2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[lessthanjake]

I still find it difficult to parse how much OKC’s weird struggles this playoffs were due to inexperience or were actual flaws due to not having any elite 3 point shooters and general lack of offensive plan. Of course the shooter could be addressed easily (someone like Cam Johnson) but they would get bogged down into the mud way too often with only SGA able to initiate any offense. Daigneault does not run a very creative or fluid offensive system.

It could just be inexperience and I could just be talking out my ass. But I didn’t like their offensive process this playoffs at all, and I think there are real structural questions to be asked of it.

I think it was probably mostly inexperience. They were actually a good three-point-shooting team in the regular season (ranked 6th in the NBA in three-point percentage, while being 10th in 3PA). But every rotation player shot worse from three in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, with the lone exception being the one veteran guy who had lots of playoff experience (Caruso).

[GSP]

I still find it difficult to parse how much OKC’s weird struggles this playoffs were due to inexperience or were actual flaws due to not having any elite 3 point shooters and general lack of offensive plan. Of course the shooter could be addressed easily (someone like Cam Johnson) but they would get bogged down into the mud way too often with only SGA able to initiate any offense. Daigneault does not run a very creative or fluid offensive system.

It could just be inexperience and I could just be talking out my ass. But I didn’t like their offensive process this playoffs at all, and I think there are real structural questions to be asked of it.

Points off turnovers is a major aspect of their offense. They just had the most 30pt games off turnovers in a playoff run. The games we watched their offense stink it up was when they couldnt generate a high amount of turnovers and were stuck in a halfcourt game. Sga isnt a great passer either, good playmaker but very basic and plays hot potato at times. Jdub and a lesser extent Caruso are their only other reliable ballhandlers that can put the ball on the floor and break down a defense and make plays for themselves or others. Everyone else needs shots and offense created for them so its easier to defend. Compare that w/ Pacers who have a bevy of capable ballhandlers making plays

[lessthanjake]

I still find it difficult to parse how much OKC’s weird struggles this playoffs were due to inexperience or were actual flaws due to not having any elite 3 point shooters and general lack of offensive plan. Of course the shooter could be addressed easily (someone like Cam Johnson) but they would get bogged down into the mud way too often with only SGA able to initiate any offense. Daigneault does not run a very creative or fluid offensive system.

It could just be inexperience and I could just be talking out my ass. But I didn’t like their offensive process this playoffs at all, and I think there are real structural questions to be asked of it.

Points off turnovers is a major aspect of their offense. They just had the most 30pt games off turnovers in a playoff run. The games we watched their offense stink it up was when they couldnt generate a high amount of turnovers and were stuck in a halfcourt game. Sga isnt a great passer either, good playmaker but very basic and plays hot potato at times. Jdub and a lesser extent Caruso are their only other reliable ballhandlers that can put the ball on the floor and break down a defense and make plays for themselves or others. Everyone else needs shots and offense created for them so its easier to defend. Compare that w/ Pacers who have a bevy of capable ballhandlers making plays

This is all true, but they will ultimately have put up the #3 RS offense and #2 playoff offense (behind only Cleveland, who had a higher playoff ORTG on the back of destroying the Heat). It could be better, but what they do does work well.

[Djoker]

Finals MVP starting '69, MVP '56 (I think Mikan/Russell/Wilt would join these ranks, chance for '55 Schayes)

'70 Reed
'71 KAJ
'83 Moses
'84/'86 Bird
'87 Magic
'91/'92/'96/'98 MJ
'94 Hakeem
'00 Shaq
'03 Duncan
'12/'13 LeBron

You forgot Step-

oh right

Yeah...

Also, I forgot Cousy won the '57 MVP, he would've had a pretty decent chance at the FMVP too I imagine.

No chance Cousy would get the 1957 Finals MVP after shooting 2/20 in Game 7.

[DCasey91]

I know it’s not much of a hot take, but I really think this OKC team is probably a major dynasty. Chet and Jalen Williams are in their age-22 and age-23 seasons. They’re almost certain to improve in the next few years, and maybe significantly. Meanwhile, SGA is young enough that he’s probably got at least half a decade more at a pretty similar level to this, maybe even more. They’ll have to pay Chet and Jalen Williams a lot in a couple years, but they’re so deep with good players (none of which are old—and some of which are young enough that they’ll probably improve) that they can lose people and really be fine. That’ll probably mitigate the effect of Chet and Jalen Williams improving, but OKC doesn’t actually need to improve on this year in order to be a dynasty. They were incredibly good this year and would’ve beaten every team the vast majority of times they’d play them IMO.

I would think that the Celtics could maybe be a counterweight to OKC. But Tatum will be out next year and may never be the same, and it’s not clear to me that Boston won’t blow the team up a bit in the meantime. So I just don’t know that we’ll ever get something from them that’s anywhere near as good as the 2024 team. If we did, then they could definitely compete with this Thunder team.

We dont know how much Chet and Jalen will improve tho. They should but by how much? Jalen was All Nba and All Defense and had a brief Finals Mvp push. He outplayed Ant in Wcf. Hes already really **** good. Is he gonna get much better? We'll see. For Chet he doesnt have the handles do expand his offensive game too much and hes already one of the best defenders. I think he'll improve but dunno by how much on offense. Then theres Chets injury history. Missed whole rookie season and missed 50 games this season.

Even w/ how great Sga, Jalen and Chet were this year, the depth w/ Dort, Ihart, Cason, Keinrich, Wiggins they straight up lose in the 2nd round if they dont make the Caruso trade who was arguably their 2nd most valuable playoff performer. Caruso himself has injury issues too missed 30 this season and has missed half or most the season a few times in his career

Even with all that they the OKC are a gluttony of talent.

Chet will certainly improve and so will JDUB though the stats from him may say otherwise. Both are a good 3 years away from their absolute prime.

Cason, Wiggins, Hart, Dort look how long before the age of 28 or above. When Caruso is your oldest player a dynastic outlook is sure to follow. Like even Joe, Enrich can't buy time any more because they are just too stacked

[Djoker]

Been reading some of the discussion and I honestly believe that some of OKC's offensive struggles was shooting variance. They just shot very poorly from 3pt land in the PS (13th of 16 teams) after being one of the best shooting teams in the RS (6th of 30 teams). There are some tweaks they could make on offense particularly finding a reliable secondary initiator besides SGA but watching their scoring draughts, it was honestly just a lot of missed shots that are very makeable.

[falcolombardi]

Been reading some of the discussion and I honestly believe that some of OKC's offensive struggles was shooting variance. They just shot very poorly from 3pt land in the PS (13th of 16 teams) after being one of the best shooting teams in the RS (6th of 30 teams). There are some tweaks they could make on offense particularly finding a reliable secondary initiator besides SGA but watching their scoring draughts, it was honestly just a lot of missed shots that are very makeable.

Is hard to know what is variance vs what is fragile shooting, same thingh happened vs dallas last postseason when okc had the best 3pt % in the league

Variance may have happened but I lean more to okc shooting not being yet resilient. Our best shooter couldnt get minutes on the floor (joe), shai 3pt ball was off and jalen couldnt buy a 3 for most of the run, even dort was bad before the finals after a 40% season

[Jaivl]

I know this is an uncomfortable thought for many, but a modern and more talented Jordan seeing their team fall off in the playoffs this way carries implications for the era-portability of the original article.

Who the **** cares.

[Doctor MJ]

Been reading some of the discussion and I honestly believe that some of OKC's offensive struggles was shooting variance. They just shot very poorly from 3pt land in the PS (13th of 16 teams) after being one of the best shooting teams in the RS (6th of 30 teams). There are some tweaks they could make on offense particularly finding a reliable secondary initiator besides SGA but watching their scoring draughts, it was honestly just a lot of missed shots that are very makeable.

Perhaps, but the OKC offensive scheme isn't anything particularly innovative (whereas their defense is absolute bleeding edge) and it's run by two guards (SGA & JDub) who aren't actually amazing facilitators. It doesn't really surprise me when such a scheme loses rhythm against playoff competition.

[FrodoBaggins]

Need Chet to swole up to 240 and develop a Porzingis post-up game to destroy mismatches.

[Dr Positivity]

Next year sets up for Okc's best team with player development but without salary cap kicking in. Houston has an opportunity to do what they did which is compete while Thompson is cheap, and maybe hope for a breakout from a player like Jabari or Whitmore while they're also on their rookie contract.

[falcolombardi]

Been reading some of the discussion and I honestly believe that some of OKC's offensive struggles was shooting variance. They just shot very poorly from 3pt land in the PS (13th of 16 teams) after being one of the best shooting teams in the RS (6th of 30 teams). There are some tweaks they could make on offense particularly finding a reliable secondary initiator besides SGA but watching their scoring draughts, it was honestly just a lot of missed shots that are very makeable.

Perhaps, but the OKC offensive scheme isn't anything particularly innovative (whereas their defense is absolute bleeding edge) and it's run by two guards (SGA & JDub) who aren't actually amazing facilitators. It doesn't really surprise me when such a scheme loses rhythm against playoff competition.

I dont necessarily disagree (as i said in my other comment that okc bad shooting woes are not mere bad luck) but there is a certain degree to which they were just missing decently open shots

The best defensive team and perimeter defensive unit they faced on paper was minnesota, tons of lenght, athletism and plus defenders with a strong and decently mobile center. They were the only team okc shot well against

The 2nd worst defensive team and roster they faced was denver, they more or less challenged okc to shot open jumpers packing the paint and playing zonr defense, and the gamble worked okc prolly had their worst shooting series vs the team that conceded them open shots more

If okc had not shot bad in 3 out of 4 series i would see the argument denver use of zone got okc out of rythim but honestly they were just missing badly for the most part

As it was the difference between shooting fine vs minny and like trash vs denver seems just variance, while the wider 4 series picture suggests somethingh beyond mere variance (inexperience, nerves, etc)

The only team i believe you can say got okc out of rythin to make them miss was indiana, who played a very okc-like defense with tons of full court pressure and a deep and tiring rotation of fresh legs defensively

[jalengreen]

OKC at home

- 11-2 (Gordon, Hali game winners), +19.9 MOV, 36.6% 3P%

OKC on road

- 5-5 (3-5 after R1), -6.7 MOV, 29.9% 3P%

[Dr Positivity]

It's also harder to hit 3s when playing at extreme defensive intensity.

[falcolombardi]

It's also harder to hit 3s when playing at extreme defensive intensity.

That doesnt explain the home vs away splits, specially because okc defense was better snd more energetic at home too

[Peregrine01]

They should shorten the season imo.

Less money for everyone involved, so they'll never do it.

Hardly anyone even pays attention to the regular season save for a few marquee games. With load management and the frequency of injuries, the vast majority of stars are only playing three-quarters of the season tops anyway. Why not just cut out a third of the games, make the regular season more meaningful, have higher participation from stars during the regular season and preserve healthier players for the playoffs? The NBA should take some notes form the NFL: less is more.

[parsnips33]

Only players with 2 rings in the 2020s:

KCP - Jrue - Caruso

[parsnips33]

Warriors Rockets on Christmas Day the people need it

[falcolombardi]

They should shorten the season imo.

Less money for everyone involved, so they'll never do it.

Hardly anyone even pays attention to the regular season save for a few marquee games. With load management and the frequency of injuries, the vast majority of stars are only playing three-quarters of the season tops anyway. Why not just cut out a third of the games, make the regular season more meaningful, have higher participation from stars during the regular season and preserve healthier players for the playoffs? The NBA should take some notes form the NFL: less is more.

That sounds great until you try the 60 game season and it turns out thst people dont gain more interest because a long season went to still be a lonh season and suddendly you lose 25% of your reg season stadium/local revenues

It would be a leap of faith for the league to absorb the losses and think it will grow the league long term

[jalengreen]

With the bag the NBA just got from the new media deal, I don't think they're as worried as fans are tbh. League is in a fantastic spot