Bears 12.0

[fleet]

if i have to guess, my previously established opinion is still correct, and any new information that is incongruous with that opinion is explained away by other factors i made up

New information? They had 15-20 interviews again this time in front of a clownish panel for all the new assistant coaches..Unless, they didn’t have 15-20 interviews in front of a clownish panel for the coaches, and Ben Johnson straight hired who he wanted to hire, because he’s got it like that. And there’s not much question in town that Ben Johnson bossed that draft.

[Susan]

1. They have an elite prospect of an offensive coach - there's a major difference between COTY KOC and a guy who's only called plays at an excellent level. I'm leery of how pass heavy they appear to be and the age/health of the OL - the Lions were a top 6 running team with an OL that had heavy resources put into it and we don't exactly have that here.

2. Their depth is wildly unproven. Even Rome was a mild disappointment relative to the hype he had coming out.

3. Ozzy is a RT shifting to the left side as a rookie, Jackson more or less missed the entire year last year and 4+ games every season in the previous two, he's wildly unreliable and Thuney is at the age where you just can't expect excellent health from him.

4. They went 14-3 with Sam Darnold. They didn't need JJ to produce in the slightest to be successful, they were good enough all around to afford to wait on him. Of course the injury removed this from the equation but say you threw Sam Darnold on last year's team, how many games do you think the Bears are winning? Every single time they've thrown young QBs out there into a bad situation and asked them to save the day with no thought or plan on how to develop them.

I generally agree with all your points.

I would say the Bears have done a lot of things to try to address their problems. We'll see how they work in reality vs on paper, but I think all of your concerns are well justified.

That said there is reasonable evidence in terms of pass win rates and time to pressure stats to suggest the offensive line wasn't quite the unmitigated disaster people described and that it was closer to average and it is reasonable to think this year's line should be better.

I don't think the Bears are likely to be lightning in a bottle this year, and I probably have as many concerns as you (though I think you are a more knowledgeable and passionate football guy than I am), but it does feel like on paper the investments were mostly in the right place this year to me. I hope they translate well enough to see some real improvement and well enough that we can really judge Caleb well.

If instead I ask the question, "Do I think the decisions made this off-season seem like they are decent and addressing the correct problems", then I lean a little more yes than I have with other years under Poles, whom I generally have not liked.

Fundamentally Poles has prioritized building outside in. Meaning he's used significantly more assets on the secondary/pass catchers than he's used on DL and OL.

While they've invested more in the OL this offseason, they still invested heavily into one very old guard, one proven unreliable guard (Jackson) and are asking a late second round rookie to make a significant position switch and block Caleb's blindside.

Injury issues and position changing non withstanding - the amount of capital invested in the WR/TE rooms is a massive issue from a chemistry standpoint. OL is the most selfless position grouping whereas the WR room is notorious for creating or attracting divas - the Bears simply put have too much invested on the outside and if/when trouble hits, WRs get frustrated. DJ was fine when he was the only dude in the room but when he had to adjust to a new QB, contend with Allen & Rome for catches and the team struggled - you started to see finger pointing from him. That dynamic still exists and IMO might be even worse because you have 3 young guys who are highly drafted who are eager to prove themselves in Loveland, Burden & Rome.

Poles thinks he's smarter than he is/has a lot of hubris- getting Nate Davis & Chase Claypool when they were known problems elsewhere proved that. Both Caleb and Johnson have excellence in their rear view mirrors but nobody is better in college football at propping up a college QB than Lincoln Riley and the Lions had an elite culture, elite OL, a top 2 RB in Gibbs that helped facilitate Johnson's play calling excellence. We saw what Caleb looked like when he went to a bad situation (lame duck defensive HC and bad OL) and it wasn't the instantaneous slam dunk success that he expected it would be.

If I had to guess - this team is going to be too pass heavy, there's going to be drama from the WR room and injuries from the OL room that hold the offense back and the team is going to underperform again. They win roughly 6 games and Poles gets fired and this carousel of misaligned stupidity goes on. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

[Dresden]

1. They have an elite prospect of an offensive coach - there's a major difference between COTY KOC and a guy who's only called plays at an excellent level. I'm leery of how pass heavy they appear to be and the age/health of the OL - the Lions were a top 6 running team with an OL that had heavy resources put into it and we don't exactly have that here.

2. Their depth is wildly unproven. Even Rome was a mild disappointment relative to the hype he had coming out.

3. Ozzy is a RT shifting to the left side as a rookie, Jackson more or less missed the entire year last year and 4+ games every season in the previous two, he's wildly unreliable and Thuney is at the age where you just can't expect excellent health from him.

4. They went 14-3 with Sam Darnold. They didn't need JJ to produce in the slightest to be successful, they were good enough all around to afford to wait on him. Of course the injury removed this from the equation but say you threw Sam Darnold on last year's team, how many games do you think the Bears are winning? Every single time they've thrown young QBs out there into a bad situation and asked them to save the day with no thought or plan on how to develop them.

I generally agree with all your points.

I would say the Bears have done a lot of things to try to address their problems. We'll see how they work in reality vs on paper, but I think all of your concerns are well justified.

That said there is reasonable evidence in terms of pass win rates and time to pressure stats to suggest the offensive line wasn't quite the unmitigated disaster people described and that it was closer to average and it is reasonable to think this year's line should be better.

I don't think the Bears are likely to be lightning in a bottle this year, and I probably have as many concerns as you (though I think you are a more knowledgeable and passionate football guy than I am), but it does feel like on paper the investments were mostly in the right place this year to me. I hope they translate well enough to see some real improvement and well enough that we can really judge Caleb well.

If instead I ask the question, "Do I think the decisions made this off-season seem like they are decent and addressing the correct problems", then I lean a little more yes than I have with other years under Poles, whom I generally have not liked.

Fundamentally Poles has prioritized building outside in. Meaning he's used significantly more assets on the secondary/pass catchers than he's used on DL and OL.

While they've invested more in the OL this offseason, they still invested heavily into one very old guard, one proven unreliable guard (Jackson) and are asking a late second round rookie to make a significant position switch and block Caleb's blindside.

Injury issues and position changing non withstanding - the amount of capital invested in the WR/TE rooms is a massive issue from a chemistry standpoint. OL is the most selfless position grouping whereas the WR room is notorious for creating or attracting divas - the Bears simply put have too much invested on the outside and if/when trouble hits, WRs get frustrated. DJ was fine when he was the only dude in the room but when he had to adjust to a new QB, contend with Allen & Rome for catches and the team struggled - you started to see finger pointing from him. That dynamic still exists and IMO might be even worse because you have 3 young guys who are highly drafted who are eager to prove themselves in Loveland, Burden & Rome.

Poles thinks he's smarter than he is/has a lot of hubris- getting Nate Davis & Chase Claypool when they were known problems elsewhere proved that. Both Caleb and Johnson have excellence in their rear view mirrors but nobody is better in college football at propping up a college QB than Lincoln Riley and the Lions had an elite culture, elite OL, a top 2 RB in Gibbs that helped facilitate Johnson's play calling excellence. We saw what Caleb looked like when he went to a bad situation (lame duck defensive HC and bad OL) and it wasn't the instantaneous slam dunk success that he expected it would be.

If I had to guess - this team is going to be too pass heavy, there's going to be drama from the WR room and injuries from the OL room that hold the offense back and the team is going to underperform again. They win roughly 6 games and Poles gets fired and this carousel of misaligned stupidity goes on. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

I disagree with a lot of this. You're seeing the glass half empty wherever possible. The secondary is a good place to invest assets in, and it's not like he's neglected the D line- he drafted Gervon, Pickenns, and Stewart and used a 2nd round pick to trade for Sweat, and added Billings (I think that was under Poles).

The only WR you could quibble with is Burden. The Rome pick was a pretty obvious one given we only had DJ at the position. Burden was just the BPA, and if we end up having too much talent at WR, they can trade DJ and free up more cap space.

You're calling Thuney "very old" but he's still playing at a high level, and that acquisition was almost universally applauded by analysts. Dalman was the best center available, and they got him. At LT, we still have Braxton, and as backups, there's Trapillo and Kiran.

The second TE was a bit of a luxury, but again, most people say you just have to get blue chip players when you're drafting that high, and Loveland likely was one of the few left on the board (Tyler Warren, another TE, was one of the others). And Kment, while serviceable, has not really proven to be a star, and Loveland could well be one.

[dougthonus]

1. They have an elite prospect of an offensive coach - there's a major difference between COTY KOC and a guy who's only called plays at an excellent level. I'm leery of how pass heavy they appear to be and the age/health of the OL - the Lions were a top 6 running team with an OL that had heavy resources put into it and we don't exactly have that here.

2. Their depth is wildly unproven. Even Rome was a mild disappointment relative to the hype he had coming out.

3. Ozzy is a RT shifting to the left side as a rookie, Jackson more or less missed the entire year last year and 4+ games every season in the previous two, he's wildly unreliable and Thuney is at the age where you just can't expect excellent health from him.

4. They went 14-3 with Sam Darnold. They didn't need JJ to produce in the slightest to be successful, they were good enough all around to afford to wait on him. Of course the injury removed this from the equation but say you threw Sam Darnold on last year's team, how many games do you think the Bears are winning? Every single time they've thrown young QBs out there into a bad situation and asked them to save the day with no thought or plan on how to develop them.

I generally agree with all your points.

I would say the Bears have done a lot of things to try to address their problems. We'll see how they work in reality vs on paper, but I think all of your concerns are well justified.

That said there is reasonable evidence in terms of pass win rates and time to pressure stats to suggest the offensive line wasn't quite the unmitigated disaster people described and that it was closer to average and it is reasonable to think this year's line should be better.

I don't think the Bears are likely to be lightning in a bottle this year, and I probably have as many concerns as you (though I think you are a more knowledgeable and passionate football guy than I am), but it does feel like on paper the investments were mostly in the right place this year to me. I hope they translate well enough to see some real improvement and well enough that we can really judge Caleb well.

If instead I ask the question, "Do I think the decisions made this off-season seem like they are decent and addressing the correct problems", then I lean a little more yes than I have with other years under Poles, whom I generally have not liked.

Fundamentally Poles has prioritized building outside in. Meaning he's used significantly more assets on the secondary/pass catchers than he's used on DL and OL.

While they've invested more in the OL this offseason, they still invested heavily into one very old guard, one proven unreliable guard (Jackson) and are asking a late second round rookie to make a significant position switch and block Caleb's blindside.

Injury issues and position changing non withstanding - the amount of capital invested in the WR/TE rooms is a massive issue from a chemistry standpoint. OL is the most selfless position grouping whereas the WR room is notorious for creating or attracting divas - the Bears simply put have too much invested on the outside and if/when trouble hits, WRs get frustrated. DJ was fine when he was the only dude in the room but when he had to adjust to a new QB, contend with Allen & Rome for catches and the team struggled - you started to see finger pointing from him. That dynamic still exists and IMO might be even worse because you have 3 young guys who are highly drafted who are eager to prove themselves in Loveland, Burden & Rome.

Poles thinks he's smarter than he is/has a lot of hubris- getting Nate Davis & Chase Claypool when they were known problems elsewhere proved that. Both Caleb and Johnson have excellence in their rear view mirrors but nobody is better in college football at propping up a college QB than Lincoln Riley and the Lions had an elite culture, elite OL, a top 2 RB in Gibbs that helped facilitate Johnson's play calling excellence. We saw what Caleb looked like when he went to a bad situation (lame duck defensive HC and bad OL) and it wasn't the instantaneous slam dunk success that he expected it would be.

If I had to guess - this team is going to be too pass heavy, there's going to be drama from the WR room and injuries from the OL room that hold the offense back and the team is going to underperform again. They win roughly 6 games and Poles gets fired and this carousel of misaligned stupidity goes on. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

I really enjoyed the way you thought through this. I found it a really unique way to view how some of the decisions we are making may feel good on paper but have these greater risks to them then the paper decision feels like.

As a guy who looks at most problems as an economic model, I think some of the things you raised here are why a lot of the decisions don't feel good but you can't quite put your finger on it directly. Like investing too much in a position vs balanced investments may always be a bit of a problem, but doing so at WR probably sets you up for more problems than somewhere else, and how we probably carry this greater meltdown risk than had we done things differently.

[Peelboy]

1. They have an elite prospect of an offensive coach - there's a major difference between COTY KOC and a guy who's only called plays at an excellent level. I'm leery of how pass heavy they appear to be and the age/health of the OL - the Lions were a top 6 running team with an OL that had heavy resources put into it and we don't exactly have that here.

2. Their depth is wildly unproven. Even Rome was a mild disappointment relative to the hype he had coming out.

3. Ozzy is a RT shifting to the left side as a rookie, Jackson more or less missed the entire year last year and 4+ games every season in the previous two, he's wildly unreliable and Thuney is at the age where you just can't expect excellent health from him.

4. They went 14-3 with Sam Darnold. They didn't need JJ to produce in the slightest to be successful, they were good enough all around to afford to wait on him. Of course the injury removed this from the equation but say you threw Sam Darnold on last year's team, how many games do you think the Bears are winning? Every single time they've thrown young QBs out there into a bad situation and asked them to save the day with no thought or plan on how to develop them.

I generally agree with all your points.

I would say the Bears have done a lot of things to try to address their problems. We'll see how they work in reality vs on paper, but I think all of your concerns are well justified.

That said there is reasonable evidence in terms of pass win rates and time to pressure stats to suggest the offensive line wasn't quite the unmitigated disaster people described and that it was closer to average and it is reasonable to think this year's line should be better.

I don't think the Bears are likely to be lightning in a bottle this year, and I probably have as many concerns as you (though I think you are a more knowledgeable and passionate football guy than I am), but it does feel like on paper the investments were mostly in the right place this year to me. I hope they translate well enough to see some real improvement and well enough that we can really judge Caleb well.

If instead I ask the question, "Do I think the decisions made this off-season seem like they are decent and addressing the correct problems", then I lean a little more yes than I have with other years under Poles, whom I generally have not liked.

Fundamentally Poles has prioritized building outside in. Meaning he's used significantly more assets on the secondary/pass catchers than he's used on DL and OL.

While they've invested more in the OL this offseason, they still invested heavily into one very old guard, one proven unreliable guard (Jackson) and are asking a late second round rookie to make a significant position switch and block Caleb's blindside.

Injury issues and position changing non withstanding - the amount of capital invested in the WR/TE rooms is a massive issue from a chemistry standpoint. OL is the most selfless position grouping whereas the WR room is notorious for creating or attracting divas - the Bears simply put have too much invested on the outside and if/when trouble hits, WRs get frustrated. DJ was fine when he was the only dude in the room but when he had to adjust to a new QB, contend with Allen & Rome for catches and the team struggled - you started to see finger pointing from him. That dynamic still exists and IMO might be even worse because you have 3 young guys who are highly drafted who are eager to prove themselves in Loveland, Burden & Rome.

Poles thinks he's smarter than he is/has a lot of hubris- getting Nate Davis & Chase Claypool when they were known problems elsewhere proved that. Both Caleb and Johnson have excellence in their rear view mirrors but nobody is better in college football at propping up a college QB than Lincoln Riley and the Lions had an elite culture, elite OL, a top 2 RB in Gibbs that helped facilitate Johnson's play calling excellence. We saw what Caleb looked like when he went to a bad situation (lame duck defensive HC and bad OL) and it wasn't the instantaneous slam dunk success that he expected it would be.

If I had to guess - this team is going to be too pass heavy, there's going to be drama from the WR room and injuries from the OL room that hold the offense back and the team is going to underperform again. They win roughly 6 games and Poles gets fired and this carousel of misaligned stupidity goes on. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

While I agree with a lot of this, I think there's also a lot overly skewed to negative potential outcomes. The biggest area of agreement is that Poles has historically had it backwards and built outside in, which was a knowable/known issue for the team and unsurprisingly it came to bite them in the ass last year on both sides of the ball.

That said, I think this year was a substantial reversal and nowhere near as risky as you make it out to be:
1. Yes, Thuney is old, which means higher risk for decline/injury. That said, he was rated 12/136G in the league by PFF last year, and that ranking seems anecdotally reasonable based on commentary on his play. If they get 1-2 years even of lower level play, that would likely still be upper half of the league. Barring an early injury, this is almost guaranteed to be at least a substantial and potentially a massive upgrade.

2. Jackson as "proven unreliable" based on last year, but three prior years in Detroit and under Johnson, he was solid. Another substantial upgrade. Hell, even at the level he played last year (40/136 G per PFF), much better than Nate Davis and the parade that succeeded him.

3. Dalman is both proven and young, acknowledged as the best C in the class and a bonafide top tier center.

They still have Bates/Murray and then the 2 kids: Amegadije and Trapilo. But rather than needing to start 2-3 of them, they're all reserves.

Your scenario seems to suggest multiple injuries/demotions, otherwise, I have a real hard time seeing anything less than a substantially improved line. Factor in better coaching as well.

I was ready to can Poles last year because of exactly what you say: building outside in and focusing on shiny new toys rather than fundamental inside out football. But I think he's done a pretty good job reversing that this offseason and put the OL in a pretty good situation.

The chemistry issue is TBD. I agree that WR/TE are more commonly divas v OL. I'm not sure about this group though, by all accounts, Rome is a solid dude, DJ had been considered that prior to the bad body language last year, and Cole also seems like a guy who's not rocking the boat demanding the ball. Might be Poles getting lucky because he has absolutely invested incorrectly (prior to this past offseason), but I'd be surprised if you see drama from the WRs. No one's in range for a new contract, DJ/Kmet have theirs and the others are too early in career (Caveat: no clue about Burden, but I like a guy who deals with the sting of not being an FRP by hitting the jugs gun). Combine that with what I have seen about the attitudes and it would be surprising to me.

[dougthonus]

He's 8-4 in his last 12, his advanced passing stats were good last year, he's got a lot of talent along the OL for the first time of his career and he stresses a defense with the running game in a rare way. If you care about straight passing yards, he's not it but he's a better QB than what this fanbase wants to admit.

FWIW, I don't know what the feeling on Fields is from the Bears fan base, I would say he seems like a low rung starter in the league right now. That seems to be backed up by his contract offer this year where he was priced against the market.

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

If you ignore the rookies whom haven't been fairly priced yet against the market place and are on structured rookie deals, he's probably bottom 3 in the NFL in QB in salary among starters. Just eyeballed it, so maybe bottom 3 isn't exact, and I'm not really familiar with what all teams are doing QB wise for sure either.

Feels like a fringe starter by my eye test, paid like a fringe/bridge starter by the NFL. Certainly no reason to lose sleep over him moving on. I don't think he's deserving of a massive amount of hate or anything, but he's a guy you have because you have no one else you believe in and have no way to obtain that guy this year.

[nomorezorro]

he was benched for a mediocre old QB last season, and then his team let him walk to replace him with either another old mediocre qb, or nobody. i cannot fathom still being hung up on justin fields in 2025

[fleet]

Bagent has everything he needs between the ears.

Read on Twitter

[TheJordanRule]

Bagent has everything he needs between the ears.

Read on Twitter

Quite right. Agent Bagent is the anti-Justin. He does not sit around waiting for the same 1 or 2 guys to get open. He was refreshing in several of his starts because he could get the ball out quickly and get out of harm's way. The arm strength still isn't where it needs to be on deep balls, but he has improved to the point where he can now make mid range passes pretty consistently and nail the short range passes, too. He's not gonna win game all by himself, necessarily, but the important thing with backups is that he doesn't lose you the game himself, either. To get a vote of confidence from Fleet is no small thing. Justin never really earned that, and rightfully so... most of us have come around to the fact that the flaws in Justin's game disqualify him from being within the Top Half of Starting NFL QBs, much less Franchise QB material. I know Justin still has some true believers within our fanbase like our brother Susan, but most of us have moved on after those last three years of abject failure hit. There still enough love within me for Justin's well being that I will probably always root for him, but I'm a Bears fan first, and I'm thrilled that the frustrating days of slow processing are long gone.

[GetBuLLish]

Disappointed to hear that the Bears aren't using VR technology with their QBs. Supposedly it helped Jayden Daniels a lot.

[Susan]

he was benched for a mediocre old QB last season, and then his team let him walk to replace him with either another old mediocre qb, or nobody. i cannot fathom still being hung up on justin fields in 2025

Wilson was promised the job so he got it back when he got healthy, Schefter reported last week that the Steelers wanted Stafford and Fields ahead of Rodgers and Fields picked the Jets.

It's not the fact that they got rid of Fields, it's the complete inability to properly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the roster & coaching staff and an extreme lack of due diligence that's been a pattern:

-both Maye and Daniels were not brought in for a visit, they were not even considered even though Daniels was better in 2023 and Maye had been thought of 1b since 2022 and his physical tools alone make him worth a look
-the OL was more or less the same garbage from 2023 to 2024 despite having money and ample draft capital, they had the resources but the fact that they did more or less nothing to address it means they thought it was sufficient and all you had to do is watch the film a little bit to know that both the coaching (Morgan stayed) and the players sucked
-i know you're a smart guy, how many minutes of watching Matt Eberflus on Hard Knocks did it take you to know that this dude is a complete **** moron? If Poles couldn't figure that out after 2 seasons, then he's probably a damn moron too

The end result was bad imo but truly the entire thought process that went into the entire 2024 off season was so mind numbingly bad that it's impossible to see him recovering. This is the dude who said "we're going to take the North and never give it back" only to win an average of 5 games a year. It's all hype and zero actual substance. He's gonna be back in KC next year and the misery of being a Chicago Bears fan will continue as Caleb gets a brand new GM who's sadly not tied to him in any way and the rebuild gets a rebuild!

It's just predictable.

[Susan]

He's 8-4 in his last 12, his advanced passing stats were good last year, he's got a lot of talent along the OL for the first time of his career and he stresses a defense with the running game in a rare way. If you care about straight passing yards, he's not it but he's a better QB than what this fanbase wants to admit.

FWIW, I don't know what the feeling on Fields is from the Bears fan base, I would say he seems like a low rung starter in the league right now. That seems to be backed up by his contract offer this year where he was priced against the market.

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

If you ignore the rookies whom haven't been fairly priced yet against the market place and are on structured rookie deals, he's probably bottom 3 in the NFL in QB in salary among starters. Just eyeballed it, so maybe bottom 3 isn't exact, and I'm not really familiar with what all teams are doing QB wise for sure either.

Feels like a fringe starter by my eye test, paid like a fringe/bridge starter by the NFL. Certainly no reason to lose sleep over him moving on. I don't think he's deserving of a massive amount of hate or anything, but he's a guy you have because you have no one else you believe in and have no way to obtain that guy this year.

The Lions got to where they are by believing in Goff after he was seen as a throw in from the Stafford trade. They had an elite running game, elite OL and excellent team culture.

The Jets IMO are emulating that formula :

-Two young top 10 tackles along with in their prime guards and a highly drafted center,

-Breece Hall is a top 7 talent at RB to go with Braelon Allen and Fields is a top 3 rushing QB - the Bears went from 1st & 2nd in total rushing yards in 2022 & 2023 and regressed to 23rd in 2024, the Jets are going to run the **** out of the ball

-hard to speak on the culture but going back to my point above - they have a lot invested in their OL and defense which means they're probably going to be pretty selfless and tough

[dice]

he was benched for a mediocre old QB last season, and then his team let him walk to replace him with either another old mediocre qb, or nobody. i cannot fathom still being hung up on justin fields in 2025

Wilson was promised the job so he got it back when he got healthy, Schefter reported last week that the Steelers wanted Stafford and Fields ahead of Rodgers and Fields picked the Jets.

fields was offered a $15 mil, 1 yr guarantee w/ team option for 2nd year by steelers

he basically got $40 mil over 2 years from jets. jets would get $10 mil rebate if they cut him prior to year 2...which would obviously only occur if he was god-awful or suffered a major injury

[nomorezorro]

i'm not saying you're definitely wrong to be optimistic about the jets and pessimistic about the bears, but it is pretty funny juxtaposition to make a big post about how one team is doomed to failure because of their GM who's overseen an average of 5 wins a season the past 3 years, then follow it up by praising the roster construction of another team that's averaged a whopping 6 wins the past 3 years

[dice]

the Bears went from 1st & 2nd in total rushing yards in 2022 & 2023 and regressed to 23rd in 2024, the Jets are going to run the **** out of the ball

so the jets are what the bears were when fields was here in 2023! strong running game. one established WR and (possibly) a quality TE. incoming first time head coach who was a good defensive coordinator. average defense...

so why will he succeed this time? i suppose the coaching couldn't be worse than it was here. better pass protection probably...

bears won 7 games in 2023. we'll see what the jets new culture is worth

[nomorezorro]

also it's weird to act like the jets line is definitively leagues above what the bears have built! obviously the draft capital they've invested in the line is nice, but their OTs have 7 and 0 NFL starts, and their interior is three dudes who have been good-not-great to this point of their career. thuney was pretty comfortably the best player on either line last year, and there's a strong case to be made that wright is the no. 2 player from either group even if you were being position-agnostic about tackle value. (dalman might even be no. 3, in that case?)

i would probably take the jets group over the bears group, especially if we're talking long-term, but it's not crazy to think the bears could be better for the next season or two.

[fleet]

[dougthonus]

The Lions got to where they are by believing in Goff after he was seen as a throw in from the Stafford trade. They had an elite running game, elite OL and excellent team culture.

Goff had been to multiple probowls and averaged like ~280 passing yards a game over the past 3 years. He had led a team to the superbowl already in his career and while the Rams were certainly down on him after two lack luster seasons compared to where he started his career on a superstar trajectory, he had full seasons of top 10 performance under his belt.

Fields doesn't have any of that.

The Jets IMO are emulating that formula :

-Two young top 10 tackles along with in their prime guards and a highly drafted center,

-Breece Hall is a top 7 talent at RB to go with Braelon Allen and Fields is a top 3 rushing QB - the Bears went from 1st & 2nd in total rushing yards in 2022 & 2023 and regressed to 23rd in 2024, the Jets are going to run the **** out of the ball

-hard to speak on the culture but going back to my point above - they have a lot invested in their OL and defense which means they're probably going to be pretty selfless and tough

No opinion on what the Jets may do, but I don't think it changes the fact that Justin Fields is a guy a team only picks because because they want a bridge option. If the consensus view of him was that he was a star level (or even average level) starting QB, he would have been paid like it. He may have chosen the Jets, but if the Steelers really coveted him, they could have trivially changed his mind by offering him average starting QB money, but they didn't view him that way.

Maybe that will change if Fields has a break out season this year, but it's hard for me to see any reason to think the current NFL viewpoint on him as anything hire than fringe starter.

[Susan]

The Lions got to where they are by believing in Goff after he was seen as a throw in from the Stafford trade. They had an elite running game, elite OL and excellent team culture.

Goff had been to multiple probowls and averaged like ~280 passing yards a game over the past 3 years. He had led a team to the superbowl already in his career and while the Rams were certainly down on him after two lack luster seasons compared to where he started his career on a superstar trajectory, he had full seasons of top 10 performance under his belt.

Fields doesn't have any of that.

The Jets IMO are emulating that formula :

-Two young top 10 tackles along with in their prime guards and a highly drafted center,

-Breece Hall is a top 7 talent at RB to go with Braelon Allen and Fields is a top 3 rushing QB - the Bears went from 1st & 2nd in total rushing yards in 2022 & 2023 and regressed to 23rd in 2024, the Jets are going to run the **** out of the ball

-hard to speak on the culture but going back to my point above - they have a lot invested in their OL and defense which means they're probably going to be pretty selfless and tough

No opinion on what the Jets may do, but I don't think it changes the fact that Justin Fields is a guy a team only picks because because they want a bridge option. If the consensus view of him was that he was a star level (or even average level) starting QB, he would have been paid like it. He may have chosen the Jets, but if the Steelers really coveted him, they could have trivially changed his mind by offering him average starting QB money, but they didn't view him that way.

Maybe that will change if Fields has a break out season this year, but it's hard for me to see any reason to think the current NFL viewpoint on him as anything hire than fringe starter.

https://www.nfl.com/news/lions-do-not-consider-current-starter-jared-goff-to-be-bridge-qb

Most of the NFL world considers Jared Goff to be a bridge for the Lions, a starter to help them get to the real franchise starting QB at some point in the future. That is, everyone except the Lions.

Not gonna debate how Goff was seen in 2022, he fell off in the last two years with the Rams and the common thought wasn't that he was a franchise QB.

Winning in sports in general is largely a game of finding the flaws in common thought and exploiting them - finding late round standouts in the draft, picking up players in FA/trade that are under developed elsewhere and correctly utilizing them are how that's done. Additionally you can go the Sam Presti route and accumulate so many draft picks - which it looked like what Poles was on his way to doing but to my sensibilities he went off and bought a whole bunch of Skittles with his cash.

Take Jalen Hurts - if you polled the remaining 31 NFL teams whether they'd swap their QBs with him, I'd guess less than half would take Hurts because the running QB is still undervalued in the NFL. The Eagles just won the Super Bowl with this meta and it's still not exactly respected enough.

Where you spend your draft capital shows your values. I cannot think of a team outside of the early 2000s Lions that spent so much draft capital on passing weapons than what Poles just did in the last two years. They're wishcasting the OL and hoping they can out scheme everybody on the outside and I can't think of a team that's been able to pull that off at a high level outside of maybe the Bengals.

Jim Harbaugh has a .685 winning percentage and it's largely because of this value:

https://youtube.com/shorts/XJAwL9QONI4?si=kfbE8esRxjhz6Hkb

[nomorezorro]

i think you are the only human on earth who thinks the bears approach to investing in their offensive line this season is consistent with their approach the previous few seasons.

acting like draft capital is the only metric for evaluating Where The Team's Priorities Lie is really weird, because it's definitely not the only way teams acquire players! you can quibble with individual moves all you want, but it's hard to look at how the bears have built their o-line and say they didn't care about allocating resources to the position group:

lt - invested a second- and third-round pick into the position despite having an adequate starter in-house on a rookie contract
lg - traded for an all-pro
c - signed the consensus top free agent to a top-5 contract at the position
rg - traded for a guy who was highly regarded enough to earn $17m/year in free agency
rt - used a top 10 pick