2025 NBA Draft

[basketballRob]

I think Richardson's ceiling is Sexton. Sexton averaged 7.4 3s per 100 possessions last season and 6.3 per 100 for his career. Jared McCain averaged 11.1 per 100 last season.

Do we want a player in the mold of Sexton or like McCain? I think we need a player that you need to closely guard as soon as they cross half court, and if you give them an inch, they'll get a shot off.

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[Knightro]

It's possible Jase could be good. When I watched one of his games this season, he wasn't very assertive on the offensive end, causing him to have a poor offensive game. When I watched Clayton, it was the exact opposite.

You of all people aren't actually completely disregarding age because it suits your argument, are you?

This is coming from the guy who will mention without irony that one guy is 6-8 months younger than another.

Jase at 19 blows Clayton at 19 completely out of the water too.

[Knightro]

I think Richardson's ceiling is Sexton. Sexton averaged 7.4 3s per 100 possessions last season and 6.3 per 100 for his career. Jared McCain averaged 11.1 per 100 last season.

Do we want a player in the mold of Sexton or like McCain? I think we need a player that you need to closely guard as soon as they cross half court, and if you give them an inch, they'll get a shot off.

Now do Richardson's 3s per 100 as a starter only...

[basketballRob]

https://youtu.be/ONimSysWcAw?si=KXECKlN7jsYC8OK5

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[basketballRob]

I think Richardson's ceiling is Sexton. Sexton averaged 7.4 3s per 100 possessions last season and 6.3 per 100 for his career. Jared McCain averaged 11.1 per 100 last season.

Do we want a player in the mold of Sexton or like McCain? I think we need a player that you need to closely guard as soon as they cross half court, and if you give them an inch, they'll get a shot off.

Now do Richardson's 3s per 100 as a starter only...

Clayton was 6 months younger his freshman year than Richardson. The Iona team had 4 senior guards and 2 juniors, so Clayton didn't get much of a chance. The Michigan State team had 1 senior guard.

In Clayton's second season, when he was 6 months older than Richardson, Clayton shot 46/43/95 for 16.8 ppg, and he was MVP of the Mac conference.

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[basketballRob]

In Clayton's freshman season, he was a nobody that was only recruited by 3 Division 1 teams, and they were all small schools. That was the Covid season, so I'm sure it was hard to even see him play. Pitino recruited Clayton after seeing a virtual game.

Clayton had a bunch of football offers to big schools like Florida, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Georgia.

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[RichCollab]

In Clayton's freshman season, he was a nobody that was only recruited by 3 Division 1 teams, and they were all small schools. That was the Covid season, so I'm sure it was hard to even see him play. Pitino recruited Clayton after seeing a virtual game.

Clayton had a bunch of football offers to big schools like Florida, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Georgia.

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Clayton at 16 would be a mistake.

[Knightro]

I think Richardson's ceiling is Sexton. Sexton averaged 7.4 3s per 100 possessions last season and 6.3 per 100 for his career. Jared McCain averaged 11.1 per 100 last season.

Do we want a player in the mold of Sexton or like McCain? I think we need a player that you need to closely guard as soon as they cross half court, and if you give them an inch, they'll get a shot off.

Now do Richardson's 3s per 100 as a starter only...

Jase Richardson did averaged 3.2 3PT per game which is 7.3 per 100 possessions, but you really have to split it out to starter v. not starter.

He was 2.1 3PTA per game as a reserve, but as a starter that more than doubled and jumped all the way to 4.6 3PT per game, which translates out to roughly 10.4 threes per 100 possessions*

(This is an estimation because I don't have Michigan State's exact possessions per game numbers from just the games Jase started, but I can't imagine it's too different from the games he didn't start/just the conference games).

[Knightro]

Clayton was 6 months younger his freshman year than Richardson. The Iona team had 4 senior guards and 2 juniors, so Clayton didn't get much of a chance. The Michigan State team had 1 senior guard.

In Clayton's second season, when he was 6 months older than Richardson, Clayton shot 46/43/95 for 16.8 ppg.

Yeah... at Iona. Which ranked 220th of 363 teams that season in strength of schedule. He was playing much weaker competition.

Michigan State was 19th in strength of schedule this past season.

[basketballRob]

Weltman will look foolish if he drafts Richardson at #16, and he doesn't crack the rotation next season. Then Miami drafts Clayton at #20, and he wins rookie of the year.

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[MartinsIzAfraud]

Weltman will look foolish if he drafts Richardson at #16, and he doesn't crack the rotation next season. Then Miami drafts Clayton at #20, and he wins rookie of the year.

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ohh looks like Knightro has his bet lined up for next year!!!!!!!!!!!!

[basketballRob]

In the last 10 games, which included the NCAA and Conference Tournaments, Clayton made 38 3s. Richardson made 47 for the whole season.

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[fendilim]

Rob when will you start posting odds on who we puck at 16th and 25th? Lol

[SOUL]

There are very few rookies that will crack the rotation this year barring injuries regardless imo. We need to get off 2021 draft brain.

[Idiosyncratic]

Clayton and Jase are both viable mid 1st round picks IMO. I would lean toward picking Jase, but wouldn't be mad at either.

They need to trade for someone to score and handle the ball though, whoever they draft I would view as a potential cheap rotational guy going forward and if they become more, then awesome. I do like taking one of the guards especially if they trade for a 6th man type, because then you have some options that could develop and become a starter down the line. Also just because I do have the three main guards (Jase/Traore/Clayton) ranked as good value at our picks.

[basketballRob]

Clayton 66.7% on pull-up 3s?

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/walter-clayton-florida-draft-narrative-guards#:~:text=Like%20the%20Celtic%20guard%2C%20Clayton,against%20him%20in%20screen%20scenarios.

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[Knightro]

Weltman will look foolish if he drafts Richardson at #16, and he doesn't crack the rotation next season. Then Miami drafts Clayton at #20, and he wins rookie of the year.

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Spoiler: Clayton isn't likely to crack the rotation next year either assuming the Magic do acquire a scoring guard of the Simons/Monk/Poole/White caliber.

[basketballRob]

Weltman will look foolish if he drafts Richardson at #16, and he doesn't crack the rotation next season. Then Miami drafts Clayton at #20, and he wins rookie of the year.

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Spoiler: Clayton isn't likely to crack the rotation next year either assuming the Magic do acquire a scoring guard of the Simons/Monk/Poole/White caliber.

If we draft Clayton at #16, I could see NAW as being our big offseason acquisition and possibly a forward like Cam Johnson or Portis. If we trade for Simons, the #16 will be included

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[VFX]

Kasparas > Coward > Jase > Clayton

Kasparas can bend defenses and control pace of play. He's a fringe starter/bench unit guy coming into the league, but with Orlando's lack of point guard skillsets he would be starting. He's not a great pull up shooter off the dribble, but he can be eventually.

Coward has the special Weltman draft intangibles of being a ridiculous size for his position because he's a 6'6 SG with a 7'2! wingspan. Probably the best 2/3 - 3&D wing in the draft other than Edgecomb. I'm taking Coward over Clifford if Orlando goes this route because he has a higher ceiling, better intangibles, and is 2 years younger.

Jase is a connector combo guard. He's undersized. I don't think he is a starting lineup guy. More of an off the bench playmaker/scorer similar to a better version of Cole. He's athletic, can finish at the rim, and can shoot. However, I still dont think he's a guy you can ask to do a lot on the ball.

Clayton is an older version of Jase, but he's more of a score-first version instead of a connector. It's arguable he is a point guard. I dont think he can guard bigger guards though. Just another guy that is an off the bench scorer.

Kasparas is only available if Orlando trades up or he falls really far in the draft. The other 3 can probably be had at #16 if a team doesn't reach for Jase or Coward. Clayton can probably be had at #25 because that's probably his value. Tre Johnson, Knueppel, and Fears are probably out of range despite being better fitting selections because you could argue that any of them can go in the top 4-8.

Personally, I'm not really interested in guys that cannot break into the starting lineup. I'd rather Weltman either trade up or trade out for a known quantity. The only caveat to that statement has to do with Weltman using the draft as an insurance policy to replace players he is going to move like Cole, Isaac, Carter, or Goga. However, that comes with the assumption that other moves are being made to regulate the roster disparities.

[fendilim]

Kasparas > Coward > Jase > Clayton

Kasparas can bend defenses and control pace of play. He's a fringe starter/bench unit guy coming into the league, but with Orlando's lack of point guard skillsets he would be starting. He's not a great pull up shooter off the dribble, but he can be eventually.

Coward has the special Weltman draft intangibles of being a ridiculous size for his position because he's a 6'6 SG with a 7'2! wingspan. Probably the best 2/3 - 3&D wing in the draft other than Edgecomb. I'm taking Coward over Clifford if Orlando goes this route because he has a higher ceiling, better intangibles, and is 2 years younger.

Jase is a connector combo guard. He's undersized. I don't think he is a starting lineup guy. More of an off the bench playmaker/scorer similar to a better version of Cole. He's athletic and can finish at the rim.

Clayton is an older version of Jase, but he's more of a score-first version instead of a connector. It's arguable he is a point guard. I dont think he can guard bigger guards though. Just another guy that is an off the bench scorer.

Kasparas is only available if Orlando trades up or he falls really far in the draft. The other 3 can probably be had at #16 if a team doesn't reach for Jase or Coward. Clayton can probably be had at #25 because that's probably his value. Tre Johnson, Knueppel, and Fears are probably out of range despite being better fitting selections because you could argue that any of them can go in the top 4-8.

Personally, I'm not really interested in guys that cannot break into the starting lineup. I'd rather Weltman either trade up or trade out for a known quantity. The only caveat to that statement has to do with Weltman using the draft as an insurance policy to replace players he is going to move like Cole, Isaac, Carter, or Goga.

Honestly I’d buy this. Kasaparas and Coward would be on top of my list too. They also fit the positional size Weltman preaches. They check the boxes of shooting and positional size plus good feel for the game.