Post#187 » by Hoops Addict » Wed Jun 11, 2025 10:32 pm
The Ringer has Ace Baily at #5.
Bailey is among the most talented pure shotmakers to come through college basketball in the past decade. He looks more like an NBA wing than perhaps anyone else in this draft, with the height and wingspan to thrive at the next level, but it’s his head-to-toe flexibility that truly makes his scoring stand out. He’s lean and rubbery and has narrow shoulders, and although his hands are on the smaller side, he has nice mobility for his size. Altogether, his physical tools should make him a high-level finisher in the NBA—he can best defenders on the ground with creative footwork, or in the air by contorting his way to difficult angles.
The shot looks smooth: His release point is high, he has zero problem elevating over the top of the defender, and he has good touch and consistent and repeatable shot mechanics. The jumper is Ace’s ace in the hole in any given situation, and he’s gone to it repeatedly this season at Rutgers, typically in the midrange. He had to push that easy button frequently because hardly anything was easy within that Scarlet Knights offense; beyond Dylan Harper, his team was not exactly teeming with playmakers or offensive threats who could draw attention away from him.
The book on bothering Bailey at this point is to crowd him, and it hit the bestseller list in Big Ten play. You can be the wiggliest, most athletic player in the world, but the ball has to come to you. Against pressure his handle was often wobbly on his hand and rolling up his wrist, and as a result his decision-making plummeted. This led to some abysmal assist-to-turnover and assist-to-usage numbers and also kept him away from the rim and the free throw line. Yet, somehow, he was still able to wow us—splashing right-shoulder spins in the midrange, one-dribble pull-ups with two and three defenders draped over him, overhand short-range runners or hooks. I don’t know that he’ll ever evolve into a dynamic hub of offense, but with some added strength and weight, he should put up points well into his career.
The worries about Bailey’s limitations in the face of pressure will be lessened if he creates a positive trade-off on the defensive end. Luckily, he’s already started on that path. He can really contort and sit as low as necessary to move with smaller handlers while also extending to dissuade would-be shooters as he’s closing on them. His supplemental rim protection is rare for a player of his size and offensive potential. Ace may be best suited to follow the example of Jaden McDaniels and leverage his physical tools to become a defensive terror—only, with much, much more to offer on offense. He still has the upside to develop into a primary option on offense, but if that doesn’t pan out, becoming a rangy merchant of havoc isn’t a bad fallback option.