2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (Series tied 2-2)

[tsherkin]

The other thing they did was put him in a ton of action on the defensive end and make him work OT. Also, abused him quite a bit there.

Haven't fact checked it because I'm at work, but I did see someone say he has a 70% blow by rate on drives defensively in the finals.

All in all, he will be tired at the end of the game. Same thing the Pacers did with Brunson, and Mitchell.

Yeah, I saw the graphic of that 70% stacked next to Luka's 67%.

He looked tired at the end, for sure, and they've been putting him to work, no doubt.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Sonics won in 1979 being the lower seed, after losing G1. So they were 2-1, and won. That on top of my head, so I doubt that stat.

That was under the 2-3-2 format. It was changed to 2-2-1-1 recently in 2014 so that stat itself is useless

Nah, he's right. Seattle was the road team, and they were up 2-1. It was 2-2-1-1-1 from 1947-1985. Lakers/Celtics cross country travel made them do the 2-3-2.

Yeah, the original tweeter either doesn't know history, or didn't make it clear that they meant no team has done it since the Finals switched BACK to 2-2-1-1-1 in 2014.

I just went through all history, and it shakes out like this. These are the teams from 1947 to 1984 who took a 2-1 lead without HCA, and the result of the series:

1948 Baltimore Bullets(won)
1950 Lakers(won)
1957 Hawks(lost)
1958 Hawks(won)
1962 Lakers(lost)
1973 Knicks(won)
1974 Celtics(won)
1975 Warriors(won - this wasn't a 2-1 lead, they flat out swept the higher seeded Bullets)
1979 Sonics(won)
1982 Lakers(won)
1984 Lakers(lost)

And these are the teams from 2014 to present who have taken a 2-1 lead without HCA, and the result of the series:

2015 Cavs(lost)
2022 Celtics(lost)

(Incidentally, they both lost to Steph and the Warriors.)

So in all history, it's actually a winning record - 7-5(8-5 if you include the 75 Warriors sweep) - for lower-seeded teams up 2-1 in the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

NOTE: Some of the above teams were technically higher-seeded(or the two teams had the same numerical seed) but did NOT have HCA, and the lack of HCA is what really matters here, so I counted them.

[Iwasawitness]

No, they wouldn't. OKC is a better team on both ends of the floor with a significantly better bench and much better coaching. It would be a slaughter. You don't have to be the best team on the past 20 years to be better than the 2011 Heat either. They weren't even the best team that season, let alone the last 20 years.

Which finals teams in the last 20 years could beat this juggernaut monster of an unbeatable team that happens to be down 2-1 currently to the 4th seed Pacers?

I'm curious who you think can topple them? If anyone.

I should be the one asking you this, since you're pretending an above average team could beat them.

[Sharkboy242]

My Pacers are shocking the NBA world

[fanofthegreats]

Okc is roving what we all knew- regular season team.

[TheGOATWill]

I say it every year. The finals will turn on a star player running out of gas or a role player coming to life. Or both.

Last year Luka faded , White made an extra 50 million dollars. Year before was the whole Heat team, Bruce Brown became a somebody. Jaylen Brown got the yips, Andrew Wiggins looked like an overall number 1 pick. And on...

SGA re-entered the game with 10 minutes left in the 4th, went 1/3, had a weird travel and lost Nesmith on a 3 with about 3 minutes left, which for my money was the shot of the game. For the first time all year, SGA looked tired. Meanwhile, nobody can stay in front of TJ McConnell. Not ready to bury OKC but they need Daigneault to have another pitch tomorrow if the fast ball ain't working.

[NyKnicks1714]

Okc is roving what we all knew- regular season team.

What? They're in the Finals. And if Hali misses his shot and they're up 2-1 right now, you wouldn't say this.

[MrPainfulTruth]

I don't know if I've ever seen a team that's as good at ball pressure as they are without giving up open looks. I'm not quite sure how they're doing it.

It's quite impressive.

The thunder haven’t really been in gritty tooth and nail games compared to the pacers. If the thunder win the series it is because they win games handily. If it is a close 2 or 3 possessions game, I overwhelmingly favor the pacers. They are composed and we seen the thunder miss free throws, miss game sealing plays more than most championship teams.

They had some tough ones against the Nuggets, but it wasn't quite the same, for sure. And as you note, the composure OKC has been displaying at the line is troublesome.

It's been a feisty series.

Nuggets were much, much easier to game plan for because basically noone showed up but Jokic and they were allowed to hack and grab and foul for all but one game. They cant really focus on anyone on the pacers, they are a deep, well leveled team and you cant tell who gets hot when. I wonder who had mathurin on their scouting report. It didnt look like they had any idea who he is

[tsherkin]

Nuggets were much, much easier to game plan for because basically noone showed up but Jokic and they were allowed to hack and grab and foul for all but one game. They cant really focus on anyone on the pacers, they are a deep, well leveled team and you cant tell who gets hot when. I wonder who had mathurin on their scouting report. It didnt look like they had any idea who he is

Yeah, sure, and even when they dialed up their defense, they didn't look quite like this, for sure. And yes, the Pacers are considerably less unipolar, and they can enter their offense without Hali initiating, which is more problematic than dealing with Denver, no doubt.

[MrPainfulTruth]

Nuggets were much, much easier to game plan for because basically noone showed up but Jokic and they were allowed to hack and grab and foul for all but one game. They cant really focus on anyone on the pacers, they are a deep, well leveled team and you cant tell who gets hot when. I wonder who had mathurin on their scouting report. It didnt look like they had any idea who he is

Yeah, sure, and even when they dialed up their defense, they didn't look quite like this, for sure. And yes, the Pacers are considerably less unipolar, and they can enter their offense without Hali initiating, which is more problematic than dealing with Denver, no doubt.

This version of Denver, where the two max players basically disappeared and Gordon, Braun und the corpse of Westbrook were the only help he got. I believe with a little bit more, Denver would have won it all. But thats another topic.

[tsherkin]

Nuggets were much, much easier to game plan for because basically noone showed up but Jokic and they were allowed to hack and grab and foul for all but one game. They cant really focus on anyone on the pacers, they are a deep, well leveled team and you cant tell who gets hot when. I wonder who had mathurin on their scouting report. It didnt look like they had any idea who he is

Yeah, sure, and even when they dialed up their defense, they didn't look quite like this, for sure. And yes, the Pacers are considerably less unipolar, and they can enter their offense without Hali initiating, which is more problematic than dealing with Denver, no doubt.

This version of Denver, where the two max players basically disappeared and Gordon, Braun und the corpse of Westbrook were the only help he got. I believe with a little bit more, Denver would have won it all. But thats another topic.

Yes, I think that if he'd had a shade more help, such as if MPJ hadn't been injured in the OKC series, we'd have seen a different outcome, no doubt.

[wang000hk]

Nuggets were much, much easier to game plan for because basically noone showed up but Jokic and they were allowed to hack and grab and foul for all but one game. They cant really focus on anyone on the pacers, they are a deep, well leveled team and you cant tell who gets hot when. I wonder who had mathurin on their scouting report. It didnt look like they had any idea who he is

Yeah, sure, and even when they dialed up their defense, they didn't look quite like this, for sure. And yes, the Pacers are considerably less unipolar, and they can enter their offense without Hali initiating, which is more problematic than dealing with Denver, no doubt.

This version of Denver, where the two max players basically disappeared and Gordon, Braun und the corpse of Westbrook were the only help he got. I believe with a little bit more, Denver would have won it all. But thats another topic.

No chance Denver gets past Wolves

[Bobbymcgee]

Pacers are the better team.

Only thing saving the Thunder so far is the FT disparity.

Pacers just need to stay aggressive and OKC will fold.

[Calvin Klein]

Okc is roving what we all knew- regular season team.

they are in the finals?

[tsherkin]

No chance Denver gets past Wolves

That seems unlikely. They'd taken them to 7 the year before and Randle vs. KAT wasn't going to be the difference-maker rendering them an impossible beat, providing for health and such.

[jkvonny]

I called for a split at Indiana (Games 3 and 4) a few days ago. And will stick with that. Leaning OKC in game 4.

With that being said..... Pacers could win game 4! And OKC would be in a 3-1 hole.
Pacers with HCA, momentum, better coach , deep bench (like OKC). Who knows?!
Pacers migh be out for blood.

At this point, must win game for OKC. As talented as OKC is. And could vote back from 3-1 deficit. Dont want to take thst chance.
Indy is very tuff, disciplined and well coached.

OKC has to blow out the Pacers.. Pacers are more trustworthy in close games, more clutch and experienced.

[jkvonny]

Sonics won in 1979 being the lower seed, after losing G1. So they were 2-1, and won. That on top of my head, so I doubt that stat.

That was under the 2-3-2 format. It was changed to 2-2-1-1 recently in 2014 so that stat itself is useless

Nah, he's right. Seattle was the road team, and they were up 2-1. It was 2-2-1-1-1 from 1947-1985. Lakers/Celtics cross country travel made them do the 2-3-2.

This is true.
The current format was done decades ago. Until the mid '80s they switched it to the 2-3-2 , thanks to the Lakers/Celtics annual rivalry NBA Finals Coast to coast cross country travel. Went for almost 2 more decades.
Then recently last decade went back to the 2-2-1-1-1

[Lunartic]

No, they wouldn't. OKC is a better team on both ends of the floor with a significantly better bench and much better coaching. It would be a slaughter. You don't have to be the best team on the past 20 years to be better than the 2011 Heat either. They weren't even the best team that season, let alone the last 20 years.

Which finals teams in the last 20 years could beat this juggernaut monster of an unbeatable team that happens to be down 2-1 currently to the 4th seed Pacers?

I'm curious who you think can topple them? If anyone.

I should be the one asking you this, since you're pretending an above average team could beat them.

I was already clear which teams I think could beat OKC, and you know that. But here;

2012 Heat
2014 Spurs
2016/17 GSW would destroy them
2018 Raptors
2021 Nuggets
2024 Celtics

And I would include the '24 Mavericks given the fact that they actually beat them

Your turn, which teams do you think can beat OKC?

[jkvonny]

That was under the 2-3-2 format. It was changed to 2-2-1-1 recently in 2014 so that stat itself is useless

Nah, he's right. Seattle was the road team, and they were up 2-1. It was 2-2-1-1-1 from 1947-1985. Lakers/Celtics cross country travel made them do the 2-3-2.

Yeah, the original tweeter either doesn't know history, or didn't make it clear that they meant no team has done it since the Finals switched BACK to 2-2-1-1-1 in 2014.

I just went through all history, and it shakes out like this. These are the teams from 1947 to 1984 who took a 2-1 lead without HCA, and the result of the series:

1948 Baltimore Bullets(won)
1950 Lakers(won)
1957 Hawks(lost)
1958 Hawks(won)
1962 Lakers(lost)
1973 Knicks(won)
1974 Celtics(won)
1975 Warriors(won - this wasn't a 2-1 lead, they flat out swept the higher seeded Bullets)
1979 Sonics(won)
1982 Lakers(won)
1984 Lakers(lost)

And these are the teams from 2014 to present who have taken a 2-1 lead without HCA, and the result of the series:

2015 Cavs(lost)
2022 Celtics(lost)

(Incidentally, they both lost to Steph and the Warriors.)

So in all history, it's actually a winning record - 7-5(8-5 if you include the 75 Warriors sweep) - for lower-seeded teams up 2-1 in the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

NOTE: Some of the above teams were technically higher-seeded(or the two teams had the same numerical seed) but did NOT have HCA, and the lack of HCA is what really matters here, so I counted them.

Great post!

[Patches Perry]

Okc is roving what we all knew- regular season team.

they are in the finals?

Yeah but if they get past this round they'll never get past the next one.