2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Negrodamus]

Wait, why are dunks excluded in this chart?

Do they count for less than 2 points now?

Was this chart made just to elevate certain players by removing another way of scoring at the rim?

Dunks create energy and momentum for teams and fans, maybe the should count for 2.5 half points?

Layups suggest touch around the rim since dunks aren’t exactly easy to come by in halfcourt offense.

What about floaters and teardrops were they included? This is feeling an awful lot like a very precise method of pumping up a certain type of player while downing others.

Feel free to post “contested midrange shots per 48 min” graphs to your heart’s desire.

[76ciology]

I did like that lost in the chart of halfcourt layup looks was me pumping DQ/Kasparas extremely hard, but was called out for pumping Kon.

81% on all shot at the rim on halfcourt are unassisted for Kasparas. 54% for Queen.

[Black Mage]

So we like him because of what he could possibly be if his team wasn’t holding him back?

Do you have failed potential assists? Do you have clips that show he’s being triple teamed? Do you have data showing the defense packing the paint, preventing him from getting rim looks?

Wait... Tatum was fighting for dominance against the likes of Kennard, Allen, Jackson, Giles and Amile Jefferson????

Seriously, he couldn't command 1st at the food-line against that pathetic scrub lineup? That's like one of the weakest Duke rosters I've seen in the last 20 years. So yeah, him not standing out was a red flag.

Pretty disqualifying to say Kennard and Allen were scrubs at Duke, if I’m being honest. I suggest going back and peeping their impact.

You do realize in his freshman year Kennard averaged 1.5 assists a game and his assist ratio was 10% just 2% higher than Ace's? Kennard a DUKE PG with shooters around him barely slipped past what Ace did. Even in his sophmore year, Kennard only put up 2.5 assists while playing 35.5 mins a game.

[Black Mage]

I did like that lost in the chart of halfcourt layup looks was me pumping DQ/Kasparas extremely hard, but was called out for pumping Kon.

81% on all shot at the rim on halfcourt are unassisted for Kasparas. 54% for Queen.

Guard vs a big; gee I wonder why the percentages turned out that way.

[76ciology]

The reason it’s hard to pass on Tre Johnson is simple, he has the most valuable skillset in the game.. shooting. And not just average shooting, we’re talking about potentially top 1% in the league. Offensively, he has a real shot at becoming a star-level scorer at some point in his career.

Johnson just had the most impressive jump shooting season for a freshman since college play-by-play stats started in 2010. He shot 87% from the line, 39% from three on high volume (almost 12 attempts per 100 possessions), and most of those makes were self-created, 33% unassisted. That’s elite in every category.

The issue is the other end, he’s a bad defender and a non-factor on the glass. But I’d circle back to something we’ve seen play out, when you’re dealing with athletic guard who has a 6’10” wingspan, it changes the conversation. He’s being compared to guys like Cam Thomas, Tyler Herro or Lou Williams, but that’s not quite fair. Those two don’t have anywhere near the physical upside. They’re poor defenders in part because their short bodies make it hard to defend without draining their offensive energy.

Im not saying there’s 0, but there just aren’t many guards in the last 5–10 years with his athleticism and a 6’10” wingspan who turned out to be liabilities on defense. With that kind of frame and movement ability, there’s at least a baseline level of defensive competence he can grow into. So the bet is elite shooting, offensive star upside, and enough physical tools to figure out the rest.

[76ciology]

I did like that lost in the chart of halfcourt layup looks was me pumping DQ/Kasparas extremely hard, but was called out for pumping Kon.

81% on all shot at the rim on halfcourt are unassisted for Kasparas. 54% for Queen.

Guard vs a big; gee I wonder why the percentages turned out that way.

Still impressive for a guard. 30% HC rim frequency on 62% shooting.

[Negrodamus]

Wait... Tatum was fighting for dominance against the likes of Kennard, Allen, Jackson, Giles and Amile Jefferson????

Seriously, he couldn't command 1st at the food-line against that pathetic scrub lineup? That's like one of the weakest Duke rosters I've seen in the last 20 years. So yeah, him not standing out was a red flag.

Pretty disqualifying to say Kennard and Allen were scrubs at Duke, if I’m being honest. I suggest going back and peeping their impact.

You do realize in his freshman year Kennard averaged 1.5 assists a game and his assist ratio was 10% just 2% higher than Ace's? Kennard a DUKE PG with shooters around him barely slipped past what Ace did. Even in his sophmore year, Kennard only put up 2.5 assists while playing 35.5 mins a game.

That’s because in Kennard’s 2nd team all American season, Grayson Allen was the PG. So Kennard was mostly off ball and was scoring at a rate that got him major accolades (and drafted in the first round). With Kennard playing at an All American level, it’s even more impressive that Tatum was able to take the ball out of both of their hands and generate the assists he did. Really showed he wasn’t just a tough shot maker.

[Black Mage]

The reason it’s hard to pass on Tre Johnson is simple, he has the most valuable skillset in the game.. shooting. And not just average shooting, we’re talking about potentially top 1% in the league. Offensively, he has a real shot at becoming a star-level scorer at some point in his career.

Johnson just had the most impressive jump shooting season for a freshman since college play-by-play stats started in 2010. He shot 87% from the line, 39% from three on high volume (almost 12 attempts per 100 possessions), and most of those makes were self-created, 33% unassisted. That’s elite in every category.

The issue is the other end, he’s a bad defender and a non-factor on the glass. But I’d circle back to something we’ve seen play out, when you’re dealing with athletic guards who have a 6’10” wingspan, it changes the conversation. He’s being compared to guys like Tyler Herro or Lou Williams, but that’s not quite fair. Those two don’t have anywhere near the physical upside. They’re poor defenders in part because their bodies make it hard to defend without draining their offensive energy.

There just aren’t many guards in the last 5–10 years with his athleticism and a 6’10” wingspan who turned out to be liabilities on defense. With that kind of frame and movement ability, there’s at least a baseline level of defensive competence he can grow into. So the bet is elite shooting, offensive star upside, and enough physical tools to figure out the rest.

I see you snagged the quote from the Phillyvoice article talking to some scout named Jama; maybe it was MamaJama or something.

Tre did not have the "most impressive jump shooting season for a freshman... blah blah blah."

Tre shot a below average from midrange; below average on 2pt attempts generally and below average at the rim.

His elite skill was only from 3 pt range. That's it.

Ace beat Tre from 2pt mid, 2 pt general and tied him at the rim.

Jared McCain beat Tre from 3, 2pt mid, 2 pt general and at the rim.

So that bogus scout Sixers-Adam called started a false narrative about Tre being some kind of elite 3 level scorer; Tre isn't even elite at 2 levels based on college production.

Can we please stop pretending this narrative is accurate? Jared McCain smokes Tre as a shooter if we're being serious.

[Black Mage]

Pretty disqualifying to say Kennard and Allen were scrubs at Duke, if I’m being honest. I suggest going back and peeping their impact.

You do realize in his freshman year Kennard averaged 1.5 assists a game and his assist ratio was 10% just 2% higher than Ace's? Kennard a DUKE PG with shooters around him barely slipped past what Ace did. Even in his sophmore year, Kennard only put up 2.5 assists while playing 35.5 mins a game.

That’s because in Kennard’s 2nd team all American season, Grayson Allen was the PG. So Kennard was mostly off ball and was scoring at a rate that got him major accolades (and drafted in the first round). With Kennard playing at an All American level, it’s even more impressive that Tatum was able to take the ball out of both of their hands and generate the assists he did. Really showed he wasn’t just a tough shot maker.

Ace was also not the PG and per 40 Kennard and Ace were less than 1 pt apart and that's comparing Kennard's sophomore year to Ace as a 17 yr old freshman. So Kennard's job was to score and he put in 22 per 40 and only got 2.8 assists while doing it; but Ace's job to score and doing it at 21 per 40 and assisting 1.5 is somehow not good?

[Negrodamus]

You do realize in his freshman year Kennard averaged 1.5 assists a game and his assist ratio was 10% just 2% higher than Ace's? Kennard a DUKE PG with shooters around him barely slipped past what Ace did. Even in his sophmore year, Kennard only put up 2.5 assists while playing 35.5 mins a game.

That’s because in Kennard’s 2nd team all American season, Grayson Allen was the PG. So Kennard was mostly off ball and was scoring at a rate that got him major accolades (and drafted in the first round). With Kennard playing at an All American level, it’s even more impressive that Tatum was able to take the ball out of both of their hands and generate the assists he did. Really showed he wasn’t just a tough shot maker.

Ace was also not the PG and per 40 Kennard and Ace were less than 1 pt apart and that's comparing Kennard's sophomore year to Ace as a 17 yr old freshman. So Kennard's job was to score and he put in 22 per 40 and only got 2.8 assists while doing it; but Ace's job to score and doing it at 21 per 40 and assisting 1.5 is somehow not good?

I’m not taking Kennard top 3, nor would I have back then. Why are we comparing the two?

[the_process]

Thought just occurred to me: what if the Hawks hired Dinwiddie in part because they wanted the inside scoop on Embiid?

Wishful thinking. Probably.

[eyeatoma]

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

I'd rather bet on the anomaly rather than 3 players who are either play the same position as our current players, or will never be good enough to have on the floor defensively.

Unless you think there one of Tre or VJ actually have star upside? Queen won't work IMO because Embiid is there, and if he does become good it's because Embiid is done, and then it's pointless. Mind you, I think the plan to toe the line is silly and they should just trade him, but if they're not doing that you still need to think about positional compatibility a little. You usually take BPA but our situation is different, even though I think it won't be succuessful in all likelihood.

IMO the best option if it's not Ace woudl be Tre or VJ. I'd prefer Tre because he's a lights out scorer. Fears will be good but he's too small, and least with Tre you'll have a big gaurd next to Maxey.

[Kolkmania]

Crazy false equivalence. Can you agree Jokic is a top 10 player in the league? The advanced stats suggest that.

The advanced stats, which aren’t the end all be all of evaluating college prospects btw, are being used as a part of the equation to decide if this guy will ever be a star in the league. When I use it, I usually show in the context of patterns shared by current (or recent) All Stars and apply it to the current batch of prospects. I think that’s a valid usage of it, no?

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

I don't want to convince anyone that Bailey is in fact an excellent play maker, but I do think that his situation with zero shooting surrounding him impacted his AST% (8.3 is red flag territory). One conversed kick-out or drop-off per 100 possessions cranks that 8.3 AST% up to ~12 or so. That's not an uncommon range for elite playmaking forwards (Tatum, Hayward, Butler).
Reading online scout reports of Bailey as a high school player they actually emphasize the playmaking skills for his size. I do think that is important for contextualizing his situation at Rutgers.

I think his shot making is his true swing skill. If his shooting skill is truly great (and therefore implying that this season FT% is an anomaly), I think he has a reasonable gradual development path in front of him that allows him to take on more shot making responsibilities as time goes by. The dribbling/explosiveness is certainly not elite, but I think he shows enough flashes given his size.

I think that Tatum was far more mature as a freshman (technically and physically), but I do see some Franz Wagner similarities?

[eyeatoma]

Franz Wagner is a damn good player.

[Lou_23]

Top-10 Vecenie Big Board

1.Flagg
2.Harper
3.Knueppel
4. VJ
5. Tre Johnson
6.Bailey
7. Jakucionis
8.CMB
9.Carter Bryant
10. Coward

12.Maluach
16.Essenge

[zaz102]

Are there stats to quantify how bad the Rutgers team is outside of Ace and Harper?

Watching games, they look brutal which makes me want to soften the concerns on Ace's passing (and maybe his ability to get to the rim). He's obvious not great regardless, but I could see a world where his assist numbers could be bumped up to Tatum numbers if he was on a better team.

However, I haven't watched enough games to know if the Rutgers team is that much worse than other teams to give Ace the benefit of the doubt or not.

[Negrodamus]

I mean, there was a lot of stats that didn't really fit the physical markers of Bailey. If I recall you had chosen players who were guards, and constantly had the ball in their hands. When we know that guards get assists, and have the highest rate of getting to the line.

I was pounding the table for Tatum as the best player in that draft and he was hardly a distributor. But despite having to fight with Kennard and Allen to have the ball, he was still a >10 AST% because he has some distribution chops. Despite being off ball quite a bit, he found ways to get to the line. Despite having a mediocre 3FG%, he had the volume and an excellent FT%, so I wasn’t worried.

Now do Ace, and try to do it without making excuses for his team, having to share with Harper, etc, because honestly, I can’t be sold on a guy at three that you need to explain away his season to me. Sorry, I’ll happily be wrong and eat crow when he’s a superstar, but that very, very rarely happens. Like Jaylen Brown, if you consider him a superstar, was an unlikely stud by statistical standpoint. But do we want to bet on the anomaly with this pick?

I'd rather bet on the anomaly rather than 3 players who are either play the same position as our current players, or will never be good enough to have on the floor defensively.

Unless you think there one of Tre or VJ actually have star upside? Queen won't work IMO because Embiid is there, and if he does become good it's because Embiid is done, and then it's pointless. Mind you, I think the plan to toe the line is silly and they should just trade him, but if they're not doing that you still need to think about positional compatibility a little. You usually take BPA but our situation is different, even though I think it won't be succuessful in all likelihood.

IMO the best option if it's not Ace woudl be Tre or VJ. I'd prefer Tre because he's a lights out scorer. Fears will be good but he's too small, and least with Tre you'll have a big gaurd next to Maxey.

I am not considering Embiid in this decision, but even if I were, Queen is a PF in my eyes. I see him as having the biggest star upside of any of these guys if I'm being real.

[Black Mage]

Are there stats to quantify how bad the Rutgers team is outside of Ace and Harper?

Watching games, they look brutal which makes me want to soften the concerns on Ace's passing (and maybe his ability to get to the rim). He's obvious not great regardless, but I could see a world where his assist numbers could be bumped up to Tatum numbers if he was on a better team.

However, I haven't watched enough games to know if the Rutgers team is that much worse than other teams to give Ace the benefit of the doubt or not.

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?

type in Bailey AND harper - it will give team on/off results for when both are on and both went off.

[Jailblazers7]

Queen does seem like a prime candidate to make people look back with regret that they passed on him because he was in poor shape as a college athlete.

[76ciology]

Top-10 Vecenie Big Board

1.Flagg
2.Harper
3.Knueppel
4. VJ
5. Tre Johnson
6.Bailey
7. Jakucionis
8.CMB
9.Carter Bryant
10. Coward

12.Maluach
16.Essenge

I commend this board for the thoughtful discussions, we were ahead of the mainstream media on Bailey’s slide.