2025 Draft prospects - thread 3

[jump]

A lot of people linking Sorber to the Bulls and the defense is nice, but on offense... Are we just expecting like a weaker version of Drum? He can’t stretch the floor, seems like he’d get bullied on the interior, and probably won’t get the positioning for all those crafty rebounds

Sorber does not get bullied in the interior. He's a beast at 6'10", 262 with 7'6" wingspan. He does the bullying, plus he is a solid rim protector, passer, with a good shooting touch. He can become a very good C for the next decade.

[sco]

A lot of people linking Sorber to the Bulls and the defense is nice, but on offense... Are we just expecting like a weaker version of Drum? He can’t stretch the floor, seems like he’d get bullied on the interior, and probably won’t get the positioning for all those crafty rebounds

Sorber does not get bullied in the interior. He's a beast at 6'10", 262 with 7'6" wingspan. He does the bullying, plus he is a solid rim protector, passer, with a good shooting touch. He can become a very good C for the next decade.

He gives me Duran vibes...good and bad.

[Jcool0]

IIRC we drafted JJ at 16 and Taj at 26.

So because it happened n 2009 we can expect it again?

I believe I used the word "may", and like I said, I see less drop off from 12-24 in terms of risk/return than I can remember in recent years.

I would love the NBA draft to be more like the NFL were with pick #30 you can find an all pro player. But history shows after the lottery its hard to find contributing level players. Bulls had the 18th pick a few years ago and took Dalen Terry passing on Christian Braun (#21) and Walker Kessler (#22).

[2weekswithpay]

CMB averaged 17pts/gm. He's a more aggressive scorer than Craig, Williams, Brown, Thybulle, Green. They're also all like 6'5" and shorter. 6'7, 6'8 defenders with 7' ft wingspans that are also effective scorers are much harder to find. Not likely Bailey or Knueppel fall to 12. We already have a KJ. Denim's similar to Giddey as well. Knueppel's similar to Huerter. This goes back to defense being considered less important than offense. There are like 3-4 center's putting up Vuc's offensive and rebounding numbers, but we're ready to move him and start Gafford or Jalen Smith. You want to do the reverse in the draft it seems, draft a moderate offensive prospect over one of the best defensive prospects.

Hoping we get another late draft pick, some of those guys you chose would be available later.

How do you utilize CMB without him messing up the offense? Assuming you aren't playing him at center.

He can run and is a great passer

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

Transition offense accounts for only a portion of scoring attempts. The Bulls ran more than anyone, and only 24.3% of our shot attempts were in transition.

Passing is also great, but you still need to be able to score to threaten defenses.

Josh Hart is good at both, and he was a complete liability in the halfcourt for the Knicks.

[jnrjr79]

No Ceilings mock had us trading with OKC from 12 to 15 and 24 and taking Derik Queen and Rasheer Fleming. I cannot tell you how elated I would be.

I would bet the odds of the 12 hitting are way higher then 15 and 24.

We (Doug and I, IIRC) actually posted the hit rate stats by draft slot in one of these threads some months ago. 12 and 15, to my recollection, wouldn’t be wildly different, but as you expect, the hit rate goes down the further down the draft board you go. That said, the odds that *one* of 15 and 24 hit likely exceeds the odds of a single #12 pick hitting.

[sco]

How do you utilize CMB without him messing up the offense? Assuming you aren't playing him at center.

He can run and is a great passer

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

Transition offense accounts for only a portion of scoring attempts. The Bulls ran more than anyone, and only 24.3% of our shot attempts were in transition.

Passing is also great, but you still need to be able to score to threaten defenses.

Josh Hart is good at both, and he was a complete liability in the halfcourt for the Knicks.

But that isn't true. Hart is fine in the 1/2 court. We should be thrilled to get a guy who gets you 14/10/6/1.5/.3. He was gimpy toward the end of the season after he got Thibs'd, playing 38MPG.

[Red Larrivee]

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

He's not an offensive liability; he's just not a good three point shooter right now. It'd be like saying Scottie Barnes is an offensive liability. There are more ways to a good NBA offense than making threes, and CMB does those things on top of being a smart, multiple effort defender.

[sco]

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

He's not an offensive liability; he's just not a good three point shooter right now.

He gives me Taj vibes...not a bad thing.

[Red Larrivee]

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

He's not an offensive liability; he's just not a good three point shooter right now.

He gives me Taj vibes...not a bad thing.

If Taj could do what CMB does offensively, he would've been an all-star at some point.

[Guru]

How do you utilize CMB without him messing up the offense? Assuming you aren't playing him at center.

He can run and is a great passer

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

Transition offense accounts for only a portion of scoring attempts. The Bulls ran more than anyone, and only 24.3% of our shot attempts were in transition.

Passing is also great, but you still need to be able to score to threaten defenses.

Josh Hart is good at both, and he was a complete liability in the halfcourt for the Knicks.

What do you want CMB to be able to do that he can't? Do you think shooting is what keeps him from being good on offense?

[drosestruts]

DeRozan is one of the best scorers in the entire NBA despite not having a 3-ball and this board routinely complained about the impact his lack of shooting had on our offense.

But yeah - roll out the red carpet for CMB. A 6'7" center.

[Jcool0]

DeRozan is one of the best scorers in the entire NBA despite not having a 3-ball and this board routinely complained about the impact his lack of shooting had on our offense.

But yeah - roll out the red carpet for CMB. A 6'7" center.

Since when was DD's problem his lack of 3?

[sco]

DeRozan is one of the best scorers in the entire NBA despite not having a 3-ball and this board routinely complained about the impact his lack of shooting had on our offense.

But yeah - roll out the red carpet for CMB. A 6'7" center.

Since when was DD's problem his lack of 3?

Some good points here. IMO if Demar was an elite defender, he'd be elite. That said, CMB can't play the PF position and needs to be your C, I like him a lot less.

[Jcool0]

DeRozan is one of the best scorers in the entire NBA despite not having a 3-ball and this board routinely complained about the impact his lack of shooting had on our offense.

But yeah - roll out the red carpet for CMB. A 6'7" center.

Since when was DD's problem his lack of 3?

Some good points here. IMO if Demar was an elite defender, he'd be elite. That said, CMB can't play the PF position and needs to be your C, I like him a lot less.

Why couldn't he be a PF? He his 6'8", 240lbs. He isn't going to get pushed around.

[kodo]

IIRC we drafted JJ at 16 and Taj at 26.

So because it happened n 2009 we can expect it again?

I believe I used the word "may", and like I said, I see less drop off from 12-24 in terms of risk/return than I can remember in recent years.

Agreed all-star odds are mostly flat starting at 12.
Repost of a chart I put up from another thread:


If you can trade a #12 for multiple 1st rounders, the math makes sense.
However a #12 is going to be there in case someone top 10ish drops, a #16 or #24 won't be able to get a top 10 talent.
It's a gamble either way, you either want two shots at a diamond in the rough or you want to gamble a top 10 guy drops to you.

[WesPeace]

DeRozan is one of the best scorers in the entire NBA despite not having a 3-ball and this board routinely complained about the impact his lack of shooting had on our offense.

But yeah - roll out the red carpet for CMB. A 6'7" center.

Too much ISO midranges were biggest complain and slow tempo of offense, ball pounding for too long before making tough shots, poor defense..

CMB aint no freaking center, he is SF/PF tweener.

[Jcool0]

So because it happened n 2009 we can expect it again?

I believe I used the word "may", and like I said, I see less drop off from 12-24 in terms of risk/return than I can remember in recent years.

Agreed all-star odds are mostly flat starting at 12.
Repost of a chart I put up from another thread:


If you can trade a #12 for multiple 1st rounders, the math makes sense.
However a #12 is going to be there in case someone top 10ish drops, a #16 or #24 won't be able to get a top 10 talent.
It's a gamble either way, you either want two shots at a diamond in the rough or you want to gamble a top 10 guy drops to you.

I see a drop off between 12 and 15.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

Its a bad strategy and I hope he doesn't stick to it. Giddey played better in lineups with one guard. Tre/Ayo, Giddey and Coby starting is coaching malpractice.

I thought Coby and Giddey both were starters this past season...?

IIRC post the Zach trade we inserted Ball into the starting line-up, but then he got hurt and (again IIRC) we inserted Jones into the starting line-up until he got hurt, and then we inserted Huerter.

IMO, we are/were much better with that 5th starter being a POA defensive guard. While I'd be happy if we resigned Jones, I don't see it happening. He was probably the best fit both as a POA defender and backup PG. Barring that, IMO our best move is going with a 50/50 timeshare of Ball/Ayo in that role, and rooting for a return to form from both guys.

Then we just draft BPA and be happy.

I actually think Powell would fit really well in that role since he's a bulldog on defense and he wouldn't need to be the lead ballhandler either. I'm not taking him at 12, but would love to grab him somewhere in the 20's.

[Infinity2152]

Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Scottie Barnes, and Jalen Johnson. All undersized 4s, who weren't strong three-point shooters entering the league, who are valuable in the NBA. All of them, except really Barnes, have improved their shot.

If CMB is merely an okay three-point shooter at any point in his career, he's going to be an elite two-way PF.

Since we are still on CMB comps, if we have to pick one I think you identified the right guy in there: Julius Randle. But with zero 3 ball and significantly better defense.

He’s a better hub playmaker than Randle, not as good as a scorer or shooter, and an elite defender.

The issue with CMB is spacing on offense. He has to play with 3+ shooters and another average shooter at all times. Which means you have to have 5 who can shoot like Jalen Smith or he has to play a lot at the 5. I think Billy would play him half his mins at the 5.

Other issue is roster construction. Billy plays Giddey with two guards and Buz at the 4. Rarely plays Pat at the 3. Rarely plays Pat and Buz together. This means CMB’s mins would have to come almost exclusively at the 5 or Pat or Buz would have to play a lot more of the 3. I’d like to see a Giddey Coby Pat Buz CMB lineup but I don’t think Billy would play it.

Same thing could be said for Noa who I think will eventually get half his mins at the 5. He can play the 3 though where CMB can’t.

Sure he mostly played Buz at PF. Who else was he going to play there for Buz to play SF? Especially when not on the floor with Pat, who's even more a small forward type than Buz. If Pat and Buz are on the court together, they're both basically just forwards. Unless you're playing Jalen Smith or Collins at PF, and both are much better at center, there was no one on the roster to play PF while Buz plays SF. Our team is mostly little, Buz is one of the tallest players, the others are all centers only.

The minutes Pat Will got are mostly because of his height. If he's 6'5" he doesn't play nearly as much. People keep saying he doesn't play bigs, the only talented bigs were Vuc, who got a ton of minutes, and Pat Will, who got too many. Matas just got here, was playing plenty at the end. Collins just got here, got plenty of minutes.

[2weekswithpay]

He can run and is a great passer

Both are nice to have, but these two skill sets do not stop a player from being a liability on offense.

Transition offense accounts for only a portion of scoring attempts. The Bulls ran more than anyone, and only 24.3% of our shot attempts were in transition.

Passing is also great, but you still need to be able to score to threaten defenses.

Josh Hart is good at both, and he was a complete liability in the halfcourt for the Knicks.

But that isn't true. Hart is fine in the 1/2 court. We should be thrilled to get a guy who gets you 14/10/6/1.5/.3. He was gimpy toward the end of the season after he got Thibs'd, playing 38MPG.

I strongly disagree. He put up good numbers, but teams started guarding him with their centers in the regular season, and it continued in the playoffs. Teams neutralized the Brunson Towns PNR by putting a wing/forward on Kat, switching, and bringing help over with the big who is sagging off Hart because he doesn't shoot 3s. Look at Kornet's 7 block performance in game 5.

Spoiler:

Or you have the Blazers putting 7'2 Clingan on Hart.

Spoiler: