2025 Draft prospects - thread 3

[burlydee]

Uh, that’s because Zo, Ayo, and Tre were hurt.

Buz and Zo at rarely played together.
Billy never played Smith at the 4.

The guy is committed to small ball.

Its a bad strategy and I hope he doesn't stick to it. Giddey played better in lineups with one guard. Tre/Ayo, Giddey and Coby starting is coaching malpractice.

I thought Coby and Giddey both were starters this past season...?

I was referring to 3 guard lineups where Giddey, Coby and either Ayo, Ball or Tre started. I hated those lineups. Took the ball out of your best playmaker hands and added a worse shooter to the floor. Even though I didn't love Huerter, I thought they were better when he started simply because of the role he played.

[DuckIII]

Will Riley may need to wait a long time.

I would absolutely see if I could get an extra pick to nab him. I've got a lot of faith in him developing into an elite scorer.

Same. And his D improved a lot in the last 2 months of the season. To me he’s a clear top 20 in this draft and has an extremely reliable floor with a solid ceiling. He’s one of the 4-5 guys I’d LOVE to pick a second pick to get.

I just can’t get over how deep this draft is. At least for my personal tastes. I really can’t recall one I considered even close to this deep. There are 25 players in this draft who look like they could be really good. That’s just wild to me.

[sco]

Will Riley may need to wait a long time.

I would absolutely see if I could get an extra pick to nab him. I've got a lot of faith in him developing into an elite scorer.

Same. And his D improved a lot in the last 2 months of the season. To me he’s a clear top 20 in this draft and has an extremely reliable floor with a solid ceiling. He’s one of the 4-5 guys I’d LOVE to pick a second pick to get.

I just can’t get over how deep this draft is. At least for my personal tastes. I really can’t recall one I considered even close to this deep. There are 25 players in this draft who look like they could be really good. That’s just wild to me.

Yeah, this is the first year in a while that I'd support pushing hard to get a 2nd 1st.

[DuckIII]

I'm not a huge fan of Ace, but I would laugh if he fell to us because the potential is still there.

You trade house for Ace if he drops anywhere near after 4.

Yes to the first post, no to the second. Ace is starting to absolutely wreak like an OJ Mayo situation where he stubbornly stays ranked high because of hype inertia.

Where are the positive signs over the last year? He had a very disappointing season with all kinds of concerning data regarding - wait for it - his shooting/scoring. Which is supposed to be his elite skill-based trait.

EDIT: Evidently his measurements were underwhelming as well (taken from this thread - haven’t looked it up).

And now he’s not worked out for even a single team, to try to undo the question marks around that issue? Not even for one team?

And reportedly blowing his interviews as well? And while I’m sure this is the type of thing I might get some heat for: that does not surprise me. In the interviews I’ve seen with Ace he comes off as an idiot. It’s not something I consider as an outsider evaluating him as a prospect, but it’s not a positive and it’s consistent with the reports.

What in the last year has actually made Ace look as good as the hype? It’s all been disappointments and concerns (outside of build and athleticism - he’s clearly talented).

Would I take Ace at 12? Definitely. You roll the dice on the natural talent just like with Matas. But would I offer meaningful assets to move up? No way. Especially not in a draft this deep.

Indeed, I’ve had Ace ranked back at 7 for awhile before these stories started coming out just based on my own internet “scouting.” I’d trade up for another “faller” in KJ who I have ranked above Ace anyway.

[sco]

Uh, that’s because Zo, Ayo, and Tre were hurt.

Buz and Zo at rarely played together.
Billy never played Smith at the 4.

The guy is committed to small ball.

Its a bad strategy and I hope he doesn't stick to it. Giddey played better in lineups with one guard. Tre/Ayo, Giddey and Coby starting is coaching malpractice.

I thought Coby and Giddey both were starters this past season...?

IIRC post the Zach trade we inserted Ball into the starting line-up, but then he got hurt and (again IIRC) we inserted Jones into the starting line-up until he got hurt, and then we inserted Huerter.

IMO, we are/were much better with that 5th starter being a POA defensive guard. While I'd be happy if we resigned Jones, I don't see it happening. He was probably the best fit both as a POA defender and backup PG. Barring that, IMO our best move is going with a 50/50 timeshare of Ball/Ayo in that role, and rooting for a return to form from both guys.

Then we just draft BPA and be happy.

[DuckIII]

Ace Bailey is some weird Rorschach test where people see entirely different things.

This is a guy with

bad efficiency numbers (53.6% TS% and 51.4 eFG%)

Bad free-throw percentage (69%)

Recorded more turnovers than assists

Bad Free throw Rate

Bad BPM

To top off a year of bad play - he's apparently been bad in interviews at the combine and uncooperative with teams wanting to work him out

He's like a walking red flag at this point

You're just salivating over JR Smith

I mean, he was the consensus #2 overall recruit in the country behind Flagg heading into the year, ahead of his teammate Harper. Its not like his pedigree is just based off one season at Rutgers.

He didn’t even have a bad year stats wise but by midseason his team wasnt going anywhere and hes ready to move on. Rutgers program was highly dysfunctional this year.

Look at Ant Man’s stats his one year at Georgia (40% FG, 29% 3PT, 1:1 TO/ast ratio). Georgia went 16-16. One year numbers on a bad college team don’t tell the story at all.

Ace and Harper both on Rutgers and one of them is clearly the second best prospect in this draft while the other one is sliding down the board. Would be foolish to dismiss what he did at Rutgers because he was highly ranked in HS. He leveled up in competition and completely wet the bed for a whole season.

Post NCAA season he’s continued to do everything wrong and he’s sliding down the board now. If he were great off the court and worked out for everyone and crushed his interviews he’d be climbing the board and going top 3. Million of dollars are at stake and he’s proving to be an idiot on top of everything - This kid is all red flags. Why would you willingly invite cancer into the organism ?

I agree with all of this except the end. There are red flags but I’ve not seen anything that would make me say “stay away not matter what - cancer alert.”

I view the red flags as: (a) maybe he’s not that good; and (b) lacks the intangibles to offset any of those concerns.

That’s how I would summarize the reports I’ve seen. Not that he’s some toxic prima donna or something.

[DuckIII]

New Bleacher Report mock draft.

It has Ace dropping to 6th. Malauch selected at #4.

The Bulls pick Asa Newell at #12.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25206366-2025-nba-mock-draft-updated-predictions-after-desmond-bane-trade

If we pass on KJ (and CMB and Demin) to take Newell someone might need to call in a wellness check on me.

That said these mocks are WILD. All so different in so many meaningful ways. This is going to be such a fun and interesting draft to watch. Assuming I survive it.

[DuckIII]

newell is probably my favorite of the prospects i'm not particularly excited about, if that makes sense

i wish he showed stronger traits in college, but there's nothing to his game that makes me go "he can't work for that specific reason," and i think it's pretty easy to imagine him being a stylistic fit for Our New Direction, which the front office is apparently making a huge priority now. like going after an athlete, like going after a potential plus defender...wouldn't be hyped, but i wouldn't be mad either

The only range-projected guy I want less is Jase. And they both will be fine pros.

But they are both aim low picks for an aim low GM whose goal is to prioritize the short term to always at least be decent.

Which is why the Newell pick would not be a surprise at all. I don’t think he’d take Jase though. Just too many guards already.

[DuckIII]

newell is probably my favorite of the prospects i'm not particularly excited about, if that makes sense

i wish he showed stronger traits in college, but there's nothing to his game that makes me go "he can't work for that specific reason," and i think it's pretty easy to imagine him being a stylistic fit for Our New Direction, which the front office is apparently making a huge priority now. like going after an athlete, like going after a potential plus defender...wouldn't be hyped, but i wouldn't be mad either

I get it.

Newell is on my do not want list, but he's the one I'd be most OK with drafting if he was picked. He'll be an NBA player no doubt, but I feel like he'll be 'just a guy' if that makes sense. He reminds me or Wendell Carter in that regard.

I also get it. Because for me that guy is Queen.

[Ice Man]

Yeah, Ace is giving off Tyrus vibes. Worth a #12 pick if he drops that far, but I can see why the teams with the higher lottery picks are looking elsewhere.

[Infinity2152]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB? I see guys keep moving up, CMB seems like a sure fire defensive player and fits with Matas, especially if Matas plays SF. 6'7, 239, 7' wingspan, strong, good IQ, tough player. Needs to work on shooting, but that's the thing that improves the most in the league for most players anyway. Maybe my top prospect in that range. We're going to need some strength, some tough players, especially if we trade Vuc for a smaller player.

He's skilled, great defensive effort, good passer. Really want him, Maluach or Essengue. Don't spend assets trying to get another offensive player, draft the best defender we can get. At minimum, these guys should have high defensive floors. Moving away from Maluach too. Can usually get very good defensive centers with late draft picks.

Of course, if Bailey drops anywhere near 12, go get him. When players drop this hard, this late in the draft process, lot of times it's from teams overthinking, they've had too long to nitpick. Seems like Bailey's attitude is the main reason for his drop. After dealing with Pat for so long, that's a problem, but Bailey is too talented to pass if we could maybe use some resources to move up to 8-12 to get him. Three weeks ago it would have been crazy to suggest Bailey drops to 8.

[CobysHairpick]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB? I see guys keep moving up, CMB seems like a sure fire defensive player and fits with Matas, especially if Matas plays SF. 6'7, 239, 7' wingspan, strong, good IQ, tough player. needs to work on shooting, but that's the thing that improves the most in the league for most players anyway. Maybe my top prospect in that range. We're going to need some strength, some tough players, especially if we trade Vuc for a smaller player.

He's skilled, great defensive effort, good passer. Really want him, Maluach or Essengue. Don't spend assets trying to get another offensive player, draft the best defender we can get. At minimum, these guys should have high defensive floors.

Personally, I'm concerned he won't be an effective 3pt shooter. His midrange is very good but his FT% doesn't bode well for future development. I also don't like how he's severely undersized at 6'6 but he does have good length and vertical so it may not be that big of a problem except against elite height/length.

What is his ceiling? Players who get comped to Draymond almost never work out. Who's the last one that did? Regardless, I'd simply draft the highest ceiling and pray Billy develops him like Matas, Coby, Giddey, etc.

[sco]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB? I see guys keep moving up, CMB seems like a sure fire defensive player and fits with Matas, especially if Matas plays SF. 6'7, 239, 7' wingspan, strong, good IQ, tough player. Needs to work on shooting, but that's the thing that improves the most in the league for most players anyway. Maybe my top prospect in that range. We're going to need some strength, some tough players, especially if we trade Vuc for a smaller player.

He's skilled, great defensive effort, good passer. Really want him, Maluach or Essengue. Don't spend assets trying to get another offensive player, draft the best defender we can get. At minimum, these guys should have high defensive floors. Moving away from Maluach too. Can usually get very good defensive centers with late draft picks.

Of course, if Bailey drops anywhere near 12, go get him. When players drop this hard, this late in the draft process, lot of times it's from teams overthinking, they've had too long to nitpick. Seems like Bailey's attitude is the main reason for his drop. After dealing with Pat for so long, that's a problem, but Bailey is too talented to pass if we could maybe use some resources to move up to 8-12 to get him. Three weeks ago it would have been crazy to suggest Bailey drops to 8.

I don't hate the idea of CMB. He looks like a defensive stud. We could use a guy who can guard 2-5. Essengue looks good to me.

Bailey would be a high risk/high reward pick. I'd support it. He strikes me as a guy who'd benefit from the Billy D rookie school.

[Jcool0]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB? I see guys keep moving up, CMB seems like a sure fire defensive player and fits with Matas, especially if Matas plays SF. 6'7, 239, 7' wingspan, strong, good IQ, tough player. needs to work on shooting, but that's the thing that improves the most in the league for most players anyway. Maybe my top prospect in that range. We're going to need some strength, some tough players, especially if we trade Vuc for a smaller player.

He's skilled, great defensive effort, good passer. Really want him, Maluach or Essengue. Don't spend assets trying to get another offensive player, draft the best defender we can get. At minimum, these guys should have high defensive floors.

Personally, I'm concerned he won't be an effective 3pt shooter. His midrange is very good but his FT% doesn't bode well for future development. I also don't like how he's severely undersized at 6'6 but he does have good length and vertical so it may not be that big of a problem except against elite height/length.

What is his ceiling? Players who get comped to Draymond almost never work out. Who's the last one that did? Regardless, I'd simply draft the highest ceiling and pray Billy develops him like Matas, Coby, Giddey, etc.

70% FT% is fine. He is 6'6.50" barefoot so add shoes and is around 6'8" and 240lbs with a 7'2" wingspan.

[Infinity2152]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB? I see guys keep moving up, CMB seems like a sure fire defensive player and fits with Matas, especially if Matas plays SF. 6'7, 239, 7' wingspan, strong, good IQ, tough player. needs to work on shooting, but that's the thing that improves the most in the league for most players anyway. Maybe my top prospect in that range. We're going to need some strength, some tough players, especially if we trade Vuc for a smaller player.

He's skilled, great defensive effort, good passer. Really want him, Maluach or Essengue. Don't spend assets trying to get another offensive player, draft the best defender we can get. At minimum, these guys should have high defensive floors.

Personally, I'm concerned he won't be an effective 3pt shooter. His midrange is very good but his FT% doesn't bode well for future development. I also don't like how he's severely undersized at 6'6 but he does have good length and vertical so it may not be that big of a problem except against elite height/length.

What is his ceiling? Players who get comped to Draymond almost never work out. Who's the last one that did? Regardless, I'd simply draft the highest ceiling and pray Billy develops him like Matas, Coby, Giddey, etc.

70% FT% is fine. He is 6'6.50" barefoot so add shoes and is around 6'8" and 240lbs with a 7'2" wingspan.

This. Coming in at 70% FT for a rookie big, not worrying about that. If his three-point range remains below average, but he's a great defender, rebounder, smart player, I'll take that all day. Highest ceiling is mostly a guessing game by the time you get to 12. Tyrus Thomas was supposed to have a higher ceiling than Aldridge too. Stop with these developmental prospects that have shown nothing. We see CMB playing defense and his energy and effort. That translates. Remember Elton Brand? Ceiling was projected fairly low because of his physicals, great player, we traded him for Tyson Chandler, far better physicals and "higher ceiling". He was not better than Brand. CMB could be a modern day Brand. Smaller, but the league is smaller, and better three point shooter (Brand didn't shoot them at all).

At 12, I take the lower risk prospect that's likely to be a good-very good player, vs the extremely high risk, high potential player that could be nothing. Any player viewed with really high potential dropping to 12 usually has bust risk too.

[DuckIII]

Players who get comped to Draymond almost never work out. Who's the last one that did?

Given the large number of appealing options, I definitely get why some don't want CMB. Different strokes. But I was curious about this line. The types of guys I see getting the Dray comp are usually late first rounder types and its basically just a reach for a comp in a mock draft. I can't recall the last time I saw a projected lottery pick being compared to Green. Who are you thinking of?

[DuckIII]

Is there some reason people seem to be pulling away from CMB?

I'm not. I still have him as my 3rd ranked guy at 12 for the Bulls, and one of those guys on my list above him is KJ who I just have a hard time believing will be on the board. So practically speaking the only guy I have ahead of him is Essenge. And he's looking increasingly likely to not be there either. He might even go above KJ at this point.

So there is a very real possibility that when the 12th pick rolls around, CMB will be my favorite option.

That said, his size and hideous 3-ball are legitimate concerns. As with most guys who could be available at 12, even when I don't agree I understand why people like and dislike certain players. And there are so many wildly different types of players to choose from this year.

To be clear though, I'm not one of those fans (I think you are, if I recall correctly) who is looking at prospects based on what they can do next year. I don't give a **** about our win total next year. I care about the long term future and player development. The thing with CMB is the people who do care about next year seem to want him for that reason, and the people who don't want him think he doesn't have an adequate ceiling. I personally see a guy with both in his situation. I think he's a terrific fit for how I think we are wanting to play now (the actual plan could be very different than what I think the strategy is and should be), and I believe he does have an excellent ceiling as an all around multi-dimensional winner. Really, if he adds a 3 (which no given - he's baaaaaaad at it) his ceiling takes a huge leap. Just adding that one thing. And I like him for us even if he doesn't. I reject the theory that all 5 guys have to hit 3s. That's how Buzelis goes 11th and its also just not true as a matter of strategy. Its better, but its not mandatory.

[CobysHairpick]

Personally, I'm concerned he won't be an effective 3pt shooter. His midrange is very good but his FT% doesn't bode well for future development. I also don't like how he's severely undersized at 6'6 but he does have good length and vertical so it may not be that big of a problem except against elite height/length.

What is his ceiling? Players who get comped to Draymond almost never work out. Who's the last one that did? Regardless, I'd simply draft the highest ceiling and pray Billy develops him like Matas, Coby, Giddey, etc.

70% FT% is fine. He is 6'6.50" barefoot so add shoes and is around 6'8" and 240lbs with a 7'2" wingspan.

This. Coming in at 70% FT for a rookie big, not worrying about that. If his three-point range remains below average, but he's a great defender, rebounder, smart player, I'll take that all day. Highest ceiling is mostly a guessing game by the time you get to 12. That's what had us drafting Tyrus Thomas and Patrick Williams anyway over more proven players. Stop with these developmental prospects that have shown nothing. We see CMB playing defense and his energy and effort. That translates.

Apologies, when I say highest ceiling I don't mean just the best athlete. Highest ceiling must include good tape and traits as well. To me, Queen has a higher ceiling based on his 3pt shooting in his last two March Madness games. As does Demin based on his good shooting performance at the Combine, and even Newell and possibly Beringer. I also like Carter Bryant's potential considering he was a scorer in high school and has underrated handles. I'd take all of them before CMB, personally.

[Infinity2152]

Think if you comp any player to any other player other than centers in the NBA and the main point of contention is "can't shoot threes", it's going to be a high failure rate. He's good at basically everything thing else on both sides of the ball. A lot of Draymond's game is high effort and IQ, those are winning talents, better than good shooting. And usually leads to improved shooting, Draymond and Jimmy Butler are similar types. They're not great shooters, but they're passable now.

Good tape and traits? He's 6'8 with a 7'2" wingspan, 8'10" standing reach. 34.5 vertical. Those are outstanding traits for a modern PF. He can handle the ball, rebounds, throws alley oops, tape shows consistent solid scorer, great defender, averaged 17 pts, 8 rbs, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 steals with a crazy PER of 27.8 and WS 8.2. He's going to very good as a switchable PF, able to guard 1-5.

Only power conference player in the country with over 60 TS%, 20+% assist rate, 20+ percent defense rebound rate, and 4+% block rate. On a team that finished dead last in the SEC, he's top 5 in the country in BPM. What tape are you looking at?

CMB shot 5 3's his entire freshman season and 34 his sophomore. Maybe give him time to expand his range? He just turned 20 like a week ago, he was 18 and 19. Freshman year, one of 2 D1 freshmen with BPM over 10. The other was Reed Sheppard, who went 3 last year.

[Jcool0]

70% FT% is fine. He is 6'6.50" barefoot so add shoes and is around 6'8" and 240lbs with a 7'2" wingspan.

This. Coming in at 70% FT for a rookie big, not worrying about that. If his three-point range remains below average, but he's a great defender, rebounder, smart player, I'll take that all day. Highest ceiling is mostly a guessing game by the time you get to 12. That's what had us drafting Tyrus Thomas and Patrick Williams anyway over more proven players. Stop with these developmental prospects that have shown nothing. We see CMB playing defense and his energy and effort. That translates.

Apologies, when I say highest ceiling I don't mean just the best athlete. Highest ceiling must include good tape and traits as well. To me, Queen has a higher ceiling based on his 3pt shooting in his last two March Madness games. As does Demin based on his good shooting performance at the Combine, and even Newell and possibly Beringer. I also like Carter Bryant's potential considering he was a scorer in high school and has underrated handles. I'd take all of them before CMB, personally.

He is high upside because he went 2-3 and 1-4 in two March Madness games???