Defense Only - Gary Payton vs Nate McMillan

[AStark1991]

Although Payton at his peak is widely considered to be one of the absolute best defensive point guards of all-time, a case can also be made that he wasn't even the best on his own team in that regard, as Nate McMillan was also an elite defender and arguably just as impactful on a minute-to-minute basis. Pound for pound, who do you think was the better defensive player?

[penbeast0]

This would be a good one to pull some thread necromancy from when both were still playing.

[kcktiny]

a case can also be made that he wasn't even the best on his own team

He wasn't? Then state your case as to why.

Nate McMillan was... arguably just as impactful

His first 4 seasons in the league (1986-87 to 1989-90) McMillan started the 11th most games among all PGs, played 29 min/g, had the 6th most steals and the most blocks among PGs. He was certainly a known commodity in the league. But he wasn't named to an all-defense team (voted on by NBA head coaches) until his 8th (age 29) and 9th seasons in the league, and then to just the all-defensive 2nd team.

Payton was all-defensive 1st team 9 straight seasons ages 25-33 (1993-94 to 2001-02).

OK - so where's your argument for McMillan being just as impactful on defense as Payton?

[mdonnelly1989]

How well did McMillian do against MJ in 1996

Never hear anything about it

[AStark1991]

a case can also be made that he wasn't even the best on his own team

He wasn't? Then state your case as to why.

Nate McMillan was... arguably just as impactful

His first 4 seasons in the league (1986-87 to 1989-90) McMillan started the 11th most games among all PGs, played 29 min/g, had the 6th most steals and the most blocks among PGs. He was certainly a known commodity in the league. But he wasn't named to an all-defense team (voted on by NBA head coaches) until his 8th (age 29) and 9th seasons in the league, and then to just the all-defensive 2nd team.

Payton was all-defensive 1st team 9 straight seasons ages 25-33 (1993-94 to 2001-02).

OK - so where's your argument for McMillan being just as impactful on defense as Payton?

Payton is obviously the winner here in terms of accolades and longevity, but peak for peak it's a very close race in my opinion.

1994 Nate McMillan (25.8 Minutes per game)
- 3.2 Defensive Rebounds per game, 3.0 Steals per game (best in the league), 0.3 Blocks per game
- Defensive Rating: 95
- Defensive Win Shares: 4.5
- Defensive Box Plus/Minus: 5.5 (best in the league)
- Steal Percentage: 5.8 (best in the league)
- Block Percentage: 0.8
1996 Gary Payton (39.0 Minutes per game)
- 2.9 Defensive Rebounds per game, 2.9 Steals per game (best in the league), 0.2 Blocks per game
- Defensive Rating: 102
- Defensive Win Shares: 5.6
- Defensive Box Plus/Minus: 1.8
- Steal Percentage: 3.7
- Block Percentage: 0.5

In summation, peak McMillan was better than peak Payton in pretty much every defensive category while playing 13 less minutes per game. So my initial statement of saying that he has a case for being the more impactful defender on a minute-to-minute basis is pretty undeniable. I guess this all comes down to whether you are more of a proponent for peak or longevity. If you prefer peak the answer is McMillan, if you prefer longevity the answer is Payton.

[kcktiny]

So my initial statement of saying that he has a case for being the more impactful defender on a minute-to-minute basis is pretty undeniable.

Perhaps you should take the time understand just what your metrics do and do not actually measure.

Not one of your defensive metrics listed considers FG% allowed on defense. Not one.

I guess this all comes down to whether you are more of a proponent for peak or longevity. If you prefer peak the answer is McMillan

McMillan played roughly some 3 to 4 decades ago. Payton some 2 to 3 and 1/2 decades ago.

You by chance watch both players play during their careers? Because those that voted for the all-defensive teams did.

And they overwhelmingly thought Payton was the better defender.

[AStark1991]

You by chance watch both players play during their careers? Because those that voted for the all-defensive teams did.

Funny you ask, because I'm a life-long Seattle area resident and had Sonics season tickets starting with the 92/93 season until the end of the teams existence. I'm not here to argue so if that's all you're looking to do then I'm out. McMillan is currently leading the poll so it's obvious that my opinion on the topic isn't totally far fetched like you're making it out to be. Have a good one.

[lessthanjake]

I think the key to McMillan argument here is the 1994-1996 Pollack on-off data.

In 1994, McMillan had a +16.5 ON, with a +13.3 on-off. Meanwhile, Payton had a +7.9 ON, with a -6.1 on-off.

In 1995, McMillan had a +13.4 ON, with a +10.1 on-off. Meanwhile, Payton had a +8.9 ON, with a +1.5 on-off.

In 1996, McMillan had a +6.8 ON, with a -2.1 on-off. Meanwhile, Payton had a +9.3 ON, with a +5.4 on-off.

Given this data, it seems almost certain that in those years overall, the Sonics actually did better with McMillan on the court than with Payton on the court. And since Payton was definitely a better offensive player, that leads to an inference that McMillan was the superior defensive player.

Of course, there’s some potential confounding factors here. For instance, maybe the Sonics did better with McMillan on the court because McMillan was more likely to be playing against bench units on the other team. Maybe Payton played more with the Sonics bench units than McMillan did (though that seems pretty unlikely IMO). Maybe this is a product of noise. On balance, though, I look at this and conclude that McMillan was probably the better defensive player. I might not come to this conclusion if the data was the same but McMillan didn’t have a strong reputation as a fantastic defender. But he did have that reputation, so the conclusion is really not at all implausible. One can point to McMillan being a bench player, but I think McMillan may have been somewhat like Alex Caruso—who is probably the best perimeter defender of this era, but just plays with an energy level that he likely can’t really sustain over longer minutes.

[kcktiny]

Given this data, it seems almost certain that in those years overall, the Sonics actually did better with McMillan on the court than with Payton on the court.

Those 3 seasons Payton was on the floor 76% of the Sonics floor time, McMillan 44% of the time. In other words 20% of the Sonics total floor time they were on the floor together.

That means that of the time McMillan was on the floor, 45% of his time played he played alongside Payton.

[lessthanjake]

Given this data, it seems almost certain that in those years overall, the Sonics actually did better with McMillan on the court than with Payton on the court.

Those 3 seasons Payton was on the floor 76% of the Sonics floor time, McMillan 44% of the time. In other words 20% of the Sonics total floor time they were on the floor together.

That means that of the time McMillan was on the floor, 45% of his time played he played alongside Payton.

Yes, they were sometimes on the court together. But the fact that they did better overall with McMillan on the court than with Payton on the court indicates that they did better in the minutes with McMillan on and Payton off than they did in the minutes with Payton on and McMillan off. And it’s hard to imagine that’d be because of any offensive advantage for McMillan given that Payton is pretty obviously a superior offensive player.

[kcktiny]

Yes, they were sometimes on the court together.

Sometimes? Dude - just what are you missing? Close to half of McMillan's minutes played over 3 seasons he was playing alongside the very player you are claiming your on/off data says he is a better defender than. You don't find that the least bit disingenuous? Bordering on being just plain inane?

indicates that they did better in the minutes with McMillan on and Payton off than they did in the minutes with Payton on and McMillan off

On top of that Payton as the starter and playing 37 min/g those 3 seasons was likely going up again opponent starters most of that time, and McMillan in the minutes without Payton against opponent reserves a far higher percentage of his time that did Payton in his time.

[lessthanjake]

Yes, they were sometimes on the court together.

Sometimes? Dude - just what are you missing? Close to half of McMillan's minutes played over 3 seasons he was playing alongside the very player you are claiming your on/off data says he is a better defender than. You don't find that the least bit disingenuous? Bordering on being just plain inane?

You’re not making any coherent point. Obviously what happened in the minutes they were on the court together can’t tell us anything about which one was better or worse defensively, since their plus-minus in those minutes was of course exactly the same. But if they did better overall with McMillan on the court than with Payton on the court, it’s definitionally because they did better in the minutes with McMillan on and Payton off than they did in the minutes with Payton on and McMillan off. And since Payton was pretty clearly a better offensive player, that would suggest McMillan was a better defensive player.

indicates that they did better in the minutes with McMillan on and Payton off than they did in the minutes with Payton on and McMillan off

On top of that Payton as the starter and playing 37 min/g those 3 seasons was likely going up again opponent starters most of that time, and McMillan in the minutes without Payton against opponent reserves a far higher percentage of his time that did Payton in his time.

Yes, you’ll find that in my prior post, I specifically mentioned the possibility that “maybe the Sonics did better with McMillan on the court because McMillan was more likely to be playing against bench units on the other team.” It’s a possible explanation for the fact that the Sonics did better with McMillan on and Payton off than they did with Payton on and McMillan off. It is likely true that McMillan was facing opposing starters less than Payton was. But it’s also likely true that McMillan was playing with Sonics bench players more than Payton was. So it’s not really clear that lineup effects actually went in McMillan’s favor. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did, but there’s a pretty sizable difference between what happened with McMillan on the court and what happened with Payton on the court, and Payton was definitely a better offensive player, so we’d have to posit quite a huge lineup effect here in order to not come to the conclusion that McMillan was probably the better defender (at least in those particular years).

[kcktiny]

You’re not making any coherent point.

But you are?

Imagine that.

that would suggest McMillan was a better defensive player... in order to not come to the conclusion that McMillan was probably the better defender

Dazzling argument. Very convincing.

Yet these very 3 seasons you mentioned your on/off data for, it was Payton that was named to the all-defense 1st team 3 straight times, got more votes (133) that did all but one other player (Pippen) over the 3 years. McMillan was named to just the all-defensive 2nd team twice.

Imagine that.

[lessthanjake]

You’re not making any coherent point.

But you are?

Imagine that.

that would suggest McMillan was a better defensive player... in order to not come to the conclusion that McMillan was probably the better defender

Dazzling argument. Very convincing.

Yet these very 3 seasons you mentioned your on/off data for, it was Payton that was named to the all-defense 1st team 3 straight times, got more votes (133) that did all but one other player (Pippen) over the 3 years. McMillan was named to just the all-defensive 2nd team twice.

Imagine that.

Alex Caruso didn’t get a single vote for all-defensive teams this year and was only all-defensive second team last year, but he’s actually maybe the most impactful defender in the NBA. Awards voting isn’t always right, and nor should we expect it to be. The voters have not watched even close to all the games the players played—almost certainly not even most of the games, and for some players they’ve probably watched only a small number of games. Meanwhile, in the past, they had less sophisticated information and data than we do now (and even what we have now is not perfect). Voters also tend to penalize bench players (such as Caruso and McMillan) in awards voting. That’s perhaps for good reason, since you can’t impact the game when you’re not on the court, but that doesn’t mean that when a guy like Caruso or McMillan is on the court he isn’t more impactful defensively than other guys.

[jalengreen]

You’re not making any coherent point.

But you are?

Imagine that.

that would suggest McMillan was a better defensive player... in order to not come to the conclusion that McMillan was probably the better defender

Dazzling argument. Very convincing.

Yet these very 3 seasons you mentioned your on/off data for, it was Payton that was named to the all-defense 1st team 3 straight times, got more votes (133) that did all but one other player (Pippen) over the 3 years. McMillan was named to just the all-defensive 2nd team twice.

Imagine that.

Alex Caruso didn’t get a single vote for all-defensive teams this year and was only all-defensive second team last year, but he’s actually maybe the most impactful defender in the NBA. Awards voting isn’t always right, and nor should we expect it to be. The voters have not watched even close to all the games the players played—almost certainly not even most of the games, and for some players they’ve probably watched only a small number of games. Meanwhile, in the past, they had less sophisticated information and data than we do now (and even what we have now is not perfect). Voters also tend to penalize bench players (such as Caruso and McMillan) in awards voting. That’s perhaps for good reason, since you can’t impact the game when you’re not on the court, but that doesn’t mean that when a guy like Caruso or McMillan is on the court he isn’t more impactful defensively than other guys.

Caruso was not eligible

[lessthanjake]

But you are?

Imagine that.



Dazzling argument. Very convincing.

Yet these very 3 seasons you mentioned your on/off data for, it was Payton that was named to the all-defense 1st team 3 straight times, got more votes (133) that did all but one other player (Pippen) over the 3 years. McMillan was named to just the all-defensive 2nd team twice.

Imagine that.

Alex Caruso didn’t get a single vote for all-defensive teams this year and was only all-defensive second team last year, but he’s actually maybe the most impactful defender in the NBA. Awards voting isn’t always right, and nor should we expect it to be. The voters have not watched even close to all the games the players played—almost certainly not even most of the games, and for some players they’ve probably watched only a small number of games. Meanwhile, in the past, they had less sophisticated information and data than we do now (and even what we have now is not perfect). Voters also tend to penalize bench players (such as Caruso and McMillan) in awards voting. That’s perhaps for good reason, since you can’t impact the game when you’re not on the court, but that doesn’t mean that when a guy like Caruso or McMillan is on the court he isn’t more impactful defensively than other guys.

Caruso was not eligible

Ah, good point. But the point about him only being second-team last year stands.