RJ Barrett is Criminally Underrated

[tsherkin]

We should try and play him more against bench units. He should be the first sub of any of the starters. I think his game is better suited than most on the team to take advantage of benches. RJ’s power game works better against smaller defenders and worse rim protection. I think he can get his efficiency up against other teams benches and provide a much needed buoying of our bench offense. His size also allows him to play backup 3, something which we lack. There were many times last year where he was the only guy floating our offense. I like RJ getting more touches with the bench as I feel like he’s going to get squeezed with Ingram in the starting lineup.

Working the matchup game is always smart, yes.

Curious, who do you think will be our starting 2?

[ForeverTFC]

Yeah the other day people here wanted to trade him and #9 for Cam Johnson and their late 1st round picks. People are out of their minds.

I think what happens is because most people on this board really only watch the Raptors games they really dig in deep with certain narratives and one narrative is that RJ Barrett is not a good player. In reality he is a very good player and better than most of the league, with a few tweaks to his game could be an allstar.

RJ is a really good dude and is from Toronto. We all want to see him succeed here and would love nothing more than rooting for him. That does not change the fact that he's a below average defender, an average playmaker and shooter, and above average but not elite at self creation. He's not good enough at the thing he's good at for the team to prioritize it and is limited everywhere else to complement most setups.

If the FO doesn't like their options at 9 and are able to get a 2026 1st added to the package you highlighted, I'm doing the deal.

Cam Johnson is a worse defender. He's 4 years older. Hes a worse rebounder. He doesnt play hard. Hes always injured. Only thing he does better is shooting.

Mostly agree. And yet he is an easier fit vs RJ on most teams and carries a higher trade value. Most people in favor of that Cam trade don't want him here as a player, they want him here as a trade asset.

[YogurtProducer]

He’s not good at 3pt shooting. Why is this getting upvoted?

Per36 stats:

RJ: 35%, 5.9 3pa

League Average SG: 37%, 7.2 3pa

So not only is RJ a below average 3pt shooter, he is also a below average volume 3pt shooter for his position.

Please stop saying RJ is a good 3pt shooter. He has positive traits you can cite. You don’t need to lie to try and improve your argument.

Because you can’t look at the average %’s to determine anything %’s are skewed high by the elite players who shoot more. Bad shooters don’t shoot.

A guy shooting 40% on 9 shots a game and another shooting 20% on 1 shot per game has an average of 38%.

There are 90 rotation guards shooting equivalent or better per36 volume and on better 3pt% than RJ. If you adjust for all positions RJ ranks 247th.

Want to break it down on a per game basis to remove low volume shooters who might never get to their adjusted per 36 volume? He ranks in the bottom 30th percentile.

He is not a good 3pt shooter. This shouldn’t be debatable.

You cherry picked something here and I am not sure what.

He ranks 247th out of 569 players in the league last year in 3point% - FAR from bottoms 30th percentile.

Among guys with enough volume to qualify he is 130th out of 174 - but again this is removing every bad shooter who doesn't shoot - so it is misrepresenting the facts to suggest he is bottom 30th percentile in this situation.

If you increase the sample to qualifying players who played enough minutes to qualify for PPG charts, RJ is now 130/231 players.

Compare it to the top 300 players in the league minutes wise (aka - rotation players), he is 160th/300 in pure %.


But this also ignored a lot of context. RJ is a 36.2% shooter in his Toronto career. His %'s plummeted this year a bit as he shot 10% less of his 3's from the corner (as he was given more creation), and he saw a reduction in points he created himself (98% of his 3's assisted in 2024 vs 93% last year).

Now, define what is a "good" shooter. Top 50? Top 100? Top 150? Most of the evidence suggests he is in the mid-pack of the league in terms of shooting. Not quite "good", but also not bad as you are trying to suggest.

[YogurtProducer]

We should try and play him more against bench units. He should be the first sub of any of the starters. I think his game is better suited than most on the team to take advantage of benches. RJ’s power game works better against smaller defenders and worse rim protection. I think he can get his efficiency up against other teams benches and provide a much needed buoying of our bench offense. His size also allows him to play backup 3, something which we lack. There were many times last year where he was the only guy floating our offense. I like RJ getting more touches with the bench as I feel like he’s going to get squeezed with Ingram in the starting lineup.

Working the matchup game is always smart, yes.

Curious, who do you think will be our starting 2?

Game 1? I think its RJ.

Want? Agbaji or JKW.

[ConSarnit]

We should try and play him more against bench units. He should be the first sub of any of the starters. I think his game is better suited than most on the team to take advantage of benches. RJ’s power game works better against smaller defenders and worse rim protection. I think he can get his efficiency up against other teams benches and provide a much needed buoying of our bench offense. His size also allows him to play backup 3, something which we lack. There were many times last year where he was the only guy floating our offense. I like RJ getting more touches with the bench as I feel like he’s going to get squeezed with Ingram in the starting lineup.

Working the matchup game is always smart, yes.

Curious, who do you think will be our starting 2?

I’m assuming Barrett will start. I can’t see anyone supplanting him. I think he deserves to start even if the fit isn’t ideal. He should benefit from less defensive attention.

I’m only really down on Barrett as far as he fits with the core of the team. I think we need more shooting and defense from the 2. Some of the stuff isn’t Barrett’s fault. Barnes and Poeltl can’t shoot. Ingram and IQ aren’t any type of defensive stopper. He’s just the most likely odd man out if a move gets made considering the logjam we have at the 2. I don’t think any of those guys are ready to take the reins yet (you could argue Ochai or if Ja’Kobe takes a big leap). If anyone gets squeezed/sees their role reduced it’s likely RJ and his supplemental skills don’t really fit in that type of role. A big 3 scoring trio of BI/RJ/Barnes isn’t exactly the recipe for a high horsepower offense.

Barrett has outperformed my expectations but I never thought he was a great fit in the first place and I think his fit remains questionable. If we keep him for another year I’m perfectly fine with that. If we trade him I’m fine with that too. I think he’s the most expendable given the roster makeup (though still a solid player). I feel like we’d be better off shifting our money and talent elsewhere as having Mogbo as our only backup big is creating a pretty massive roster gap at the moment. Now that could be solved if MLSE wants to pay the tax but I’ll believe that when I see it.

[tsherkin]

Game 1? I think its RJ.

Want? Agbaji or JKW.

Interesting choices. Both considerably more limited on offense than RJ at the moment, though obviously Agbaji looks like he's ready to be a 3+D type of player. Walter... looks interesting, but needs to get better in most ways. FT shooting is there. Rough from 3, total ass from the corner. Very good on the middie in very low volume, which was at odds with his time at Baylor. Very unexciting shooting at Baylor. Bleh with the ball, unremarkable athleticism, bleh playmaking. Pretty crap finishing inside the arc for a guy who had nearly two-thirds of his 2FG assisted.

52 games, 20 years old... obviously, nothing is set in stone. Mechanics look good, shot well from 3 in college. Moves well without the ball, has a pretty quick release, which is helpful. Bit low, and he had trouble with lightly-guarded C+S and the like as a rook and in college, kind of like Gradey this year (defenders within 4-6 feet, and also closer).

What do you see that I don't? Do you think more of his defense than I do? Because his offense doesn't really stun me in production, method or potential, so I'm curious what it is you see, and if I may be missing something.

[tsherkin]

I’m assuming Barrett will start. I can’t see anyone supplanting him. I think he deserves to start even if the fit isn’t ideal. He should benefit from less defensive attention.

I’m only really down on Barrett as far as he fits with the core of the team. I think we need more shooting and defense from the 2.

I think the way of this is to stash him in the right corner more. That'd immediately help.

Some of the stuff isn’t Barrett’s fault. Barnes and Poeltl can’t shoot. Ingram and IQ aren’t any type of defensive stopper. He’s just the most likely odd man out if a move gets made considering the logjam we have at the 2.

This gets back to what I asked Yogurt. What do you think is so impressive about, say, Walter or Dick compared to RJ?

[ConSarnit]

Because you can’t look at the average %’s to determine anything %’s are skewed high by the elite players who shoot more. Bad shooters don’t shoot.

A guy shooting 40% on 9 shots a game and another shooting 20% on 1 shot per game has an average of 38%.

There are 90 rotation guards shooting equivalent or better per36 volume and on better 3pt% than RJ. If you adjust for all positions RJ ranks 247th.

Want to break it down on a per game basis to remove low volume shooters who might never get to their adjusted per 36 volume? He ranks in the bottom 30th percentile.

He is not a good 3pt shooter. This shouldn’t be debatable.

You cherry picked something here and I am not sure what.

He ranks 247th out of 569 players in the league last year in 3point% - FAR from bottoms 30th percentile.

Among guys with enough volume to qualify he is 130th out of 174 - but again this is removing every bad shooter who doesn't shoot - so it is misrepresenting the facts to suggest he is bottom 30th percentile in this situation.

If you increase the sample to qualifying players who played enough minutes to qualify for PPG charts, RJ is now 130/231 players.

Compare it to the top 300 players in the league minutes wise (aka - rotation players), he is 160th/300 in pure %.


But this also ignored a lot of context. RJ is a 36.2% shooter in his Toronto career. His %'s plummeted this year a bit as he shot 10% less of his 3's from the corner (as he was given more creation), and he saw a reduction in points he created himself (98% of his 3's assisted in 2024 vs 93% last year).

Now, define what is a "good" shooter. Top 50? Top 100? Top 150? Most of the evidence suggests he is in the mid-pack of the league in terms of shooting. Not quite "good", but also not bad as you are trying to suggest.

It’s pretty simple: a good shooter at least shoots above league average. RJ does not. SG is the highest demand position when it comes to 3pt shooting. This is where most teams are relying on high level shooting to come from. RJ does not provide that. The expectations for a shooting guard are higher than a power forward.

In what world does being below average at your position in a skillset ever qualify as “good” as some posters have argued in this thread? RJ is a below average 3pt shooter. My contention isn’t even that he’s “bad”. But he’s definitely not “good”.

You and I are not far off in our opinions on RJ’s 3pt shooting. I just have to push back against those who claim he is “good”.

[tsherkin]

Now, define what is a "good" shooter. Top 50? Top 100? Top 150? Most of the evidence suggests he is in the mid-pack of the league in terms of shooting. Not quite "good", but also not bad as you are trying to suggest.

I will add to this.

RJ is a weak FT shooter with a weak mid-range game... but an improved shot on the long two, a shade above league average for two years running now... on less than 2% of his total attempts. He's even a bottom-third finisher in close.

So generally speaking, I think it's reasonably fair to say he's a pretty weak shooter, but that he's proficient from the right corner 3, if a shade inconsistent. Now, we can all split hairs about "poor" versus "mediocre" and so forth, but I don't see a lot to indicate that he's "middle of the pack" when you start looking at more than just his 3pt shooting.

Maybe I missed that you guys were talking about that, but then looking at his ATB 3pt shooting would tend to bring him back down again, no? He was a 33.3% ATB shooter last year, 34.0% the year before, 30.3% before that, 35.0% in 2022, 37.3% in 2021, and 30.0% as a rookie.

It isn't really an area of strength for him. His deal is getting to the basket, and very specifically right corner 3s. Beyond that, shooting is not really his friend.

[ConSarnit]

I’m assuming Barrett will start. I can’t see anyone supplanting him. I think he deserves to start even if the fit isn’t ideal. He should benefit from less defensive attention.

I’m only really down on Barrett as far as he fits with the core of the team. I think we need more shooting and defense from the 2.

I think the way of this is to stash him in the right corner more. That'd immediately help.

Some of the stuff isn’t Barrett’s fault. Barnes and Poeltl can’t shoot. Ingram and IQ aren’t any type of defensive stopper. He’s just the most likely odd man out if a move gets made considering the logjam we have at the 2.

This gets back to what I asked Yogurt. What do you think is so impressive about, say, Walter or Dick compared to RJ?

I think Walter has a higher upside in terms of filling this teams needs: he should be able to fill the 3+D role and he had a drive game in college. I don’t know if he gets there this year. Dick is just potential at this moment until he shows he can actually defend.

If you believe in Agbaji then he fills the role of 3+D sg pretty well. He’s probably the top candidate to start if not RJ.

RJ also makes $27m, we have zero big man depth and we’re slated to be right at the tax. I’d rather free up RJ’s salary to invest elsewhere. What if Shead and/or Mogbo isn’t ready? Then we have 3 backup SG’s and nothing else.

How do you feel about a starting lineup of IQ, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl? Does that inspire a lot of confidence in you on either offense or defense? I can’t say it does for me.

Like I said, I’m willing to ride it out for a year but I think something is eventually going to have to give.

[YogurtProducer]

There are 90 rotation guards shooting equivalent or better per36 volume and on better 3pt% than RJ. If you adjust for all positions RJ ranks 247th.

Want to break it down on a per game basis to remove low volume shooters who might never get to their adjusted per 36 volume? He ranks in the bottom 30th percentile.

He is not a good 3pt shooter. This shouldn’t be debatable.

You cherry picked something here and I am not sure what.

He ranks 247th out of 569 players in the league last year in 3point% - FAR from bottoms 30th percentile.

Among guys with enough volume to qualify he is 130th out of 174 - but again this is removing every bad shooter who doesn't shoot - so it is misrepresenting the facts to suggest he is bottom 30th percentile in this situation.

If you increase the sample to qualifying players who played enough minutes to qualify for PPG charts, RJ is now 130/231 players.

Compare it to the top 300 players in the league minutes wise (aka - rotation players), he is 160th/300 in pure %.


But this also ignored a lot of context. RJ is a 36.2% shooter in his Toronto career. His %'s plummeted this year a bit as he shot 10% less of his 3's from the corner (as he was given more creation), and he saw a reduction in points he created himself (98% of his 3's assisted in 2024 vs 93% last year).

Now, define what is a "good" shooter. Top 50? Top 100? Top 150? Most of the evidence suggests he is in the mid-pack of the league in terms of shooting. Not quite "good", but also not bad as you are trying to suggest.

It’s pretty simple: a good shooter at least shoots above league average. RJ does not. SG is the highest demand position when it comes to 3pt shooting. This is where most teams are relying on high level shooting to come from. RJ does not provide that. The expectations for a shooting guard are higher than a power forward.

In what world does being below average at your position in a skillset ever qualify as “good” as some posters have argued in this thread? RJ is a below average 3pt shooter. My contention isn’t even that he’s “bad”. But he’s definitely not “good”.

You and I are not far off in our opinions on RJ’s 3pt shooting. I just have to push back against those who claim he is “good”.

I mean if you bar is “league average” to be good that means there’s 112 good shooters in the entire league. Fair enough.

But then again, RJ as a raptor in total has been above average from 3 at 36.2% (league avg last year was 36.0%) - so is he good? Or is the bar for good higher than 36%?

[YogurtProducer]

Game 1? I think its RJ.

Want? Agbaji or JKW.

Interesting choices. Both considerably more limited on offense than RJ at the moment, though obviously Agbaji looks like he's ready to be a 3+D type of player. Walter... looks interesting, but needs to get better in most ways. FT shooting is there. Rough from 3, total ass from the corner. Very good on the middie in very low volume, which was at odds with his time at Baylor. Very unexciting shooting at Baylor. Bleh with the ball, unremarkable athleticism, bleh playmaking. Pretty crap finishing inside the arc for a guy who had nearly two-thirds of his 2FG assisted.

52 games, 20 years old... obviously, nothing is set in stone. Mechanics look good, shot well from 3 in college. Moves well without the ball, has a pretty quick release, which is helpful. Bit low, and he had trouble with lightly-guarded C+S and the like as a rook and in college, kind of like Gradey this year (defenders within 4-6 feet, and also closer).

What do you see that I don't? Do you think more of his defense than I do? Because his offense doesn't really stun me in production, method or potential, so I'm curious what it is you see, and if I may be missing something.

I like the fit. I don’t want 30mpg from those 2 starting, but I think their ability to be more of a 3+D piece and also gain some experience is better than having an awkward fit between IG/RJ/Infram/Barnes all wanting the ball at a higher rate.

Walter showed some solid potential to end last year to. Agbaji is already the best fit. RJ the best scorer (which we need off the bench, but not starting IMO).

Just to me we need our 2 guard to be the 4th option on offense, and we need a 6th man. Agbaji + RJ seems logical to be as those fits.

[tsherkin]

I think Walter has a higher upside in terms of filling this teams needs: he should be able to fill the 3+D role and he had a drive game in college. I don’t know if he gets there this year. Dick is just potential at this moment until he shows he can actually defend.

Interesting.

RJ also makes $27m, we have zero big man depth and we’re slated to be right at the tax. I’d rather free up RJ’s salary to invest elsewhere. What if Shead and/or Mogbo isn’t ready? Then we have 3 backup SG’s and nothing else.

It's certainly one of the meatier assets we have to move in which to get someone back, for sure.

How do you feel about a starting lineup of IQ, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl? Does that inspire a lot of confidence in you on either offense or defense? I can’t say it does for me.

Depends on the details. I think if you replaced Barnes with someone else, the offense would be very compelling. Likewise, I think if you replaced RJ with someone else, the D starts to look better.

I agree, though, that there's likely something going to have to change, and RJ is a big candidate for that.

I like the fit. I don’t want 30mpg from those 2 starting, but I think their ability to be more of a 3+D piece and also gain some experience is better than having an awkward fit between IG/RJ/Infram/Barnes all wanting the ball at a higher rate.

Walter showed some solid potential to end last year to. Agbaji is already the best fit. RJ the best scorer (which we need off the bench, but not starting IMO).

Just to me we need our 2 guard to be the 4th option on offense, and we need a 6th man. Agbaji + RJ seems logical to be as those fits.

Fair enough.

[TimeForChange]

Read on Twitter

[tsherkin]

Read on Twitter

Sad, but expected.

[deeps6x]

I’m assuming Barrett will start. I can’t see anyone supplanting him. I think he deserves to start even if the fit isn’t ideal. He should benefit from less defensive attention.

I’m only really down on Barrett as far as he fits with the core of the team. I think we need more shooting and defense from the 2.

I think the way of this is to stash him in the right corner more. That'd immediately help.

Some of the stuff isn’t Barrett’s fault. Barnes and Poeltl can’t shoot. Ingram and IQ aren’t any type of defensive stopper. He’s just the most likely odd man out if a move gets made considering the logjam we have at the 2.

This gets back to what I asked Yogurt. What do you think is so impressive about, say, Walter or Dick compared to RJ?

I think Walter has a higher upside in terms of filling this teams needs: he should be able to fill the 3+D role and he had a drive game in college. I don’t know if he gets there this year. Dick is just potential at this moment until he shows he can actually defend.

If you believe in Agbaji then he fills the role of 3+D sg pretty well. He’s probably the top candidate to start if not RJ.

RJ also makes $27m, we have zero big man depth and we’re slated to be right at the tax. I’d rather free up RJ’s salary to invest elsewhere. What if Shead and/or Mogbo isn’t ready? Then we have 3 backup SG’s and nothing else.

How do you feel about a starting lineup of IQ, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl? Does that inspire a lot of confidence in you on either offense or defense? I can’t say it does for me.

Like I said, I’m willing to ride it out for a year but I think something is eventually going to have to give.

Maybe we could add big man depth right now. Memphis just traded Bane for salary filler, four first round picks and a pick swap.

RJ had more PPG, RPG and APG then Bane last year, and he's younger and taller.

Memphis just created a hole in their roster to steal a pile of picks. Good for them.

Fill that hole by trading for RJ, and flipping us #16, Edey and filler (KCP). Salaries match. We get our back up C, who is a better fit then Poeltl in our lineup, we get #16, which will have a bunch of nice options and free up a SG spot. Maybe we get a chance to draft Kon at #9 and Bryant at #16. I would like the look of our team a lot more if we could do this.

[tsherkin]

RJ had more PPG, RPG and APG then Bane last year, and he's younger and taller.

Sure, but like, WAAAAAAAAAY worse at his primary function of scoring compared to Bane. Remember, Bane was a 60% TS guy who shot 39.2% on 6.1 3PA/g and 41.2% above the break.

Using the Bane trade as a measure for what we might get for RJ is folly.

Fill that hole by trading for RJ, and flipping us #16, Edey and filler (KCP). Salaries match. We get our back up C, who is a better fit then Poeltl in our lineup, we get #16, which will have a bunch of nice options and free up a SG spot. Maybe we get a chance to draft Kon at #9 and Bryant at #16. I would like the look of our team a lot more if we could do this.

Why would Memphis do that?

[MEDIC]

Read on Twitter

Gradey Dick as their starting wing.

OK........I change my prediction. Maybe we won't make the playoffs

[Spates]

I think RJ will be a good spark plug in 2-3 years. I'm fairly confident that he'll be quite an impactful player once he enters his prime. Despite his limitations as a floor spacer and defender, I think he could be a strong positive currently if not for processing issues on court. One thing that stood out to me were his turnovers. Some were aggregious and infuriating. It seemed obvious that the game is still fast for him. But it seems like he's gaining mastery gradually and I think it'd wise to lock him in on a team friendly deal, if possible.

I'm certain he'll be a fantastic sixth man.

[LoveMyRaps]

Read on Twitter

Gradey Dick as their starting wing.

OK........I change my prediction. Maybe we won't make the playoffs

No sir