2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[Iscull]

Excellent deep dive from No Ceilings into V.J. Edgecombe:

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/outsiders-edge-projecting-vj-edgecombes

How do we feel after digesting this? To be honest, I came away from another dedicated dive on V.J. a little underwhelmed. Now, hang on a second. I did not say I’m out on Edgecombe holistically, but I am slightly more concerned as to V.J.’s high-end upside. Yes, he has ridiculous athleticism. Yes, he is a great positional rebounder. Yes, he is a very good defensive prospect. However, I don’t know if we’re going to see a Thompson twin outcome for V.J.

Even if V.J. improves as a shooter, teams will have to be confident that his frequency of attempts will be worth the defense’s commitment to the shot—particularly when/if he is in the playoffs. Even if V.J. improves as a finisher, he’ll have to improve his shot to force teams to have different screen coverages against him. Even if V.J. does round out as a shooter and finisher with the ball, he’ll need to improve his playmaking chops beyond the simple “next pass”, or kickout, to achieve what teams normally look for in a potential Top 3 pick. This is where the concerns regarding his ceiling lie.

But let’s say he’s just an okay, secondary or tertiary handler and a decent shooter. V.J. still offers top-shelf athleticism, tremendous effort on the glass and boards, and high character; that being his floor is what makes him appealing. Some of the names that he compared to in terms of impact earlier in this piece—DeMarre Carroll, Jake LaRavia, Jae Crowder, and Kyle Anderson—have played pivotal roles on their teams and have been desirable players. That gives V.J. a certain amount of safety, with the potential that some of his concerns will take positive steps in the right direction.

V.J. will likely be a Top 5 pick because of that potential/floor combination, but should probably go toward the back part of that range within the 2025 NBA Draft.

TL;DR - his offensive upside is concerning.

I think the Thompson comparison is kinda bad.

FT Percentage is usually a good indicator of someone's ability to develop a decent jump shot.

VJ shot 78% at Baylor on 4.3 Attempts per Game.
Amen shot 68% average on 3.1 attempts per game in his first two NBA seasons.
Ausar shot 62% average on 2.1 attempts per game in his first two NBA seasons.

Sure, JV doesn't have the size or athleticism that the Thompson twins have, but his shooting capability is A LOT better. You actually have to respect his jump shot at the three point line.

[Iscull]

Nets hoping to move up to #3. If we do this it should be to fleece them of picks, not just dump PG. #3 for #8, #19, #26 & #27?

Read on Twitter

Four 2025 picks is ridiculous. If they give us #8 and #19 as well as maybe a future pick, and take George, I'm in.

This excites me...

PG and #3

Cam Johnson, Claxton, #8, #19, and their 2026 FRP top 3 protected

[Negrodamus]

Watch on YouTube

If the pick is Bailey, my first focus would be getting him stronger because in the small volume he goes to the rim in the half court, he is getting knocked off his mark pretty easily and the shots end up not really having a chance. I've definitely seen enough video to know the intrigue of Bailey, he has a smooth looking jumper and knows how to get those off even under duress. But the bread and butter of the best players who shoot like that in the NBA get to the basket and finish or draw fouls. I'm definitely interested in a guy who can defend across the board and makes effort plays (rebounds, weakside blocks), so I can definitely get on board with Ace if we pick him.

To also do the favorable stat thing (because I don't want anyone getting left out!), when filtering out Ace's nightmare February and March, he does hit some more intriguing stats that would raise an eyebrow for me:

21ppg, 1.4bpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8apg, 8rpg, 42% 3FG, 51% 2FT, 68% FT

So scoring really took a nosedive, the FT% was actually worse during that time, but he did have an estimated higher FTr (didn't feel like going through the entire team's possession numbers) but was likely still under .300. Assists improved as the season went on, because .8 suggests a total non-passer even putting into consideration the talent around him. It's a very TJ Warren type stat-line and I'm not saying that in a good or bad way. Warren was a lottery pick in his draft.

[the_process]

Nets hoping to move up to #3. If we do this it should be to fleece them of picks, not just dump PG. #3 for #8, #19, #26 & #27?

Read on Twitter

Four 2025 picks is ridiculous. If they give us #8 and #19 as well as maybe a future pick, and take George, I'm in.

This excites me...

PG and #3

Cam Johnson, Claxton, #8, #19, and their 2026 FRP top 3 protected

I can't see BKN agreeing to that though. Maybe if you switched the BKN 26 1st with our own 28 1st returned? That would still be an unbelievable haul (and better for BKN where they might say yes).

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

If the pick is Bailey, my first focus would be getting him stronger because in the small volume he goes to the rim in the half court, he is getting knocked off his mark pretty easily and the shots end up not really having a chance. I've definitely seen enough video to know the intrigue of Bailey, he has a smooth looking jumper and knows how to get those off even under duress. But the bread and butter of the best players who shoot like that in the NBA get to the basket and finish or draw fouls. I'm definitely interested in a guy who can defend across the board and makes effort plays (rebounds, weakside blocks), so I can definitely get on board with Ace if we pick him.

To also do the favorable stat thing (because I don't want anyone getting left out!), when filtering out Ace's nightmare February and March, he does hit some more intriguing stats that would raise an eyebrow for me:

21ppg, 1.4bpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8apg, 8rpg, 42% 3FG, 51% 2FT, 68% FT

So scoring really took a nosedive, the FT% was actually worse during that time, but he did have an estimated higher FTr (didn't feel like going through the entire team's possession numbers) but was likely still under .300. Assists improved as the season went on, because .8 suggests a total non-passer even putting into consideration the talent around him. It's a very TJ Warren type stat-line and I'm not saying that in a good or bad way. Warren was a lottery pick in his draft.

If we end up with Bailey, I’d look to develop him in more of a Jaren Jackson Jr. role, a stretch four who can protect the rim and let me play a double-big lineup. Focus on his strengths which are rim protection, rebounding, c&s 3s and adding some muscle.

[Negrodamus]

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

If the pick is Bailey, my first focus would be getting him stronger because in the small volume he goes to the rim in the half court, he is getting knocked off his mark pretty easily and the shots end up not really having a chance. I've definitely seen enough video to know the intrigue of Bailey, he has a smooth looking jumper and knows how to get those off even under duress. But the bread and butter of the best players who shoot like that in the NBA get to the basket and finish or draw fouls. I'm definitely interested in a guy who can defend across the board and makes effort plays (rebounds, weakside blocks), so I can definitely get on board with Ace if we pick him.

To also do the favorable stat thing (because I don't want anyone getting left out!), when filtering out Ace's nightmare February and March, he does hit some more intriguing stats that would raise an eyebrow for me:

21ppg, 1.4bpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8apg, 8rpg, 42% 3FG, 51% 2FT, 68% FT

So scoring really took a nosedive, the FT% was actually worse during that time, but he did have an estimated higher FTr (didn't feel like going through the entire team's possession numbers) but was likely still under .300. Assists improved as the season went on, because .8 suggests a total non-passer even putting into consideration the talent around him. It's a very TJ Warren type stat-line and I'm not saying that in a good or bad way. Warren was a lottery pick in his draft.

If we end up with Bailey, I’d look to develop him in more of a Jaren Jackson Jr. role, a stretch four who can protect the rim and let me play a double-big lineup. Focus on his strengths which are rim protection, rebounding, c&s 3s and adding some muscle.

I'll try to be as polite as possible when saying this, but Ace has a 4.1 BLK% which is great for a guard or wing. Jaren Jackson had a 14.3 BLK% probably because he's 6'11 with a 7'4 wingspan. I mean, Jabari Smith had a similar BLK% in college to Ace and he's basically a non factor protecting the rim in the pros.

[CPops57]

Am I off base here? I’m frustrated reading a lot of these posts because people mention “upside” or “ceiling” without a proper understanding of what that means. I think that our fans don’t really think about the difference between “theoretical max upside”, and “likely good case outcome”. They are two separate concepts.

With theoretical max upside, you’re basically thinking that if basically everything goes perfectly with their development, how good could they conceivably be? This is fun to think about with prospects, but basically never happens. Even somebody like Giannis who had a nearly perfect development for a raw athlete never added a shot for example. Athleticism and size/length are big components here as they’re pretty hard to add.


With likely good case outcome, you’re basically taking an optimistic view of the prospect not being a bust, and thinking about where they’ll be with a pretty typical development curve where over the course of their first 5-6 years or so where they have the best chance to get better: they improve their body a bit (add NBA weight/strength), develop maybe 1 skill they’re lacking to some degree, and refine 1 or 2 skills they already have a bit. IMO, with this, attributes like work ethic, coachability, and basketball-iq matter a lot for picking up new concepts.

How does this relate to some of the main prospects that Sixers fans are locked in on around the 3-7 range?

Ace Bailey: His theoretical max upside is arguably the best here due to his length and natural ability to make tough shots. However, his seemingly low overall basketball-iq and fixation on taking tough shots might give him the worst likely good case outcome. He has to add a lot of skills and break a lot of his mentalities to maybe get there. And even then, I’m not sure if he’s smart enough to ever get it. (I hope I’m wrong)

Tre Johnson: His theoretical max upside is great: maybe like a James Harden-ish offensive engine. But his getting to the rim and finishing at the basket was bad in college. (Not to mention the defense). He won’t take the star leap without fixing at least his driving and finishing.

Kon Kneuppel: His limited athleticism and height gives him by far the lowest theoretical max upside here because he’s never going to consistently beat guys with a first step or explode over people to dunk on them or block their shots in their face. But I think he has one of the better likely good case outcomes. By all accounts he’s very mature, a hard worker, and has a high basketball-iq. IMO, with very modest refinement in existing skills (slightly tighter handle, a pull up shot and floater game, and I’d add finishing with the left hand too if we’re going very nuanced) he has a bit of potential as a creator despite his physical limitations.

VJ Edgecombe: His athleticism gives him super upside if his development goes absolutely perfectly, and by all accounts people praise his work ethic, though the recent posts about him maybe not being his listed age make me a tad nervous. But he’s got a lot of improvement to do in multiple big skills as a shooter, handler, passer, and team defender. The odds of him being useful seem high, but the odds of him fixing all of his weak points seems pretty low.

[Sixersftw]

If we end up with Bailey, I’d look to develop him in more of a Jaren Jackson Jr. role, a stretch four who can protect the rim and let me play a double-big lineup. Focus on his strengths which are rim protection, rebounding, c&s 3s and adding some muscle.

1)Adding muscle 2) He has a posture issue on both sides of the ball. When he bends a bit he moves well and even handles pretty well. When he's upright, A lot of the lowlights IE dribbling off his foot and getting back-doored on defense happen. 3) shot diet. Just watch Rashard Lewis man. You ain't KD.

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

If the pick is Bailey, my first focus would be getting him stronger because in the small volume he goes to the rim in the half court, he is getting knocked off his mark pretty easily and the shots end up not really having a chance. I've definitely seen enough video to know the intrigue of Bailey, he has a smooth looking jumper and knows how to get those off even under duress. But the bread and butter of the best players who shoot like that in the NBA get to the basket and finish or draw fouls. I'm definitely interested in a guy who can defend across the board and makes effort plays (rebounds, weakside blocks), so I can definitely get on board with Ace if we pick him.

To also do the favorable stat thing (because I don't want anyone getting left out!), when filtering out Ace's nightmare February and March, he does hit some more intriguing stats that would raise an eyebrow for me:

21ppg, 1.4bpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8apg, 8rpg, 42% 3FG, 51% 2FT, 68% FT

So scoring really took a nosedive, the FT% was actually worse during that time, but he did have an estimated higher FTr (didn't feel like going through the entire team's possession numbers) but was likely still under .300. Assists improved as the season went on, because .8 suggests a total non-passer even putting into consideration the talent around him. It's a very TJ Warren type stat-line and I'm not saying that in a good or bad way. Warren was a lottery pick in his draft.

If we end up with Bailey, I’d look to develop him in more of a Jaren Jackson Jr. role, a stretch four who can protect the rim and let me play a double-big lineup. Focus on his strengths which are rim protection, rebounding, c&s 3s and adding some muscle.

I'll try to be as polite as possible when saying this, but Ace has a 4.1 BLK% which is great for a guard or wing. Jaren Jackson had a 14.3 BLK% probably because he's 6'11 with a 7'4 wingspan. I mean, Jabari Smith had a similar BLK% in college to Ace and he's basically a non factor protecting the rim in the pros.

If that doesn’t work out, he can maybe thrive in an Andrew Wiggins-type 3&D role.

[Sixersftw]

I'll try to be as polite as possible when saying this, but Ace has a 4.1 BLK% which is great for a guard or wing. Jaren Jackson had a 14.3 BLK% probably because he's 6'11 with a 7'4 wingspan. I mean, Jabari Smith had a similar BLK% in college to Ace and he's basically a non factor protecting the rim in the pros.

There's no need to be nice here. JJJ was thought of as one of the top defensive prospects in years when he was coming out. Ace just isn't anywhere close as a rim protector

[zaz102]

How switchable can Ace be?

[sodmoraes]

For the people who are still scarred by Fultz, listening to the PHLY podcast with Scott Drew, he mentioned that VJ had tinkered with his shot (along with adding weight) which contributed to his horrific shooting at the beginning of the year. Drew said he sat down with him, looked at tape, commented on what was wrong, and VJ went immediately to work to get his shot back.

If you look at November, his shooting splits were 37% FG (27% 3FG, 44% 2FG) 68% FT. 11ppg

If you remove November, his splits on the rest of the season go to 45% FG (36% 3FG, 52% 2FG) 80% FT. 16.1 ppg

Feel free to do that with any other prospect, I'm just doing that in the context of knowing he screwed up his shot and immediately brought it back to a fairly elite level at FT and a decent level at 3FG.

If you remove the last 2 months of Ace stats, which he obviously mailed, his numbers would be 21 PPG and 41% from 3, it goes both ways...

[Negrodamus]

VJ Edgecombe: His athleticism gives him super upside if his development goes absolutely perfectly, and by all accounts people praise his work ethic, though the recent posts about him maybe not being his listed age make me a tad nervous. But he’s got a lot of improvement to do in multiple big skills as a shooter, handler, passer, and team defender. The odds of him being useful seem high, but the odds of him fixing all of his weak points seems pretty low.

Please don't consider the idea that his age is faked. It's just another random manufactured reason to be turned off by VJ. No one has been reporting it. If were doing that, then anyone from Croatia is fair game to question because Peja was reportedly 3 years older than he actually was (don't know if that's true). Ersan Ilyasova was another one. So why don't we conflate it to anyone in southeast Europe? There's nothing suggesting the Bahamas produce fake aged players.

[Negrodamus]

For the people who are still scarred by Fultz, listening to the PHLY podcast with Scott Drew, he mentioned that VJ had tinkered with his shot (along with adding weight) which contributed to his horrific shooting at the beginning of the year. Drew said he sat down with him, looked at tape, commented on what was wrong, and VJ went immediately to work to get his shot back.

If you look at November, his shooting splits were 37% FG (27% 3FG, 44% 2FG) 68% FT. 11ppg

If you remove November, his splits on the rest of the season go to 45% FG (36% 3FG, 52% 2FG) 80% FT. 16.1 ppg

Feel free to do that with any other prospect, I'm just doing that in the context of knowing he screwed up his shot and immediately brought it back to a fairly elite level at FT and a decent level at 3FG.

If you remove the last 2 months of Ace stats, which he obviously mailed, his numbers would be 21 PPG and 41% from 3, it goes both ways...

Literally already posted about this because I knew someone would be crying. Also, you don't think mailing it in is worth considering with a prospect?

[sodmoraes]

For the people who are still scarred by Fultz, listening to the PHLY podcast with Scott Drew, he mentioned that VJ had tinkered with his shot (along with adding weight) which contributed to his horrific shooting at the beginning of the year. Drew said he sat down with him, looked at tape, commented on what was wrong, and VJ went immediately to work to get his shot back.

If you look at November, his shooting splits were 37% FG (27% 3FG, 44% 2FG) 68% FT. 11ppg

If you remove November, his splits on the rest of the season go to 45% FG (36% 3FG, 52% 2FG) 80% FT. 16.1 ppg

Feel free to do that with any other prospect, I'm just doing that in the context of knowing he screwed up his shot and immediately brought it back to a fairly elite level at FT and a decent level at 3FG.

If you remove the last 2 months of Ace stats, which he obviously mailed, his numbers would be 21 PPG and 41% from 3, it goes both ways...

Literally already posted about this because I knew someone would be crying. Also, you don't think mailing it in is worth considering with a prospect?

Yes, sorry about that . I posted that on reflex and saw after that you posted his numbers already filtered later. I had filtered his stats without the last months of the season a couple of weeks ago, and had the numbers from memory.

[CPops57]

Please don't consider the idea that his age is faked. It's just another random manufactured reason to be turned off by VJ. No one has been reporting it. If were doing that, then anyone from Croatia is fair game to question because Peja was reportedly 3 years older than he actually was (don't know if that's true). Ersan Ilyasova was another one. So why don't we conflate it to anyone in southeast Europe? There's nothing suggesting the Bahamas produce fake aged players.

1) I think this is pretty unlikely, but if I had the resources of an NBA team and was investing my franchise's future into somebody as well as tens of millions of dollars into his salary and development, I'd probably consider investigating this for many prospects outside of the US or other wealthy countries that seem to have a stable political system in place that's hard to bribe or circumvent. How much does a lawyer or private investigator cost to just look into this?

2) I'm not aware of any age-related rumors regarding Peja or Ilyasova, but it might matter a bit more for VJ because his athletic gifts are his main calling card. If his level of athleticism is inflated because he's actually a few years older and more physically mature than we think, that might be a bigger deal for him than it would be for other prospects.

[sodmoraes]

Quoting from the Book of Ace, mailing may be considered bad while evaluating a prospect for you, but isnt considered for me

[76ciology]

How switchable can Ace be?

Many are already turned off by his numbers

[Mik317]

lets get nuts

Harper is the next Harden. Ace is the next T-Mac. VJ is the next Wade. Tre is the next Ray Allen. Kon is American Luka. Queen is smaller Embiid. KJ is new Haliburton just dropped.

or in the negative zone

Harper is Fultz with a NBA dad. Ace is Tobias who doesn't read books. VJ is short Wiggins. Tre is a stretched out Cam Thomas. Kon is <insert white duke guy here>. Queen is fat Julius Randle. KJ is just that guy we drafted but never came over until he did and was bad.

The "reality" is probably somewhere in the middle but also probably somewhere completely different than expected due to some unforeseen development either positively or negatively.

[Negrodamus]

lets get nuts

Harper is the next Harden. Ace is the next T-Mac. VJ is the next Wade. Tre is the next Ray Allen. Kon is American Luka. Queen is smaller Embiid. KJ is new Haliburton just dropped.

or in the negative zone

Harper is Fultz with a NBA dad. Ace is Tobias who doesn't read books. VJ is short Wiggins. Tre is a stretched out Cam Thomas. Kon is <insert white duke guy here>. Queen is fat Julius Randle. KJ is just that guy we drafted but never came over until he did and was bad.

The "reality" is probably somewhere in the middle but also probably somewhere completely different than expected due to some unforeseen development either positively or negatively.

Give me the one you call Fat Julius Randle.