2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[Kolkmania]

Bet on OKC lead guard archetype

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1717819

SGA was a very shifty ball handler at Kentucky. It was his weird shooting motion that held him back in that draft, but his ability to initiate offense was on a different level than VJ.

I don't think it is fair to VJ to expect him to be a primary initiation in the NBA at any point. The bar is so high and since it's so important for the team, you don't get a lot of reps to train that skill.

Obviously he has enough other skills to be a very positive contributor in the NBA of course.

I’m referring to the lead guard archetype OKC likes, not specifically SGA. The type of guard who’s good two-way, plays bigger than their size, good feel, makes a high impact, and has strong fundamental guard skills (dribble, pass and shoot). I’ve already mentioned how easy for these type to excel in the NBA.

Sure those fundamentals are really important and makes a guard playable in the NBA finals. But ultimately series are determined by the playmakers who either make enough shots or create enough easy shots for others to convert. SGA and Williams are that for OKC, I don't think that it's fair to ask a similar kind of contribution from VJ.

[Covi_Marsh]

Either Ace or Noa.

How can you still be interested in this loser?

We just lost all leverage of trading down, because the teams that might be interested in him (Washington, Brooklyn) probably feel like they can just stand pat and still get him.

Why would a team let a lack of a workout dictate then getting the best player for their franchise. This happens all the time. I just watched a Hornets pod... They say they hear a player didn't want to go to Charlotte every draft and laughed, because they still draft them. Their insider says the player that refused to work out with them and didn't want to play with Ball is 100% Jeremiah Fears. They aren't going to draft him most likely, but they wouldn't care.

This kind of posturing happens every year with multiple players. Teams play the game and work out players they don't want in order to throw teams off and don't workout the guys they really want (Jared nor Tyrese worked out for Philly). Players in the middle of the first don't workout with 20 teams just in case.

Not tipping out pick at 3 only makes sense if you’re trying to trade up or back.

The leaks I feel we put out, were only about Ace and VJ. Gotta let Spurs know don’t trade back or we’ll draft your guy. As well as the teams behind us. move up to 3 or we’ll draft your guy.

[CPops57]

Why would a team let a lack of a workout dictate then getting the best player for their franchise.

The Sixers shouldn't let a workout or agent machinations dictate who they draft. I have no doubt that if Morey wanted a player, he'd still draft them even if they didn't want to be here. He'd probably say "tough cookies" and stifle his laughter through their tears and then go in his office and rub one out and then go and do the same thing to our second round pick. That's just who he is. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/y6iegj/kevin_oconnor_normally_someone_with_a_boot_on_a/

But I just think it's very unlikely that Morey is genuinely interested in Ace at #3. Bailey is one of the least Moreyball players in this draft. A bad free throw shooter. A middling three point shooter at best. Terrible at getting to the rim and finishing. The analytics models don't love him, etc. I'd be shocked if this was his target even before this mess.

[Iverson Armband]

Watch on YouTube

Must watch.

[Negrodamus]

An unprecedented amount of players dropped out of this draft to go back to college/intl team. I’m not saying this because of draft fatigue; there are reasons behind me not liking this one. Next years draft is going to be stacked full of insanely good upperclassmen along with highly touted freshmen like Dybantsa, Peterson, etc.

I actually think quality of prospect is going to improve with more prospects spending more time in college to refine their games. It’s going to change how I consider sophomores and juniors going forwards.

Could be that the overall quality of the upcoming years improve due to longer college careers, but that's at the expense of this year's draft from pick 20 to 60 or so. The quality of prospects at #3 was not affected due to the rule changes in the NCAA, right? If you do think so, what players do you think remained in college that would have affected the top of this draft?

I think the draft cycle is quite similar each year. At the start everyone is very optimistic, but the closer you get to the draft, each deficiency is highlighted.

As a reference, a 3&D wing was selected 1st, a 6'1'' guard who came off the bench was selected third and Stephon Castle, last year's ROTY, would be placed in the same tier as Tre/VJ/Knueppel imo. A big guard, with very questionable shooting and meh playmaking numbers.

I'd say it dips into the lottery. I think Yaxel Lendebourg was probably a lottery pick, same with Isaiah Evans. Either way, I think the top of this draft was bad either way, but the depth makes our second rounder somewhat useless and any trade down scenario is made tougher because it's slim pickings with each passing pick. I thought the top of last year's draft was pretty questionable, although it was heavy with international prospects so it's harder to evaluate. 2023 was also a little rough, and the guys who have come out of it have been either international or were playing in an equally difficult to evaluate G League/Overtime Elite. 2022 felt like the last time there was some truly interesting group of top of the draft college studs.

[Jailblazers7]

Watch on YouTube

Must watch.

Good video and I think it points to what would get me excited about Tre. I’m excited by his potential as a traditional SG - movement shooting, mix in some post touches, and throw in an occasional PnR. I don’t think he’ll ever be a primary playmaker because of his difficulty getting to the rim and he lacks elite passing to make up for that. But as a true SG, I totally see the vision for him as a Klay Thompson style SG with more on-ball juice.

I struggle with the Ray Allen comps tho because Bucks Ray was a better athlete who was posterizing people semi-regularly.

[Black Mage]

Either Ace or Noa.

How can you still be interested in this loser?

We just lost all leverage of trading down, because the teams that might be interested in him (Washington, Brooklyn) probably feel like they can just stand pat and still get him.

Why would a team let a lack of a workout dictate then getting the best player for their franchise. This happens all the time. I just watched a Hornets pod... They say they hear a player didn't want to go to Charlotte every draft and laughed, because they still draft them. Their insider says the player that refused to work out with them and didn't want to play with Ball is 100% Jeremiah Fears. They aren't going to draft him most likely, but they wouldn't care.

This kind of posturing happens every year with multiple players. Teams play the game and work out players they don't want in order to throw teams off and don't workout the guys they really want (Jared nor Tyrese worked out for Philly). Players in the middle of the first don't workout with 20 teams just in case.

I think Kyle summed it up best. It's not just this decision in a vacuum, it's got to be put into context of what we have seen from Ace since H.S.

Why did he stay at a public H.S. versus going to an elite basketball prep school?

Why did he go to Rutgers versus seeking out a bigger program?

Why did he settle for pull ups inside the arc versus from 3 on transition shots?

Why did he settle for pull ups in midrange rather than press to the rim?

Why do you demand to go Top 3; but also demand a clear path to usage and stardom?

The on court stuff you could argue was him taking what's given and going for what's comfortable. I've made that argument myself, if you're a 50% mid-range shooter why force a bad drive to a packed lane. However, the off-court stuff and now the recent stuff with rejecting requests, then accepting, then canceling, suggest it's something else altogether.

Ace seems to want to stay in his comfort-zone where he plays how he likes to play and isn't particularly open to competition for being "the guy." He was comfortable staying in his home area where his public H.S. team would let him do and play however he wanted and he was "the guy." Rutgers gave him NIL money (but he could still have gotten some at another top program) but he went to Rutgers where the team was letting him play however he wanted with no system and he would be "the guy" to score. Now you have him wanting to be Top 3 but also going to a situation where he won't face competition, won't be 2nd or 3rd option, but will be "the guy" to play how he wants.

We have a gaping hole at the wing, we have his supposed idol who he could be mentored by on the roster and PG praised the hell out of this kid. He'd have 2 table setters to get him easy C&S buckets and he could be a play finisher for us. Joel and PG are frequently hurt so he'd get a ton of time to help create offense. He also idolizes Tatum, who literally took the same route Ace would take with us coming on as a rookie and growing into a star player. But somehow our team doesn't have a path to stardom?

I just don't buy that, to me this just answered a lot of the intangible questions I had and it reeks of a kid, even if getting bad advice by his junk agent, who still accepts the bad advice because in the end the advice is getting him what he wants, to play his way and be "the guy" on a squad lacking legitimate offensive hubs.

Believe me, I am terrified to pass on Ace and have us become the Hornets with Kobe or us with Tatum where we had a chance to nail down our wing position with a star player and we passed b/c of fears over attitude and mentality. But if Ace really wouldn't buy into the role we need him to play; Nurse is going to bench him, it will go sour and we'd never get to see the Kobe/Tatum (growing into a star perspective) outcome anyway.

[Black Mage]

Something to think about. Morey said pretty recently (I think on RTRS) that he tries to keep who he wants to draft as close to the vest as possible (paraphrasing). He specifically mentioned hating seeing McCain being mocked to the Sixers so much last year and it bothering him. My takeaway: we’re not taking VJ or Ace. My suspicion is Ace knows we were basically playing him with no real intention on taking him and that’s why he cancelled.

That makes sense when you're sitting back in the draft. It doesn't hold up when you are Pick #3. You're in the driver's seat and are assured you're getting the guy you want after the top 2. Even if the goal was a trade down, having Ace or VJ mocked to you only helps for teams you want trading up to you.

[Iverson Armband]

Something to think about. Morey said pretty recently (I think on RTRS) that he tries to keep who he wants to draft as close to the vest as possible (paraphrasing). He specifically mentioned hating seeing McCain being mocked to the Sixers so much last year and it bothering him. My takeaway: we’re not taking VJ or Ace. My suspicion is Ace knows we were basically playing him with no real intention on taking him and that’s why he cancelled.

That makes sense when you're sitting back in the draft. It doesn't hold up when you are Pick #3. You're in the driver's seat and are assured you're getting the guy you want after the top 2. Even if the goal was a trade down, having Ace or VJ mocked to you only helps for teams you want trading up to you.

Exactly. So it’s in our best interest to not make it known we want Tre and continue to hype VJ and Ace.

[76ciology]

Sure those fundamentals are really important and makes a guard playable in the NBA finals. But ultimately series are determined by the playmakers who either make enough shots or create enough easy shots for others to convert. SGA and Williams are that for OKC, I don't think that it's fair to ask a similar kind of contribution from VJ.

He might not be able to create much with the ball next season, but I genuinely believe he’ll develop that ability by year 2 or 3. That mid range (only 19% assisted in HC) pull up or blow by option will always be there whenever he run a 1-5 pick and roll.

He has solid ballhandling, a strong shot profile (better than Oladipo, Westbrook, or even SGA at the same age;) a high release point, plays bigger than his size (6’5” with a 8’5.5” standing reach), a quick first step, and explosive finishing ability. He’s also shown real scoring instincts, unlike the utility guards he’s often compared to (one of the top leaders in scoring playing with Ayton, Hield and Gordon). When you put all these traits together, he has a legitimate chance to become a high-impact, efficient two-way guard who can atleast average 20 points per game in the future.

[sixers hoops]

Something to think about. Morey said pretty recently (I think on RTRS) that he tries to keep who he wants to draft as close to the vest as possible (paraphrasing). He specifically mentioned hating seeing McCain being mocked to the Sixers so much last year and it bothering him. My takeaway: we’re not taking VJ or Ace. My suspicion is Ace knows we were basically playing him with no real intention on taking him and that’s why he cancelled.

That makes sense when you're sitting back in the draft. It doesn't hold up when you are Pick #3. You're in the driver's seat and are assured you're getting the guy you want after the top 2. Even if the goal was a trade down, having Ace or VJ mocked to you only helps for teams you want trading up to you.

Exactly. So it’s in our best interest to not make it known we want Tre and continue to hype VJ and Ace.

I don’t think Morey cares who is mocked to us because nobody is going to jump ahead of us and steal our player. And the perception of the players being considered for the third pick is pretty limited. However, it makes no sense for Morey to reveal his pick at any point, even if he has no intentions of trading it. The third pick has the most value when nobody has any idea of what we plan to do with the pick. I think trading back and still drafting VJ isn’t really an option. He is likely going 3 or 4.

I have no idea who we really want, but keeping our information close provides the most optionality.

[Arsenal]

That makes sense when you're sitting back in the draft. It doesn't hold up when you are Pick #3. You're in the driver's seat and are assured you're getting the guy you want after the top 2. Even if the goal was a trade down, having Ace or VJ mocked to you only helps for teams you want trading up to you.

Exactly. So it’s in our best interest to not make it known we want Tre and continue to hype VJ and Ace.

I don’t think Morey cares who is mocked to us because nobody is going to jump ahead of us and steal our player. And the perception of the players being considered for the third pick is pretty limited. However, it makes no sense for Morey to reveal his pick at any point, even if he has no intentions of trading it. The third pick has the most value when nobody has any idea of what we plan to do with the pick. I think trading back and still drafting VJ isn’t really an option. He is likely going 3 or 4.

I have no idea who we really want, but keeping our information close provides the most optionality.

It seems CHA loves VJ so he's going #4 if not #3. Hopefully, someone falls in love with him and wants to jump into #3 to grab him.

Based on how awesome VJ apparently is, that should definitely happen, right?

[76ciology]

Ideally, the Hornets and Jazz are locked in on VJ and Kneuppel, given their analytics heavy approach. Meanwhile, Morey has favored Tre all along. That sets up a potential 3 team scenario where both the Hornets and Jazz pay us to move down two spots, allowing them to secure VJ and Kneuppel, while we land Tre and additional assets from both teams.

But then the Wizards come into play. They’re aggressive in pursuing Tre, and it turns out Kasparas is actually Morey’s real target all along, his scoring efficiency (15ppg on just 10 shots!), free throw rate, PnR maestro and stepback 3PT% fit Morey’s lead guard archetype perfectly. So now the Wizards are also willing to pay us just to move up a single spot.

Suddenly, we’re in a spot where multiple teams are bidding to move ahead, and we can trade down, get our guy, and collect assets from all these teams.

[Covi_Marsh]

Ideally, the Hornets and Jazz are locked in on VJ and Kneuppel, given their analytics heavy approach. Meanwhile, Morey has favored Tre all along. That sets up a potential 3 team scenario where both the Hornets and Jazz pay us to move down two spots, allowing them to secure VJ and Kneuppel, while we land Tre and additional assets from both teams.

But then the Wizards come into play. They’re aggressive in pursuing Tre, and it turns out Kasparas is actually Morey’s real target all along, his scoring efficiency, free throw rate, PnR maestro and stepback 3PT% fit Morey’s lead guard archetype perfectly. So now the Wizards are also willing to pay us just to move up a single spot.

Suddenly, we’re in a spot where multiple teams are bidding to move ahead, and we can trade down, get our guy, and collect assets from all these teams.

So draft night we have all that prepared soon as we are on the clock. The Spurs shock the world and pass on Dylan Harper. We place our phones on DND and select Dylan Harper.

[76ciology]

Ideally, the Hornets and Jazz are locked in on VJ and Kneuppel, given their analytics heavy approach. Meanwhile, Morey has favored Tre all along. That sets up a potential 3 team scenario where both the Hornets and Jazz pay us to move down two spots, allowing them to secure VJ and Kneuppel, while we land Tre and additional assets from both teams.

But then the Wizards come into play. They’re aggressive in pursuing Tre, and it turns out Kasparas is actually Morey’s real target all along, his scoring efficiency, free throw rate, PnR maestro and stepback 3PT% fit Morey’s lead guard archetype perfectly. So now the Wizards are also willing to pay us just to move up a single spot.

Suddenly, we’re in a spot where multiple teams are bidding to move ahead, and we can trade down, get our guy, and collect assets from all these teams.

So draft night we have all that prepared soon as we are on the clock. The Spurs shock the world and pass on Dylan Harper. We place our phones on DND and select Dylan Harper.

The Mavs shock the world once again by drafting Ace Bailey, explaining why he refused workouts with any other team. The next day, Nico Harrison is nowhere to be found, reportedly managing the team remotely via Zoom for the next 10 years from an undisclosed location.

[Redemption76]

Love this scenario. We need a big point and seems like Harper is off the board from the Spurs people.

KJ is a perfect point and has the size, passing, 3 pt shooting and BBIQ that we need for the team currently and in the future.

But then again, I’ve been in and then out on every other Top 10 prospect so far!

[OleSchool]

Exactly. So it’s in our best interest to not make it known we want Tre and continue to hype VJ and Ace.

I don’t think Morey cares who is mocked to us because nobody is going to jump ahead of us and steal our player. And the perception of the players being considered for the third pick is pretty limited. However, it makes no sense for Morey to reveal his pick at any point, even if he has no intentions of trading it. The third pick has the most value when nobody has any idea of what we plan to do with the pick. I think trading back and still drafting VJ isn’t really an option. He is likely going 3 or 4.

I have no idea who we really want, but keeping our information close provides the most optionality.

It seems CHA loves VJ so he's going #4 if not #3. Hopefully, someone falls in love with him and wants to jump into #3 to grab him.

Based on how awesome VJ apparently is, that should definitely happen, right?

Exactly!! The same way it happened with that generational prospect Ace..... oh wait

[Arsenal]

FOSH BOMB says we are high on Tre Johnson if we can't get Harper! Makes sense to me!!!

Read on Twitter

[Iverson Armband]

You’re gonna watch this and tell me this guy can’t drive or pass?

Watch on YouTube

[OleSchool]

FOSH BOMB says we are high on Tre Johnson if we can't get Harper! Makes sense to me!!!

Read on Twitter

This doesn't make any sense. A few pages ago someone posted a tweet saying we already made offers to SAS of the 3rd and multiple first but SAS declined. Now it's saying all we did was call and didn't make an offer. Which is it???

Cause apparently we're "desperately" trying to move to 2 for Harper