2025 Offseason Trade and Free Agency Thread (Wow this is fun!)

[Hal14]

It's foolish to reject out of hand trading Brown for young talent and picks. Would you swap him for Flagg? Of course, but Dallas aren't moving that pick, so what needs to get added to the next guy for you to bite? The question is what is the threshold you have to hit for it to start making sense.

There isn't even that big of a gap imo between Flagg and Harper.

[Celts17Pride]

It's foolish to reject out of hand trading Brown for young talent and picks. Would you swap him for Flagg? Of course, but Dallas aren't moving that pick, so what needs to get added to the next guy for you to bite? The question is what is the threshold you have to hit for it to start making sense.

There isn't even that big of a gap imo between Flagg and Harper.

Harper can't shoot

[threrf23]

I don't think the Spurs consider Jaylen until Giannis is off the market. This isn't a knock on Jaylen. They have scoring from their backcourt and from Wemby, they have Castle and maybe Harper if they want him, they need a versatile PF...someone who can rebound and take some pressure off of Wemby, back Wemby up if he misses games. It's what they lack.

Jaylen isn't a fit for what they need & then the situation regarding his knee creates uncertainty.

[Hal14]

It's foolish to reject out of hand trading Brown for young talent and picks. Would you swap him for Flagg? Of course, but Dallas aren't moving that pick, so what needs to get added to the next guy for you to bite? The question is what is the threshold you have to hit for it to start making sense.

There isn't even that big of a gap imo between Flagg and Harper.

Harper can't shoot

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

This article I did outlines taller ball handler prospects and what their shooting numbers typically look like - Harper is above average:

https://the-center-hub.com/2025/05/03/deep-dive-jumbo-initiators-as-shooters/

Also, this Youtuber breaks down the shot mechanics for the top prospects..he actually thinks Harper has better shot mechanics than Flagg.

If you go here, you can find the scouting vid for both Harper and Flagg where he breaks down their shots:

https://www.youtube.com/@_AVC_

I'd also add that there's more to basketball than shooting. No other underclassman guard prospect I'm aware of in the past 15 years has had an Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins as high as Harper had this season, while also having a respectable FG% at the rim. If we expand it to include forwards, the only other guy in the conversation is Zion. Point is, Harper is a historically good guard prospect in terms of driving the basketball, creating his shot, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim so I wouldn't worry about the shooting.

Plus, it makes sense that if a guy is THIS good at ball handling, driving, finishing, has a bag as a deep as any prospect in the past 15 ish years, it makes sense that if that stuff is so advanced as a freshman (not too mention good playmaking and positional size, solid defense) that the shooting development will come later.

[klemen44]

Nothing dramatic will happen, there is no need for that.

Pg: Prichard (is more than ready to start, 7 million contact only)
Sg: White
Sf: Brown
Pf:?
C: Porzingis (if you can find a C via Jru trade or Porzingis trade you do it if not you keep him)

Houser (trade because of luxury tax reasons)

Off the bench you give minutes to Scheierman and Walsh and see if they produce.

Biston imo will still be in 5-8 spot going into playoffs next season wuthout Tatum.

[Celts17Pride]

There isn't even that big of a gap imo between Flagg and Harper.

Harper can't shoot

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

This article I did outlines taller ball handler prospects and what their shooting numbers typically look like - Harper is above average:

https://the-center-hub.com/2025/05/03/deep-dive-jumbo-initiators-as-shooters/

Also, this Youtuber breaks down the shot mechanics for the top prospects..he actually thinks Harper has better shot mechanics than Flagg.

If you go here, you can find the scouting vid for both Harper and Flagg where he breaks down their shots:

https://www.youtube.com/@_AVC_

I'd also add that there's more to basketball than shooting. No other underclassman guard prospect I'm aware of in the past 15 years has had an Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins as high as Harper had this season, while also having a respectable FG% at the rim. If we expand it to include forwards, the only other guy in the conversation is Zion. Point is, Harper is a historically good guard prospect in terms of driving the basketball, creating his shot, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim so I wouldn't worry about the shooting.

Plus, it makes sense that if a guy is THIS good at ball handling, driving, finishing, has a bag as a deep as any prospect in the past 15 ish years, it makes sense that if that stuff is so advanced as a freshman (not too mention good playmaking and positional size, solid defense) that the shooting development will come later.

I'd be willing to bet if the Celtics had the #2 pick they wouldn't draft Harper, probably someone like Tre Johnson.

[Celts17Pride]

There isn't even that big of a gap imo between Flagg and Harper.

Harper can't shoot

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

and it took 7 years.........

[cl2117]

It's foolish to reject out of hand trading Brown for young talent and picks. Would you swap him for Flagg? Of course, but Dallas aren't moving that pick, so what needs to get added to the next guy for you to bite? The question is what is the threshold you have to hit for it to start making sense.

If you can get #2, Vassell and some other picks for JB you have to consider it if there is a guy in that 2-4 big board group that you love.

Draft picks are like cars in that as soon as you drive them off the lot they lose value, but unlike cars if they perform well they go up in value too (look at Stephon Castle). We're not married to the guy we pick, you can turn around at swap them plus Vassell for a disgruntled star next summer and keep whatever change is leftover from what SAS gave us (now also probably with a higher lottery pick of our own).

I'm not writing off next year, but let's be real it's unlikely to be the Cinderella story we'd need it to be for it to bear fruit. So with that in context taking a year to develop a blue chip prospect either to trade or to keep isn't a bad idea especially given the cap considerations. It all comes down to the package we get in return.

It's just that all the slivers of reporting around a possible JB trade have been really clear, they would expect a mother lode. Vassell on his contract is a net neutral and not a guy they would want imo so they need an absolute kings ransom back and outside of Flagg it's not at all clear this draft has one.

And like I said above if the draft pick doesn't look amazing out of the gate they downgraded big time on court and took themselves out of the running next year when Jokic may change teams so it's option maybe D eg if Jaylen's knee is hamburger or something or the owner goes Major League on them.

In terms of a king's ransom return it's not Flagg or bust. You can get #2++ and still have the value work out at a level where it's worthwhile moving Jaylen.

The Spurs have a ton of assets:
#2,
#14
2026 swap w/ ATL
2027 ATL unprotected 1st
BOS 2028 1st unprotected
Best 2030 first from DAL/MIN
2031 swap w/ SAC
All their own 1sts apart from 2027

You start stacking some of those and the scales tip at a certain stage even if Vassell is neutral at best.

It's absolutely a roll of the dice but most trades are. You could very easily also be sitting there next summer with the rookie of the year and a top 10 pick of our own in pole position to be trying to trade for a Jokic/Giannis type disgruntled star (moreso than you would be with JB if he has a slow year coming back from the knee on his contract).

I agree it's not plan A, but I don't see what it's not an option if some team truly does come with a godfather-esque offer. I don't think that happens, but I'm listening intently to any offers in the right ballpark.

[phincsfan]

Harper can't shoot

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

This article I did outlines taller ball handler prospects and what their shooting numbers typically look like - Harper is above average:

https://the-center-hub.com/2025/05/03/deep-dive-jumbo-initiators-as-shooters/

Also, this Youtuber breaks down the shot mechanics for the top prospects..he actually thinks Harper has better shot mechanics than Flagg.

If you go here, you can find the scouting vid for both Harper and Flagg where he breaks down their shots:

https://www.youtube.com/@_AVC_

I'd also add that there's more to basketball than shooting. No other underclassman guard prospect I'm aware of in the past 15 years has had an Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins as high as Harper had this season, while also having a respectable FG% at the rim. If we expand it to include forwards, the only other guy in the conversation is Zion. Point is, Harper is a historically good guard prospect in terms of driving the basketball, creating his shot, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim so I wouldn't worry about the shooting.

Plus, it makes sense that if a guy is THIS good at ball handling, driving, finishing, has a bag as a deep as any prospect in the past 15 ish years, it makes sense that if that stuff is so advanced as a freshman (not too mention good playmaking and positional size, solid defense) that the shooting development will come later.

I'd be willing to bet if the Celtics had the #2 pick they wouldn't draft Harper, probably someone like Tre Johnson.

I would replace "probably" with definitely. Johnson's gonna be good.

I'm not sold on Harper or Bailey. Rutgers wasn't good this season. Two top 5 picks and they couldn't get their team over .500.

[Hal14]

Harper can't shoot

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

This article I did outlines taller ball handler prospects and what their shooting numbers typically look like - Harper is above average:

https://the-center-hub.com/2025/05/03/deep-dive-jumbo-initiators-as-shooters/

Also, this Youtuber breaks down the shot mechanics for the top prospects..he actually thinks Harper has better shot mechanics than Flagg.

If you go here, you can find the scouting vid for both Harper and Flagg where he breaks down their shots:

https://www.youtube.com/@_AVC_

I'd also add that there's more to basketball than shooting. No other underclassman guard prospect I'm aware of in the past 15 years has had an Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins as high as Harper had this season, while also having a respectable FG% at the rim. If we expand it to include forwards, the only other guy in the conversation is Zion. Point is, Harper is a historically good guard prospect in terms of driving the basketball, creating his shot, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim so I wouldn't worry about the shooting.

Plus, it makes sense that if a guy is THIS good at ball handling, driving, finishing, has a bag as a deep as any prospect in the past 15 ish years, it makes sense that if that stuff is so advanced as a freshman (not too mention good playmaking and positional size, solid defense) that the shooting development will come later.

I'd be willing to bet if the Celtics had the #2 pick they wouldn't draft Harper, probably someone like Tre Johnson.

That be a mistake imo. Tre is a far worse prospect. I don't even know if I would take him in the top 10.

[Hal14]

That's a very misguided take imo.

He's a better shooter than JB was in college..comparable to the shooter Tatum (and SGA and Luka) was as a prospect.

33% from 3, 75% FT are numbers that are above average for a freshman, especially one who had such high usage (easier to have good shooting percentages if your usage is lower..the higher the usage, the harder it is to have high shooting percentages).

This article I did outlines taller ball handler prospects and what their shooting numbers typically look like - Harper is above average:

https://the-center-hub.com/2025/05/03/deep-dive-jumbo-initiators-as-shooters/

Also, this Youtuber breaks down the shot mechanics for the top prospects..he actually thinks Harper has better shot mechanics than Flagg.

If you go here, you can find the scouting vid for both Harper and Flagg where he breaks down their shots:

https://www.youtube.com/@_AVC_

I'd also add that there's more to basketball than shooting. No other underclassman guard prospect I'm aware of in the past 15 years has had an Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins as high as Harper had this season, while also having a respectable FG% at the rim. If we expand it to include forwards, the only other guy in the conversation is Zion. Point is, Harper is a historically good guard prospect in terms of driving the basketball, creating his shot, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim so I wouldn't worry about the shooting.

Plus, it makes sense that if a guy is THIS good at ball handling, driving, finishing, has a bag as a deep as any prospect in the past 15 ish years, it makes sense that if that stuff is so advanced as a freshman (not too mention good playmaking and positional size, solid defense) that the shooting development will come later.

I'd be willing to bet if the Celtics had the #2 pick they wouldn't draft Harper, probably someone like Tre Johnson.

I would replace "probably" with definitely. Johnson's gonna be good.

I'm not sold on Harper or Bailey. Rutgers wasn't good this season. Two top 5 picks and they couldn't get their team over .500.

I posted this a couple weeks ago in the previous trade thread when someone else made this same point so I'll post here as a spoiler:

Spoiler:

That's not their fault:

-They were freshmen. The teams in college basketball that win lots of games and make deep tourney runs are veteran teams with seniors, juniors..hell, with COVID there's actually lots of 24 and even 25 year old dudes playing on some of the top college basketball teams. Auburn had a 25 year old (Chad Baker Mazara) who's going to be playing college basketball AGAIN next year, lol. Auburn's average age of their starters was like 23. Kentucky had a bunch of 23 year olds. Duke had a few freshmen but balanced that out nicely with good older vets like Gillis, James, Brown and Proctor.

Florida had a bunch of older guys.

Who did Rutgers have for good vets? Nobody. Not only were Harper and Ace freshmen but they were young freshmen, 2 of the youngest freshmen in college basketball..Ace is still only 18 and Harper was 18 for pretty much the whole season

-Plus they started 2 other freshmen in addition to Ace and Harper

-The rest of the team outside of Ace and Harper was basically America East talent, at best.

-Harper had knee surgery over the summer before last season..he also sprained his ankle mid-season and had the flu so bad that he lost 15 lbs in January. Ace had an injury early in the season and an illness mid-season

-Jaylen Brown, Lamelo Ball, Ant Edwards..their teams in their pre-draft season were bad too..how good your team is when you're an 18 yr old pre-NBA kid doesn't mean much. Otherwise Walter Clayton would be a top 3 pick, smh

-I also think Ace is a bit overrated. While he's projected to be the 3rd pick, he's around like the 7-11 range on my personal big board.

[phincsfan]

I'd be willing to bet if the Celtics had the #2 pick they wouldn't draft Harper, probably someone like Tre Johnson.

I would replace "probably" with definitely. Johnson's gonna be good.

I'm not sold on Harper or Bailey. Rutgers wasn't good this season. Two top 5 picks and they couldn't get their team over .500.

I posted this a couple weeks ago in the previous trade thread when someone else made this same point so I'll post here as a spoiler:

Spoiler:

That's not their fault:

-They were freshmen. The teams in college basketball that win lots of games and make deep tourney runs are veteran teams with seniors, juniors..hell, with COVID there's actually lots of 24 and even 25 year old dudes playing on some of the top college basketball teams. Auburn had a 25 year old (Chad Baker Mazara) who's going to be playing college basketball AGAIN next year, lol. Auburn's average age of their starters was like 23. Kentucky had a bunch of 23 year olds. Duke had a few freshmen but balanced that out nicely with good older vets like Gillis, James, Brown and Proctor.

Florida had a bunch of older guys.

Who did Rutgers have for good vets? Nobody. Not only were Harper and Ace freshmen but they were young freshmen, 2 of the youngest freshmen in college basketball..Ace is still only 18 and Harper was 18 for pretty much the whole season

-Plus they started 2 other freshmen in addition to Ace and Harper

-The rest of the team outside of Ace and Harper was basically America East talent, at best.

-Harper had knee surgery over the summer before last season..he also sprained his ankle mid-season and had the flu so bad that he lost 15 lbs in January. Ace had an injury early in the season and an illness mid-season

-Jaylen Brown, Lamelo Ball, Ant Edwards..their teams in their pre-draft season were bad too..how good your team is when you're an 18 yr old pre-NBA kid doesn't mean much. Otherwise Walter Clayton would be a top 3 pick, smh

-I also think Ace is a bit overrated. While he's projected to be the 3rd pick, he's around like the 7-11 range on my personal big board.

Two top 5 picks who's team couldn't get above .500? That may be a first. I'm busy today, but I'm gonna check out previous draft classes.

[165bows]

It's foolish to reject out of hand trading Brown for young talent and picks. Would you swap him for Flagg? Of course, but Dallas aren't moving that pick, so what needs to get added to the next guy for you to bite? The question is what is the threshold you have to hit for it to start making sense.

If you can get #2, Vassell and some other picks for JB you have to consider it if there is a guy in that 2-4 big board group that you love.

Draft picks are like cars in that as soon as you drive them off the lot they lose value, but unlike cars if they perform well they go up in value too (look at Stephon Castle). We're not married to the guy we pick, you can turn around at swap them plus Vassell for a disgruntled star next summer and keep whatever change is leftover from what SAS gave us (now also probably with a higher lottery pick of our own).

I'm not writing off next year, but let's be real it's unlikely to be the Cinderella story we'd need it to be for it to bear fruit. So with that in context taking a year to develop a blue chip prospect either to trade or to keep isn't a bad idea especially given the cap considerations. It all comes down to the package we get in return.

It's just that all the slivers of reporting around a possible JB trade have been really clear, they would expect a mother lode. Vassell on his contract is a net neutral and not a guy they would want imo so they need an absolute kings ransom back and outside of Flagg it's not at all clear this draft has one.

And like I said above if the draft pick doesn't look amazing out of the gate they downgraded big time on court and took themselves out of the running next year when Jokic may change teams so it's option maybe D eg if Jaylen's knee is hamburger or something or the owner goes Major League on them.

In terms of a king's ransom return it's not Flagg or bust. You can get #2++ and still have the value work out at a level where it's worthwhile moving Jaylen.

The Spurs have a ton of assets:
#2,
#14
2026 swap w/ ATL
2027 ATL unprotected 1st
BOS 2028 1st unprotected
Best 2030 first from DAL/MIN
2031 swap w/ SAC
All their own 1sts apart from 2027

You start stacking some of those and the scales tip at a certain stage even if Vassell is neutral at best.

It's absolutely a roll of the dice but most trades are. You could very easily also be sitting there next summer with the rookie of the year and a top 10 pick of our own in pole position to be trying to trade for a Jokic/Giannis type disgruntled star (moreso than you would be with JB if he has a slow year coming back from the knee on his contract).

I agree it's not plan A, but I don't see what it's not an option if some team truly does come with a godfather-esque offer. I don't think that happens, but I'm listening intently to any offers in the right ballpark.

No one is outplaying Cooper Flagg by a big enough margin to win ROY unless he pulls a Blake Griffin lol. Pretty much his to lose at this point.

[brackdan70]

Delusional.

Inviato dal mio CPH2399 utilizzando Tapatalk

It’s delusional to believe the Cs are not trading Brown? How so?

It's delusional to underestimate Jaylen all the time.

Inviato dal mio CPH2399 utilizzando Tapatalk

I love Jaylen. I am not underestimating him. I am saying the Celtics are very unlikely to trade him.
Also saying the Spurs are unlikely to include the 2nd pick in a package. Both can be true.

[SparringPartner]

Tatum is not spending his next 4 years of his contract playing for a Hawks/Kings type team. If Brown is traded it will be for another all-star. By year 3 you will be hearing rumblings of Tatum wanting out just like Giannis right now.

This forum is so ridiculous, just can't wait for the Celtics to be mediocre again so they can be happy.

With all due respect, who gives a crap what Tatum wants. He’s under contract for multiple years making $50M+. Same goes for Giannis and the Bucks.

[SparringPartner]

Tatum is not spending his next 4 years of his contract playing for a Hawks/Kings type team.

Tatum is under contract. If the C’s trade everyone besides Tatum and it backfires that’s on Steven’s. You either trust Steven’s or don’t, but him making moves to get better isn’t going to stop because he’s worried about Tatum’s feelings.

[Hal14]

I would replace "probably" with definitely. Johnson's gonna be good.

I'm not sold on Harper or Bailey. Rutgers wasn't good this season. Two top 5 picks and they couldn't get their team over .500.

I posted this a couple weeks ago in the previous trade thread when someone else made this same point so I'll post here as a spoiler:

Spoiler:

That's not their fault:

-They were freshmen. The teams in college basketball that win lots of games and make deep tourney runs are veteran teams with seniors, juniors..hell, with COVID there's actually lots of 24 and even 25 year old dudes playing on some of the top college basketball teams. Auburn had a 25 year old (Chad Baker Mazara) who's going to be playing college basketball AGAIN next year, lol. Auburn's average age of their starters was like 23. Kentucky had a bunch of 23 year olds. Duke had a few freshmen but balanced that out nicely with good older vets like Gillis, James, Brown and Proctor.

Florida had a bunch of older guys.

Who did Rutgers have for good vets? Nobody. Not only were Harper and Ace freshmen but they were young freshmen, 2 of the youngest freshmen in college basketball..Ace is still only 18 and Harper was 18 for pretty much the whole season

-Plus they started 2 other freshmen in addition to Ace and Harper

-The rest of the team outside of Ace and Harper was basically America East talent, at best.

-Harper had knee surgery over the summer before last season..he also sprained his ankle mid-season and had the flu so bad that he lost 15 lbs in January. Ace had an injury early in the season and an illness mid-season

-Jaylen Brown, Lamelo Ball, Ant Edwards..their teams in their pre-draft season were bad too..how good your team is when you're an 18 yr old pre-NBA kid doesn't mean much. Otherwise Walter Clayton would be a top 3 pick, smh

-I also think Ace is a bit overrated. While he's projected to be the 3rd pick, he's around like the 7-11 range on my personal big board.

Two top 5 picks who's team couldn't get above .500? That may be a first. I'm busy today, but I'm gonna check out previous draft classes.

So you didn't read anything I posted in the spoiler section?

They probably had the worst teammates of any high major team in the past 20 years. Poor coaching too..

That's a really weak argument..nobody with credibility makes that argument because people with credibility know the context I just mentioned and have Harper at 2 and Bailey in the 3-8 range.

[SparringPartner]

Magic Out: Anthony Black, Jett Howard
Magic In: Sam Hauser, #32

Solid trade.
Not sure the Magic are ready to trade Black

[fallguy]

If you trade Jaylen you have to return someone who can be a top-3 guy on a title team by 26-27. Maybe that's Flagg? No idea. I don't watch the college game at all. But my guess is there is no Magic or Larry here who can hit the ground crushing it. If you're advocating for JB for #2, you HAVE to project that player to be a star out of the gate.

[SparringPartner]

Brad thankfully isn’t stupid enough to trade Jaylen away for a pick that may one day be as good as him.

This current roster is flawed. To many players who settle. Lack of killer instinct.
Huge changes are needed. Betting everything on whether KP can stay healthy is a joke.
Oh, and this team costs 1/2 a bill, smh