2025 Draft prospects - thread 3

[ShouldaPaidBG]

There's a lot of good players to pick from at 12. It will be really hard to draft a bust. None will be stars but most can be winning contributors. Who we take will say more about management's view of our roster than the draftee.

Additionally, if we're resigning Giddey, I think it would be criminal to come out of this draft without Zikarsky.

[ghostinthepost1]

I think Ace Bailey has Carmelo/T-Mac/Durant type of scoring upside. Really his main weakness skill wise is a poor handle and he lacks strength, both areas he should improve on as he grows older.

Giddey/Ace/Matas would at least be an interesting "core" to build around. If the price was right, something like #12 + Portland's 1st + 1 future protected first, I'd be all over it.

You don't get off the treadmill of mediocrity without taking some risks.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I think Ace Bailey has Carmelo/T-Mac/Durant type of scoring upside. Really his main weakness skill wise is a poor handle and he lacks strength, both areas he should improve on as he grows older.

Giddey/Ace/Matas would at least be an interesting "core" to build around. If the price was right, something like #12 + Portland's 1st + 1 future protected first, I'd be all over it.

You don't get off the treadmill of mediocrity without taking some risks.

He takes and makes tough shots and is tall and athletic enough to get them off whenever.

[DuckIII]

So Ace is a head case now because he’s refusing workouts? Cmon now

He’s not the first

Unfortunately this won’t get him to slide to 12

I think NBA teams might interpret refusing a workout different than demanding a promise before you will work out. I know I would. But maybe it doesn’t matter.

EDIT: My opinion regards his camp, not Ace. I have zero information that Ace is a “headcase.”

[VolumePoster]

There's a lot of good players to pick from at 12. It will be really hard to draft a bust. None will be stars but most can be winning contributors. Who we take will say more about management's view of our roster than the draftee.

Additionally, if we're resigning Giddey, I think it would be criminal to come out of this draft without Zikarsky.

7'4 and athletic is a good gamble to take.

[burlydee]

I think Ace Bailey has Carmelo/T-Mac/Durant type of scoring upside. Really his main weakness skill wise is a poor handle and he lacks strength, both areas he should improve on as he grows older.

Giddey/Ace/Matas would at least be an interesting "core" to build around. If the price was right, something like #12 + Portland's 1st + 1 future protected first, I'd be all over it.

You don't get off the treadmill of mediocrity without taking some risks.

What made TMAC, Carmelo, and Durant so tough is that they are all 6'8 or better with incredible handles. Durant and Carmelo were two of the most successful freshmen ever to play. Ace didn't make the tourney while playing with another top 5 pick.

I don't think Ace is one of the 3 best players in this draft. He takes a lot of tough shots bc he can't create easy ones. I think he will, eventually, be a pretty good scorer in the league. I'd put him on the Rashard Lewis, Zach Lavine, Porter Jr end of the spectrum.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't trade up to get him. Its just o think expectations should be measured.

[nomorezorro]

green room invite list is set: Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell, Noa Essengue, Collin Murray-Boyles, Thomas Sorber, Liam McNeeley, Nolan Traore, Will Riley, Joan Beringer, Nique Clifford, Cedric Coward, Walter Clayton, Danny Wolf

notably no richardson or fleming. if either one of those guys is available in the mid-20s i would be all over a trade to nab one of them, even with the fit questions for jase

[DuckIII]

green room invite list is set: Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell, Noa Essengue, Collin Murray-Boyles, Thomas Sorber, Liam McNeeley, Nolan Traore, Will Riley, Joan Beringer, Nique Clifford, Cedric Coward, Walter Clayton, Danny Wolf

notably no richardson or fleming. if either one of those guys is available in the mid-20s i would be all over a trade to nab one of them, even with the fit questions for jase

Is there a specific number they limit themselves to each year? This would have been a tough year to know where to draw the line. I wonder also if players who tell them in advance they do not intend to appear just don’t get an invite. Not having Jase is the reason I wonder.

[HomoSapien]

So Ace wants a promise that he'll be starting and featured as a star. Let's give him that promise. Yes, he's a complicated player but prior to the lottery we would have all considered it a win if we ended up with the third pick in the lottery and were in a position to draft him. Let's not overthink it.

Give him that promise, let him and his people tank his stock so that he falls as far as possible... let him get drafted by someone who he can tell he'll never suit up for and then we can sweep in with some combo of 12, Coby, and Portland pick.

[nomorezorro]

Is there a specific number they limit themselves to each year? This would have been a tough year to know where to draw the line. I wonder also if players who tell them in advance they do not intend to appear just don’t get an invite. Not having Jase is the reason I wonder.

it looks like they had 24 attendees in 2023 and 2024, but 25 invites went out each year (zach edey and kris murray declined). so it seems like 24 might be the target number of attendees, or at the very least they've kept it at a cap of 25. also appears they do not confirm a guy is attending before issuing an invite

[2weekswithpay]

Become a respectable shooter from 3 or midrange, or become a great interior finisher.

Yeah. I doubt whoever drafts him will let him play out of the post and face up like he did at South Carolina. When you aren't the featured player, complementary skills like shooting become more important. Centers are the exception.

If the shooting never develops, is he good enough at the other aspects of the game to positively impact the team? I'm not sure.

I don't know why you're arguing that a team would or should simply disregard the things CMB is good at to pigeon hole him into a role that is a fraction of his talent, skill and capability....just because?

Complimentary skills are not limited to shooting. He adds value with or without the basketball despite being a bad perimeter shooter.

1.13 PPP in Post-Ups
1.66 PPP on Cuts
1.28 PPP on possessions ending in his shot, pass or turnover
1.10 PPP in transition
1.17 PPP in isolation
0.92 PPP on 103 Drives
69.7% on rim attempts with more than 47 percent of those being self-created attempts
7.7 FTA Per 40 Minutes
+ 8.2 Adj. oRTG on/off (85th Percentile)
- 8.2 Adj. dRTG on/off (94th Percentile)
10.3 BPM as a freshman on a tournament team. The next closest player was at 6.9.
11.9 BPM the following season. The next closest player was at 4.1.

Yes, he's already good enough at other offensive aspects of the game to positively impact a team. He was one of the best two-way players in college basketball last season as a 19-year-old. He has one of the best all-around games in the draft. Point blank.

The sell of CMB is not drafting a one-dimensional defensive player and hoping he becomes competent on offense one day. The sell is drafting a really good two-way player and hoping he becomes a better shooter.

It's not really about disregarding what he's good at; it's simply the nature of the game today. Post ups/Isolations are reserved for the select few. Unless you are drafted to a team where you can do whatever you want, isolations and post ups are for those who have proven themselves as offensive threats in the NBA.

Edey was the most dominant offensive force in college basketball in over 10 years. Edey got 1.4 post ups per game according to the NBA's tracking stats. Sure, Edey was drafted to an established team that already had a pecking order, but this was expected. He had to scale down to a smaller role.

CMB will get his chances to show his offensive capabilities, but saying teams won't let him play like he did at South Carolina shouldn't be controversial. I mentioned featured player for a reason, I doubt an NBA team is going to run offense through him like they did in college. He will likely have to scale down into a smaller role, like most players. Only a select few players are exempt from this.


Evan Mobley had a 12.6 BPM as a freshman.
Shot 78.5% at the rim, with only 52.2% being assisted, makes
1.41 PPP on shots at the rim in the halfcourt.
46% on non-paint 2pt shots with only 41.7% being assisted on. 72 makes as well so a decent sample. This is also more makes than CMB had in 2 seasons.
0.97 PPP on halfcourt jump shots
1.14 PPP on floaters
6.9 FTAs per 40 mins.
0.71 PPP on post ups
Mobley is also 7ft tall and a vertical spacer

Evan Mobley was a superior prospect on both ends IMO, and his offensive skill set has been questioned multiple times. 3 years of diminishing returns playing him next to Jarrett Allen, a non-shooting big. In the first 3 seasons of Mobley's career, lineups with only Allen were better than lineups with Allen and Mobley. It took a new coach in Kenny Atkinson, and Mobley improving across the board to fully utilize this pair.

A lot of the same thing could be said about Mobley, but that didn't make the transition easy, and CMB can't just play center if things don't work out as a PF.

[2weekswithpay]

Players who have outperformed or underperformed their draft position by 10+ spots from 2016-2021

2016
Dejounte Murray (29)
Siakam (27)
Zubac (32)
Brogdon (36)
Georges Niang (50)
Fred VanVleet (undrafted)
Gary Payton 2 (undrafted)

2017
Donovan Mitchell (13)
Bam (14)
Jarrett Allen (22)
OG Anunoby (23)
Kuzma (27)
Derrick White (29)
Josh Hart (30)
Hartenstein (43)
Dillion Brooks (45)
Monte Morris (51)

2018
SGA (11)
Rob Williams (27)
Jalen Brunson (33)
Mitchell Robinson (36)
Gary Trent (37)
Jarred Vanderbilt (40)
Bruce Brown (41)
Deanthony Melton (46)

2019
Brandon Clarke (21)
Poole (28)
Keldon Johnson (29)
Claxton (31)
Gafford (38)
Terance Mann (48)

2020
Haliburton (11)
Maxey (21)
Quickley (25)
Payton Pritchard (26)
Jaden McDaniels (28)
Demond Bane (30)
Tre Jones (41)
Isaiah Joe (49)
Paul Reed (58)
Sam Merril (60)

2021
Sengun (16)
Trey Murphy (17)
Jalen Johnson (20)
Quentin Grimes (25)
Cam Thomas (27)
Santi Aldama (30)
Herb Jones (35)
Deuce McBride (36)
Ayo (38)
Aaron Wiggins (55)
Austin Reaves (undrafted)

I used BPM with a few personal decisions. There will be some disagreements, but I tried to include everyone worth mentioning. Looking at this by position, guards tend to be the biggest overachievers in the draft. There are 52 players listed, and I counted 27 guards. 21 players were upperclassmen, 22 if you count Siakam, who was 22 on draft night but only played 2 seasons.

[Muzbar]

Read on Twitter

This makes me very happy.

I hope they like him a lot.

[Muzbar]

As for Ace,

I can see him falling to the Wizards, he'd actually be a great fit there, IMO.

He could learn from Khris Middleton and be part of a young core of Bub, Kyshawn & Sarr (plus whomever they grab with their later FRP).

[El Ridda]

Flash Q: in a world where Bailey falls past pick #3: Would you do our FRP next year + the Portland + our first this year (#12) to move up to pick 4-6 to get him? Would you see that as a win or an overpay?

[JohnnyTapwater]

I heard Ace's camp is angling for Brooklyn.

nasty work.

[Muzbar]

I heard Ace's camp is angling for Brooklyn.

nasty work.

I mean acquiring a bunch a FRPs in this draft is a cheap way of filling out the roster in Philly and Brooklyn have 4 FRPs.

[Rose2Boozer]

Old Week, New Mock

1. Mavs: Cooper Flagg
2. Spurs: Dylan Harper
3. Sixers: Ace Bailey
4. Hornets: Tre Johnson
5. Jazz: Jeremiah Fears
6. Wizards: VJ Edgecombe
7. Pelicans: Khaman Maluach
8. Nets: Kon Knueppel
9. Raptors: Noa Essengue
10. Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
11. Blazers: Derik Queen
12. Bulls: Thomas Sorber
13. Hawks: Maxime Raynaud
14. Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles
15. Thunder: Danny Wolf
16. Grizzlies: Cedric Coward
17. Wolves: Carter Bryant
18: Wizards: Asa Newell
19. Nets: Egor Demin
20. Heat: Rasheer Fleming
21. Jazz: Joan Beringer
22. Hawks: Nique Clifford
23. Pelicans: Nolan Traore
24.Thunder: Liam McNeeley
25. Magic: Jase Richardson
26. Nets: Walter Clayton Jr.
27. Nets: Hansen Yang
28. Celtics: Will Riley
29. Suns: Drake Powell
30. Clippers: Yanic Konan Niederhauser

[WindyCityBorn]

Flash Q: in a world where Bailey falls past pick #3: Would you do our FRP next year + the Portland + our first this year (#12) to move up to pick 4-6 to get him? Would you see that as a win or an overpay?

Hell no. Too risky to give next year’s pick.

[WindyCityBorn]

I heard Ace's camp is angling for Brooklyn.

nasty work.

So not only is his talent level questionable, but he is also a cancer already.