What rORtg/rDRtg do you think a healthy 2025-26 HOU can produce?

[FrodoBaggins]

It's obviously early days, and we haven't seen what other potential trades, draft selections, & FA signings might also go down. HOU gets an elite scorer, shooter, and shotmaker with the addition of Durant—qualities the Rockets have desperately needed. Kevin may not be as good as he once was, but his conditional value to this team should be high.

They lose Green, Brooks, and a rookie (10th pick) who probably wouldn't have gotten much playing time.

What's 2026 look like for Houston on offense & defense? They were +0.8 on offense and -3.7 on defense this season.

[FrodoBaggins]

Had some fun with the numbers:

I swapped out Jalen Green's 21.0 ppg on 54.4 TS% for Kevin Durant's 26.6 on 64.2, adjusted for 82 games and true shot attempts (TSA), and added +302 points to HOU's season total of 9372. 9674 pts/82 games for a 117.97 ppg total. Call it 118. Then, 118 ppg/98.6 pace = 1.197 x 100 = 119.7 ORtg. That's +4.4 on 2024-25 HOU's 115.3 (+0.8), and a +5.2 rORtg.

Durant's obviously not going to play 82 games, but it's cool to see the numeric difference an elite volume scorer has on a team's bottom line versus a very bad one. Addition by subtraction, and addition by... addition. Big net swing.

[Dr Positivity]

Udoka is a defensive coach so I expect that to be their strength again.

[FrodoBaggins]

Udoka is a defensive coach so I expect that to be their strength again.

I agree. I also think Durant's EFG% boost will help the defense. 2024-25 HOU was a horrific 23rd in EFG%. They'll have a better offense-defense balance, for sure.

[Djoker]

I agree that this roster fits Durant very well. They could be a very good team next year maybe even a real contender if the pieces gel and they stay healthy. I don't think old KD has a huge impact nor is he a guy you can expect to play anywhere close to 82 games so offense probably improves by 2 points to like +3 rORtg. But having him in the PS makes them much more dangerous.

[FrodoBaggins]

I agree that this roster fits Durant very well. They could be a very good team next year maybe even a real contender if the pieces gel and they stay healthy. I don't think old KD has a huge impact nor is he a guy you can expect to play anywhere close to 82 games so offense probably improves by 2 points to like +3 rORtg. But having him in the PS makes them much more dangerous.

+3 sounds about right. +3 on offense and -3 to -4 on defense seems like a realistic outcome. Something potentially like 2021-22 PHX (+2.8 off; -4.7 def) in the RS if all goes well.

[tsherkin]

+3 sounds about right. +3 on offense and -3 to -4 on defense seems like a realistic outcome. Something potentially like 2021-22 PHX (+2.8 off; -4.7 def) in the RS if all goes well.

There were 6 teams in the league this year at +3 or better rORTG. Will be interesting to see if the Rockets can crack that level. They were what, +0.8 this year?

Are we thinking KD at his age and with his health is going to make that large an impact? Phoenix was like a +0.7 offense with him playing 62 games alongside 75 games from Booker. His raw on/off was +3.7 when he did play (relative to league average), and he's played 69+ games once since 2019.

Still... if he's any kind of healthy and producing at a similar level, that's around a +3 O-EPM type of player. It's been a couple years since he was a really meaty offensive impact player, not since he first arrived in Phoenix, but he's still pretty good. I'm actually quite interested to see what the Rockets look like.

[jalengreen]

+3 sounds about right. +3 on offense and -3 to -4 on defense seems like a realistic outcome. Something potentially like 2021-22 PHX (+2.8 off; -4.7 def) in the RS if all goes well.

There were 6 teams in the league this year at +3 or better rORTG. Will be interesting to see if the Rockets can crack that level. They were what, +0.8 this year?

Are we thinking KD at his age and with his health is going to make that large an impact? Phoenix was like a +0.7 offense with him playing 62 games alongside 75 games from Booker. His raw on/off was +3.7 when he did play (relative to league average), and he's played 69+ games once since 2019.

Still... if he's any kind of healthy and producing at a similar level, that's around a +3 O-EPM type of player. It's been a couple years since he was a really meaty offensive impact player, not since he first arrived in Phoenix, but he's still pretty good. I'm actually quite interested to see what the Rockets look like.

I'm seeing +1.7 for Phoenix last year (+2.2 in games KD played in)

[tsherkin]

+3 sounds about right. +3 on offense and -3 to -4 on defense seems like a realistic outcome. Something potentially like 2021-22 PHX (+2.8 off; -4.7 def) in the RS if all goes well.

There were 6 teams in the league this year at +3 or better rORTG. Will be interesting to see if the Rockets can crack that level. They were what, +0.8 this year?

Are we thinking KD at his age and with his health is going to make that large an impact? Phoenix was like a +0.7 offense with him playing 62 games alongside 75 games from Booker. His raw on/off was +3.7 when he did play (relative to league average), and he's played 69+ games once since 2019.

Still... if he's any kind of healthy and producing at a similar level, that's around a +3 O-EPM type of player. It's been a couple years since he was a really meaty offensive impact player, not since he first arrived in Phoenix, but he's still pretty good. I'm actually quite interested to see what the Rockets look like.

I'm seeing +1.7 for Phoenix last year (+2.2 in games KD played in)

Was looking at raw team ORTG on/off from b-ref, should have specified. And then yeah, +3.0 O-EPM from dunksandthrees.

[cpower]

I think they will have a SRS of 7-8, a jump from 5 this year. Still 2nd seed in the west and on 58 Win pace

[scrabbarista]

A thousand.

[Verticality]

How does one predict how much a team improves in these facets?