Danny Double Dips a Real Doozy Draft - 3 & 5

[the_process]

Philly offers PG + 3 for Lauri + 5. Jazz decline.
Utah offers Lauri + 21 for PG + 3. Sixers decline.
If the Jazz can acquire a pick in the 9-12 range, then maybe Lauri + 10 gets a deal done.

Philly will add the Clipper 28 pick and Utah adds 21.

3, PG, 28 LAC 1st, four 2nds for 5, 21, Lauri.

I personally don’t think a deal can be had unless Utah is retaining both #3 and #5. There isn’t a large gap between 3 and 5.

There is. There always is.

It's not a subjective thing, it's not a tiers thing, it's a choice thing. 3 has a wider range of choice than 5. Always.

[Texas Chuck]

Philly offers PG + 3 for Lauri + 5. Jazz decline.
Utah offers Lauri + 21 for PG + 3. Sixers decline.
If the Jazz can acquire a pick in the 9-12 range, then maybe Lauri + 10 gets a deal done.

Really rooting for Ainge to get his guys here. The man has been known to move mountains.

What? No. Ainge is known for pretending to do deals then ultimately doing nothing.

So this is the tired meme, but in actuality Ainge has been one of the most active GMs in terms of making deals. Yes, there is a way over-representation of Boston in NBA media so we used to get a ton of Ainge almost "reports", but that was more about Boston media than it was Ainge.

It won't stop the narratives, but the reality is he makes deals. It's just any Boston rumors get way over talked about because of how much NBA media has Boston ties.

[Daddy 801]

Philly will add the Clipper 28 pick and Utah adds 21.

3, PG, 28 LAC 1st, four 2nds for 5, 21, Lauri.

I personally don’t think a deal can be had unless Utah is retaining both #3 and #5. There isn’t a large gap between 3 and 5.

There is. There always is.

It's not a subjective thing, it's not a tiers thing, it's a choice thing. 3 has a wider range of choice than 5. Always.

Well, if it wasn’t subjective we wouldn’t have a draft. Players would be assigned a spot and teams would just get the player assigned to their draft position. So there is an element of subjectivity. And while it is objectively true that there are more options at #3 than #5, I don’t think the price of taking on PG and losing Lauri just to move up two spots in a draft where there is not a consensus #3 guy is worth it.

I’ve never argued that there are the same amount of options at #5 as there are at #3. That would be insane. I’ve said it’s not worth it to me in this draft. So I am not sure why you think the criticism is even warranted because I am not making that argument.

Objectively there are more options at 3. Subjectively I am fine standing pat at 5 and keeping Lauri and not taking back PG who I have never been impressed with and think he has a terrible contract. I would want way more than moving from 5 to 3 if I am taking back PG.

If Philly is not ok with PG and 3 for Lauri and 21 that’s fine. We can move on. If Philly wants PG and 3, for Sexton, Collins, #21, and the lesser of the Lakers and Jazz 27 pick maybe there is a deal to be had.

This deal has been beaten to death. Seems like both sides aren’t reaching a consensus. If a deal happens it’s because Morey is a win now mode and if that’s true it’s probably going to be a deal a lot of Philly fans don’t like. And if I was a Philly fan I don’t think I would love some of these trades either. Fans are thinking even more long term than the GM’s. So we’ll see.

[the_process]

I personally don’t think a deal can be had unless Utah is retaining both #3 and #5. There isn’t a large gap between 3 and 5.

There is. There always is.

It's not a subjective thing, it's not a tiers thing, it's a choice thing. 3 has a wider range of choice than 5. Always.

Well, if it wasn’t subjective we wouldn’t have a draft. Players would be assigned a spot and teams would just get the player assigned to their draft position. So there is an element of subjectivity. And while it is objectively true that there are more options at #3 than #5, I don’t think the price of taking on PG and losing Lauri just to move up two spots in a draft where there is not a consensus #3 guy is worth it.

I’ve never argued that there are the same amount of options at #5 as there are at #3. That would be insane. I’ve said it’s not worth it to me in this draft. So I am not sure why you think the criticism is even warranted because I am not making that argument.

Objectively there are more options at 3. Subjectively I am fine standing pat at 5 and keeping Lauri and not taking back PG who I have never been impressed with and think he has a terrible contract. I would want way more than moving from 5 to 3 if I am taking back PG.

If Philly is not ok with PG and 3 for Lauri and 21 that’s fine. We can move on. If Philly wants PG and 3, for Sexton, Collins, #21, and the lesser of the Lakers and Jazz 27 pick maybe there is a deal to be had.

This deal has been beaten to death. Seems like both sides aren’t reaching a consensus. If a deal happens it’s because Morey is a win now mode and if that’s true it’s probably going to be a deal a lot of Philly fans don’t like. And if I was a Philly fan I don’t think I would love some of these trades either. Fans are thinking even more long term than the GM’s. So we’ll see.

I was speaking strictly of the pick value. 3 always has a significantly higher value than 5 because of choice.

There needs to be a NBA draft pick value chart like the NFL. Didn't Pelton make one of those?

[Texas Chuck]

It's not just choice though. Its any competent front office is not putting players this high in the draft into tiers and lumping them all together. They have a clear first preference, 2nd preference, 3rd preference and so on. Oh sure after a team trades down they make the claim they had the guy they end up drafting worth as much as the higher guy, but that's mostly spin.

The 3rd pick in this draft is worth more than the 5th pick by a non-trivial amount. We can debate exactly how much, but its not nearly nothing and no amount of citing tiers makes it so. Yet magic tiers where the players above our pick are no better but the players immediately after our pick are much worse appear every single year on this board like clockwork.

and everyone says no, no its not that. Okay this time its not that. Got it. Okay.

[SkyHook]

Spoiler:

There is. There always is.

It's not a subjective thing, it's not a tiers thing, it's a choice thing. 3 has a wider range of choice than 5. Always.

Well, if it wasn’t subjective we wouldn’t have a draft. Players would be assigned a spot and teams would just get the player assigned to their draft position. So there is an element of subjectivity. And while it is objectively true that there are more options at #3 than #5, I don’t think the price of taking on PG and losing Lauri just to move up two spots in a draft where there is not a consensus #3 guy is worth it.

I’ve never argued that there are the same amount of options at #5 as there are at #3. That would be insane. I’ve said it’s not worth it to me in this draft. So I am not sure why you think the criticism is even warranted because I am not making that argument.

Objectively there are more options at 3. Subjectively I am fine standing pat at 5 and keeping Lauri and not taking back PG who I have never been impressed with and think he has a terrible contract. I would want way more than moving from 5 to 3 if I am taking back PG.

If Philly is not ok with PG and 3 for Lauri and 21 that’s fine. We can move on. If Philly wants PG and 3, for Sexton, Collins, #21, and the lesser of the Lakers and Jazz 27 pick maybe there is a deal to be had.

This deal has been beaten to death. Seems like both sides aren’t reaching a consensus. If a deal happens it’s because Morey is a win now mode and if that’s true it’s probably going to be a deal a lot of Philly fans don’t like. And if I was a Philly fan I don’t think I would love some of these trades either. Fans are thinking even more long term than the GM’s. So we’ll see.

I was speaking strictly of the pick value. 3 always has a significantly higher value than 5 because of choice.

There needs to be a NBA draft pick value chart like the NFL. Didn't Pelton make one of those?

82games attempted to quantify it a long time ago. https://82games.com/barzilai1.htm

[SkyHook]

Philly will add the Clipper 28 pick and Utah adds 21.

3, PG, 28 LAC 1st, four 2nds for 5, 21, Lauri.

I personally don’t think a deal can be had unless Utah is retaining both #3 and #5. There isn’t a large gap between 3 and 5.

There is. There always is.

It's not a subjective thing, it's not a tiers thing, it's a choice thing. 3 has a wider range of choice than 5. Always.

Agreed. Teams are going to have weak and strong preferences between each player on their big board and, based on that, may ultimately decide that the cost of moving up isn't worth it, but they have to expect to pay dearly if they decide that they must try to move from 3 to 5.

I don't think it's worth paying the (sure to be) high cost in this case as my preferences are weak here. Not saying that's the Jazz FO mentality in this situation.

[ReggiesKnicks]

There needs to be an NBA draft pick value chart like the NFL. Didn't Pelton make one of those?

It is incredibly difficult to do this because of a few key factors.

1) Number of draft picks in the draft
2) The number of players who play in the NFL compared to the NBA

The 2025 NFL draft consisted of 257 players in 2025 alone. The 2025 NBA draft will have...checks notes...59 draft picks.

An NFL team has 30-33 full-time starters (11 Offense, 11 Defense, 10-13 Special Teams), an NBA team has 5 starters and at most 10-11 players who get regular minutes. An NFL team may have 40+ rotation players.

In layman's terms, we have a lot more data on football players from the draft and can more easily define groups/tiers by draft pick. The NBA draft just doesn't have the depth or numbers to accurately compile value charts.

The important thing to remember about any draft in sports, especially the NBA, is the relationship between impact (or goodness) a player has in a draft and the draft position is a Y = A - (B) * ln(x) relationship. Meaning, there is a dramatic drop-off at the beginning of the draft, which then flattens out as the draft progresses.

[Daddy 801]

It's not just choice though. Its any competent front office is not putting players this high in the draft into tiers and lumping them all together. They have a clear first preference, 2nd preference, 3rd preference and so on. Oh sure after a team trades down they make the claim they had the guy they end up drafting worth as much as the higher guy, but that's mostly spin.

The 3rd pick in this draft is worth more than the 5th pick by a non-trivial amount. We can debate exactly how much, but its not nearly nothing and no amount of citing tiers makes it so. Yet magic tiers where the players above our pick are no better but the players immediately after our pick are much worse appear every single year on this board like clockwork.

and everyone says no, no its not that. Okay this time its not that. Got it. Okay.

But this does not take into account each team has a different tier. So in a draft without a consensus #3 moving up spots has value…but how much value. If the Jazz have Ace at three and his shenanigans means he drops no point in trading up. If Utah wants Tre, Edge, or Fierce and they know they can get their guy….why take on PG’s contract and lose Lauri when they can get their guy? And while any adequate front office has a clear list of 1-30 there would still be tiers in the sense of what it’s worth to trade for, what to give up, what to accept back, etc.

I just don’t think taking back PG and trading Lauri is even close to just moving up two spots.

[BK_2020]

Really rooting for Ainge to get his guys here. The man has been known to move mountains.

What? No. Ainge is known for pretending to do deals then ultimately doing nothing.

Fultz - Tatum
Gobert
Donovan Mitchell
More recently 3 1sts for Suns unprotected

Those are huge deals.

They are all deals going in the other direction, trading good players for assets, not trading assets to land talent. Doesn't mean he won't do a trade like that but he does not have the reputation of a guy who "moves mountains" to get players he wants, and listing a bunch of trades where he did not do that doesn't quite show that his reputation is undeserved.

[MasterIchiro]

What? No. Ainge is known for pretending to do deals then ultimately doing nothing.

Fultz - Tatum
Gobert
Donovan Mitchell
More recently 3 1sts for Suns unprotected

Those are huge deals.

They are all deals going in the other direction, trading good players for assets, not trading assets to land talent. Doesn't mean he won't do a trade like that but he does not have the reputation of a guy who "moves mountains" to get players he wants, and listing a bunch of trades where he did not do that doesn't quite show that his reputation is undeserved.

That is not what you said originally.

Ainge is known for pretending to do deals then ultimately doing nothing