’t finish at the basket. Same goes for Kon on the other end of the spectrum

Every stat is cherry picked to Acesexuals besides alleged minute by minute "net ratings" between he and Harper that were dusted from whatever corner of the internet you were able to find some reprieve.

Against what competition, or the leverage of those minutes, we'll never know.

Ace's lack of finishing doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't get to the free throw line doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't finish the rare times he was able to get to the rim doesn't matter. Ace's lack of feel and negative assist to turnover ratio is cherry picked bro.

That net rating though!

[eyeatoma]

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

[Arsenal]

The Konomaly

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all (below). It's totally bogus to remove dunks and then look at non-dunk rim FG%.

A sample size of 50ish attempts pretty much makes this meaningless. That wouldn’t be enough to reasonably predict something like ft%, which is the shot with the least “context” variability in the game. Add in the fact that “layups” can cover a wide range of degree of difficulty, and this is extra useless.

And beyond that, even if sample size weren’t a concern, I don’t think it’s helpful to breakout layups from dunks. For the best athletes, all of their easier potential layups are dunks. That means we’d expect their fg% on layups to be lower than a below the rim player, because their average layup attempt is going to more difficult. There’s a reason Flagg looks “bad” by this metric, and it’s not because he can’t finish at the basket. Same goes for Kon on the other end of the spectrum

Every stat is cherry picked to Acesexuals besides alleged minute by minute "net ratings" between he and Harper that were dusted from whatever corner of the internet you were able to find some reprieve.

Against what competition or the leverage of those minutes we'll never know.

Ace's finishing doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't get to the free throw line doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't finish the rare times he was able to get to the rim doesn't matter. Ace's lack of feel and negative assist to turnover ratio is cherry picked bro.

That net rating though!

Yes, contributing to your team scoring more points and holding the opposition to less points is much more important than random metrics like FTr or A/TO.

[stormi]

Yet another cherry-picked stat to support someone guys are already in the tank for, in this case Kon.

First comment to the post says it all (below). It's totally bogus to remove dunks and then look at non-dunk rim FG%.

Every stat is cherry picked to Acesexuals besides alleged minute by minute "net ratings" between he and Harper that were dusted from whatever corner of the internet you were able to find some reprieve.

Against what competition or the leverage of those minutes we'll never know.

Ace's finishing doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't get to the free throw line doesn't matter. The fact that Ace couldn't finish the rare times he was able to get to the rim doesn't matter. Ace's lack of feel and negative assist to turnover ratio is cherry picked bro.

That net rating though!

Yes, contributing to your team scoring more points than the opposition is much more important that random metrics like FTr or A/TO.

Jaylin Williams (the bad one) had the best net rating in the NBA this season, that's our KIA Ace Bailey MVP of the 2024-2025 season.

[eyeatoma]

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

I personally feel like the discourse around Ace Bailey comes with a lot of wishcasting from Sixers fans that have never gotten to experience a high level & multi-tooled wing for essentially the entirety of the Joel Embiid era. There's a lot of hope that Bailey can be our very own Tatum or Brown, and who wouldn't want that?

Of course Bailey can improve in certain areas and the fact that he's so young for the class is one of his most positive indicators, but when you dive a bit deeper beyond the contested shotmaking reels, it's not unfair to ask some questions about why a candidate for a top three pick was underperforming essentially across the boards. The passing and the slashing numbers are uncharacteristically bad for a prospect of this caliber.

I think if the same issues were planted on the other candidates then fine. If they were better than Bailey, they would have been projected as the #3 pick all year.

Tre Johnson - Can't drive, doesn't use athleticism that he has well, can't defend.

VJ - Decent looking shot, but not a knock down form like Tre or Ace who can shoot in one motion.

Kon - Not athletic, can't shoot off the drible, not a good defender.

Out of those 3, Tre and Vj seems like players who can help the most. But they all have flaws, and Ace as you have said, has age and size going for him.

If you're weighing the risks, wouldn't you rather have the player who has the floor of a great 3 and D player, and the potential of a star?

What's Tre's floor? Lou Will? Okay so that's a 6th man. What's VJs floor? Antonio Daniels?, What's Kon's floor, JJ Redick. With upside of someone like Cam Johnson?

These are all players I'd love to have, but when you have the 3rd pick you swing big for the person with the highest upside and highest floor. This will ensure you are thinking of the future while also ensuring that you are thinking of the present event though I believe this current iteration with Jo and PG as the core is doomed.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Why have an Ace when we can have a Queen? I'd personally rather have a Queen, but the one time I suggested it on here, I got attacked. Bunch of Casper Nipple fans on here and I'm not sure what to think of all that. Lower your standards, move down the line and take a Queen. At that point we'd be officially serious about the BS with Embiid.

Just know, I'd never attack you for wanting Queen. Sounds like Ace Stan behavior.

You know I like Ace...But I like Queens better and if we're moving down, then he should absolutely be the guy we are taking. People talk about Ace being a swing for the fences pick (which he is), but Queen is going to be a scoring machine in this league and I'd be more than happy with us trading down and taking him.

[eyeatoma]

Why have an Ace when we can have a Queen? I'd personally rather have a Queen, but the one time I suggested it on here, I got attacked. Bunch of Casper Nipple fans on here and I'm not sure what to think of all that. Lower your standards, move down the line and take a Queen. At that point we'd be officially serious about the BS with Embiid.

Just know, I'd never attack you for wanting Queen. Sounds like Ace Stan behavior.

You know I like Ace...But I like Queens better and if we're moving down, then he should absolutely be the guy we are taking. People talk about Ace being a swing for the fences pick (which he is), but Queen is going to be a scoring machine in this league and I'd be more than happy with us trading down and taking him.

Eh at this point I'm done with the potential of a big man. We have been down that road with Brand, Bynum, Embiid. Let's try a different position. Also Queen will never be the pick unless you're saying we're either moving Embiid or Embiid is done. I'd say it would be very telling if they do go for a big man, would mean that the writing is on the wall. Having Queen while Embiid is playing, would be great off the bench, but it's also a player that is neutered until he's off the floor.

[Negrodamus]

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

[mjkvol]

There would be peace if you Ace haters stopped overthinking.

How is valid criticism backed by numbers considered "hating"? And how is healthy debate based on opinions but no personal insults, which is exactly what these boards are supposed to be about, not a good thing? Are you two related to Ace Bailey or something?

Don't agree with the criticism? Then fight it off with facts and numbers rather than telling people not to actually use their minds and "overthink" something and do what this forum was meant to do - exchange ideas and opinions.

There's been far more trolling by your side about "overthinking." Please direct your criticism there first.

And there are plenty of facts supporting Ace for our #3 pick, but those who have tunnel vision for BPM have started an anti-Ace jihad.

Pushing back against that is exactly the exchange of ideas and opinions you claim to advocate for.

I don't have a "side", I have players that I would prefer that the Sixers picked, and Ace doesn't happen to be among them. The "overthinking" deal was started by the Ace supporters to shut down dissent, and it became a joke.

Why are the parameters used by some posters to evaluate prospects considered "tunnel vision" while others that might be more favorable to certain players are not?

My point is, argue on those facts that you claim support Ace rather than dismissing criticism of him as a player as "hating" and a "jihad". Why would anyone care so much about a player they prefer being criticized? I love Kon as a prospect, but I don't get all out of sorts over the silly "Nipples" references. Damn, this stuff isn't that important.

[Mik317]

Ace is all ideas and theoretical rn imo.

The idea of a 6'8 wing scorer is the **** man. Easiest guy to build around and or with. However, as we have seen it is also the position that kinda requires near perfection to truly hit in a sense. Got to be a great shooter. Have great handle. Be able to get by people. And then also finish. And also not be a liability on defense. Oh and then be a good passer because then teams will just double you and force you to. **** is hard man.

RN its like Tatum, Kawhii when he's not broken, JDub, and like Brown? Everyone else is missing part of the package and are glorified 3 and D guys or guys who don't really fit in like Kaminga. There has been a ton of guys with the idea of being this that just don't pan out...like Culver, Okoro, Hunter, Stanley Johnson, Reddish, Knox, my beloved MKG...with the "hits" being Mikal, Trey Murphy, and MPJ and two of them are hated big time by their current teams lol.

Again I think some of the rabid Ace haters are going too far BUT at the same time I also think the KD and PG stuff is overblown. People seem to not grasp how special those guys are in terms of full package. Ace AT THIS MOMENT doesn't have those special traits. His shot is good and the ability to make tough shots is great...but we have seen that its not something you can make your whole game on either. The FT% and fact that he shot the same % as the shaky shooter than is VJ is worth being concerned over. The tough shot making also came from not being able to drive by his man and this was the case in HS. His loose handle (which can be worked on) is also a thing that will hold back that shot creation upside big time and without the quick first step to make up for it. You are banking on his body developing and adding some speed and strength there but based on the CURRENT REALITY it just kinda sounds closer to a 18 year old version of the CURRENT Paul George...or Tobias than a KD or Prime PG, no?

These are the hang ups I have about Ace rn.

HOWEVA I have similar hang ups on VJ (dat finishing and the fact that he seems smaller than his 6'5 listing), Tre (don't think he is as athletic as he tested and I know Nurse will send him to the shadow realm) and Kon (don't know if he can coexist with ONE of Maxey and McCain...let alone 2 of them)...

so who **** knows lol.

[zaz102]

I like Ace a lot, but IMO Negrodamus provides the best stats and videos to back his claim.

[Arsenal]

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

You'd think it would be easier to get assists passing the ball on a stacked Duke team to Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Frank Jackson, Harry Giles and Amile Jefferson instead of the trash at Rutgers, but I guess that's just an excuse in your book.

Oh but why did Ace choose Rutgers then you'll say? I concede the point, Ace didn't pick the best college team for himself as a high school senior. His team choosing skills as a 17-year-old are subpar.

[Negrodamus]

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

You'd think it would be easier to get assists passing the ball on a stacked Duke team to Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Frank Jackson, Harry Giles and Amile Jefferson instead of the trash at Rutgers, but I guess that's just an excuse in your book.

Oh but why did Ace choose Rutgers then you'll say? I concede the point, Ace didn't pick the best college team for himself as a high school senior. His team choosing skills as a 17-year-old are subpar.

So we like him because of what he could possibly be if his team wasn’t holding him back?

Do you have failed potential assists? Do you have clips that show he’s being triple teamed? Do you have data showing the defense packing the paint, preventing him from getting rim looks?