2025 Draft prospects - thread 3

[Infinity2152]

Player archetype is a thing I try to think about during the draft

I at times have been tantalized by the athleticism of Joan Beringer, but then think to myself, well we can just sign (and for cheap) a Kai Jones or Jaxson Hayes if we want an uber athletic big man who's still a project.


I have similar thoughts about CMB - he's an undersized defender. We can just sign Torrey Craig or Ziaire Williams or Bruce Brown or Matisse Thybulle (if he opts out) or Javonte Green.

The players in these archetypes are readily available.

Now what we can't go sign (due to financial reasons and scarcity in availability) are players like:

Kasparas Jakucionis
Nique Clifford
Egor Demin
Ace Bailey
Kon Knueppel
Ben Saraf
Will Reilly
Ryan Kalkbrenner


There's player potential and then there's the potential/impact of different player types

It's just hard for me to get excited about a player who's potential role can be filled by a vet min player

CMB averaged 17pts/gm. He's a more aggressive scorer than Craig, Williams, Brown, Thybulle, Green. They're also all like 6'5" and shorter. 6'7, 6'8 defenders with 7' ft wingspans that are also effective scorers are much harder to find. Not likely Bailey or Knueppel fall to 12. We already have a KJ. Denim's similar to Giddey as well. Knueppel's similar to Huerter. This goes back to defense being considered less important than offense. There are like 3-4 center's putting up Vuc's offensive and rebounding numbers, but we're ready to move him and start Gafford or Jalen Smith. You want to do the reverse in the draft it seems, draft a moderate offensive prospect over one of the best defensive prospects.

Hoping we get another late draft pick, some of those guys you chose would be available later.

[DuckIII]

Player archetype is a thing I try to think about during the draft

I at times have been tantalized by the athleticism of Joan Beringer, but then think to myself, well we can just sign (and for cheap) a Kai Jones or Jaxson Hayes if we want an uber athletic big man who's still a project.


I have similar thoughts about CMB - he's an undersized defender. We can just sign Torrey Craig or Ziaire Williams or Bruce Brown or Matisse Thybulle (if he opts out) or Javonte Green.

I'm begging people to stop pretending that CMB is an one dimensional defender with little to no value on offense. Javonte Green?

Due the strategic shift by NBA teams to dramatically emphasize the 3 ball based on analytics, some fans now more or less equate having a 3 ball with "offense." Don't have a 3? Not a good offensive player. Which is silly. Look how many people didn't believe in Castle last year due to his 3. To me he was the clear #1 prospect in a poor draft that fell to 4 where the best FO in the NBA could snatch him up. If he had a 3 (at age 18), he'd have gone #1 with a bullet.

To be clear, while CMB's defense is his "elite" trait, a very big part of the reason I have him ranked so highly is because of his over-all offensive package.

[2weekswithpay]

Player archetype is a thing I try to think about during the draft

I at times have been tantalized by the athleticism of Joan Beringer, but then think to myself, well we can just sign (and for cheap) a Kai Jones or Jaxson Hayes if we want an uber athletic big man who's still a project.


I have similar thoughts about CMB - he's an undersized defender. We can just sign Torrey Craig or Ziaire Williams or Bruce Brown or Matisse Thybulle (if he opts out) or Javonte Green.

The players in these archetypes are readily available.

Now what we can't go sign (due to financial reasons and scarcity in availability) are players like:

Kasparas Jakucionis
Nique Clifford
Egor Demin
Ace Bailey
Kon Knueppel
Ben Saraf
Will Reilly
Ryan Kalkbrenner


There's player potential and then there's the potential/impact of different player types

It's just hard for me to get excited about a player who's potential role can be filled by a vet min player

CMB averaged 17pts/gm. He's a more aggressive scorer than Craig, Williams, Brown, Thybulle, Green. They're also all like 6'5" and shorter. 6'7, 6'8 defenders with 7' ft wingspans that are also effective scorers are much harder to find. Not likely Bailey or Knueppel fall to 12. We already have a KJ. Denim's similar to Giddey as well. Knueppel's similar to Huerter. This goes back to defense being considered less important than offense. There are like 3-4 center's putting up Vuc's offensive and rebounding numbers, but we're ready to move him and start Gafford or Jalen Smith. You want to do the reverse in the draft it seems, draft a moderate offensive prospect over one of the best defensive prospects.

Hoping we get another late draft pick, some of those guys you chose would be available later.

How do you utilize CMB without him messing up the offense? Assuming you aren't playing him at center.

[HomoSapien]

Saying don't draft CMB because we can just sign Torey Craig is equivalent to me saying don't draft KJ because we can just sign Gary Harris. Like what?

[Infinity2152]

Teams are starting to pay some attention to defense as well. Caruso just got $20 mill/yr as a 29 yr old, oft injured 3 and D player. Kings have a guard, Keon Ellis, 25, about to hit FA. Hollinger is predicting the Kings offer him 4yrs/$85 mill to extend him. He averaged 8 pts, 3 rbs, 1.5 assists, 43% from three last year. 13.5 PER, but 2.0 BPM.

[Jcool0]

No Ceilings mock had us trading with OKC from 12 to 15 and 24 and taking Derik Queen and Rasheer Fleming. I cannot tell you how elated I would be.

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

[DuckIII]

No Ceilings mock had us trading with OKC from 12 to 15 and 24 and taking Derik Queen and Rasheer Fleming. I cannot tell you how elated I would be.

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

I’ve been strongly against trading down. The reason for that is because I have a list of 13 guys followed by a gap.

But with how crazy all the mocks and rumors are, 15 is not too much of a fall if you are adding 24 in what I consider to be a historically deep first round. I keep seeing guys in my top 13 available at 15. But again those are just mocks.

So I still don’t want to do it, but 15 and 24 doesn’t trigger my gag reflex.

[Infinity2152]

We have 7 expiring contracts, all our picks and the Portland pick. There are multiple teams with multiple picks that are willing to trade first rounders. Would be highly disappointed if we can't get another first without trading down. AKME just got extended, phones should be burning up making too many phone calls right now.

[Jcool0]

No Ceilings mock had us trading with OKC from 12 to 15 and 24 and taking Derik Queen and Rasheer Fleming. I cannot tell you how elated I would be.

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

I’ve been strongly against trading down. The reason for that is because I have a list of 13 guys followed by a gap.

But with how crazy all the mocks and rumors are, 15 is not too much of a fall if you are adding 24 in what I consider to be a historically deep first round. I keep seeing guys in my top 13 available at 15. But again those are just mocks.

So I still don’t want to do it, but 15 and 24 doesn’t trigger my gag reflex.

I just don't see it as deep. I've said the Bulls could easily get screwed at 12 if the first 11 break the right way. How many guys taken 20 or later have been significant contributors? This isn't the NFL where you find starters in rounds 1-4. Talent drops off by 15.

[sco]

No Ceilings mock had us trading with OKC from 12 to 15 and 24 and taking Derik Queen and Rasheer Fleming. I cannot tell you how elated I would be.

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

I’ve been strongly against trading down. The reason for that is because I have a list of 13 guys followed by a gap.

But with how crazy all the mocks and rumors are, 15 is not too much of a fall if you are adding 24 in what I consider to be a historically deep first round. I keep seeing guys in my top 13 available at 15. But again those are just mocks.

So I still don’t want to do it, but 15 and 24 doesn’t trigger my gag reflex.

I'd be all over it in a vacuum. If someone crazy fell to 12, I could change my mind. I see very little fall-off from 12 to 24 in terms of the guys I'd be interested in. Also, I'm looking for "stupidity insurance"...maybe we get saved from drafting Queen or Demin at 12. For me, this draft is shaping up as the "just don't draft Queen or Demin" draft. There are few guys with so many red flags that I can recall being rumored to us.

[LateNight]

A lot of people linking Sorber to the Bulls and the defense is nice, but on offense... Are we just expecting like a weaker version of Drum? He can’t stretch the floor, seems like he’d get bullied on the interior, and probably won’t get the positioning for all those crafty rebounds

[Jcool0]

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

I’ve been strongly against trading down. The reason for that is because I have a list of 13 guys followed by a gap.

But with how crazy all the mocks and rumors are, 15 is not too much of a fall if you are adding 24 in what I consider to be a historically deep first round. I keep seeing guys in my top 13 available at 15. But again those are just mocks.

So I still don’t want to do it, but 15 and 24 doesn’t trigger my gag reflex.

I'd be all over it in a vacuum. If someone crazy fell to 12, I could change my mind. I see very little fall-off from 12 to 24 in terms of the guys I'd be interested in. Also, I'm looking for "stupidity insurance"...maybe we get saved from drafting Queen or Demin at 12. For me, this draft is shaping up as the "just don't draft Queen or Demin" draft. There are few guys with so many red flags that I can recall being rumored to us.

You might be saved for those two but that doesn't mean 15 will work out.

[Guru]

Player archetype is a thing I try to think about during the draft

I at times have been tantalized by the athleticism of Joan Beringer, but then think to myself, well we can just sign (and for cheap) a Kai Jones or Jaxson Hayes if we want an uber athletic big man who's still a project.


I have similar thoughts about CMB - he's an undersized defender. We can just sign Torrey Craig or Ziaire Williams or Bruce Brown or Matisse Thybulle (if he opts out) or Javonte Green.

The players in these archetypes are readily available.

Now what we can't go sign (due to financial reasons and scarcity in availability) are players like:

Kasparas Jakucionis
Nique Clifford
Egor Demin
Ace Bailey
Kon Knueppel
Ben Saraf
Will Reilly
Ryan Kalkbrenner


There's player potential and then there's the potential/impact of different player types

It's just hard for me to get excited about a player who's potential role can be filled by a vet min player

CMB averaged 17pts/gm. He's a more aggressive scorer than Craig, Williams, Brown, Thybulle, Green. They're also all like 6'5" and shorter. 6'7, 6'8 defenders with 7' ft wingspans that are also effective scorers are much harder to find. Not likely Bailey or Knueppel fall to 12. We already have a KJ. Denim's similar to Giddey as well. Knueppel's similar to Huerter. This goes back to defense being considered less important than offense. There are like 3-4 center's putting up Vuc's offensive and rebounding numbers, but we're ready to move him and start Gafford or Jalen Smith. You want to do the reverse in the draft it seems, draft a moderate offensive prospect over one of the best defensive prospects.

Hoping we get another late draft pick, some of those guys you chose would be available later.

How do you utilize CMB without him messing up the offense? Assuming you aren't playing him at center.

He can run and is a great passer

[sco]

I’ve been strongly against trading down. The reason for that is because I have a list of 13 guys followed by a gap.

But with how crazy all the mocks and rumors are, 15 is not too much of a fall if you are adding 24 in what I consider to be a historically deep first round. I keep seeing guys in my top 13 available at 15. But again those are just mocks.

So I still don’t want to do it, but 15 and 24 doesn’t trigger my gag reflex.

I'd be all over it in a vacuum. If someone crazy fell to 12, I could change my mind. I see very little fall-off from 12 to 24 in terms of the guys I'd be interested in. Also, I'm looking for "stupidity insurance"...maybe we get saved from drafting Queen or Demin at 12. For me, this draft is shaping up as the "just don't draft Queen or Demin" draft. There are few guys with so many red flags that I can recall being rumored to us.

You might be saved for those two but that doesn't mean 15 will work out.

Sure, but I don't see a meaningful risk change from 12 in terms of my guess there. #24 may end up being the better player than #15.

[Chi town]

Think if you comp any player to any other player other than centers in the NBA and the main point of contention is "can't shoot threes", it's going to be a high failure rate. He's good at basically everything thing else on both sides of the ball. A lot of Draymond's game is high effort and IQ, those are winning talents, better than good shooting. And usually leads to improved shooting, Draymond and Jimmy Butler are similar types. They're not great shooters, but they're passable now.

Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Scottie Barnes, and Jalen Johnson. All undersized 4s, who weren't strong three-point shooters entering the league, who are valuable in the NBA. All of them, except really Barnes, have improved their shot.

If CMB is merely an okay three-point shooter at any point in his career, he's going to be an elite two-way PF.

Since we are still on CMB comps, if we have to pick one I think you identified the right guy in there: Julius Randle. But with zero 3 ball and significantly better defense.

He’s a better hub playmaker than Randle, not as good as a scorer or shooter, and an elite defender.

The issue with CMB is spacing on offense. He has to play with 3+ shooters and another average shooter at all times. Which means you have to have 5 who can shoot like Jalen Smith or he has to play a lot at the 5. I think Billy would play him half his mins at the 5.

Other issue is roster construction. Billy plays Giddey with two guards and Buz at the 4. Rarely plays Pat at the 3. Rarely plays Pat and Buz together. This means CMB’s mins would have to come almost exclusively at the 5 or Pat or Buz would have to play a lot more of the 3. I’d like to see a Giddey Coby Pat Buz CMB lineup but I don’t think Billy would play it.

Same thing could be said for Noa who I think will eventually get half his mins at the 5. He can play the 3 though where CMB can’t.

[Jcool0]

I'd be all over it in a vacuum. If someone crazy fell to 12, I could change my mind. I see very little fall-off from 12 to 24 in terms of the guys I'd be interested in. Also, I'm looking for "stupidity insurance"...maybe we get saved from drafting Queen or Demin at 12. For me, this draft is shaping up as the "just don't draft Queen or Demin" draft. There are few guys with so many red flags that I can recall being rumored to us.

You might be saved for those two but that doesn't mean 15 will work out.

Sure, but I don't see a meaningful risk change from 12 in terms of my guess there. #24 may end up being the better player than #15.

When does that ever happen?

[Chi town]

I'd be all over it in a vacuum. If someone crazy fell to 12, I could change my mind. I see very little fall-off from 12 to 24 in terms of the guys I'd be interested in. Also, I'm looking for "stupidity insurance"...maybe we get saved from drafting Queen or Demin at 12. For me, this draft is shaping up as the "just don't draft Queen or Demin" draft. There are few guys with so many red flags that I can recall being rumored to us.

You might be saved for those two but that doesn't mean 15 will work out.

Sure, but I don't see a meaningful risk change from 12 in terms of my guess there. #24 may end up being the better player than #15.

If KJ and Noa are off the board I’m all for trading back to 15 and 24. I’d think OKC would NOT do that trade though.

If so I’d take Coward or CMB at 15 and Beringer Saraf or Riley at 24.

[sco]

You might be saved for those two but that doesn't mean 15 will work out.

Sure, but I don't see a meaningful risk change from 12 in terms of my guess there. #24 may end up being the better player than #15.

When does that ever happen?

IIRC we drafted JJ at 16 and Taj at 26.

[Jcool0]

Sure, but I don't see a meaningful risk change from 12 in terms of my guess there. #24 may end up being the better player than #15.

When does that ever happen?

IIRC we drafted JJ at 16 and Taj at 26.

So because it happened n 2009 we can expect it again? You shouldn't be planing for the exception to the rule. You should be planing on the likely outcome. In the NBA taking someone late in round one usually means fringe NBA player. Not solid contributing starter.

[sco]

When does that ever happen?

IIRC we drafted JJ at 16 and Taj at 26.

So because it happened n 2009 we can expect it again?

I believe I used the word "may", and like I said, I see less drop off from 12-24 in terms of risk/return than I can remember in recent years.