Rumors, Random Thoughts, and non-Threadworthy Posts 18.0 Dave Cowens drove a taxi

[jscott]

Shams saying KD doesn’t want to play in MN. Won’t bother linking to Twitter.

[jayjaysee]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

If you read that report that KD doesn’t want to go to Minnesota, then they should be less motivated to outbid SAS or Houston obviously.

If you read it that he’d rather go to the other three teams, but would be happy with Ant.. Then Minn can still make a strong offer and Phoenix should be interested in Randle if they’re going to keep Booker.

[wemby]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

I think KD probably wants to go elsewhere (Miami, Texas), the Suns probably are hoping for some other team's assets (probably the Rockets' or Spurs'), but at the end of the day it's a good destination that gives him the best chance of contending and good win now players to the Suns. If the Suns don't get an offer by the draft, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up taking the TWolves offer and Durant accepts it like Lillard did when traded to the Bucks.

[jayjaysee]

Still really weird to not see Dallas’ name in these reports outside of speculation. KD is one of 10-15 players in the league that you add to the current group and feel like a real contender for Nico’s two timeline game. And Toronto is making serious offers..

[Texas Chuck]

Hard to know what the new group's risk tolerance is, no historical precedence to help us factor it in.

But lots of reports saying their interest is real. Does that interest require an extension? If not, you could trade for him and if it doesn't work out, maybe still flip him at the deadline, though that's risky business.

If a package is Randle based, I'd be pretty tempted to go for it extension or no. If its Gobert based I like it less as a rental or longer term move.

[zimpy27]

In evaluating players in trade proposals, how much stock do you put in their BBREF on/off numbers? I've never paid them much attention, in large part because BBREF's O- and D-ratings haven't been reliable (historically deviating from those on NBA.com, more in some years and less in others), but also because I see them as the metric most influenced by context and, consequently, among the least useful. I've had a few recent conversations where other posters have been major proponents of on/off in their assessments, assigning a great deal of weight in their evaluations. I'm curious to know what others think.

None on pure on/off.

I do look at on/off 2-man lineup data though to see if a starter player being traded away from the team has extremely high +/- with that teams star player.

For example, Ant Edwards has his best on-off when paired with Gobert in RS and McDaniels in playoffs. I don't think Minny move either because of this. Any other player seems fair game. But I wouldn't involve this in value.


For value I'd look at impact stats, ts% and PER over past 3 seasons. I look for consistency too.
One of the bigger factors is games played.

I also use stat muse to give me stats of player with and without star player or key playmaker. I want to see if the players stats increase and efficiency stays the same or improves without star player.

[Klomp]

Hard to know what the new group's risk tolerance is, no historical precedence to help us factor it in.

But lots of reports saying their interest is real. Does that interest require an extension? If not, you could trade for him and if it doesn't work out, maybe still flip him at the deadline, though that's risky business.

If a package is Randle based, I'd be pretty tempted to go for it extension or no. If its Gobert based I like it less as a rental or longer term move.

Reading tea leaves from the past 4 or so years since Lore and Rodriguez were brought on board, as well as their historical business practices, I would say they are pretty willing to take risks. I think that's why they tend to be so controversial in Minnesota, because that nature goes so far against typical Minnesotan behavior.

[HadAnEffectHere]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

I think KD probably wants to go elsewhere (Miami, Texas), the Suns probably are hoping for some other team's assets (probably the Rockets' or Spurs'), but at the end of the day it's a good destination that gives him the best chance of contending and good win now players to the Suns. If the Suns don't get an offer by the draft, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up taking the TWolves offer and Durant accepts it like Lillard did when traded to the Bucks.

Lillard is a normal person who plays the right way. Durant plays loser ball and is so credibly cancerous that it's much harder to call his bluff.

A major issue with trading for Durant is that you have to convince him to change his 0 passes, 0 movement playstyle that suffocated Phoenix and Brooklyn. This is unlikely to happen regardless, but especially unlikely for a team he doesn't want to play for.

[Klomp]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

If you read that report that KD doesn’t want to go to Minnesota, then they should be less motivated to outbid SAS or Houston obviously.

If you read it that he’d rather go to the other three teams, but would be happy with Ant.. Then Minn can still make a strong offer and Phoenix should be interested in Randle if they’re going to keep Booker.

I'll be honest, right after hitting Submit on that post, I went over to Twitter and saw the Shams report. Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

[SkyHook]

In evaluating players in trade proposals, how much stock do you put in their BBREF on/off numbers? I've never paid them much attention, in large part because BBREF's O- and D-ratings haven't been reliable (historically deviating from those on NBA.com, more in some years and less in others), but also because I see them as the metric most influenced by context and, consequently, among the least useful. I've had a few recent conversations where other posters have been major proponents of on/off in their assessments, assigning a great deal of weight in their evaluations. I'm curious to know what others think.

None on pure on/off.

I do look at on/off 2-man lineup data though to see if a starter player being traded away from the team has extremely high +/- with that teams star player.

For example, Ant Edwards has his best on-off when paired with Gobert in RS and McDaniels in playoffs. I don't think Minny move either because of this. Any other player seems fair game. But I wouldn't involve this in value.


For value I'd look at impact stats, ts% and PER over past 3 seasons. I look for consistency too.
One of the bigger factors is games played.

I also use stat muse to give me stats of player with and without star player or key playmaker. I want to see if the players stats increase and efficiency stays the same or improves without star player.

Thanks for the response. I found the bolded to be particularly interesting. I'll have to spend some time looking at that.

Agreed that TS% is crucial. I hardly ever look at PER as it has consistently overvalued inefficient volume scoring and tends to somewhat overinflate the value of rebounding. I find EPM to be a better metric (at least more consistent with my eye test); Steve Ilardi has called it the best of the publicly available ones.

[zimpy27]

Still really weird to not see Dallas’ name in these reports outside of speculation. KD is one of 10-15 players in the league that you add to the current group and feel like a real contender for Nico’s two timeline game. And Toronto is making serious offers..

I think Dallas would make an offer around Gafford, PJ, Klay, Martin, DAL31FRP.

But I don't think that's beating other offers.

[SkyHook]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

If you read that report that KD doesn’t want to go to Minnesota, then they should be less motivated to outbid SAS or Houston obviously.

If you read it that he’d rather go to the other three teams, but would be happy with Ant.. Then Minn can still make a strong offer and Phoenix should be interested in Randle if they’re going to keep Booker.

I'll be honest, right after hitting Submit on that post, I went over to Twitter and saw the Shams report. Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

If talks between Phoenix and Minnesota progress enough to a point where the Suns find the offer most compelling, I imagine that the Wolves would condition the execution of a deal based on being granted the opportunity to speak with Durant and whether they were comfortable with his responses. If he doesn't want to be there, it's pointless to pursue it further.

[jayjaysee]

How does the trade board feel like the odds of Kevin Durant to Minnesota have shifted over the weekend? Dead in the water? Still a chance? No change? More likely?

If you read that report that KD doesn’t want to go to Minnesota, then they should be less motivated to outbid SAS or Houston obviously.

If you read it that he’d rather go to the other three teams, but would be happy with Ant.. Then Minn can still make a strong offer and Phoenix should be interested in Randle if they’re going to keep Booker.

I'll be honest, right after hitting Submit on that post, I went over to Twitter and saw the Shams report. Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

Yeah. It would be a big risk for a team to trade for KD if he doesn’t want to end up there. But the upside is there if the price is something they’re comfortable with.

Just don’t think the final price will be cheap enough to stay in that comfort zone.

I actually thought KD would want to go to Minn based off what looks like a good relationship with Ant and the rest of the talent they can keep. So a bit surprised.

[Godaddycurse]

If you read that report that KD doesn’t want to go to Minnesota, then they should be less motivated to outbid SAS or Houston obviously.

If you read it that he’d rather go to the other three teams, but would be happy with Ant.. Then Minn can still make a strong offer and Phoenix should be interested in Randle if they’re going to keep Booker.

I'll be honest, right after hitting Submit on that post, I went over to Twitter and saw the Shams report. Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

Yeah. It would be a big risk for a team to trade for KD if he doesn’t want to end up there. But the upside is there if the price is something they’re comfortable with.

Just don’t think the final price will be cheap enough to stay in that comfort zone.

I actually thought KD would want to go to Minn based off what looks like a good relationship with Ant and the rest of the talent they can keep. So a bit surprised.

maybe minny didnt want to offer him full max? does seem strange otherwise

[jayjaysee]

Still really weird to not see Dallas’ name in these reports outside of speculation. KD is one of 10-15 players in the league that you add to the current group and feel like a real contender for Nico’s two timeline game. And Toronto is making serious offers..

I think Dallas would make an offer around Gafford, PJ, Klay, Martin, DAL31FRP.

But I don't think that's beating other offers.

I would’ve thought the offer would be the LAL first, not the Dallas first..

And would put that offer pretty comparable with what fans of other teams are willing to offer.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

In evaluating players in trade proposals, how much stock do you put in their BBREF on/off numbers? I've never paid them much attention, in large part because BBREF's O- and D-ratings haven't been reliable (historically deviating from those on NBA.com, more in some years and less in others), but also because I see them as the metric most influenced by context and, consequently, among the least useful. I've had a few recent conversations where other posters have been major proponents of on/off in their assessments, assigning a great deal of weight in their evaluations. I'm curious to know what others think.

I hate it personally . Most misused stat imo. Stat only value is comparing players with similar roles on the court.

People would call somebody with somebody with a +0.5 a net positive say -0.5 is a net negative . When reality , they both neutral. Most people lack understanding of standard error and standard deviations to have a reasonable plus / minus debate with them.

The coefficients are another problem. They reactionary instead of predicting. Like is a guard getting a block really equal to a center getting 7 blocks?

[Texas Chuck]

Still really weird to not see Dallas’ name in these reports outside of speculation. KD is one of 10-15 players in the league that you add to the current group and feel like a real contender for Nico’s two timeline game. And Toronto is making serious offers..

I think Dallas would make an offer around Gafford, PJ, Klay, Martin, DAL31FRP.

But I don't think that's beating other offers.

I would’ve thought the offer would be the LAL first, not the Dallas first..

And would put that offer pretty comparable with what fans of other teams are willing to offer.

Salary matching gets trickier(though not totally impossible), but Dallas could up this offer by including Lively instead of Gafford. Might still not be the best offer particularly if the reports of wanting a 25 1st round pick are super important to the Suns, but its a starting PF, two other good rotation guys and a 3rd year center who had a great playoff run already along with the unprotected first. It's a pretty strong offer for KD. And if they really wanted that first PJ or Lively could almost certainly be converted to one, though maybe not as high as 10.

[zimpy27]

Still really weird to not see Dallas’ name in these reports outside of speculation. KD is one of 10-15 players in the league that you add to the current group and feel like a real contender for Nico’s two timeline game. And Toronto is making serious offers..

I think Dallas would make an offer around Gafford, PJ, Klay, Martin, DAL31FRP.

But I don't think that's beating other offers.

I would’ve thought the offer would be the LAL first, not the Dallas first..

And would put that offer pretty comparable with what fans of other teams are willing to offer.

Maybe both go out? That could be a solid deal.

[zimpy27]

I think Dallas would make an offer around Gafford, PJ, Klay, Martin, DAL31FRP.

But I don't think that's beating other offers.

I would’ve thought the offer would be the LAL first, not the Dallas first..

And would put that offer pretty comparable with what fans of other teams are willing to offer.

Salary matching gets trickier(though not totally impossible), but Dallas could up this offer by including Lively instead of Gafford. Might still not be the best offer particularly if the reports of wanting a 25 1st round pick are super important to the Suns, but its a starting PF, two other good rotation guys and a 3rd year center who had a great playoff run already along with the unprotected first. It's a pretty strong offer for KD. And if they really wanted that first PJ or Lively could almost certainly be converted to one, though maybe not as high as 10.

Would need to be Lively for Richards swap on top of Klay, PJ, Gafford, Martin. To make salary work.

[Texas Chuck]

I would’ve thought the offer would be the LAL first, not the Dallas first..

And would put that offer pretty comparable with what fans of other teams are willing to offer.

Salary matching gets trickier(though not totally impossible), but Dallas could up this offer by including Lively instead of Gafford. Might still not be the best offer particularly if the reports of wanting a 25 1st round pick are super important to the Suns, but its a starting PF, two other good rotation guys and a 3rd year center who had a great playoff run already along with the unprotected first. It's a pretty strong offer for KD. And if they really wanted that first PJ or Lively could almost certainly be converted to one, though maybe not as high as 10.

Would need to be Lively for Richards swap on top of Klay, PJ, Gafford, Martin. To make salary work.

No, and Dallas probably should back out at that point. Dallas can bring in other matching: Hardy, Powell, Marshall. But giving up both centers makes adding KD less appealing. And now Dallas' offer is really starting to be the strongest with that much win now help plus two strong future assets.