Hollinger Top 25 FA Rankings: Giddey at #5

[boozapalooza]

Read on Twitter

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6418543/2025/06/16/nba-free-agents-2025-lebron-james-harden-jonathan-kuminga/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twhq&source=twitterhq

Thought this was an interesting ranking put out by John Hollinger today ranking the top 25 free agents. He puts Giddey ahead of Randle, Turner, Naz, Kuminga, to name a few. Good to see our guy getting some love. Tre Jones also at 16 ahead of a few quality names. Writeup below:

My formula spit out a fanciful number that would give pause to even the biggest Giddey fan. So instead, let me make the larger argument for why Giddey might be worth more than you think: He is unusually young for a player in this position. Despite having played for four years, Giddey won’t turn 23 until October. Thus, his accomplishments to date on a rookie contract must be seen in the context of players who are usually at least a year or two older by this point in their NBA careers.

No, he is not an All-Star or anything close to it. Yes, his defense is bad, he has no pull-up game to speak of and the 3-point shooting still comes and goes. That said, Giddey shot 37.8 percent from 3 last season on decent volume and hit 78.1 percent from the foul line; people talk about him like he’s Tony Allen, but he requires defending at the arc. The biggest limitation, actually, is his push shot, which may leave him struggling to generate a high volume of attempts even if he’s making them consistently.

Inside the arc, Giddey shot only 51.2 percent last season and did not have a notably high free-throw rate; that would trouble me more than the outside shooting if I were a Chicagoan trying to project ahead. Giddey also has some other subtle advantages, though; he’s an awesome rebounder for a perimeter player, and his ability to play point guard at his size offers some interesting lineup options.

The Bulls will have the upper hand in any negotiation because Giddey is a restricted free agent, and because only one other team (Brooklyn) has significant cap space. Giddey is young, but it still seems unlikely that the Nets would commit a big heap of their cap space to trying to scare off Chicago from matching.

Where does this dance end? I wouldn’t quite go to the BORD$ number above, but something around four years and $100 million to $110 million feels right from both sides.

[sco]

Interesting Tre is at #16.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

What number did BORD$ come up with for Giddey?

[nomorezorro]

What number did BORD$ come up with for Giddey?

$34,768,411

tre is at $21,486,798

[ghostinthepost1]

Here is what he wrote about Kuminga, if anyone else was interested:



OK. ... Let’s talk about this.

Kuminga represents the fundamental limitation with statistically evaluating free agents: You can only go by what contribution they made to their current team, but what you’re trying to solve for is the player's value to their next team. Most of the time, those two numbers are close enough that the valuation problem isn’t particularly challenging. However, for odd players or odd systems, the degree of difficulty multiplies.

In Kuminga’s case, we might have a particularly notable example of that problem: An odd player and an odd system — magnified, in this case, by the player not fitting the system. Golden State’s read-react, pass-and-cut system has made other tunnel-visiony on-ball shot-creators look much worse than they were before or after (see Russell, D’Angelo; Schröder, Dennis), and Kuminga may be another. Alas, we can’t be totally sure, because Golden State is the only place he’s ever played. Our entire body of work for evaluating Kuminga is in the context of his square-peg game and Golden State’s round hole of an offense.

To explain this statistically, there is a lot in Kuminga’s track record that suggests maybe he just isn’t all that good. Most notably, his career shooting marks are 33.2 percent from 3 and 69.6 percent from the line. He’s just OK as a defender, seems to have poor instincts for reading the game at both ends and is prone to spectacular bouts of dribble blindness. The Warriors have pushed him to be a beast on the glass, but historically, players rarely change their stripes in this realm, and his rebound rate has stayed right around 10.0 percent his whole career — fine for a combo forward but unremarkable.

On the other hand, Kuminga has one marker that is off the charts: his free-throw rate. Drawing fouls at a high rate is an innate signal of talent (even if some grifting is involved) because players who do so are continually creating advantages that force defenses to react adversely, desperately or both.

Kuminga drew 10 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions last season in a non-trivial sample of 1,144 minutes. That was the eighth-highest rate of free-throw earning in the league among players with at least 1,000 minutes played. In other seasons, it hasn’t been as high, but Kuminga still has drawn an impressive 7.3 per 100 for his career.

Here's the thing: Last season, 17 NBA players played at least 1,000 minutes and earned at least 8.5 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions. Of those, 16 have played in an NBA All-Star Game. The other one is Kuminga.

Even if you lower the bar to his career rate of 7.3 per 100, the list of players to clear the 7.0 mark is almost entirely past, present or future All-Stars (i.e. Franz Wagner). The three worst players on the list are Deni Avdija, RJ Barrett and Bennedict Mathurin. Of the 35 players besides Kuminga to clear 7.0 in at least 1,000 minutes last season, 28 have played in at least one All-Star Game.

That’s for one season, but we can also look at career marks. It’s more challenging because free-throw rates have been declining overall; achieving Kuminga’s free-throw rate was a less amazing feat, say, 20 years ago, when 21 different players did it.

Historically, the one notable player to draw fouls at this high a rate year after year and not turn into an All-Star was Corey Maggette, who was a very good sixth man for several years with the Clippers. Is it possible Kuminga is just a reheated Magette? Sure, but even that player is probably worth a pretty significant free agent investment.

At any rate, you can see Golden State’s dilemma. The Warriors have a talented 22-year-old who might prove to be very, very good in another team’s system but seems highly unlikely to thrive in their own. Also, the Warriors would handcuff their other offseason options by re-signing Kuminga at any remotely market-level price, because it would push them to the first apron and require some limbo building the rest of the roster while staying below the second apron.

The best outcome for everyone would likely be a sign-and-trade that brings back small contracts and draft compensation, but that’s always easier to theorize about in June than to execute in a small time window in July.

One final note: Kuminga could also sign his qualifying offer of $10.2 million and become an unrestricted free agent next July, when there should be more cap space in the market. While this would be palatable in the very short term for the Warriors, the risk of his uncompensated departure a year from now likely incentivizes Golden State to keep this option off the table. Even if Kuminga doesn’t fit, the Warriors would likely be better off with the Masai Ujiri Memorial Delayed Sign-and-Trade, re-signing him this summer to use in a trade package later.

[boozapalooza]

Here is what he wrote about Kuminga, if anyone else was interested:




Kuminga drew 10 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions last season in a non-trivial sample of 1,144 minutes. That was the eighth-highest rate of free-throw earning in the league among players with at least 1,000 minutes played. In other seasons, it hasn’t been as high, but Kuminga still has drawn an impressive 7.3 per 100 for his career.

Here's the thing: Last season, 17 NBA players played at least 1,000 minutes and earned at least 8.5 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions. Of those, 16 have played in an NBA All-Star Game. The other one is Kuminga.

Even if you lower the bar to his career rate of 7.3 per 100, the list of players to clear the 7.0 mark is almost entirely past, present or future All-Stars (i.e. Franz Wagner). The three worst players on the list are Deni Avdija, RJ Barrett and Bennedict Mathurin. Of the 35 players besides Kuminga to clear 7.0 in at least 1,000 minutes last season, 28 have played in at least one All-Star Game.

That’s for one season, but we can also look at career marks. It’s more challenging because free-throw rates have been declining overall; achieving Kuminga’s free-throw rate was a less amazing feat, say, 20 years ago, when 21 different players did it.

Historically, the one notable player to draw fouls at this high a rate year after year and not turn into an All-Star was Corey Maggette, who was a very good sixth man for several years with the Clippers. Is it possible Kuminga is just a reheated Magette? Sure, but even that player is probably worth a pretty significant free agent investment.

Those are some wild stats I never realized around free throw attempts rate, lol

Great to see for him, but gotta get his % up from 66%

[ChettheJet]

It's one thing to rank who looks like the best available. Just how many teams are looking for a PG, or if you want to put Giddey as a point forward of whatever. But how many of those teams have the cap space, are willing to go above an apron or what would they be willing to to send to the Bulls in a S&T? And to me, the bad news for Josh is, his options on which teams fit into those narrow parameters look pretty small. Next year there might be more teams that have the space available but he's on the market now.

Tre Jones is is a slightly different situation, he would be more likely to sign a one year deal and look for a team in need next summer who has the space to offer him a longer contract.

In that case the Bulls would be better off just buying out Terry and Carter to make room for whatever Giddey gets and Jones.

Now it's probably Kuminga's gamble to sign the qualifying offer, then either stay in GS or get traded to the Bulls for let's say Ayo. The Bulls see what he does in their system and then it's their gamble to resign him, or somebody else throws stupid money at him. GSW see if Ayo takes the next step up in the Kerr system and maybe they want him back.

[Chi town]

Reports already saying 3/60 for Kuminga back to GS.

[Chi town]

What number did BORD$ come up with for Giddey?

$34,768,411

tre is at $21,486,798

That algorithm is jacked.

[Dan Z]

Reports already saying 3/60 for Kuminga back to GS.

Read on Twitter

[Indomitable]

What number did BORD$ come up with for Giddey?

$34,768,411

tre is at $21,486,798

That algorithm is jacked.

Tre will be disappointed

[Chi town]

Reports already saying 3/60 for Kuminga back to GS.

Read on Twitter

I like Kuminga in a 3 way to the Heat, Vuc to Dubs, and expiring filler and a pick to Bulls.

[Dan Z]

Reports already saying 3/60 for Kuminga back to GS.

Read on Twitter

I like Kuminga in a 3 way to the Heat, Vuc to Dubs, and expiring filler and a pick to Bulls.

What kind of pick do you think the Warriors would give up to do that?

[DASMACKDOWN]

I just hope teams and agents are not just name dropping us. We need actual action in these moves. That is the one thing that hasnt happen in this franchise for years.

[Andi Obst]

$34,768,411

tre is at $21,486,798

That algorithm is jacked.

Tre will be disappointed

I don't think he expects to make 20+ mil on his next deal, to be fair.

[Jcool0]

I just hope teams and agents are not just name dropping us. We need actual action in these moves. That is the one thing that hasnt happen in this franchise for years.

Be prepared to be disappointed.

[dougthonus]

Read on Twitter

I like Kuminga in a 3 way to the Heat, Vuc to Dubs, and expiring filler and a pick to Bulls.

What kind of pick do you think the Warriors would give up to do that?

I can't imagine the Warriors are giving up a pick and Kuminga to get Vuc. If we didn't want Kuminga straight up for Vuc, then the pick would be coming from the 3rd team that wanted him.

[sco]

Read on Twitter

I like Kuminga in a 3 way to the Heat, Vuc to Dubs, and expiring filler and a pick to Bulls.

What kind of pick do you think the Warriors would give up to do that?

I'm not a big Kuminga fan, but there is a price that I'd be happy to get him. A 3/$60M, even a 3/$70M deal wouldn't bother me too much. I'd be fine trading Vuc or Pat to make the deal happen, and getting rid of either guy would be 50% of the reason for the deal in my mind. I'd even throw in #45. There's a better than 50/50 chance he doesn't pan out, but IMO, worst case he's a decent 6th man.

I think the one factor that would change my mind is if we drafted a guy who we'd see in a similar role.

[Chi town]

I like Kuminga in a 3 way to the Heat, Vuc to Dubs, and expiring filler and a pick to Bulls.

What kind of pick do you think the Warriors would give up to do that?

I'm not a big Kuminga fan, but there is a price that I'd be happy to get him. A 3/$60M, even a 3/$70M deal wouldn't bother me too much. I'd be fine trading Vuc or Pat to make the deal happen, and getting rid of either guy would be 50% of the reason for the deal in my mind. I'd even throw in #45. There's a better than 50/50 chance he doesn't pan out, but IMO, worst case he's a decent 6th man.

I think the one factor that would change my mind is if we drafted a guy who we'd see in a similar role.

So let’s say Vuc for Kuminga.

What are the mins breakdown for the rotation?
Keep in mind Giddey always plays SF with two guards next to him.

[sco]

What kind of pick do you think the Warriors would give up to do that?

I'm not a big Kuminga fan, but there is a price that I'd be happy to get him. A 3/$60M, even a 3/$70M deal wouldn't bother me too much. I'd be fine trading Vuc or Pat to make the deal happen, and getting rid of either guy would be 50% of the reason for the deal in my mind. I'd even throw in #45. There's a better than 50/50 chance he doesn't pan out, but IMO, worst case he's a decent 6th man.

I think the one factor that would change my mind is if we drafted a guy who we'd see in a similar role.

So let’s say Vuc for Kuminga.

What are the mins breakdown for the rotation?
Keep in mind Giddey always plays SF with two guards next to him.

I would think you'd need to shift some of Giddey's minutes to one of the G spots. Even so, you have 96 minutes at the 3/4 that you could split 3-ways. Also, there would likely need to be a staggering of the "bad defense" minutes with Coby and Kuminga not on the floor much together.