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Brewers/Pirates Series

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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#41 » by MVP2110 » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:14 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
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I'd think someone who uses WAR as much as you do wouldn't think to send down the guy leading the team in that category. He had 9 strikeouts and 1 walk tonight.


He's given up 13 earned runs in his last 3 starts(15 innings). Tbf I wouldn't have as short of a leash on him if we didn't have Henderson just sitting in AAA but at this point I'd rather see Henderson get a shot and let Patrick go to the Sounds and get right


He is right. His stuff was legitimately filthy tonight.


He got a lot of Ks but he also gave up a ton of hits and hard contact.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#42 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:15 am

MVP2110 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:It might be time for Chad Patrick to go to AAA and get right. Call up Henderson


I'd think someone who uses WAR as much as you do wouldn't think to send down the guy leading the team in that category. He had 9 strikeouts and 1 walk tonight.


He's given up 13 earned runs in his last 3 starts(15 innings). Tbf I wouldn't have as short of a leash on him if we didn't have Henderson just sitting in AAA but at this point I'd rather see Henderson get a shot and let Patrick go to the Sounds and get right

As far as his WAR goes, I think it's mainly a volume thing

Per B-Ref he had a 1.2 WAR heading into tonight in 16 starts. Quintana is at 1.1 in 10 starts, and Freddy leads the pitching staff with 2.2 WAR


I've always preferred Fangraphs, which has Patrick first and Freddy second (in nine more innings), but to each their own.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#43 » by MVP2110 » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:16 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
I'd think someone who uses WAR as much as you do wouldn't think to send down the guy leading the team in that category. He had 9 strikeouts and 1 walk tonight.


He's given up 13 earned runs in his last 3 starts(15 innings). Tbf I wouldn't have as short of a leash on him if we didn't have Henderson just sitting in AAA but at this point I'd rather see Henderson get a shot and let Patrick go to the Sounds and get right

As far as his WAR goes, I think it's mainly a volume thing

Per B-Ref he had a 1.2 WAR heading into tonight in 16 starts. Quintana is at 1.1 in 10 starts, and Freddy leads the pitching staff with 2.2 WAR


I've always preferred Fangraphs, which has Patrick first and Freddy second (in nine more innings), but to each their own.


They have their strengths and weaknesses, but I'll just say there's zero chance Chad Patrick has been better than Freddy Peralta this season
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#44 » by MVP2110 » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:17 am

Also just noticed Fangraphs says Tyler Alexander was worth as many wins as Jose Quintana this year. Yea I'm not trusting them with pitching
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#45 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:32 am

MVP2110 wrote:Also just noticed Fangraphs says Tyler Alexander was worth as many wins as Jose Quintana this year. Yea I'm not trusting them with pitching


Makes sense to me. Fangraphs uses FIP as the basis of their WAR calculations. BR uses runs earned per nine, earned or unearned. Quintana is a smoke and mirrors pitcher and the regression is gonna come hard for him. In the case of Alexander his FIP is almost two runs lower than his ERA and he's carrying a .342 BABIP. He was pretty unlucky.

If a guy goes six and strikes out 10, give up three hits, but those two are home runs, he's gonna have a lower WAR on Baseball Ref than a guy who strikes out four, scatters 10 hits over six innings, but only gives up one run. I'm gonna bank on the guy who strikes a lot of guys out, which is why I prefer FG.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#46 » by MVP2110 » Tue Jun 24, 2025 10:59 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:Also just noticed Fangraphs says Tyler Alexander was worth as many wins as Jose Quintana this year. Yea I'm not trusting them with pitching


Makes sense to me. Fangraphs uses FIP as the basis of their WAR calculations. BR uses runs earned per nine, earned or unearned. Quintana is a smoke and mirrors pitcher and the regression is gonna come hard for him. In the case of Alexander his FIP is almost two runs lower than his ERA and he's carrying a .342 BABIP. He was pretty unlucky.

So if a guy goes six and strikes out 10, give up three hits, but those two are home runs, he's gonna have a lower WAR on Baseball Ref than a guy who strikes out four, scatters 10 hits over six innings, but only gives up one run. I'm gonna bank on the guy who strikes a lot of guys out, which is why I prefer FG.


Yea, this is where we completely disagree. Nobody can have watched Quintana & Alexander this season and think they provided equal value. Nobody can have watched Freddy and Chad Patrick this season and think Patrick has been better.

Strikeouts are important but Brewers pitchers for years have outplayed their FIP for years because they are able induce weak contact. The Brewers rotation this year is a top 5 rotation by ERA, but by K rate they are a bottom half rotation. Someone like Jose Quintana has made a career by not having to strike People out.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#47 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:34 pm

Yeah, I'm typically a Fangraphs guy because it does do the right thing (i.e. K/BB being a major indicator) but it's not going to capture what the whole team is putting together. Jose Quintana with a **** defense behind him and/or being relied upon to go too deep into a game or whatever is not as valuable as how the Brewers use him and why they acquired him.

Fangraphs is great and my favorite website/tool, but it's also not a professional analytics department so it's always a little pessimistic on what the Brewers actually do because they're smart.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#48 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:44 pm

Also, our old friend Shane Smith is starting to cool off right along with Patrick. In hindsight, Smith is an MLB guy that at least could have helped us out early in the year. I still don't think we're losing a ton long-term by having let him go...he could be a guy that is in the All Star game this year thanks to the existence of the White Sox and then is a fringe rotation guy for his career.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#49 » by MVP2110 » Tue Jun 24, 2025 5:07 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:Yeah, I'm typically a Fangraphs guy because it does do the right thing (i.e. K/BB being a major indicator) but it's not going to capture what the whole team is putting together. Jose Quintana with a **** defense behind him and/or being relied upon to go too deep into a game or whatever is not as valuable as how the Brewers use him and why they acquired him.

Fangraphs is great and my favorite website/tool, but it's also not a professional analytics department so it's always a little pessimistic on what the Brewers actually do because they're smart.


I think this is fair. Fangraphs does a decent job of showing what a player might do in general on a random unnamed team. They don't do a great job of identifying the specifics of team fit and skillset. And this goes for both hitters and pitchers.

For example, Quinn Priester & Brice Turang are a great fit together. Priester induces a ton of ground balls and weak contact and Turang is excellent at converting those to outs. Priester would be less valuable with a worse defense behind him and Turang would be less valuable for a pitcher who doesn't need a great 2B. But together they are quite valuable as a fit.

B-Ref imo does a better job of showing why the Brewers are actually winning games. Turang & Durbin's defense, pitchers like Quintana & Priester's ability to induce that weak contact, etc. There is more to success than just hitting a bunch of Home Runs or striking batters out and the Brewers are excellent at finding those players and having success with them
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#50 » by Matches Malone » Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:13 pm

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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#51 » by Thunder Muscle » Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:17 pm

Kinda need this one looking at Skenes tomorrow. Would hate to lose a series at home vs Pittsburgh, let alone swept.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#52 » by Matches Malone » Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:42 pm

Cubs lost. Could really use this one now.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#53 » by MickeyDavis » Tue Jun 24, 2025 10:14 pm

Matches Malone wrote:Cubs lost. Could really use this one now.

I thought maybe they played this afternoon. You meant last night :)

Cool some games are OTA. They should do the same tomorrow afternoon. Very limited tix available. Tomorrow will be my 4th game but first tailgating of the season.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#54 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:06 am

Freddy playing with fire. Let's score some runs.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#55 » by Matches Malone » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:07 am

Nice play by Collins.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#56 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:24 am

Joey!!!!
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#57 » by Matches Malone » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:24 am

Laser shot! LFG JOey
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#58 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:38 am

WTF are they doing with Dillard added in.
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#59 » by Matches Malone » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:45 am

Hell yeah Durbin!
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Re: Brewers/Pirates Series 

Post#60 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:45 am

Durbin!!!!
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