Ace Bailey

[babyjax13]

I haven't watched him, just going off what people are saying here and looking at stats and stuff.

Where would he be based on your expectations if he became Jabari Smith 2.0? Do you expect better or worse or about that level?

I do not think they are similar players. I think Ace has more upside on both ends. If he hits a reasonable but not exceptional outcome, I would expect him to fill a similar role as Wiggins as a tertiary scorer that can be disruptive defensively.

[76ciology]

I haven't watched him, just going off what people are saying here and looking at stats and stuff.

Where would he be based on your expectations if he became Jabari Smith 2.0? Do you expect better or worse or about that level?

I do not think they are similar players. I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

May I know why?

Jabari has better length, more skilled, better shooting profile, better feel and was way more productive.

[JMAC3]

I haven't watched him, just going off what people are saying here and looking at stats and stuff.

Where would he be based on your expectations if he became Jabari Smith 2.0? Do you expect better or worse or about that level?

I do not think they are similar players. I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

May I know why?

Jabari has better length, more skilled, better shooting profile, better feel and was way more productive.

Ace is a better athlete, more fluid mover in open space. Jabari is stiff, robotic and plays with zero creativity.

I don't think one was more productive though.
Jabari 16.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2 apg
Ace 17.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 apg

Jabari shot an insane % from three in 1 season in college, but he has shown he isn't an elite shooter in the NBA- career 34% which is 8 pts lower than his outlier year at Auburn. Jabari would be a disappointing outcome for me if I am selecting Ace Bailey.

[CptCrunch]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

[ReggiesKnicks]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

Yeah I don't really get it. Jabari Smith Jr was an exceptional prospect.

[CptCrunch]

Jabari was truly an elite shooter at 44/42/80 split while leading Auburn as the first option to a top 10 finish in the NCAA.

Ace was the second option on non-tourney team with the #2 draft pick this year, who happened to be a point guard. Ace's shot looks nice, but we seem to be expecting magic or some ****, pretending that Ace will shoot like a sniper in the NBA while not even breaking 35 (34.6%) in the NCAA. Let's keep on sweeping Ace's 46/35/69 split under the rug.

How about that god awful FT shooting, 74 for 107? That's over a 100 shots at 69% free throw shooting. The exact 95% binomial interval for this is 59.4% to 77.7%. In the best god damn case, Ace is probably gonna be a mid 70's FT shooter. I personally don't perceive such players are elite shooters in the NBA.

[sodmoraes]

Not that i´m defending Ace, but he kinda mailed in the last couple of months of season, it seems obviously. If you filter that 2 last months from his stats he would have averaged 21 PPG and 41% from 3. And about his ft, he shot really few fts, so there´s some variance there, so i couple of more hits would bring his ft to a more respectable percentage, similar to his high school numbers. If you remove his game against setton hall, which was an outlier( he shot 1 from 8), his ft % would go up to 74%. Not that i think he´s a cant miss prospect, but i think the sixers should pick him at 3rd, since he has a lot of potential( probably top 3 in this draft) and is a position of need. I think his numbers would be way better if he went to a better team.

[JMAC3]

Jabari was truly an elite shooter at 44/42/80 split while leading Auburn as the first option to a top 10 finish in the NCAA.

Ace was the second option on non-tourney team with the #2 draft pick this year, who happened to be a point guard. Ace's shot looks nice, but we seem to be expecting magic or some ****, pretending that Ace will shoot like a sniper in the NBA while not even breaking 35 (34.6%) in the NCAA. Let's keep on sweeping Ace's 46/35/69 split under the rug.

How about that god awful FT shooting, 74 for 107? That's over a 100 shots at 69% free throw shooting. The exact 95% binomial interval for this is 59.4% to 77.7%. In the best god damn case, Ace is probably gonna be a mid 70's FT shooter. I personally don't perceive such players are elite shooters in the NBA.

Jabari was a good prospect, but speak for yourself. I brought up plenty of concerns at the time with his low 2pt% and his shot selection of taking a bunch of tough 2s. He also had zero handle in college and projecting him for anything more than what he is today was all based on projection of skills that he had not shown he possessed. People fell in love with his BPM and not the actual skills he showcased on film and thought that meant he was going to be a star-- honestly kind of what is happening with Kon this year.

Ace had two games where he shot terrible from the line 4/16 in those two games.
Over the other 28 games he was 70/91 or 77%.

Ace also isn't without faults but basically all his weaknesses were Jabari weaknesses but Ace has shown more high-end traits with athleticism, handle and far more shot creation skills.

[CptCrunch]

Not that i´m defending Ace, but he kinda mailed in the last couple of months of season, it seems obviously. If you filter that 2 last months from his stats he would have averaged 21 PPG and 41% from 3. And about his ft, he shot really few fts, so there´s some variance there, so i couple of more hits would bring his ft to a more respectable percentage, similar to his high school numbers. If you remove his game against setton hall, which was an outlier( he shot 1 from 8), his ft % would go up to 74%. Not that i think he´s a cant miss prospect, but i think the sixers should pick him at 3rd, since he has a lot of potential( probably top 3 in this draft) and is a position of need. I think his numbers would be way better if he went to a better team.

Is mailing it in a good sign? Do we expect him to mail-it-in on his bad lotto bound NBA team? This mail-it-in type hurts a prospect more than any uplift in 'adjusted stats' can bring.

Ben Simmons part deux without the talent.

[babyjax13]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

I am not comparing Ace to my pre draft assessment of Jabari, I am comparing him to what Smith has shown in the NBA.

[CptCrunch]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

I am not comparing Ace to my pre draft assessment of Jabari, I am comparing him to what Smith has shown in the NBA.

> I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

So you are comparing Ace's upside now to Jabari's upside now? Just stay yes on the record, and I'll take your words for it.

Otherwise, insightful analysis making retrospective hindsight comparisons. 9.5/10 people would take a box of unknown over a semi-failed prospect in Jabari right now.

[babyjax13]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

I am not comparing Ace to my pre draft assessment of Jabari, I am comparing him to what Smith has shown in the NBA.

> I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

So you are comparing Ace's upside now to Jabari's upside now? Just stay yes on the record, and I'll take your words for it.

Otherwise, insightful analysis making retrospective hindsight comparisons. 9.5/10 people would take a box of unknown over a semi-failed prospect in Jabari right now.

Yes. As prospects I think they are in a pretty similar tier. Smith seemed more like a 4/5 to me and Ace is more of a wing. I think wings are generally more impactful but Smith was better in college.

[EvanZ]

My curiosity about Ace is whether he thinks he's a #1 option or not. And how long it takes him to prove he is vs his team to prove to him he's not.

[vincecarter4pres]

Maybe shades of Danny Granger as upside comparison?

[azcatz11]

I am not comparing Ace to my pre draft assessment of Jabari, I am comparing him to what Smith has shown in the NBA.

> I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

So you are comparing Ace's upside now to Jabari's upside now? Just stay yes on the record, and I'll take your words for it.

Otherwise, insightful analysis making retrospective hindsight comparisons. 9.5/10 people would take a box of unknown over a semi-failed prospect in Jabari right now.

Yes. As prospects I think they are in a pretty similar tier. Smith seemed more like a 4/5 to me and Ace is more of a wing. I think wings are generally more impactful but Smith was better in college.

Jabari was one of the most dominant college players in the last 15 years…

[Chi town]

All these Jabari revisionism is crazy.

Jabari is better than Ace and Miller as a prospect.

I am not comparing Ace to my pre draft assessment of Jabari, I am comparing him to what Smith has shown in the NBA.

The appeal to me was Jabari at the 5. Which he hasn’t done. Can’t get his win shot. Basically a CS stiff 4 that can play solid D.

[Chi town]

I think Ace goes 3 and Sixers will trade back and get Kon.

[SeattleJazzFan]

> I think Ace has more upside on both ends.

So you are comparing Ace's upside now to Jabari's upside now? Just stay yes on the record, and I'll take your words for it.

Otherwise, insightful analysis making retrospective hindsight comparisons. 9.5/10 people would take a box of unknown over a semi-failed prospect in Jabari right now.

Yes. As prospects I think they are in a pretty similar tier. Smith seemed more like a 4/5 to me and Ace is more of a wing. I think wings are generally more impactful but Smith was better in college.

Jabari was one of the most dominant college players in the last 15 years…

he wasn't, but that was probably a fun sentence to type.

[Catchall]

Ace is reportedly turning down pre-draft workouts. It sounds as though Ace is trying to slide down a few spots or get someone to trade up for him.

If I'm the Jazz, I probably have Tre Johnson ranked slightly ahead of Ace, but if VJ and Tre are both gone, and Ace is on the board at #5, I'd still probably take Ace.

[kobyz]

Maybe shades of Danny Granger as upside comparison?

My comparison for him is Michael Finley