2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[payitforward]

Coming to terms with trading 6 and 18 for Ace....

Why would we need to do that? Or, to put it differently, I wouldn't do that, & I don't think Will would either.

But I also don't think we'd have to. If anything, for that matter, I'd prefer to trade down over trading up.

Maluach will be there at 6 & is very high-ceiling prospect. Or, if he goes above us, then one of Bailey, Edgecombe, or Johnson will still be on the board. In which case, I bet there's a trade available with the Nets to bring us all their picks for all our picks.

Now, ideally, asking too much, we make that trade with the Nets & Bailey is still on the board! At 8, I'd be comfortable taking a risk on a high-talent prospect, even if so far he hasn't really performed at a high level. We still might get Fleming & Jase Richardson at 26 & 27 -- either Yang or Raynaud at 36. Or Penda.

Doesn't seem likely, you're right.... But -- it does seem possible!

[doclinkin]

Peering through all the smoke, after trades and all I think the top 5 picks will be some order of:

Flagg
Harper
Edge
Ace
Maluach

Id snatch any of those guys if they fell. But likely if we want one of those guys we’d have to trade up to do it. Personally I’d happily sell an asset or two to climb up, and trust Dawkins and Winger to properly evaluate the cost.

But I think we will be bidding against Brooklyn who has more chits to throw in the pot this year. I think they leapfrog us to 5.

If so that leaves Tre and Fears at 6. Of the two, shrug, I can see the merits of both. I’m not 100% sold on either. Not that much above Essengue, Bryant, Sorber, CMB, Queen. All of whom I expect to be gone before 18, so I’d love to get a chance at them.

At that point normally I’d say trade back. But if it’s Brooklyn who jumped us I don’t see any likely trading partners I’d want to trade back with. I’d expect the front office to listen to bids at that spot since I don’t see either guy as their usual top targets. Despite secret workouts etc. There’s a chance a handful of teams in that range might offer a pick plus future assets to move up. Depends on the offer to me though.

If nothing materializes I would not be surprised if they took another hard left and picked a guy like Carter Bryant or Essengue. Young athletic defender with more upside than skill. Even though we already have 2-3 of that guy. We’d be using the strategy of ‘tank by redundancy’.

If not. I dunno. I think they’d take Tre due to size and our need for outside shooting. Try to trade up from 18 for one of the other players. And if unsuccessful take whichever guy falls from the list above.

Failing that: Beringer? Asa Newell? A dirty work energy guy on the inside who can rebound misses for putbacks and let Sarr play the finesse game as he builds strength.

Okay. I’m preparing my mind for a Tre + Beringer fallback scenario as a baseline. I mean not bad, just part of the usual ‘dream deferred’ scenario.

[closg00]

Someone mentioned in another thread that Skelator needs to revamp the lottery again, and I agree, perhaps the bottom 10 teams compete for the first 10 picks, then everyone else gets the rest.

[gesa2]

Doc are you that sure Maluach and Ace will go top 5? Things seem more opaque than that to me.

[doclinkin]

Doc are you that sure Maluach and Ace will go top 5? Things seem more opaque than that to me.

I sense a lot of silence around Maluach. Like nobody has mentioned they’ve worked him out. But scouts get a gleam in their eye talking about him. Like there’s stealth pixelation on all information about him. It’s a particularly loud kind of silence.

Ace has been evaluated as the #1 or #2 top talent in this draft for years. A pushy agent and a bad Rutgers team won’t shake him out out of the top 5. A few GMs will stay away. But the ones that love him love him and will see it as a chance to trade up. If a top 5 team doesn’t need him some lower team will go get him.

[payitforward]

Doc -- in your picture, Maluach would pretty much have to go at 5; he isn't leapfrogging Flagg or Harper, & I can't see him off the board before Ace or Edge either.

But, Maluach isn't going to Utah at 5!
Utah already has a terrific young Center & played their rookie backup almost 1600 minutes as well.

So that's the danger -- that the Nets trade w/ Utah & leapfrog usl

But... we are better positioned than the Nets to trade w/ Utah. Our 6 & 18 for their 5 & 21.

Moreover, if we don't trade up with Utah, the Nets would be better off trading with us than the Jazz. Plus, a trade w/ us would cost less than a trade for 5.

Overall, since Maluach is *definitely* not going to Utah, Brooklyn & the Wiz will wind up deciding what he's worth. They aren't going to let Danny play them off against each other that's for sure!

(Obviously, somebody could come out of left field with an offer, but...)

[doclinkin]

(Obviously, somebody could come out of left field with an offer, but...)

I think multiple teams will try to trade into the top 5. With assets and picks. Not this years picks alone.

Toronto, Brooklyn, and the Spurs all seem motivated to get Maluach. I’m not convinced Philly doesn’t take him. And you don’t think LaMelo would love a finisher with a 70% rate? Especially after trying to ship the medical hazard they have at Center.

And 15 out of 30 teams would be intrigued by Ace at the right price.

I don’t think the Wiz are offering 6 & 18 to move up one spot. They want to move up from 18 as well. We may be outbid for the top 5 picks. But still move up from 18. Or try anyway.

[TGW]

I can't wait for the collective implosion of this board when the Wizards take Kon Kneuppel.

[closg00]

I can't wait for the collective implosion of this board when the Wizards take Kon Kneuppel.

Ernie and Tommy are gone, this isn’t happening

[The Consiglieri]

Someone mentioned in another thread that Skelator needs to revamp the lottery again, and I agree, perhaps the bottom 10 teams compete for the first 10 picks, then everyone else gets the rest.

Leonsis and any other owner with balls needs to flat out start screaming about how totally ----ed this bull---- is. How many generational superstars d0 the Spurs get any time they fall on hard times? How many 1% chances hit in 15-20-25-40 years? How many franchises dead since Reagan, and Jimmy Carter need to get ----ed for a franchise that was in the finals, 1, 2, 5 years ago before this bull---- gets scrapped? Seriously? It doesn't prevent tanking (which isn't bad or a problem in the first place), and it punishes teams that have been hopeless for decades and it makes the league appear, even if it isn't, totally corrupt and more than willing to rig results for marketing interests when it comes to generational and elite prospects.

A good 40-60% of the NBA watching public thinks the league rigs ----. Seriously, do they think that's a good thing? Now add that the system doesn't work AT ALL, and it actively achieves the opposite goals of a league that wants to expand interest in the sport in the country to long sleeping and suffering fan bases.

For me alone, I will not be watching ANY NBA games in '25-'26, any of them, and part of the reason why is the lottery. I'm sure there are fans in Utah, Charlotte, and DC that feel the same too. Not you die hards, but plenty.

[NatP4]

I can't wait for the collective implosion of this board when the Wizards take Kon Kneuppel.

Put me on record. I prefer Knueppel to Bailey, easily.

[TGW]

I can't wait for the collective implosion of this board when the Wizards take Kon Kneuppel.

Put me on record. I prefer Knueppel to Bailey, easily.

You're not the only one. There are several insiders (including Givony) who have Kon as their 4th/5th overall prospect. To say he's not someone they're considering at #6 is silly.

[dobrojim]

(Obviously, somebody could come out of left field with an offer, but...)

I think multiple teams will try to trade into the top 5. With assets and picks. Not this years picks alone.

Toronto, Brooklyn, and the Spurs all seem motivated to get Maluach. I’m not convinced Philly doesn’t take him.

And 15 out of 30 teams would be intrigued by Ace at the right price.

I don’t think the Wiz are offering 6 & 18 to move up one spot. They want to move up from 18 as well. We may be outbid for the top 5 picks. But still move up from 18. Or try anyway.

For all the dismissive talk about Maluach, I could
definitely see him going 3--6, hopefully 6 to us.
Seeing him hit ~15 3s in a row in a workout video
didn't diminish that opinion.

edit - it's not completely clear how many he hit in a row.
But he does appear to be quite capable of shooting 3s

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TUZf85d21cE

[AFM]

I can't wait for the collective implosion of this board when the Wizards take Kon Kneuppel.

That’s not Kon Kneuppel. That’s literally a random white guy that works at Trader Joe’s.

[NatP4]

Put me on record. I prefer Knueppel to Bailey, easily.

You're not the only one. There are several insiders (including Givony) who have Kon as their 4th/5th overall prospect. To say he's not someone they're considering at #6 is silly.

Another one:

Read on Twitter

[AFM]

Johnson Bailey Fears even Maluach I am cool with. KK would be a disaster. I would officially turn in my Cult Of Dawkins membership at that point

[awolfinwater]

As opposed to all the noise from various "sources", this is a look at the current betting market for each draft position for the first 6 picks.

1. Flagg -50,000 (lock)
2. Harper -5,000 (lock)
3.

Edgecombe -250
Bailey +400

4.

Kneuppel +180
Bailey +300

5.

Johnson +180
Bailey +300

6.

Bailey +275
Fears +300
Maluach +400

Two days out from the draft and Vegas has Bailey as most likely pick, closely followed by Fears, and Maluach.

Just below this three are Kneuppel, Johnson, and Essengue in the +550 / +600 range.

I'd be okay with any of Bailey, Fears, or Maluach but lean towards Maluach because of the raw upside potential. While I do think Fears is the only one of these three with an elite skill (his handle), the size and lack of finishing around the rim worries me. For Bailey, he seems to have worlds of talent but that shot selection just screams low bball IQ to me. I guess Kelly Oubre eventually figured it out but I have concerns bringing in that mentality to our young team.

[TGW]

Johnson Bailey Fears even Maluach I am cool with. KK would be a disaster. I would officially turn in my Cult Of Dawkins membership at that point

I can't wait for Wednesday. This is going to be worst than the board the day after the lottery.

[AFM]

Chat GPT asked me who my “nightmare pick” at 6 is and I said KK.

This was its response:

Kon Kneuppel

No, you absolutely do not have to explain why. But I’ll say it for the record:
• Unathletic gym rat vibes
• Looks like he was created in a Duke lab to sell insurance in four years
• Zero defensive upside
• Only thing he does well is shoot set shots… off-ball… on a team that can’t generate space
• Basically Corey Kispert 2.0, if Kispert had even less lateral quickness

If the Wizards take him at #6, it’ll be the most Wizards pick since Jan Veselý. Like, why go for upside when you can just draft a safe 8th man for a G-League team?

I didn’t mention Vesely or Kispert once, it just knows…

[Rafael122]

Latest ESPN mock:

6 - Ace Bailey
18 - Liam McNeeley
40 - Bogoljub Markovic

They have Queen going to OKC which would just be an embarrassment of riches.