2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Wizenheimer]

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And here is how POR peels off JSJ for a vet or 2, plus future pick (29’ worst)?

I wouldn't put any credit in anything Sidery says. He seems like just another wannabe throwing darts at a board

[Tim Lehrbach]

I'm not sure why the Blazers would invest in Jabari Smith. He's not great and doesn't fill any need.

[dckingsfan]

Here's a question, just thinking aloud... how good do we think the frontcourt can be next year? Deni and Camara are of course both excellent forwards, Clingan was super promising as a rookie and should improve, and Grant and Ayton are, uh, there. Even the deep bench has upside if Timelord is healthy and Walker returns.

Reason I'm asking is because we all know Portland needs a dynamic #1 guy, and we'd all love for that guy to be a big wing or guard, but if we're already covered with a really good frontcourt, maybe it actually is time for a major move. If I've underestimated the ceiling of our bigs and forwards, could making a big splash move using other available assets vault us higher than I've heretofore imagined?

Like, I was saying in the draft thread that it might be cool to come away from the draft with Traore and Coward. If they and either Simons or Banton, plus Thybulle, represent our depth, we've still got Scoot, Shaedon, and other assets like future picks to trade for a major piece.

I haven't supported that path because I didn't envision the resulting roster being good enough to justify pushing the chips in. But what if Camara/Deni/Clingan + depth is totally awesome and the return for our trade assets is greater than I imagined?

I don't really know what kind of response I'm looking for. Just expressing some hope on a Thursday afternoon.

I am going to go for the optimistic scenario.

Indeed Deni does move into being an all=star or borderline one. Camara makes another jump and I think that is more probable than not. And then Billups decides to stay with his D first mantra and goes with a three forward starting rotation of Avdija, Camara and Grant.

Billups then plays a heavy dose of Clingan with Ayton. Ayton steps up his D or loses some of his minutes.

Simons still gets the start (smh) but Scoot eats into his minutes.

Off the bench, Thybulle continues where he left off and Sharpe plays hard in his contract year. And magic happens and Cronin picks a player that can contribute right out of the gate. We increase our win count by another 8 or so and we are solidly in the playin.

Cronin in the mean time does the right thing and tries to get assets for Ayton, Simons and Sharpe at the trade deadline. And we continue a slow rise in the west topping out at 45-50 wins.

My optimistic take.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Yeah, there's a plausible scenario where the team shows continued improvement and does shed the veterans either by trade or free agency. The real Tim Lehrbach is not counting on it, but today's Tim wants to believe.

The reason I'm posting about it so much today is because the "good" scenario comes with a tremendous opportunity to make bold moves to set the improving team up for a bright future, which will be squandered if Cronin merely inks everybody to unearned extensions. So, it's time to think not only about life after Ayton and Simons, but possibly Scoot and Shaedon as well. But as others have pointed out, this isn't terribly realistic. GMs don't operate this way... unless a star breaks out of another team, which could compel Portland to part with its backcourt kids.

[Walton1one]

I'm not sure why the Blazers would invest in Jabari Smith. He's not great and doesn't fill any need.

Not saying I disagree, but very good tools and coming up on a 2nd contract, former #3 pick, minutes restricted by players ahead of him, won’t turn 23 until next May, all this makes him a player to consider betting on the upside

[Tim Lehrbach]

I'm not sure why the Blazers would invest in Jabari Smith. He's not great and doesn't fill any need.

Not saying I disagree, but very good tools and coming up on a 2nd contract, former #3 pick, minutes restricted by players ahead of him, won’t turn 23 until next May, all this makes him a player to consider betting on the upside

I guess I am both skeptical about his upside and cynical about the extensions players coming off their rookie-scale deals tend to get. I don't want to both trade assets for Smith and fork over $120 million for his extension if I'm the Blazers.

[Walton1one]

Let’s say HOU sent Green, JSJ, Whitmore & Holiday to PHX for Durant, no picks


Then PHX sent JSJ & Allen to POR for Thybulle, Williams, Reath & 29’ 1st (worst) in separate deals:

JSJ for Thybulle + 29’ 1st
Allen for Williams & Reath

That could help PHX depth, provide talented youth & some vets to put around Booker and net them a future pick

Something like that for a framework, Allen has a few (3) years left, both Williams/Thybulle\Reath are all expiring, so it could help PHX more after next season plus they get a future pick, and two young guys in Green and Whitmore, and adding Green makes Allen superfluous, and they still get to keep the #10 pick, as well as their future picks

POR picks up JSJ, gets a little shooting with Allen, and keeps the #11 pick, they give away a future first, but I would think they would be able to give the worst of the 29 picks and if they had to throw in one of the MIL swaps or a future lottery protected first, they may do it

[DusterBuster]

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And here is how POR peels off JSJ for a vet or 2, plus future pick (29’ worst)?

I wouldn't put any credit in anything Sidery says. He seems like just another wannabe throwing darts at a board

Yeah, I unfollowed him myself. His sources just seem to be other Twitter accounts any of us can find.

That said, I do think Houston makes the most sense for KD at this point of his career that he can help the most.

[DusterBuster]

Dallas getting Flagg and SA getting the #2 pick and a full year of Fox is not going to help that cause...

DAL finished @ #10
SA @ #13, behind POR
PHX tied with POR @ #11/12
NO finished #14 with a host of injuries, doubt that happens again

So PHX drops below, NO can't overcome POR, SA passes POR all some version of likely (SA) to could happen (PHX\NO), that places POR @ #12

I would wager SAC @ #9 would drop below DAL & SA (likely) and possibly POR, so now POR is @ #11.

Who else is dropping pas POR?

Memphis? Golden State? Doubtful on either IMO. SO, POR is hoping for a team above them to undergo an injury filled campaign like NO just did, and of course that they remain relatively injury free, likelihood of that? Small...

This of course also assumes that POR play at the end of the year was not a fluke, byproduct of the schedule and teams injured\playing for lotto balls, which may may not be the case next year.

I get it… I also have watched the NBA enough that it’s foolish to assume too much. Some teams you don’t expect always end up flaming out that you’re counting in right now.

For example, AD could miss the whole season after an injury in December, Flagg could be less than expected and Mavs may be a lot more mid than it looks. Mavs also have a terrible strength and conditioning staff, so they’re always injured… that shows no signs of changing.

Long story short, sports betting is a thing for a reason, and it’s because none of us can predict the future.

[Walton1one]

Of course, since this is all fantasy basketball trades, I would hope that POR would follow that up by trading Simons to ORL for Isaac, Anthony, #16 & maybe #25 as well or one of their (2) 2nd’s?

#11 Jakucionis or Demin
#16 Essengue\Riley\McNeeley or Coward
#25 or #46. ???

PG Scoot, Anthony, Demin\Jakucionis
SG Sharpe, Allen, Rupert
SF Camara, Grant (for now), #16
PF Avdija, JSJ, Walker
C Ayton, Clingan, Isaac

Core 10: Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni, DA, DC, JSJ, Grant, Allen & either Anthony (for next year only) or Demin/Jakucionis

[DusterBuster]

I got a possible ... maybe realistic Grant trade?

Grant to Chicago for Patterson and Huerter? As part of the trade, the Blazers lower the protection on their pick owed to Chicago down to only Top 6 protected... maybe 8 or 10 (negotiable for whatever works). Maybe Chicago throws in some seconds.

Grant would be an upgrade for Chicago - who's never shown an appetite for fully bottoming out - their ownership is more than fine collecting the extra money from play-in games even if it keeps them a treadmill. This also increases the chances the pick the Blazers owe them gets conveyed before it goes into 2nd rounders in 2029.

For Portland, this potentially extinguishes Olshey's disaster sooner... probably means they lose the pick and potentially even a late lottery pick, but to be unshackled by the shadow of Olshey sooner is something I'm personally OK with. Also, the Blazers get to cut half of Grant's salary, and Patterson is a more clear-cut backup, clearing the way for Deni to be the full-time PF without issue.

There's an off-chance maybe even the Bulls would do this deal without renegotiating the pick protection?... Because of their success to end the season, maybe they would do this for the upgrade to be more competitive? Bulls owners are notoriously cheap tho, so if they're taking on extra salary, I'm assuming they would ask for something to make it worth their while.

[BlazersBroncos]

Of course, since this is all fantasy basketball trades, I would hope that POR would follow that up by trading Simons to ORL for Isaac, Anthony, #16 & maybe #25 as well or one of their (2) 2nd’s?

#11 Jakucionis or Demin
#16 Essengue\Riley\McNeeley or Coward
#25 or #46. ???

PG Scoot, Anthony, Demin\Jakucionis
SG Sharpe, Allen, Rupert
SF Camara, Grant (for now), #16
PF Avdija, JSJ, Walker
C Ayton, Clingan, Isaac

Core 10: Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni, DA, DC, JSJ, Grant, Allen & either Anthony (for next year only) or Demin/Jakucionis

I dont understand the targeting of JSJ.

I find it very hard to see him as eclipsing Deni or Camara for a starting F slot. So your paying a high variable FRP for a projected backup who is young enough and a high enough draft pick to command big money - and likely to get a overpay RFA offer from a cap space team if we let him hit that. Its likely he gets 20-25M offers in FA and thats a whole bunch of money to be paying a backup (Not to mention we already have a projected backup F in Grant making 30M+ - assuming JSJ gets a middle value between 20-25 of 22M after this year - your looking at JSJ and Grant as 2 bench players making a combined 55M).

I would rather just keep that FRP.

[dckingsfan]

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/grizzlies-targeting-deni-avdija/

[Tim Lehrbach]

Can't imagine an interesting offer for Deni from Memphis, but maybe I lack imagination.

[DusterBuster]

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/grizzlies-targeting-deni-avdija/

I clicked through to read the article...

Once I saw the term "The highly competitive Chauncey Billups and Scoot Henderson-led Trail Blazers" used by the author to describe Portland, I promptly left the site and filed that piece firmly in the garbage bin of my mind.

[BlazersBroncos]

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/grizzlies-targeting-deni-avdija/

I clicked through to read the article...

Once I saw the term "The highly competitive Chauncey Billups and Scoot Henderson-led Trail Blazers" used by the author to describe Portland, I promptly left the site and filed that piece firmly in the garbage bin of my mind.

Probably AI written lol

[PDXKnight]

Can't imagine an interesting offer for Deni from Memphis, but maybe I lack imagination.

A superpackage of firsts and id sign. But thats about it

[dckingsfan]

I just found it to be "fascinating"... let's you know the level of rumors flying around this time of year.

[Case2012]

"The Grizzlies would likely need to part with multiple first-round draft picks and potentially young talent like GG Jackson, Zach Edey, or Jaylen Wells. One unconfirmed proposal would have Portland receive Brandon Clarke, GG Jackson, a 2026 first-round pick (protected), a 2028 first-round pick (swap/protected), and second-round picks (2025, 2027)."

[Wizenheimer]

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/grizzlies-targeting-deni-avdija/

I clicked through to read the article...

Once I saw the term "The highly competitive Chauncey Billups and Scoot Henderson-led Trail Blazers" used by the author to describe Portland, I promptly left the site and filed that piece firmly in the garbage bin of my mind.

how big is that bin?