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2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#341 » by Knightro » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:02 am

eyriq wrote:If you stack up college prospects on their freshman stats you'll be hard pressed to find four players with better stats than Jace. That's a good indicator. Also, great pedigree. I'm sold.


If he was bigger, I think he’d go in the lottery and possible in the top 10.

His statistical profile is very strong.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#342 » by drsd » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:04 am

jezzerinho wrote:If Miami contends it will have nothing to do with Clayton. Rookies are almost always negatives in the first year. Even top 15 players like Durant.

After years and years of Orlando drafting high, you'd have thought people would notice this fact. Rookies are terrible. The only archetype that really provides anything of use at all are the very occasional upperclassman shooters with some defence, who can come in and provide some bench firepower on a contending roster.

In general though, rookies suck and they dont help at all. They're development projects for future seasons.


Rookies are indeed terrible. That is objective. (it is very, VERY rare for a rookie to be a PER=15 player, meaning 98%+ of all rookies are below league average).

To the Bane trade, I think the draft-pick loss of four assets who will become the-next-Anthony/da Silva/Howard - type players is that such players are a dime a dozen on the free agent market.

My point: Orlando will be able to replace the rookies the team does not acquire with positive-value veterans. In general, vets are not terrible. After all.


...

Let's look at this year. Pick #16 will be for a player like Derik Queen. Well: a player like Jericho Sims is better to be had at basically the same salary line.
If the Magic is playing on adding a wing, we are talking about Sam Merrill as a FA over Nique Clifford as a rookie. And on and on.
Rookies suck. Low-end Vets do not always suck.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#343 » by basketballRob » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:11 am

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:If Miami gets Clayton and NAW this summer, they could contend in the east.

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They’re terrible.
I like Ware. They also have a lot of tradeable contracts

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#344 » by KillMonger » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:30 am

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:If Miami gets Clayton and NAW this summer, they could contend in the east.

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:lol:

They’re terrible.

Yeah......i was like
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we talking about Miami right?
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#345 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:34 am

Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:If you stack up college prospects on their freshman stats you'll be hard pressed to find four players with better stats than Jace. That's a good indicator. Also, great pedigree. I'm sold.


If he was bigger, I think he’d go in the lottery and possible in the top 10.

His statistical profile is very strong.

If he was 6’3” I think he’d be top 10 as well. That 6’1” really hurt him but dude still balled in the Big 10.
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#346 » by RichCollab » Tue Jun 24, 2025 11:55 am

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:If you stack up college prospects on their freshman stats you'll be hard pressed to find four players with better stats than Jace. That's a good indicator. Also, great pedigree. I'm sold.


If he was bigger, I think he’d go in the lottery and possible in the top 10.

His statistical profile is very strong.

If he was 6’3” I think he’d be top 10 as well. That 6’1” really hurt him but dude still balled in the Big 10.


Call me chicken s…. but don’t want to use our only 1st on a short guard. Yes, there are a few unicorn small guards but it still seems like a tall wall for Jase to climb.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#347 » by Def Swami » Tue Jun 24, 2025 1:02 pm

The problem with Jase Richardson is he’s small and plays small. He’s an okay athlete at best. He’s a good shooter but his release is quite low and slow at times. He was taken out of games in college. Not the worst prospect at #25 but I think he’d struggle quite a bit coming into the league.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#348 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Tue Jun 24, 2025 1:14 pm

Def Swami wrote:The problem with Jase Richardson is he’s small and plays small. He’s an okay athlete at best. He’s a good shooter but his release is quite low and slow at times. He was taken out of games in college. Not the worst prospect at #25 but I think he’d struggle quite a bit coming into the league.


It’s just wild for someone his size to still post a 62.4% TS and ranked 96th percentile per Synergy.

Per Synergy, 24.8% of his halfcourt shots came at the basket, which is a solid mark for a guard. He made those attempts at an absurd clip, though, converting 63.8% of those opportunities.

If that can carry over into the NBA then my goodness he’ll be quality.
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#349 » by Bensational » Tue Jun 24, 2025 1:40 pm

Ryan Nembhard is climbing my list after watching his brother do big things for Indy.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#350 » by Skybox » Tue Jun 24, 2025 1:49 pm

Bensational wrote:Ryan Nembhard is climbing my list after watching his brother do big things for Indy.


I'd absolutely jump on that if he's there at #57...
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#351 » by drsd » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:07 pm

Skybox wrote:I'd absolutely jump on that if he's there at #57...


Koby Brea at 46 and Jaxson Robinson at 57.
Only good things come from drafting Kentucky guards!
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#352 » by RichCollab » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:10 pm

Skybox wrote:
Bensational wrote:Ryan Nembhard is climbing my list after watching his brother do big things for Indy.


I'd absolutely jump on that if he's there at #57...


LOL

Ryan is another just 6’ guard.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#353 » by OrlandoDream » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:15 pm

Bensational wrote:Ryan Nembhard is climbing my list after watching his brother do big things for Indy.

If he is there at 57 sure. Anything before? pass. Im sure Utah said the same thing about Cody Williams.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#354 » by Def Swami » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:23 pm

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
Def Swami wrote:The problem with Jase Richardson is he’s small and plays small. He’s an okay athlete at best. He’s a good shooter but his release is quite low and slow at times. He was taken out of games in college. Not the worst prospect at #25 but I think he’d struggle quite a bit coming into the league.


It’s just wild for someone his size to still post a 62.4% TS and ranked 96th percentile per Synergy.

Per Synergy, 24.8% of his halfcourt shots came at the basket, which is a solid mark for a guard. He made those attempts at an absurd clip, though, converting 63.8% of those opportunities.

If that can carry over into the NBA then my goodness he’ll be quality.

All of that is true. You could do a lot worse at #25 in this draft. I just get nervous with any undersized guard in the NBA in 2025. There has to be something really outstanding about a player to take them at that size and hope they crack the rotation of a winning team. I could see him being a spark plug off the bench one day.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#355 » by Idiosyncratic » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:43 pm

jezzerinho wrote:
GelbeWand09 wrote:
basketballRob wrote:If Miami gets Clayton and NAW this summer, they could contend in the east.

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If Miami contends it will have nothing to do with Clayton. Rookies are almost always negatives in the first year. Even top 15 players like Durant.


After years and years of Orlando drafting high, you'd have thought people would notice this fact. Rookies are terrible. The only archetype that really provides anything of use at all are the very occasional upperclassman shooters with some defence, who can come in and provide some bench firepower on a contending roster.

In general though, rookies suck and they dont help at all. They're development projects for future seasons.


Yeah this is mostly true, but I will add that quite a few young bigs have been coming in pretty productive lately as well. Rookie Kessler and Lively were monsters. Edey, Clingan solid rotation guys. Ware, Filipowski, Missi, Post, Mark Williams and TJD were playable. All of those within the last 3 years, not many super high picks in the bunch.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#356 » by Knightro » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:09 pm

Latest mock from The Ringer

25. Orlando Magic - Jase Richardson, Michigan State, Freshman

Orlando sent out the no. 16 pick in the Bane trade, which might take some pressure off the 25th pick to be an immediate smash hit. Major contributions from Richardson are likely further down the road, but his gradual move into a bigger role for Michigan State this past season is a testament to how reliable he is at the basic things that a supplementary ball handler needs to do. It became difficult to keep him off the floor. He was indisputably good at shooting 3s off the catch with some movement, and he’s shown signs that he could more regularly create looks for himself. The hope is that his plus-6.5-foot wingspan, as well as Orlando’s edict of “giant people handle the ball,” offsets some of the concerns about his size.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Clayton 20th
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#357 » by basketballRob » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:14 pm

I think Clayton's agent would be upset if we traded up to get him. He has a clear path to starting next season in Miami.

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#358 » by Idiosyncratic » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:17 pm

I obviously would be thrilled if Jase is there at 25, but I'm not even sure Weltman wants any smaller players/potential weak defenders.

Who do we think Weltman is likely to take? Not much intel out there. I saw they had a long interview with Hansen Yang.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#359 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:37 pm

Knightro wrote:Latest mock from The Ringer

25. Orlando Magic - Jase Richardson, Michigan State, Freshman

Orlando sent out the no. 16 pick in the Bane trade, which might take some pressure off the 25th pick to be an immediate smash hit. Major contributions from Richardson are likely further down the road, but his gradual move into a bigger role for Michigan State this past season is a testament to how reliable he is at the basic things that a supplementary ball handler needs to do. It became difficult to keep him off the floor. He was indisputably good at shooting 3s off the catch with some movement, and he’s shown signs that he could more regularly create looks for himself. The hope is that his plus-6.5-foot wingspan, as well as Orlando’s edict of “giant people handle the ball,” offsets some of the concerns about his size.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Clayton 20th


I've somewhat settled in on Jase at 25 unless someone falls or they take Fleming and move Isaac.
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Thread 2.0 

Post#360 » by Knightro » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:52 pm

Food for thought on Jase...

Dating back to 02-03 which is as far back as the Basketball Reference Database goes on this stat, Jase Richardson had the 15th best freshman season according to BPM and the 3rd best freshman among guards in the entire database (minimum 20 games played).

1. Zion Williamson 20.1 - 1st overall pick in 2019
2. Anthony Davis 17.2 - 1st overall pick in 2012
3. Cooper Flagg 16.3 - 1st overall pick in 2025
4. Chet Holmgren 15.0 - 2nd overall pick in 2022
5. Karl-Anthony Towns 14.3 - 1st overall pick in 2015
6. Evan Mobley 13.7 - 3rd overall pick in 2021
7. Nerlens Noel 12.1 - 6th overall pick in 2013 (likely would have gone first had he not torn his ACL)
8. Brandon Miller 12.0 - 2nd overall pick in 2023
9. Lonzo Ball 12.0 - 2nd overall pick in 2017
10. Joel Embiid 11.9 - 3rd overall pick in 2014
11. D'Angelo Russell 11.9 - 2nd overall pick in 2015
12. Cody Zeller 11.7 - didn't declare, 4th overall pick in 2013 after sophomore year
13. Jaren Jackson Jr. 11.7 - 4th overall pick in 2018
14. Onyeka Okongwu 11.6 - 6th overall pick in 2020
15. Jase Richardson 11.6 - TBD

Getting a guy with that statistical profile at 25 feels like it would be a bit unprecedented.

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