2025 NBA Draft Discussion Part 9

[Thaddy]

I think Coward is going to be another safe pick. If we could get both him and Fleming we'd have a great draft. I don't think this is the time to consolidate for a star but I would trade Agbaji for another first and take Fleming. After the rookies show they can fill in the gaps after a trade I would look to make a consolidation trade using RJ + Poeltl + Dick + future 1st.

Fleming / Chomche / Yang
Durant / Mogbo
Ingram / Walter
Barnes / Coward
Quickely / Shead

Insert a star at either C or SG and continue filling gaps with the 2nd round picks. I am hoping we take Yang if he's there. Chomche and Yang would be great to have in the development pipeline. It'd be great to see them in the summer league too.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

What about

- Wolf
- kalkbrenner

Wolf (junior):
BPM: 8.3
oWS-dWS: -0.036
WS/40: .145

Kalkbrenner (senior):
dBPM: 4.0
STL%: 0.9

What about sorber?

And Coward (sorry if these are a lot of requests). Cowards 23/24 campaign even would suffice because his efficiency numbers are about the same (apart from his ast % being double in his 6 games this year)

[HumbleRen]

How do y’all feel about KJ in here? I’m kind of leaning towards him at 9.

[Jerry Lucas]

What is oWS-dWS.

Sounds like offensive minus defensive win shares which doesn't seem like the final number should disqualify someone if they were extra good at offense or defense.

It does. Masai-type FRPs have to show two-way potential, but offense actually has to be their calling card over defense in terms of the way they impact winning (Higher oWS/40 than dWS/40, but neither can be a weakness).

That is more than likely a coincidence as the vast majority of prospects have a higher ows than dws.
Like I don't think if Cooper Flagg had 2 more steals and 1 more block per game making him the greatest defensive prospect of all time the Raptors would suddenly say we're not drafting him since his defense is better than his offense.

I've been considering either changing this one, or eliminating the filter completely, for a while now so it doesn't punish those types of prospects that you just mentioned, but admittedly I've been kind of afraid to change any of the filters until the first year that I'm wrong. Going 3/3 right off the bat kind of spooked me into not making adjustments yet.

[Jerry Lucas]

Wolf (junior):
BPM: 8.3
oWS-dWS: -0.036
WS/40: .145

Kalkbrenner (senior):
dBPM: 4.0
STL%: 0.9

What about sorber?

With Sorber it's just his oBPM which is too low, at 3.3

And Coward (sorry if these are a lot of requests). Cowards 23/24 campaign even would suffice because his efficiency numbers are about the same (apart from his ast % being double in his 6 games this year)

Did Essengue or Coward end up meeting the criteria for a “Masai type” of pick??

Coward (junior):
dPRPG: 2.4
BPM: 3.1
oBPM: 3.5
dBPM: -0.5
FTR: 26.6

Coward (6 senior games):
BPM: 8.8
dBPM: 1.7

For Essengue, and any other non-NCAA prospect, I can't evaluate with any degree of confidence because these Masai-type FRP queries only work with NCAA prospects.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[Basketball_Jones]

I think Coward is going to be another safe pick. If we could get both him and Fleming we'd have a great draft. I don't think this is the time to consolidate for a star but I would trade Agbaji for another first and take Fleming. After the rookies show they can fill in the gaps after a trade I would look to make a consolidation trade using RJ + Poeltl + Dick + future 1st.

Fleming / Chomche / Yang
Durant / Mogbo
Ingram / Walter
Barnes / Coward
Quickely / Shead

Insert a star at either C or SG and continue filling gaps with the 2nd round picks. I am hoping we take Yang if he's there. Chomche and Yang would be great to have in the development pipeline. It'd be great to see them in the summer league too.

Coward is safe and I think he also has plenty of upside too. You can argue level of comp and he’s like a year older though otherwise I find very little to complain about with him.

[LoveMyRaps]

Headcase Bailey

[OakleyDokely]

How do y’all feel about KJ in here? I’m kind of leaning towards him at 9.

If the shooting is real (he tailed off at the end of the year) and he can limit the turnovers, he should be a solid pro.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[bboyskinnylegs]

Headcase Bailey

forget Cam Whitmore, this could be a Quincy Miller-like drop if he and his representation are acting like this.

[Psubs]

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Ooooooh, I can't believe I didn't see it before. Danny Wolf is Andrea Bargnani.

[HumbleRen]

Am I the only one who thinks this Ace Bailey stuff is overblown?

Plenty of star prospects have asked teams not to draft them based on fits. Stephen Curry, Haliburton, Alexander Sarr, etc etc.

I don't see him dropping out of the top 7.

[OakleyDokely]

Ace Bailey trying to position himself to a certain team is nothing new. Doesn't make him look the greatest but whatever. The bigger concerns are what he did on the court and there are a lot of red flags.

Red Flag 1: The negative assist to turnover ratio. 2 turnovers to 1.3 assists is bad, it's one of the worst in the draft. The inability to be an efficient on ball playmaker really limits your offensive upside in the NBA.

Red Flag 2: The efficiency. A 53 TS% is pretty mediocre. It wasn't helped by the fact he didn't get to the line a lot either and when he did he shot under 70%.

Red Flag 3: His size for his style of play. He measured fine (6'7, 7ft wingspan) but that isn't gigantic by NBA standards. He's going to face defenders as big or bigger in the NBA. This becomes an issue for him because he likes to take a lot of difficult shots and that's a lot easier to do when you're facing mostly smaller college kids. In the NBA, every wing is 6'6-6'10 and getting off shots is a lot more difficult.

Red Flag 4: The analytics don't like him and the stats typically don't lie.


He's still young, so there's a lot of room for growth. But you'd have to bet on the kid having a high work rate and the mentality to know that he's not good enough yet and that major improvements need to happen before he can become an efficient, high usage wing in the NBA.

[Mark_83]

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Ooooooh, I can't believe I didn't see it before. Danny Wolf is Andrea Bargnani.

More fluid and better handles. If he could shoot more consistently good from 18-24 feet he could be a steal. Bargnani was also low basketball IQ, with poor processing.

[OakleyDokely]

OK, I think I've finally settled on my top 20.

1. C Flagg
2. D Harper
3. T Johnson
4. J Fears
5. K Maluach
6. K Knueppel
7. VJ Edgecombe
8. C Coward
9. CM Boyles
10. R Fleming
11. K Jakucionis
12. A Bailey
13. N Essengue
14. C Bryant
15. J Richardson
16. T Sorber
17. D Queen
18. A Thiero
19. E Demin
20. A Newell

[Basketball_Jones]

Boyles…bro…him Scottie and Yak are gonna be a train wreck on offense

[HumbleRen]

Boyles…bro…him Scottie and Yak are gonna be a train wreck on offense

Yeah, I don't see how they work at all.

A shame because I really like his skillset, if Scottie was a perimeter oriented wing, CMB would be a no brainer pick for me.

[WuTang_CMB]

https://clutchpoints.com/nba/nba-stories/siegels-scoop-how-kevin-durant-trade-saga-impacts-draft-free-agency-rumors

The fourth pick in the draft belongs to the Hornets, an organization that is looking to continue their rebuild around LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Over the last couple of weeks, Kon Knueppel and Tre Johnson have been the two names most associated with the Hornets when talking with rival teams.

Many around the league have downplayed the speculation regarding Knueppel and Johnson, as it seems like these are two names as a smokescreen to cover up Charlotte's true intentions. The Hornets have a plan, and they've been extremely quiet leading up to the draft by keeping their cards very close to their chest, something the regime that came before this new front office struggled with.

With this said, league sources signal the Hornets have actively been engaged in trade conversations with others eyeing the fourth pick in anticipation of the 76ers passing on Bailey. There also seems to be a potential pre-draft war breaking out between the Wizards, Pelicans, and Nets over Jeremiah Fears, who is widely viewed as the second-best guard in the draft behind Harper.

While they may hold interest in Bailey, these three teams also have Fears high on their draft boards, sources said. Trading up to the fourth pick with Charlotte would potentially give these organizations a choice between Fears and Bailey, as the Hornets could comfortably move down a few spots and still end up with the player they want.

It is hard to imagine Charlotte making a trade that would push them out of the top 10.

Mark Williams continues to come up in trade discussions around the league, and it seems like a matter of time before the Hornets move him. Many are attempting to connect the dots before the draft with chatter surrounding the Hornets being active in trade discussions, which has led to a hypothesis suggesting Khaman Maluach is Charlotte's main target inside the top 10.

With all the attention Bailey and Fears are drawing, Maluach will very likely be on the board in the 5-9 range of the draft. If this is in fact Jeff Peterson's big plan for the Hornets, he could leverage the fourth pick, move down a few spots to select Maluach, and also add additional assets from his friend Sean Marks, who he was the assistant GM for in Brooklyn before being picked to spearhead Charlotte's revamped front office.

Fears and Johnson are the two prospects being linked the most to Washington. This is not to say that the organization is only considering these two players, especially with the potential of Bailey dropping out of the third pick. What the Wizards decide to do immediately impacts the Pelicans and Nets right behind them.

New Orleans and new executive Joe Dumars are keeping all of their options open this offseason. Although it appears as if Zion Williamson is not going anywhere, the same cannot be said for other talents on this roster like CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy III — three players teams have called to talk about with Dumars and his new Pelicans front office.

Murphy is the player drawing the most interest, but the team has not engaged in serious conversations about trading him, sources said. Instead, the Pelicans are getting a feel for what his value is and what rival teams are thinking.

As things pertain to the draft, New Orleans does hold interest in Bailey and Fears, sources said. Khaman Maluach is another player who has been widely linked to the Pelicans. If Johnson falls to the seventh pick, he too will be in consideration for the Pelicans, assuming they remain in this spot.

All of that leads to the Nets, the team with the most first-round picks (four) in this year's draft. Expect Brooklyn to remain active in trade conversations leading up to the draft. The Nets have serious interest in Fears and Bailey, along with registered interest in Knueppel, Egor Demin, and Noa Essengue, sources said.

Along with the Nets, who own the 19th, 26th, and 27th picks, there are some teams outside the lottery that are expected to attempt to move up in the draft. The Oklahoma City Thunder (15, 24), Jazz (21), Atlanta Hawks (22), and Pelicans (23) are the four most-discussed teams next to Brooklyn as the most likely to try and trade up from their spots in the 20s, depending on which prospects fall in and out of the lottery.

The back end of the top 10 sees the Raptors with the ninth pick and the Rockets with the 10th pick. These are two teams involved in the Durant trade sweepstakes, and both organizations have been involved in trade talks outside of the star forward, sources said.

Toronto is said to be prioritizing defensive versatility and size in this draft, whereas Houston is in a win-now mode. It is more likely that the Rockets trade their pick than the Raptors to acquire a player that brings value to their playoff ambitions.

The Rockets are said to have interest in Wizards wing Corey Kispert, sources said. This has led to some speculation about whether Washington would leverage Kispert in a deal that could move them up from the 18th pick to the 10th pick.

Let's make this clear before the aggregators go crazy: there is no confirmation that the Wizards are actively trying to move from the 18th pick to specifically land the 10th pick with Houston, ultimately trading Kispert in the process. Teams are constantly talking, and this was an idea that had bounced around like a game of telephone from one organization to another.

With this said, it does seem like Washington is actively looking to move up in the late lottery region with the No. 18 pick.

Well, do you see now why we are all saying this year's draft, specifically the top 10, is so unpredictable? So much trade activity will take place during the 2025 NBA Draft, which is why there is no telling where everyone ends up outside of Flagg and Harper at the top of the board.

Some quick hitters on some prospects in this year's draft:

Joan Beringer is drawing a lot of attention inside the top 15 of this year's draft. He could wind up going a lot earlier than many anticipate in mock drafts.
The debate between Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, and Nolan Traore as the next-best guards behind Fears varies from team to team. Some scouts aren't thrilled with Jakucionis' upside as a true offensive threat and lead guard. Demin put on a show at the combine in his workouts, and there are teams in the lottery that hold firm interest in him. Traore is likely to be selected in the 10-20 region.
Asa Newell is another prospect many are downplaying in projections and mock drafts. There is serious traction between the Georgia big man and teams with late lottery picks, as well as those right after the lottery.
Chaz Lanier and Adou Thiero are drawing interest late in the first round despite heavily being projected as second-round prospects. Keep an eye on one, or both, ending up in the 24-30 region.

[ArthurVandelay]

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