MoneyBall wrote:Grew wrote:MoneyBall wrote:I have seen him play, and I've got serious reservations about the guy's upside. I can't draft a guy in the lottery primarily based on vibes and aura. How many smallish guards who can't shoot and have good but not great athleticism go on to become stars in the NBA? The success rate ain't good.
Then we just disagree. I believe in his shot. I believe in his speed with the ball being an elite athletic trait, lots of guys who are more athletic but can't get to spots because they can't handle it like Fears. I believe in his upside being among the highest in the draft, although I do recognize he has a lower floor compared to some people in his range. For me, he's a guy I absolutely would bet on, especially for an organization that has been looking for a game changing type talent. If he's there at 9, no way I pass him. There are more solid bets out there if all you want is a role player, but if Fears is on the board I would rather have him bust than use 9 on a solid 7th man type.
Fears can handle the ball, that's not up for debate. The problem is he's a poor finisher around the basket and can't rely on his jumper either. He turns the ball over a bunch and he's not a freakish athlete to overcome all those deficiencies. He's on the smaller side and he got picked on the defensive end.
I honestly can't think of a guard who got drafted in the lottery having all those weaknesses and still turned out to become an NBA star. I'm not trying to be cute here, I honestly can't think of anyone. You (or anyone else) could legit get me to reconsider if you can show me a list of players who meet that criteria.
He also has had a different trajectory than most anyone in recent memory. I'm not really the guy who compiles lists of what people did in college to compare them, the NBA is different.
There is no one who came out of high school early, was the leader on a tournament team from the best conference maybe in college basketball history, who had the highest useage of any freshman in the country.
I would rather bet on his ability to grow, to cut down on turnovers, improve his shot efficiency, and get stronger.
He has the tools to be something special if he puts in the work like he says he wants to.
If he didn't turn it over, shot 35 from 3 on the type of shots he took, and finished at the rim at a top of class type rate... Then he would go 2 ahead of Harper.
If I can get those tools and upside at 9. I'm pulling the trigger 10/10 times.