2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[prime1time]

Well. Might as well put my rankings up.
- Dont get too bogged down in the Tier description as I was just trying to show my thinking.

Tier 1: All-NBA caliber player for more than half of career. You Kill to acquire and build the team around, no matter what. Worth WAY more than the Max. I.e. Lebron, Jokic, Giannis, etc
Tier 2: All-Star Caliber Player for more than half of career. May have a couple All-NBAs. Worth the Max. I.e. Donovan Mitchell, Booker, Sabonis.
Tier 3: All-Star Caliber Player in Prime of career, but mostly a high end 3rd piece. These guys sometimes make an All-NBA team, but not usually and routinely become bad contracts as they are usually given the Max. I.e. Beal, Jaylen Brown, Julius Randle, etc
Tier 4: Starters on contender and may make an AS team or two. Conversely, these guys can sometimes be UNDERPAID as the Tier 3 guys are the ones that really get the bump. I.e. Derrick White, Deni, FVV, Holiday, Desmond Bane, etc
Tier 5: Starter on a playoff team, but usually shine off the bench for a contender. Won’t make an AS games, but will have a productive/long career. These guys routinely find the most success as fringe starters later in their career. I.e. Jordan Poole, De’Andre Hunter, MPJ, OG, Harrison Barnes, etc
Tier 6: Usually a 6th-8th man on a playoff team, but can be a starter on a sub .500 team. I.e. Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, Buddy Hield etc

Tier 1:
Flagg

Tier 2:
Harper

Tier 3.5(Tier 4, but have X factors that could be 3)
Tre
Fears

Tier 4:
Ace
Essengue
Maluach
VJ
Traoré
Bryant
Coward
Jakučionis

Tier 5:
Sorber
Clayton
Kon
Wolf
Fleming
Gonzalez
CMB
Beringer
Richardson

Tier 6:
Demin
Riley
Powell
Queen
Newell
Penda
Clifford
Thiero
Saraf

Guys Im looking at in the 2nd:
Kalkbrenner
Kam Jones
Broome
Yang
Raynaud

Priority UDFA:
Jamir Watkins
Hunter Sallis
Ryan Nembhard
Izan Almansa

If the belief that Flagg will be a Giannis, Jokic, LBJ esque player it's hard to imagine him matching those expecations. Basically anything less than a possible top 15 player of all time will be a disappointment. Imo, there's simply too much offensive projection for me to see that. I think Flagg, using your classification, would be a tier 2 player.

[doclinkin]

Yeah I feel like there’s a tier zero for the true generational players. Especially the obvious ones coming out like LBJ. Shaq. Kareem. Heavily hyped heavily scouted, instantly likely to change the direction of a franchise.

Magic. Duncan. Iverson. Dream. Maybe Wemby if he stays healthy. Guys whose advance press was through the roof but who managed to exceed even those high expectations. Players you saw coming long before they landed in the league.

Flagg has the hype. I just don’t see what single skill set he brings to the league that is dominant and unstoppable. He is however the most well rounded player I’ve ever seen at that age. Without any real weakness to his game. So there’s that.

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

[SUPERBALLMAN]

CBS SPORTS MOCK

Has Wizards taking Fears at 6 & Asa Newell at 18.

I would love this!

Watch on YouTube

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Very interesting draft discussion...

Watch on YouTube

[TGW]

I don’t understand the Queen hate. If they’re going to go all offense/little to no defense, they should take Queen over Tre Johnson all day everyday. Queen is a supremely gifted player as a big man. I wouldn’t take him at 6, but in a trade down scenario absolutely.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I will be glad when this draft is over.

Endless speculation is waring on me.

Hey CCJ, didn't mean to not respond to you before the last draft thread was locked. No, I remember seeing greendale's handle, but it's not me. I'm jusst Gig18
Annnnd old enough to go back to Earl. So, yeah, Jack Marin, Kevin Loughery, then later Kevin Porter, Truck Robinson, Mike Riordan, Phil Chenier. they all surrounded Wes and E during my younger years.
Was just looking at an old photo of Marin. Heck he even looks a little facially like Kon Kneuppel...

That's outstanding!

I can only remember the Baltimore Bullets.

Technically, I started off being a UCLA and Lew Alcindor fan. I read about him in a Weekly Reader book in 1969. (That book and another about the TV Harlem Globetrotters were my earliest reading, not about Dick and Jane and Puff). Like my Dad, I rooted for the UCLA Bruins. By 1973, I loved basketball. That's when we moved to the DMV.

My earliest Bullets' recollection is of Wes Unseld rebounding and throwing an outlet pass. Mike Riordan attempting to bait Rick Barry into a fight during the Finals will be an everlasting memory. Kevin Porter was like the Road Runner while dribbling. Elvin Hayes had the deadliest turnaround jumper ever.

Greg Ballard attended our church in Fort Washington.

Gig18, thank you, Sir , for the memories.

[doclinkin]

Ultimately I’m just excited for this draft. I’ll be up in the mountains and out of touch so I won’t even find out about it until days after. But it’s rare that a draft has this many players in it that I like.

I know the guy I want most at the top: Maluach actually. I just think it’s likely they try to trade up for Ace. Scorers are more prized than bigs. Their effect is more flashy. We lack a triggerman other than Poole. In my mind Ace takes that role from him in time. Upgrades our back court with rebounds and defense. If not passing…

And truth is asset wise it may be smarter. Because if we don’t get a true big at 6 there’s a pack of front court beasts lower down. I will be happy with many of these guys at 18 or beyond:

I’ve talked about Sorber. Wolf. CMB. Rasheed. Gone over question marks about Queen. But I know even the doubters would like the kid once he’s in the team. Queen is a genuinely great guy. Entertaining to watch, loved by every teammate he ever had. Has a deep bag of tricks on offense. Upside in his ranged jumper. Passing chops. And the local connection with Bub, I could see those two playing well off each other.

If he’s this good without tuning up his body how much better could he be with heavy work?

Beyond DQ.

We don’t talk about Joan Beringer because maybe we are tired of frenchies but there’s a non-zero chance he’s the best defensive center in the draft. Even more raw than Maluach, he first touched a ball in 2021 after he outgrew his soccer cleats. But even with that his talent makes him effective while he still barely knows the game. Too athletic, as with most soccer playing bigs he’s mobile. Balanced. Changes direction and floats like he’s on hockey skates.

Ada Newell was overshadowed by Flagg in high school. But regardless of skill or hype he finds ways to affect the box score. Has that fire where he scraps and hunts for ever edge.

There are skilled young and huge players into the 2nd round.

Konan. Strong. Battled his way through the combine to steal the spotlight.

Rocco. Longest player in the draft and one of the youngest. Has been playing in the Aussie league since he was 16.

Yang. You don’t see this much finesse and dazzle dazzle in a Big. Too skilled for the CBA on offense.

Maxime. Deft large skilled smart. Sure to improve.

And also accomplished veteran players like Kalkbrenner. Johni Broome. You won’t find players more ready for productive minutes than these two.

Anyway. I like our chances to build a deep skilled team. And the same way last year I liked a mess of guards, this year I think the strength of the draft is in front court players. Just in time for the league to get a bit rougher.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don’t understand the Queen hate. If they’re going to go all offense/little to no defense, they should take Queen over Tre Johnson all day everyday. Queen is a supremely gifted player as a big man. I wouldn’t take him at 6, but in a trade down scenario absolutely.

Ditto.

Alex Sarr is a perimeter-oriented big who can be a lob threat. Derik Queen has moves and counter moves at the rim. Derik's shooting won't be problematic when he's played next to Alex.

Queen will score at the rim like no other Wizard.

[pcbothwel]

Well. Might as well put my rankings up.
- Dont get too bogged down in the Tier description as I was just trying to show my thinking.

Tier 1: All-NBA caliber player for more than half of career. You Kill to acquire and build the team around, no matter what. Worth WAY more than the Max. I.e. Lebron, Jokic, Giannis, etc
Tier 2: All-Star Caliber Player for more than half of career. May have a couple All-NBAs. Worth the Max. I.e. Donovan Mitchell, Booker, Sabonis.
Tier 3: All-Star Caliber Player in Prime of career, but mostly a high end 3rd piece. These guys sometimes make an All-NBA team, but not usually and routinely become bad contracts as they are usually given the Max. I.e. Beal, Jaylen Brown, Julius Randle, etc
Tier 4: Starters on contender and may make an AS team or two. Conversely, these guys can sometimes be UNDERPAID as the Tier 3 guys are the ones that really get the bump. I.e. Derrick White, Deni, FVV, Holiday, Desmond Bane, etc
Tier 5: Starter on a playoff team, but usually shine off the bench for a contender. Won’t make an AS games, but will have a productive/long career. These guys routinely find the most success as fringe starters later in their career. I.e. Jordan Poole, De’Andre Hunter, MPJ, OG, Harrison Barnes, etc
Tier 6: Usually a 6th-8th man on a playoff team, but can be a starter on a sub .500 team. I.e. Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, Buddy Hield etc

Tier 1:
Flagg

Tier 2:
Harper

Tier 3.5(Tier 4, but have X factors that could be 3)
Tre
Fears

Tier 4:
Ace
Essengue
Maluach
VJ
Traoré
Bryant
Coward
Jakučionis

Tier 5:
Sorber
Clayton
Kon
Wolf
Fleming
Gonzalez
CMB
Beringer
Richardson

Tier 6:
Demin
Riley
Powell
Queen
Newell
Penda
Clifford
Thiero
Saraf

Guys Im looking at in the 2nd:
Kalkbrenner
Kam Jones
Broome
Yang
Raynaud

Priority UDFA:
Jamir Watkins
Hunter Sallis
Ryan Nembhard
Izan Almansa

If the belief that Flagg will be a Giannis, Jokic, LBJ esque player it's hard to imagine him matching those expecations. Basically anything less than a possible top 15 player of all time will be a disappointment. Imo, there's simply too much offensive projection for me to see that. I think Flagg, using your classification, would be a tier 2 player.

I think Flagg will make half a dozen All-NBA teams and be 10X All-Star. LeBron, Giannis, and Jokic are the most extreme examples of this tier, but Flagg will still be in it.

[nate33]

I don’t understand the Queen hate. If they’re going to go all offense/little to no defense, they should take Queen over Tre Johnson all day everyday. Queen is a supremely gifted player as a big man. I wouldn’t take him at 6, but in a trade down scenario absolutely.

Ditto.

Alex Sarr is a perimeter-oriented big who can be a lob threat. Derik Queen has moves and counter moves at the rim. Derik's shooting won't be problematic when he's played next to Alex.

Queen will score at the rim like no other Wizard.

Best case scenario is that Queen is the next Nikola Vucevic.

Statistically, that would be awesome. Vucevic has had a 14 year career, 13 of those years as a starter. Over his 10-year peak, he averaged 19 points, 11 boards and 3 assists, while making 2 All-Star games. His career PER is a very impressive 21.

The problem is, in Vucevic's 14-year career, he made the playoffs just 3 times, losing 4-1 each time and posting a -7.0 on/off differential in those games. That's 3 total playoff wins in 14 years. That prototype just doesn't win in the playoffs. Centers MUST defend.

[AFM]

I don’t understand the Queen hate. If they’re going to go all offense/little to no defense, they should take Queen over Tre Johnson all day everyday. Queen is a supremely gifted player as a big man. I wouldn’t take him at 6, but in a trade down scenario absolutely.

Ditto.

Alex Sarr is a perimeter-oriented big who can be a lob threat. Derik Queen has moves and counter moves at the rim. Derik's shooting won't be problematic when he's played next to Alex.

Queen will score at the rim like no other Wizard.

Best case scenario is that Queen is the next Nikola Vucevic.

You got the wrong Nikola and I don't mean Tesla.

[nate33]

Ditto.

Alex Sarr is a perimeter-oriented big who can be a lob threat. Derik Queen has moves and counter moves at the rim. Derik's shooting won't be problematic when he's played next to Alex.

Queen will score at the rim like no other Wizard.

Best case scenario is that Queen is the next Nikola Vucevic.

You got the wrong Nikola and I don't mean Tesla.

Dairy Queen averages 1.9 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes. It's utterly preposterous to project Jokic-tier playmaking from him.

[payitforward]

I don’t understand the Queen hate. If they’re going to go all offense/little to no defense, they should take Queen over Tre Johnson all day everyday. Queen is a supremely gifted player as a big man. I wouldn’t take him at 6, but in a trade down scenario absolutely.

Agreed. It's almost always better to judge players (& people) based on what they can do rather than judging them on their weaknesses.

Keep in mind as well that whomever is chosen at 6, he's unlikely to become one of the dominant players in the league -- no more likely than is the 12th player taken in the same year. In fact, he's not likely to be any better than the guy taken at 12:

*ekpe udoh vs. xavier henry
jan vesely vs. alek burks*
damian Lillard* vs jeremy lamb
nerlens noel vs steven adams*
marcus smart* vs dario saric
willie cauley-stein vs trey lyles*
buddy hield vs. taurean prince
jonathan isaac* vs. luke kennard
mo bamba vs. miles bridges*
jarrett culver vs. pj washington*
onyeka okungwu vs. tyrese haliburton*
josh giddey* vs. joshua primo
bennedict mathurin vs. jalen williams*
anthony black vs. derreck lively*

[NatP4]

Read on Twitter

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[NatP4]

It’s Essengue or CMB at #6 for me.

[nate33]

Maluach was significantly more productive over the second half of the season. As his USG% went up, his passing improved and his turnovers decreased. He even rebounded better and blocked more shots.

Read on Twitter

The same pattern shows for another favorite of mine: Jase Richardson.

Interestingly, the same pattern also showed up for SGA.

[TGW]

The wizards would have a hella draft with Maluach and J-Rich. If they’re could somehow nab another pick in the teens somehow and nab esengue or Carter Bryant, that would be the icing on the cake.

Would have made a lot more sense to trade Deni this year in an actual good draft and not give him away, but this is the Wizards at the end of the day. Let’s be real…Carington would be going in the mid twenties in this draft.

[pcbothwel]

Best case scenario is that Queen is the next Nikola Vucevic.

You got the wrong Nikola and I don't mean Tesla.

Dairy Queen averages 1.9 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes. It's utterly preposterous to project Jokic-tier playmaking from him.

This Queen obsession if fascinating. When Jokic was 21 he averaged a per36 of 22 / 13 / 6 on a TS of 64% and 2:1 AST TOV ratio.
Queen MAY be a real interesting hub for the bench unit and I get that. But people really dont seem to understand that Jokic is a freak outlier and most teams that try to build around that model will have a low ceiling.

[DCZards]

You got the wrong Nikola and I don't mean Tesla.

Dairy Queen averages 1.9 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes. It's utterly preposterous to project Jokic-tier playmaking from him.

This Queen obsession if fascinating. When Jokic was 21 he averaged a per36 of 22 / 13 / 6 on a TS of 64% and 2:1 AST TOV ratio.
Queen MAY be a real interesting hub for the bench unit and I get that. But people really dont seem to understand that Jokic is a freak outlier and most teams that try to build around that model will have a low ceiling.

I don’t think anyone here seriously thinks Queen is the next Joker.

You gotta keep in mind that AFM is the board’s court jester.