BAMAFREAK wrote:Kent wrote:
As an Orlando fan, I'd much rather have Bane than those picks in the 20s.
So I agree. If you can draft like Memphis, you have a different outlook.
Which is why this can absolutely be a situation where both teams "win" a trade, which is why teams execute trades to begin with.
I understand it’s a different situation in Orlando right now, but a few things here regarding “picks in the 20s”
You have already given the 16th pick.
The Suns/Wizards will almost certainly be top 15
And then to the Magics picks, you guys haven’t picked as late as the 20s since 2017. A lot of those picks being very very high. Now, the roster and outlook is very strong right now but who knows, it’s definitely not a given none of those picks turn out juicy.
While no one has a crystal ball, and "picks in the 20s" may have become a little too generalized, a little bit of closer view of what we know, and what is likely shows, in my opinion, that (a) it's probably not too far off, and (b) even taking a slightly more conservative approach probably doesn't significantly alter the value of the package of picks.
Let's look closer: 4 1st Rounders, and the option to swap a future MEM/ORL 1st Rounder under certain circumstances. We know 2025 (not the end value obviously, but where the pick will be in the draft.) We'll have to project 5 years out.
Assumptions: ORL was a good team; a Playoff team. And one of the younger teams overall, with their two best players <24. Taken together, no other changes, they were likely to see marginal improvement. This trade speeds up that process by filling a known need with a player just approaching his prime years. I acknowledge anything can happen; Bane could suddenly flame out in another environment; the injury woes of last year could be an ongoing nagging problem. Who knows; just working off of what we do know and what is reasonable to expect.
2025 - ORL 1st - #16
2026 - Likely PHX late lottery?This will most likely be the Suns pick. It
could be the Magic pick if the Magic were worse than both the Wizards and Suns, but that seems unlikely at this point. So it will likely be either the Wizards or the Suns. The swap would be for the
worst of the Wizards/Suns. Durant is still unresolved, so there's that wildcard, but obviously if deal they're getting value in return. And because they don't have their own pick, less likely that they'd try to tank this upcoming season. At this point, I'd consider it ~#10 pick. It could be better than that, and/or their could be lottery luck, but recall it's the worse of the PHX/WAS pick, so it's not a 'Mavs win the lottery; type of risk. But there is nevertheless real risk, especially in light of the next draft looking relatively well at the tope. Even though there's less certainty the further out we project, this would be the pick with the most potential heartburn, for me at least.
2027 - Nothing
2028 - ORL 1st (unprotected) Not
that far out. Bane in prime, and presumably Wagner/Banchero having made marginal improvements as they near their prime years.
2029 - Option to swap w/ORL (protected) This swap is top 2 protected. So the absolutely worst case scenario here, irrespective of how likely/unlikely it is, would be that ORL gets the #3 overall pick, PHX gets the #30 pick, and PHX exercises their option to trade 1st Rounders.
2030 - ORL 1st (unprotected)It really too far out to tell. Bane would likely be toward the tail of his prime. Wagner/Banchero right in the midst of it. It could range from the of the 1st to an early 1st if something catastrophic happens. Just too far in advance to really project with any level of certainty. Given what we know now (the age and production of current players), the desire to make a run, and the lack of incentive to lost without having own pick, I would not project this to be a particularly valuable pick.
So what does that all mean?
ORL was #16 in the draft this year. Given what we know right now, I think it's reasonable to project the Magic as a team drafting in the 20s going forward, but for the sake of this exercise let's taper that a bit and just assume they're a team that will be draft #18 or later for the foreseeable future (only two positions better 'in the standings' than with 22 year old Banchero, 23 year old Wagner, and no Bane.)
So, if you start with that premise (reasonable minds can differ,) you're trading the opportunity to grab a guy like these below 3 times over the next 5 seasons. Of the 4 1st Rounders traded, you know one of them is #16 in this years draft, then you've traded 3 opportunities at guys like these:
2024 - with it being the most recent, they will still have time to prove themselves, and someone probably will, but do any of them really make ORL question the Bane trade?
2023 - Jamie Jaquez and Podz look solid and project well.
2022 - Kessler & Braun were good grabs.
2021 - Jalen Johnson was a good pick.
2020 - Here's the year that might make people scared with guys like Maxey, Quickley, Pritchard and... Bane!
So if we apply the last 5 years going forward (it will undoubtably be different, just a gauge), and view it through the worst case scenario using hindsight, you're trading the #16 in this draft, and 3 of Jaquez, Podz, Kessler, Braun, Johnson, Maxey, Quickly, Pritchard and Bane.
If you knew it would be, say, Pritchard, Maxey and Kessler, you're probably not doing it as that's like a worst case scenario. But it's also incredibly unlikely that each of those picks actually lands the best available person every time. Those 9 guys listed above make up only 13.8% of that whole list. Statistically, it's more likely that you end up with none of those guys.
There is certainly some risk here. And if there weren't the Grizz wouldn't have done it. But I think it's calculated risk, and ORL ends up with exactly the type of player who can help them, and fits within their time frame now, and the Grizz possibly get a good player in the next 5 years, but mostly get hope and, perhaps more likely, NBA currency. I think it was a good move for both teams.
When this is all said and done, if we look back 5 years from now, I think there's a good chance that if you average out the draft pick positions, that ORL did in fact trade a bunch of "picks in the 20s," on the whole. Given that we know one of them is #16, and that the best pick is probably next year, the other two years would have to be like a top 4 team each year to
actually make it average out to "picks in the 20s" so maybe it's "picks in the 19s +"
.
2024 18 Tristan Da Silva
2024 19 Ja'Kobe Walter
2024 20 Jaylon Tyson
2024 21 Yves Missi
2024 22 DaRon Holmes
2024 23 AJ Johnson
2024 24 Kyshawn George
2024 25 Pacome Dadiet
2024 26 Dillon Jones
2024 27 Terrence Shannon Jr.
2024 28 Ryan Dunn
2024 29 Isaiah Collier
2024 30 Baylor Scheierman
2023 18 Jaime Jaquez Jr.
2023 19 Brandin Podziemski
2023 20 Cam Whitmore
2023 21 Noah Clowney
2023 22 Dariq Whitehead
2023 23 Kris Murray
2023 24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper
2023 25 Marcus Sasser
2023 26 Ben Sheppard
2023 27 Nick Smith Jr.
2023 28 Brice Sensabaugh
2023 29 Julian Strawther
2023 30 Kobe Brown
2022 18 Dalen Terry
2022 19 Jake LaRavia
2022 20 Malaki Branham
2022 21 Christian Braun
2022 22 Walker Kessler
2022 23 David Roddy
2022 24 MarJon Beauchamp
2022 25 Blake Wesley
2022 26 Wendell Moore Jr.
2022 27 Nikola Jović
2022 28 Patrick Baldwin Jr.
2022 29 TyTy Washington Jr.
2022 30 Peyton Watson
2021 18 Tre Mann
2021 19 Kai Jones
2021 20 Jalen Johnson
2021 21 Keon Johnson
2021 22 Isaiah Jackson
2021 23 Usman Garuba
2021 24 Josh Christopher
2021 25 Quentin Grimes
2021 26 Bones Hyland
2021 27 Cam Thomas
2021 28 Jaden Springer
2021 29 Day'Ron Sharpe
2021 30 Santi Aldama
2020 18 Josh Green
2020 19 Saddiq Bey
2020 20 Precious Achiuwa
2020 21 Tyrese Maxey
2020 22 Zeke Nnaji
2020 23 Leandro Bolmaro
2020 24 R.J. Hampton
2020 25 Immanuel Quickley
2020 26 Payton Pritchard
2020 27 Udoka Azubuike
2020 28 Jaden McDaniels
2020 29 Malachi Flynn
2020 30 Desmond Bane
