**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[MettaWorldPanda]

If we don’t start bringing in anyway noteworthy for private workouts here soon i’m going to assume the pick is in trade talks lol. We started workouts last year on June 7th. That’s when a bunch of prospects started coming in for workouts including Ware. Draft is on June 25th.

[twix2500]

Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

I dont expect him to be elite in those areas. But the red flag is that he is terrible in those areas especially in the areas you are supposively drafting to do. You keep saying a 19 year with a 3:1 ration doesnt exist and I showed you one that did and he was draft for his passing. And you keep harping on 3 as the threshold. I never said anything below 3:1 was bad. I told you anything below 2:1 is bad and Saraf was well below 2:1 at 1.68. If Saraf was above 2 and in mid to upper 2 it wouldnt be a concern. Lonzo Ball was drafted for his passing he had a 3:1 asst to to ratio as a freshman. Even his shooting was considered weak and he shot 41% from 3. Saraf shooting is well below 30% consistantly, and his opponents dont respect his shooting. The bad thresholds are the problem and red flag that should definitely concern everyone. Its not like he is putting up gawdy assists numbers. Why is he well below 2:1 a/t ratio, lets look at the tape. Why is he well below 30% from three, lets look at the tape. As a point guard, taking care of the ball and shooting (especially in NBA) is essential.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[greg4012]

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

Not an effective form of communication.

Plenty of people have highlighted obvious areas of concern in Saraf's game and areas of improvement and areas where he needs to prove himself. Your ignoring all of that to feel validated in some position and separate from the "other" is not a good look. You seem bothered that people like the prospect despite areas of concern, as if Miami isn't picking #20 in a draft that's back-end depth has gotten hollowed out due to NIL and other factors. Or as if every back end of 1st round prospect that is 19 years old has been a fully baked player with no areas of improvement. Gotta have that 3:1 ATO ratio, if not...



Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

Not bothered by people liking the prospect. It did annoyed me when I took time to watch film to give my honest breakdown of him, and to try to give some video examples. The response is oh your talking about a player you know nothing about. There is enough highlights of him on here. Trying enlighten people with better context.

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Seems like a huge generalization and sensitive reaction. I get it. I've been guilty of the same.

I think most people were pointing out the context of what stats in those leagues look like in general, what the competition levels are between leagues, and how that often compares to more standardized assessments of college prospects. Or did you download a full understanding of the context of each international league in the hours between when you indicated you don't know about them and now?

Not sure I saw wholesale rejection of any of your points. They just weren't celebrated as a holy grail of new information either.

[greg4012]

Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

I dont expect him to be elite in those areas. But the red flag is that he is terrible in those areas especially in the areas you are supposively drafting to do. You keep saying a 19 year with a 3:1 ration doesnt exist and I showed you one that did and he was draft for his passing. And you keep harping on 3 as the threshold. I never said anything below 3:1 was bad. I told you anything below 2:1 is bad and Saraf was well below 2:1 at 1.68. If Saraf was above 2 and in mid to upper 2 it wouldnt be a concern. Lonzo Ball was drafted for his passing he had a 3:1 asst to to ratio as a freshman. Even his shooting was considered weak and he shot 41% from 3. Saraf shooting is well below 30% consistantly, and his opponents dont respect his shooting. The bad thresholds are the problem and red flag that should definitely concern everyone. Its not like he is putting up gawdy assists numbers. Why is he well below 2:1 a/t ratio, lets look at the tape. Why is he well below 30% from three, lets look at the tape. As a point guard, taking care of the ball and shooting (especially in NBA) is essential.

So you contend, there hasn't been a positive 19-year old passing prospect in the draft since Lonzo Ball (drafted #2 overall) in 2017?

I think you're getting lost in your own world. Saraf is not "well below 30% from three". So look at the tape all you want for that.

This is getting a little strange. Why exaggerate and change the numbers to drag the prospect. Let’s stick to facts and keep emotions out of it

[twix2500]

Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

I dont expect him to be elite in those areas. But the red flag is that he is terrible in those areas especially in the areas you are supposively drafting to do. You keep saying a 19 year with a 3:1 ration doesnt exist and I showed you one that did and he was draft for his passing. And you keep harping on 3 as the threshold. I never said anything below 3:1 was bad. I told you anything below 2:1 is bad and Saraf was well below 2:1 at 1.68. If Saraf was above 2 and in mid to upper 2 it wouldnt be a concern. Lonzo Ball was drafted for his passing he had a 3:1 asst to to ratio as a freshman. Even his shooting was considered weak and he shot 41% from 3. Saraf shooting is well below 30% consistantly, and his opponents dont respect his shooting. The bad thresholds are the problem and red flag that should definitely concern everyone. Its not like he is putting up gawdy assists numbers. Why is he well below 2:1 a/t ratio, lets look at the tape. Why is he well below 30% from three, lets look at the tape. As a point guard, taking care of the ball and shooting (especially in NBA) is essential.

So you contend, there hasn't been a positive 19-year old passing prospect in the draft since Lonzo Ball (drafted #2 overall) in 2017?

I think you're getting lost in your own world. Saraf is not "well below 30% from three". So look at the tape all you want for that.

This is getting a little strange. Why exaggerate and change the numbers to drag the prospect. Let’s stick to facts and keep emotions out of it

Fine continue digging into stats that you don't understand to make you feel good about a prospect.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[greg4012]

I dont expect him to be elite in those areas. But the red flag is that he is terrible in those areas especially in the areas you are supposively drafting to do. You keep saying a 19 year with a 3:1 ration doesnt exist and I showed you one that did and he was draft for his passing. And you keep harping on 3 as the threshold. I never said anything below 3:1 was bad. I told you anything below 2:1 is bad and Saraf was well below 2:1 at 1.68. If Saraf was above 2 and in mid to upper 2 it wouldnt be a concern. Lonzo Ball was drafted for his passing he had a 3:1 asst to to ratio as a freshman. Even his shooting was considered weak and he shot 41% from 3. Saraf shooting is well below 30% consistantly, and his opponents dont respect his shooting. The bad thresholds are the problem and red flag that should definitely concern everyone. Its not like he is putting up gawdy assists numbers. Why is he well below 2:1 a/t ratio, lets look at the tape. Why is he well below 30% from three, lets look at the tape. As a point guard, taking care of the ball and shooting (especially in NBA) is essential.

So you contend, there hasn't been a positive 19-year old passing prospect in the draft since Lonzo Ball (drafted #2 overall) in 2017?

I think you're getting lost in your own world. Saraf is not "well below 30% from three". So look at the tape all you want for that.

This is getting a little strange. Why exaggerate and change the numbers to drag the prospect. Let’s stick to facts and keep emotions out of it

Fine continue digging into stats that you don't understand to make you feel good about a prospect.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That’s not what I’ve been doing. Only stats that I have been discussing that I don’t understand are those you’re making up (“well below 30% from 3”—def don’t understand that nonsense). But, go off with it if makes you feel better. While your projecting falsities, I genuinely hope all is OK with you.

[twix2500]

So you contend, there hasn't been a positive 19-year old passing prospect in the draft since Lonzo Ball (drafted #2 overall) in 2017?

I think you're getting lost in your own world. Saraf is not "well below 30% from three". So look at the tape all you want for that.

This is getting a little strange. Why exaggerate and change the numbers to drag the prospect. Let’s stick to facts and keep emotions out of it

Fine continue digging into stats that you don't understand to make you feel good about a prospect.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That’s not what I’ve been doing. Only stats that I have been discussing that I don’t understand are those you’re making up (“well below 30% from 3”—def don’t understand that nonsense). But, go off with it if makes you feel better. While your projecting falsities, I genuinely hope all is OK with you.

Keep deep diving in his 3 pt shooting maybe you will find something to feel good about. So you can project some fantasy.

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[greg4012]

Fine continue digging into stats that you don't understand to make you feel good about a prospect.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That’s not what I’ve been doing. Only stats that I have been discussing that I don’t understand are those you’re making up (“well below 30% from 3”—def don’t understand that nonsense). But, go off with it if makes you feel better. While your projecting falsities, I genuinely hope all is OK with you.

Keep deep diving in his 3 pt shooting maybe you will find something to feel good about. So you can project some fantasy.

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What?

[lastb1ckman]

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Thats too bad. They definitely made themselves some more money in the NBA with this playoff run tho. I'm fully bought in to Saraf atm

I am ok with drafting Saraf if the Heat are committed and have a game plan on developing him. But the Im concerned about his shooting keeping him from getting mins and he will need to be sent to the G-league for a year. Meanwhile the Heat have no point guard on the roster.

That'll be probably most guys taken at this spot unfortunately. Except maybe like Walter Clayton. He seems nba ready out the gate.

[lastb1ckman]

I glad like someone corrected me that everything in my analysis is wrong about Saraf. Even this tendency that I pointed out is wrong, but its just some random coincidence this happened to him again in his 4 pt game yesterday. But no it not worthy to point out. Just speak of him as a dominate clutch player.

For a 6'6 or 6'7 players, he doesnt use his height to shoot over anyone. One he is not a good shooter so he is reluctant to take a jumper in general. But even around the rim he is not a great athlete and plays under the rim.

Not an effective form of communication.

Plenty of people have highlighted obvious areas of concern in Saraf's game and areas of improvement and areas where he needs to prove himself. Your ignoring all of that to feel validated in some position and separate from the "other" is not a good look. You seem bothered that people like the prospect despite areas of concern, as if Miami isn't picking #20 in a draft that's back-end depth has gotten hollowed out due to NIL and other factors. Or as if every back end of 1st round prospect that is 19 years old has been a fully baked player with no areas of improvement. Gotta have that 3:1 ATO ratio, if not...



Only problem is that the 19 year old with a 3:1 ato ratio doesn't exist. Nor does the 19 year old that can get into the paint at a high rate AND is already a refined 3pt shooter.

Drafting youth = developmental.

You seem to be more focused exclusively on the draft's impact on next season (rather than investing in 5+ seasons). That's the real disconnect here IMO. Next season is very likely to be a full-blown developmental season for Miami anyways.

Not bothered by people liking the prospect. It did annoyed me when I took time to watch film to give my honest breakdown of him, and to try to give some video examples. The response is oh your talking about a player you know nothing about. There is enough highlights of him on here. Trying enlighten people with better context.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

These are all legitimate problems with Saraf's game. Though personally, I feel like there's enough positives for the heat to invest in. I don't expect him to play serious minutes on the Heat until at the earliest year 2. He's probably going to be available at 20 for a reason. The swing skill is going to be his shooting coming along so guards can't go under screens and opposing teams can't hide bigs on him.

[greg4012]

A little more deep diving prompted by the lively discussion on here.

There have been 61 guards drafted in the first round in the past 5 draft classes. Out of those 61 first round draft picks, 9 have had an A:TO ratio of 2 or higher (none reached the threshold of 3). Only 3 of those 9 were 19 years old or younger in the pre-draft season where they hit that mark.

Out of the 61 first round draft pick guards in the past 5 draft classes, 20 have matched or exceed Ben Saraf's mark from this past season of 1.58. Out of those 20, only 9 were 19 years old or younger in the pre-draft season where they hit that mark. 2 of those 9 had an assist percentage of less than 20%.

Note: assist percentage reflects the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while on the floor

Zero of the 61 first round draft pick guards in the past 5 draft classes had an assist percentage as high as Ben Saraf's mark from this season at ~32%. Caveat that I was not able to find the assist percentage for Nikola Topic or Lamelo Ball. I'd bet that one or both of them matched or exceeded the 32% assist percentage. Of course, it's worth noting that the Australian league in which Lamelo played pails in comparison to the German League and Eurocup competition.

TBH I personally put more emphasis on the assist percentage data point than I do A:TO ratio for young guard prospects as I want them to push their limits in development. Also, it doesn't tell me a ton about a player's lead guard prospects if they have a nice A:TO ratio, but the rate at which they handle the ball and create for others is low (example: Devin Vassell is one of the 3 players 19 or younger that hit the 2.0 ATO threshold, but he was an offball player with an assist percentage of 11%).

If I had more time and resources, I'd want to go even further into this and look into the relation between Assist percentage and Usage percentage for comparison, as well.

[RexBoyWonder]

Thats too bad. They definitely made themselves some more money in the NBA with this playoff run tho. I'm fully bought in to Saraf atm

I am ok with drafting Saraf if the Heat are committed and have a game plan on developing him. But the Im concerned about his shooting keeping him from getting mins and he will need to be sent to the G-league for a year. Meanwhile the Heat have no point guard on the roster.

That'll be probably most guys taken at this spot unfortunately. Except maybe like Walter Clayton. He seems nba ready out the gate.

He seems to be ready to be a third string NBA PG that can't create or defend but can shoot, His ceiling is Patty Mills.

I rather go the un-ready rout in this case.

[lastb1ckman]

I am ok with drafting Saraf if the Heat are committed and have a game plan on developing him. But the Im concerned about his shooting keeping him from getting mins and he will need to be sent to the G-league for a year. Meanwhile the Heat have no point guard on the roster.

That'll be probably most guys taken at this spot unfortunately. Except maybe like Walter Clayton. He seems nba ready out the gate.

He seems to be ready to be a third string NBA PG that can't create or defend but can shoot, His ceiling is Patty Mills.

I rather go the un-ready rout in this case.

Tbh, I think Walter Clayton can definitely create at the next level. The type of shots he made and offense he was running in college screams a 6th man spark plug. He's just too skilled to just be a catch and shoot guy.

[greg4012]

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Sam Vecenie is better at this than most and provides nice tidbits on the prospects. Can access his draft guide for free via NYT link with password provided.

[twix2500]

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[twix2500]

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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Not one top 30 prospect has seen our arena for a workout yet. This time last year Ware, Keshad, and others had worked out already. We might not be making this pick

[RexBoyWonder]

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Not one top 30 prospect has seen our arena for a workout yet. This time last year Ware, Keshad, and others had worked out already. We might not be making this pick

It's very wired. None of the players linked to us is even draft worthy IMO. They're not even second round level talents, it's like we're scouting for Skyforce.

Which makes no sense, you can't take a risk a potential trade doesn't end up getting finalized.

Then what are you doing when the clock is ticking and it's pick #20 coming up?

[lastb1ckman]

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Not one top 30 prospect has seen our arena for a workout yet. This time last year Ware, Keshad, and others had worked out already. We might not be making this pick

It's very wired. None of the players linked to us is even draft worthy IMO. They're not even second round level talents, it's like we're scouting for Skyforce.

Which makes no sense, you can't take a risk a potential trade doesn't end up getting finalized.

Then what are you doing when the clock is ticking and it's pick #20 coming up?

Eh, I think they can be given the benefit of the doubt regarding scouting draft picks. They're gonna do their due diligence, especially since we know they've been at a bunch of workouts already. Like we know they're aware of guys like Clayton. Tbh, I wouldn't be suprised if they've worked out more folks, but it hasn't gotten out yet.