Jcool0 wrote:MrSparkle wrote:Jcool0 wrote:
To move up lets say 4 spots would cost Chicago 12 + a future top 10 protected first. Bulls need exactly what Malauch provides being 7'2", rim protection. He also has the upside to be more then just rim protection and rim running.
That seems like an insanely risky trade for AK, given his history of 11-12 range picks.
If Malauch had a definitive offensive skillset I’d consider it, but he doesn’t. He’s an efficient finisher and putback/garbageman. You don’t trade 2 lotto picks for that.
Hey if you can figure out which guy dropping to 12 will be a future All-NBA level player, that would be awesome. But there have been whole drafts were 10-13 didn't pan out. So there is no guarantees.
I'd say there have been about as many All-NBA caliber guys from 11-16 as there are 5-10.
2017: Fox (5), Lauri (7) & Mitchell (13), Bam (15)
2018: Trae (5) & Shai (11)
2019: Coby (7) & Herro (12) * bad draft
2020: Deni (9) & Haliburton (12)
2021: Wagner (8) & Sengun (16)
2022: Dyson Daniels (7) & Jalen Williams (12)
2023: Cason Wallace (10) & Lively (12) * looking like a very weak draft, besides Wemby & Amen
2024: Clingan (7), Edey (9) & Matas (11), Ware (15) * TBD
Of course no guarantees at all, but if I'm looking at a ~15% "hit" regardless of that +/- 5 spot, I'm not trading two shots for one. Portland projects right around 15-18, so I'll ride those odds!
IMO, teams in the 5-10 zone get too cute, overthink the decision and skip the no-brainers, whereas scouts in the 11+ range have way less options to mull over, and focus on getting the best player left. There's been a late lotto star in almost every draft.
For comparison sake, my eyes (and most the numbers, besides for AA stat-stuffers like Edey) suggest to me that this year's 12th pick options are top-6 picks in the prior few drafts.
Noa > Salaun
CMB > Jarace, Hendricks, etc.
Fears > Dillingham
Carter > Holland, Brandon Miller, Cody Williams
Queen > Edey
Malauch > Bilal
Sorber > Clingan
Egor, even Saraf > Black
Etc.