**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[twix2500]

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[Wiltside]

If we're going developmental prospect, could see us looking at Egor Demin if he drops to pick 20. 6'10" and 200lbs guard.

Our last 5 FRP's:

2024, Pick 15 - Kel'el Ware
2023, Pick 18 - Jaime Jaquez Jr
2022, Pick 27 - Nikola Jovic
2020, Pick 20 - Precious Achiuwa
2019, Pick 13 - Tyler Herro

That's not a bad strike rate at all from the mid/late first round.

Pick 20 is early enough to find us a difference maker, particularly in a draft that seems relatively flat from a talent distribution standpoint.

A lot of our needs will depend on what the team is working on from a Free Agency / Trade standpoint, so I'd rather we just focus on taking BPA from a talent perspective and worry about roster and fit at a later juncture.

Based on what I'm reading, these are some of the guys who I'm watching closely:

- Cedric Coward: 21yr old SG/SF. 6'7, 215lbs with 7'2" wingspan. Those are nice measurables. Averaged 17/7/4 and 2.5 stocks. Shot 55% from the floor and 40% from 3 (2.0 makes per). I could see a role as a backup 2/3, but has enough size and length to be a longer term option at the 3 alongside Herro. Looks to be a quality catch and shoot player too, which is important. Perhaps a bit of the Joe Johnson's about him?

- Danny Wolf: 21yr old PF/C. 6'11", 252lbs and 7'2" wingspan. This would be a Rex nightmare pick, but he looks to me like a mixture of Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markannen. Has that passing ability as a big to make the right read, can handle a bit but also a pick and pop option. Could be a nice option to mix and match with Ware to provide different looks and skillsets. My only worry is going with 2 young bigs when we have bigger holes on the roster right now, but he looks like he'll be a solid pro.

- Carter Bryant: 19yr old SF/PF, 6'8" and 215lbs with 6'11" wingspan. This would be the development pick. Looks like he can really defend, run the floor, has athleticism that pops and shows some ability spacing too. Looks raw but as a development prospect with our coaching, he could be a really nice option as a 3/4.

[MettaWorldPanda]

If we're going developmental prospect, could see us looking at Egor Demin if he drops to pick 20. 6'10" and 200lbs guard.

Our last 5 FRP's:

2024, Pick 15 - Kel'el Ware
2023, Pick 18 - Jaime Jaquez Jr
2022, Pick 27 - Nikola Jovic
2020, Pick 20 - Precious Achiuwa
2019, Pick 13 - Tyler Herro

That's not a bad strike rate at all from the mid/late first round.

Pick 20 is early enough to find us a difference maker, particularly in a draft that seems relatively flat from a talent distribution standpoint.

A lot of our needs will depend on what the team is working on from a Free Agency / Trade standpoint, so I'd rather we just focus on taking BPA from a talent perspective and worry about roster and fit at a later juncture.

Based on what I'm reading, these are some of the guys who I'm watching closely:

- Cedric Coward: 21yr old SG/SF. 6'7, 215lbs with 7'2" wingspan. Those are nice measurables. Averaged 17/7/4 and 2.5 stocks. Shot 55% from the floor and 40% from 3 (2.0 makes per). I could see a role as a backup 2/3, but has enough size and length to be a longer term option at the 3 alongside Herro. Looks to be a quality catch and shoot player too, which is important. Perhaps a bit of the Joe Johnson's about him?

- Danny Wolf: 21yr old PF/C. 6'11", 252lbs and 7'2" wingspan. This would be a Rex nightmare pick, but he looks to me like a mixture of Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markannen. Has that passing ability as a big to make the right read, can handle a bit but also a pick and pop option. Could be a nice option to mix and match with Ware to provide different looks and skillsets. My only worry is going with 2 young bigs when we have bigger holes on the roster right now, but he looks like he'll be a solid pro.

- Carter Bryant: 19yr old SF/PF, 6'8" and 215lbs with 6'11" wingspan. This would be the development pick. Looks like he can really defend, run the floor, has athleticism that pops and shows some ability spacing too. Looks raw but as a development prospect with our coaching, he could be a really nice option as a 3/4.

He got a green room invite. He’s going lottery

[lastb1ckman]

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FYI Tankathon is wrong on Jase's age. He's a full year older than Fears. The difference is positional size. Fears is very clearly a lead guard with self-creation and creation for others as his main calling card. He has arguably the best handle in the class and can get anywhere on the court and prove a threat to create offense from there. Jase shines as an offball player and plays a SG/wing game in a PG body.

Yeah that about sums up why he's even in our range now. An undersized SG people hope he can be a pg in the NBA. He's so efficient, smart, and has such good feel for the game that its worth trying to swing if he can.

[lastb1ckman]

If we're going developmental prospect, could see us looking at Egor Demin if he drops to pick 20. 6'10" and 200lbs guard.

Our last 5 FRP's:

2024, Pick 15 - Kel'el Ware
2023, Pick 18 - Jaime Jaquez Jr
2022, Pick 27 - Nikola Jovic
2020, Pick 20 - Precious Achiuwa
2019, Pick 13 - Tyler Herro

That's not a bad strike rate at all from the mid/late first round.

Pick 20 is early enough to find us a difference maker, particularly in a draft that seems relatively flat from a talent distribution standpoint.

A lot of our needs will depend on what the team is working on from a Free Agency / Trade standpoint, so I'd rather we just focus on taking BPA from a talent perspective and worry about roster and fit at a later juncture.

Based on what I'm reading, these are some of the guys who I'm watching closely:

- Cedric Coward: 21yr old SG/SF. 6'7, 215lbs with 7'2" wingspan. Those are nice measurables. Averaged 17/7/4 and 2.5 stocks. Shot 55% from the floor and 40% from 3 (2.0 makes per). I could see a role as a backup 2/3, but has enough size and length to be a longer term option at the 3 alongside Herro. Looks to be a quality catch and shoot player too, which is important. Perhaps a bit of the Joe Johnson's about him?

- Danny Wolf: 21yr old PF/C. 6'11", 252lbs and 7'2" wingspan. This would be a Rex nightmare pick, but he looks to me like a mixture of Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markannen. Has that passing ability as a big to make the right read, can handle a bit but also a pick and pop option. Could be a nice option to mix and match with Ware to provide different looks and skillsets. My only worry is going with 2 young bigs when we have bigger holes on the roster right now, but he looks like he'll be a solid pro.

- Carter Bryant: 19yr old SF/PF, 6'8" and 215lbs with 6'11" wingspan. This would be the development pick. Looks like he can really defend, run the floor, has athleticism that pops and shows some ability spacing too. Looks raw but as a development prospect with our coaching, he could be a really nice option as a 3/4.

He got a green room invite. He’s going lottery

Probably.....tho Bol Bol was a green room invite, and we know what happened there. (That was the one year my folks decided to watch the draft with me, and they felt so bad for him they're Bol Bol fans to this day)

[lastb1ckman]

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Thats too bad. They definitely made themselves some more money in the NBA with this playoff run tho. I'm fully bought in to Saraf atm

[MettaWorldPanda]

If we're going developmental prospect, could see us looking at Egor Demin if he drops to pick 20. 6'10" and 200lbs guard.

Our last 5 FRP's:

2024, Pick 15 - Kel'el Ware
2023, Pick 18 - Jaime Jaquez Jr
2022, Pick 27 - Nikola Jovic
2020, Pick 20 - Precious Achiuwa
2019, Pick 13 - Tyler Herro

That's not a bad strike rate at all from the mid/late first round.

Pick 20 is early enough to find us a difference maker, particularly in a draft that seems relatively flat from a talent distribution standpoint.

A lot of our needs will depend on what the team is working on from a Free Agency / Trade standpoint, so I'd rather we just focus on taking BPA from a talent perspective and worry about roster and fit at a later juncture.

Based on what I'm reading, these are some of the guys who I'm watching closely:

- Cedric Coward: 21yr old SG/SF. 6'7, 215lbs with 7'2" wingspan. Those are nice measurables. Averaged 17/7/4 and 2.5 stocks. Shot 55% from the floor and 40% from 3 (2.0 makes per). I could see a role as a backup 2/3, but has enough size and length to be a longer term option at the 3 alongside Herro. Looks to be a quality catch and shoot player too, which is important. Perhaps a bit of the Joe Johnson's about him?

- Danny Wolf: 21yr old PF/C. 6'11", 252lbs and 7'2" wingspan. This would be a Rex nightmare pick, but he looks to me like a mixture of Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markannen. Has that passing ability as a big to make the right read, can handle a bit but also a pick and pop option. Could be a nice option to mix and match with Ware to provide different looks and skillsets. My only worry is going with 2 young bigs when we have bigger holes on the roster right now, but he looks like he'll be a solid pro.

- Carter Bryant: 19yr old SF/PF, 6'8" and 215lbs with 6'11" wingspan. This would be the development pick. Looks like he can really defend, run the floor, has athleticism that pops and shows some ability spacing too. Looks raw but as a development prospect with our coaching, he could be a really nice option as a 3/4.

He got a green room invite. He’s going lottery

Probably.....tho Bol Bol was a green room invite, and we know what happened there. (That was the one year my folks decided to watch the draft with me, and they felt so bad for him they're Bol Bol fans to this day)

Demin getting a lot of lottery hype. I would be shocked if he dropped to 20.

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[RexBoyWonder]

This is the time of year I need to remind myself that all these future-Allstar looking prospects that just ooze talent on film are more likely to play in china then become difference makers.

Spoiler:

Except whoever we pick at #20 obviously

[twix2500]

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Thats too bad. They definitely made themselves some more money in the NBA with this playoff run tho. I'm fully bought in to Saraf atm

I am ok with drafting Saraf if the Heat are committed and have a game plan on developing him. But the Im concerned about his shooting keeping him from getting mins and he will need to be sent to the G-league for a year. Meanwhile the Heat have no point guard on the roster.

[twix2500]

So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.

No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.





Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

[twix2500]

So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.

No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.





Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

I think the height of him being 6'7 or 6'6 is suspect. He looks like he is around 6'4 or 6'5.

[twix2500]

I didnt point this out because I was waiting to see if all the deep diving would notice his points are coming from free throws. Not in the halfcourt offense. I like that he can get to the free throw line but when he didnt he only scored 4 pts. He is a ball dominate guard that is not a threat to shoot unless its around the rim.

[Kobewade11]

I didnt point this out because I was waiting to see if all the deep diving would notice his points are coming from free throws. Not in the halfcourt offense. I like that he can get to the free throw line but when he didnt he only scored 4 pts. He is a ball dominate guard that is not a threat to shoot unless its around the rim.

yikes

[twix2500]

It alarmed me why teams were sending a slow footed big to defend him WAY out here. It finally dawn on me. Can anyone explain why the coaches was using this strategy and why its successful defending Saraf this way?





Oh wow he passes up an open three, wow the defense goes under, I wonder why?





Make the smart pass not the flashy one. You are not Kobe Bean Bryant that is dunking on a 6'8 defender.



Decision making.

[twix2500]

I will reiterate. This does not mean do not draft Saraf. Its about evaluating his over all NBA readiness

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[greg4012]

So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.

No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.





Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

Not an effective form of communication.

Plenty of people have highlighted obvious areas of concern in Saraf's game and areas of improvement and areas where he needs to prove himself. Your ignoring all of that to feel validated in some position and separate from the "other" is not a good look. You seem bothered that people like the prospect despite areas of concern, as if Miami isn't picking #20 in a draft that's back-end depth has gotten hollowed out due to NIL and other factors. Or as if every back end of 1st round prospect that is 19 years old has been a fully baked player with no areas of improvement. Gotta have that 3:1 ATO ratio, if not...



Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

[greg4012]

So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.

No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.





Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

I think the height of him being 6'7 or 6'6 is suspect. He looks like he is around 6'4 or 6'5.

I'm fairly certain he has measured 6'5 without shoes and around a 6'8 wingspan before. I've always looked at him as a 6'5 PG with SG size.

[greg4012]

I will reiterate. This does not mean do not draft Saraf. Its about evaluating his over all NBA readiness

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That's definitely part of the equation. Also evaluate his projected developmental arc, work ethic, shooting form, easy areas for improvement, targeted areas for improvement, and overall upside.

[twix2500]

So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.

No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.





Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

Not an effective form of communication.

Plenty of people have highlighted obvious areas of concern in Saraf's game and areas of improvement and areas where he needs to prove himself. Your ignoring all of that to feel validated in some position and separate from the "other" is not a good look. You seem bothered that people like the prospect despite areas of concern, as if Miami isn't picking #20 in a draft that's back-end depth has gotten hollowed out due to NIL and other factors. Or as if every back end of 1st round prospect that is 19 years old has been a fully baked player with no areas of improvement. Gotta have that 3:1 ATO ratio, if not...



Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

Not bothered by people liking the prospect. It did annoyed me when I took time to watch film to give my honest breakdown of him, and to try to give some video examples. The response is oh your talking about a player you know nothing about. There is enough highlights of him on here. Trying enlighten people with better context.

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