2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[Benjammin]

I'm out on Fears at 6. Of the likely suspects, Ace and then Maluach if Ace isn't available.

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[9 and 20]

Makes no sense that Philly takes VJ with Maxey and McCain. I could see them trade down with Charlotte one spot and maybe pick up a 2nd rounder and then they get Kon.

Charlotte picks whichever of Tre or VJ they prefer, then Utah picks the other one. Leaves Ace Bailey there at 6.

[nate33]

Yeah, this is looking like the Wiz are locked in with Ace.

Utah is not taking him. They are going Fears or Tre. NOP will take whichever one falls.

Dallas: Flagg
SAS: Harper
Philly: VJ
Charlotte: Kon
Utah: Tre/Fears
Washington: Ace
NOP: Fears/Tre

Both Utah&Washington have been smoke screening to try and get NOP or BKN (both have multiple 1sts) to move up for Fears.

I think this is about right except I think Charlotte is planting their interest in Kon. I think they really want Maluach.

I think Utah might take Bailey in this scenario because Ainge is a big swing type of guy, but maybe the Bailey camp has made it clear he would be unhappy in Utah.

[The Consiglieri]

Chat GPT asked me who my “nightmare pick” at 6 is and I said KK.

This was its response:

Kon Kneuppel

No, you absolutely do not have to explain why. But I’ll say it for the record:
• Unathletic gym rat vibes
• Looks like he was created in a Duke lab to sell insurance in four years
• Zero defensive upside
• Only thing he does well is shoot set shots… off-ball… on a team that can’t generate space
• Basically Corey Kispert 2.0, if Kispert had even less lateral quickness

If the Wizards take him at #6, it’ll be the most Wizards pick since Jan Veselý. Like, why go for upside when you can just draft a safe 8th man for a G-League team?

I didn’t mention Vesely or Kispert once, it just knows…

Hilarious

At slot 6

1.My Please God No, not this guy:
Kon K (hilarious, I used to like a 2 hit wonder Canadian band called Kon Kan 36 years ago)

2. My: I'll be disappointed, and just hope my fears are wrong:
Fears
Tre "Rich Man's Eddie House" Johnson (courtesy of idiot Bill Simmons the other day)

3. Not bad, I like that.
Maluach

4. Celebrating hugely:
Acquisition of Harper via trade up or Bailey at slot or via cheap trade up.

[NatP4]

Yeah, this is looking like the Wiz are locked in with Ace.

Utah is not taking him. They are going Fears or Tre. NOP will take whichever one falls.

Dallas: Flagg
SAS: Harper
Philly: VJ
Charlotte: Kon
Utah: Tre/Fears
Washington: Ace
NOP: Fears/Tre

Both Utah&Washington have been smoke screening to try and get NOP or BKN (both have multiple 1sts) to move up for Fears.

I think this is about right except I think Charlotte is planting their interest in Kon. I think they really want Maluach.

I think Utah might take Bailey in this scenario because Ainge is a big swing type of guy, but maybe the Bailey camp has made it clear he would be unhappy in Utah.

I can’t see it happening. Utah took a big swing on Cody Williams last year and missed. The Bailey camp is trying to dodge Utah.

Would be best case scenario though. No way the Wizards pass on Kon if he drops to 6.

[The Consiglieri]

As-of today, I believe we will end-up with Johnson, Fears and Bailey will be nabbed ahead of us. Also, I’ll be waiting to see if the player we selected is traded.

I will say this, if Bailey goes 5, I will be beyond pissed, and will underline times 10,000 that all the takes that 5 or 6 didn't matter were bull----, and I said as much non-stop the past six months (I can't count how many times I annoyed people referencing the weird drops of guys tiered out to go top 3-4 and slipping the past decade), the reality has always been, you don't want to slide 2 picks past where a weird reach can happen, and I've been arguing that for ages. Some kept insisting that the flat nature of this layout rendered tanking irrelevant, but if Bailey goes 5th, it will be I think the 6th time in 11 years a guy not projected to go top 3-4 went top 3-4 and pushed a guy a slot or two lower since '15 alone. The 20% risk of slipping to 6th ALWAYS meant we had to lock in the #1 worst record.

It may prove irrelevant, maybe Bailey falls to us, or something totally insane like VJ falling to us happens (It won't of course, I think it's like 1000-1 against in the betting markets right now lol), but it doesn't change the fact that its essential to put yourself no worse than 1 slot below the best tier available in a tank season for the capacity of teams to make weird reaches in front of you. Right now, after the worst case scenario transpired because of course it did, sowiz and all that, we are at the mercy of Charlotte and more likely Utah, and that is why you tank that last game after Utah gifted you a chance at the prize. So, so, so frustrating. Praying that even though we botched the tank down the stretch it doesn't matter, but we're wizards fans, we know if it can go wrong, at all, it always will.

[NatP4]

Vecenie (updated mock) on Knueppel:

Knueppel is very highly regarded by NBA teams, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see him be selected in the top five. He projects to be valuable early with his ability to shoot, make decisions, process what’s happening around him spatially and play with the ball in his hands. I get that his game doesn’t look all that sexy, and in general he does not look like a top-five pick. But NBA teams are enamored with how well-rounded his game is. He does just about everything well and was a good defender this year at Duke despite his relatively slow feet. He’s strong through his chest and does a great job using angles to feed his man into where the help is if he needs it. Knueppel’s upside is something in the vein of Desmond Bane, whom the Memphis Grizzlies just traded for four first-round picks for all the reasons discussed above.

[payitforward]

Now i'm starting to get nervous. It's possible I don't like any of these guys.

I don't want Kon Knueppel. I don't care if he's good I just don't want him.
Ace Bailey looks like a high profile bust -- or might be.
Tre Johnson doesn't defend. Also can't defend.

I'll be holding my breath for Maluach or a trade down.

Can we take another French kid, or is it too weird? Trade down & get two more French kids?

49+ hours until the draft. I don't know if I'm going to make it. I'm going insane, cooped up in this laboratory -- insane I tell you!

They say I'm mad -- but I have a plan! I can't reveal it, that is true!

I would run through the streets shouting out loud, but I can't find my shoes. & it's hot outside. What am I to do?

[closg00]

How good are draft analysts at their job, good read
despite it being 4 years old.
https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/

[The Consiglieri]

Vecenie (updated mock) on Knueppel:

Knueppel is very highly regarded by NBA teams, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see him be selected in the top five. He projects to be valuable early with his ability to shoot, make decisions, process what’s happening around him spatially and play with the ball in his hands. I get that his game doesn’t look all that sexy, and in general he does not look like a top-five pick. But NBA teams are enamored with how well-rounded his game is. He does just about everything well and was a good defender this year at Duke despite his relatively slow feet. He’s strong through his chest and does a great job using angles to feed his man into where the help is if he needs it. Knueppel’s upside is something in the vein of Desmond Bane, whom the Memphis Grizzlies just traded for four first-round picks for all the reasons discussed above.

I see stuff like this and it just gets me wondering: Have these people any acquaintance whatsoever with NBA Draft history? We've seen these Kon picks a billion times. They rarely ever max bust, but they also rarely ever matter all that tangibly. The reason Kon is seen as valuable to GM's is three fold:

1.) He's got locked in value and a skill, teams know exactly, more or less, what they are getting.
2.) GM's don't like to get fired because they drafted a mega high ceiling and low floor prospect, they are terrified of risk.
3.) If you have a pick high despite being a playoff team, Kon is much more valuable as an asset because you can plug him right in. You do not have to develop him like Bailey or Maluach, you don't have to wait for him to physically grow, and age like Fears etc.

I get why he's valued, but the reality is, he's a very, very, very floor pick. Safe as ----.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Now i'm starting to get nervous.

I would run through the streets shouting out loud, but I can't find my shoes. & it's hot outside. What am I to do?

In this order;

1. A nice wheated bourbon, neat
2. Grey Goose Martini up with extra olives
3. A nice English or Scottish ale - from a widget can.
4. A Williamette Pinot Noir
5. A handful of Ritz crackers and some American cheese

[dckingsfan]

Now i'm starting to get nervous.

I would run through the streets shouting out loud, but I can't find my shoes. & it's hot outside. What am I to do?

In this order;

1. A nice wheated bourbon, neat
2. Grey Goose Martini up with extra olives
3. A nice English or Scottish ale - from a widget can.
4. A Williamette Pinot Noir
5. A handful of Ritz crackers and some American cheese

Wait, I thought we had two more weeks until the draft...

[AFM]

CBS is doing their draft live right now:

Watch on YouTube

They have us taking Kon and Beringer.... (I'm gonna vomit)

[dckingsfan]

I don't want Essengue @18, I hope he is selected earlier.

He is my guy for sure if he goes at 18. We need to book mark this one for the two of us...

But yeah, he goes before 18.

[nate33]

Absolutely no chance this team picks Kon Knueppel. None. It goes against everything they’ve built so far. They prioritize defense and length. They figure if they have good, smart, athletic players, they can teach them to be competent on offense. The only way they’ll accept a below average defender is if he is a #1 option on offense.

[Gig18]

Everything is all Guess-cu-lation at this point. This has definitely been the most exciting draft roll-up for me as a Wiz fan for decades.
I like Kon more than most of the rest of you. He doesn't look like a superstar. But what if he's a reasonable facsimile of Chris Mullin?
Just looking at what these new GM/brain trust folks have done in 2 years, they like youth, size, guys with well-rounded games and maybe a superpower.
From that, it seems like Ace, Fears and Maluach (maybe Tre too) all fit. The one thing they haven't done yet is draft a knucklehead... Not sure what that says about Ace...

[closg00]

I don't want Essengue @18, I hope he is selected earlier.

He is my guy for sure if he goes at 18. We need to book mark this one for the two of us...

But yeah, he goes before 18.

What is his position in the NBA and where would he get minutes on this Wizard team? Essengue may be successful, but we have more pressing needs for the 18th pick.

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

The more I hear about Bailey the more concerned I'm getting. But maybe I'm just overthinking it at this point.

[payitforward]

Now i'm starting to get nervous.

I would run through the streets shouting out loud, but I can't find my shoes. & it's hot outside. What am I to do?

In this order;

1. A nice wheated bourbon, neat
2. Grey Goose Martini up with extra olives
3. A nice English or Scottish ale - from a widget can.
4. A Williamette Pinot Noir
5. A handful of Ritz crackers and some American cheese

I did it & it worked! Now I con't dare poo Dill Wawkins hicks!

[payitforward]

Absolutely no chance this team picks Kon Knueppel. None. It goes against everything they’ve built so far. They prioritize defense and length. They figure if they have good, smart, athletic players, they can teach them to be competent on offense. The only way they’ll accept a below average defender is if he is a #1 option on offense.

You are right, this makes altogether total sense.