Shams: the ****? Simons to Boston for Holiday… real

Dame Lizard · Post #121 » by **Dame Lizard** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:33 am

For those saying we can flip him to another team. Jrue is a negative value contract.

Ant, on the other hand, was expiring. Ant had more value than Jrue.

Fair value would have been Jrue + late 1st round pick for Ant. I would have loved that trade. In the current form though, Cronin got fleeced.

dckingsfan · Post #122 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:37 am

Trail Blazers: C-

Patience is the most valuable commodity in the NBA. Despite the Blazers' second-half run securing new contracts for coach Chauncey Billups and GM Joe Cronin, this trade reflects urgency to get back to the playoffs after a four-year drought.

Holiday's contract, which pays him $104.4 million over the next three seasons, loomed over trade negotiations. Because of his versatile skill set and self-awareness, Holiday is unlikely to be a harmful player throughout that contract. But it's possible by the time Holiday reaches a $37.2 million player option in 2027-28 that he is no longer a starting-caliber player at age 37.

Already, there are worrisome signs. Holiday's usage dipped slightly last season to a career-low 16% despite Boston's starting lineup having less shot creation with Porzingis sidelined for 40 games. The hope was that Holiday might turn it up once the playoffs began. Instead, he averaged just 9.5 PPG while battling a hamstring strain, including four points on 1-of-8 shooting in his final Celtics game in Round 2.

It's more challenging to evaluate statistically, but Holiday didn't feel like the same difference-maker at the defensive end. Injuries made Holiday ineligible to end his run of four consecutive All-Defensive appearances and top-10 finishes in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Absent that, I still would have had White higher on my ballot.

Concerns around Holiday's age would be less important to a contender he could help push over the top immediately. He did it with Boston two years ago after being acquired from Portland in the Damian Lillard deal with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Blazers aren't that team.

It seems unlikely Portland would make this move without going 23-18 over the second half to flirt with a play-in appearance before running out of time to catch the Mavericks. That success was built in large part on poor opponent 3-point shooting that the Blazers will have a difficult time repeating. Teams shot just 34% from 3 against Portland in the second half, the second lowest in the league.

There's no doubt the Blazers improved defensively down the stretch. Their opponent's shot quality went from 13th-best in the first half to eighth in the second half (as measured by GeniusIQ's quantified shot quality metric that considers location and type of shot as well as distance to nearby defenders). But Portland's jump from 27th in opponent effective field-goal percentage in the first half to sixth over the last 41 games overstated the magnitude of that progress.

With Holiday and All-Defensive second-team pick Toumani Camara on the perimeter, plus the rim protection supplied by 2024 lottery pick Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have the potential to be a top defense next season. Without Simons, however, it will be much more difficult for Portland to field a competitive offense.

I could buy a win-now move for a team in the Blazers' position if they were in the East where the conference is wide open because of Achilles injuries to Tatum, Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton that will affect their 2025-26 availability. There's no such dynamic for Portland in the West. The Blazers finished tied for 11th in the conference and have to worry about being caught from behind by the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs, who both can expect better health next season.

Monday's post-Finals Power Rankings for 2025-26, already affected by this deal, had Portland 12th in the West ahead of New Orleans, the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. This deal probably pushes the Blazers ahead of the Sacramento Kings but still leaves them outside the West's top 10. A play-in spot, if likely, is not assured. And making the playoffs remains worse than a 50-50 proposition.

Holiday's professionalism and championship experience should benefit Portland's young guards. The trade would be graded differently if the Blazers were getting paid in draft picks by Boston for the privilege of saving $40 million in luxury taxes. Instead, the draft picks (albeit second-rounders) are heading the Celtics' direction, which doesn't seem to accurately reflect the difference in the two contracts.

In a worst-case scenario where Portland wanted to move on from Simons and hand 2023 No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson the keys to the offense, taking on Holiday substantially curtails the team's cap flexibility for 2026 and 2027. The Blazers could have extended the contract of shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe and still had max-level cap space next summer by letting Simons walk. That scenario is now off the table, and it's worth considering whether Portland would have offered Holiday his current contract as a free agent using cap space.

The hard reality of NBA rebuilding is the easiest way to short-circuit things is to push in too early, capping the group's potential in favor of modest success that eventually feels hollow. Trading Holiday alone won't do that for Portland, but it's not an promising indicator of the team's priorities.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45518013/nba-trade-grades-2025-26-breaking-most-impactful-offseason-deals

dckingsfan · Post #123 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:38 am

Dame Lizard wrote:For those saying we can flip him to another team. Jrue is a negative value contract.

Ant, on the other hand, was expiring. Ant had more value than Jrue.

Fair value would have been Jrue + late 1st round pick for Ant. I would have loved that trade. In the current form though, Cronin got fleeced.

Sadly yes.

Norm2953 · Post #124 » by **Norm2953** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:41 am

As I wrote earlier, if Jrue helps Scoot become NBA caliber starting PG in the league, I'm fine with this trade.

Wizenheimer · Post #125 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 1:14 am

best laid plans, not always best?

Read on Twitter

PDXKnight · Post #126 » by **PDXKnight** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 1:25 am

Wizenheimer wrote:best laid plans, not always best?

Read on Twitter

Plans are like eggs, sometimes a team lays a big fat egg and some teams seem to do it at least once every 1-2 years. Its not wonder the mavs and kings were the other 2 teams asking about jrue supposedly. 2 poorly run teams (Dallas got real "lucky" with the number 1 pick)

GEE · Post #127 » by **GEE** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 1:38 am

Assuming that the offense will be Deni's to run as a Point-Forward and looking at our best 10 players, the defensive side looks pretty damn good. Looking at the roster now compared to a couple years ago, I'm pretty happy with the new look. If Cronin can pull just one more really smart trade and make the right choice with our draft picks, by summer league we may look even better than today, but this isn't bad as is:

Holiday / Scoot
Grant / Sharpe
Toumani / Thybulle
Deni / RWIII
Ayton / Clingan

10-15 currently: Banton, Rupert, Murray, Walker & Reath

Not finished (I hope), but not terrible.

Butter · Post #128 » by **Butter** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 1:54 am

Wizenheimer wrote:best laid plans, not always best?

Read on Twitter

Well, if true, that's not good

JRoy · Post #129 » by **JRoy** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:02 am

I seem to remember him threatening to retire if he were traded here.

Blazinaway · Post #130 » by **Blazinaway** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:17 am

JRoy wrote:I seem to remember him threatening to retire if he were traded here.

Hmmm, trading Simons for pure immediate cap space is not a bad trade at all, fine with me if he retires, IMO he gets flipped and is part of another deal

Norm2953 · Post #131 » by **Norm2953** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:22 am

Portland might not mind if he retired but he's not turning down $104 million in salary

dckingsfan · Post #132 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:26 am

Norm2953 wrote:Portland might not mind if he retired but he's not turning down $104 million in salary

Yup and he isn't mentoring anyone either...

Blazinaway · Post #133 » by **Blazinaway** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:29 am

dckingsfan wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:Portland might not mind if he retired but he's not turning down $104 million in salary

Yup and he isn't mentoring anyone either...

I think we could find way cheaper "mentors", we have a coach who was a very good PG so he should suffice if necessary

Blazinaway · Post #134 » by **Blazinaway** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:30 am

Blazinaway wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:Portland might not mind if he retired but he's not turning down $104 million in salary

Yup and he isn't mentoring anyone either...

I think we could find way cheaper "mentors", we have a coach who was a very good PG so he should suffice if necessary. Also F the guy if he really does not want to play here that badly

Sinobas · Post #135 » by **Sinobas** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 2:59 am

I tried to find the light in this deal, but hearing it reported that he doesn't even want to be here makes me really hope he gets flipped.

The fact that Cronin not only did not get any picks back but actually GAVE them is just another embarrassing trade on his part. He saved the Celtics a lot of money by taking on Jrue.

GEE · Post #136 » by **GEE** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 3:06 am

Guess I spoke just a little too soon. F-it... Flip him. Wasn't Dallas interested... just give us Kyrie.

Sinobas · Post #137 » by **Sinobas** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 3:12 am

WTF didn't we make this trade instead?

Read on Twitter

oldfishermen · Post #138 » by **oldfishermen** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 3:20 am

2 thoughts.

Not going to believe the story until confirmed by Jrue, or, his agent.

Second, if true. Can the trade be cancelled? Not sure how this works, but according to reports, the trade does not become "official" until July sometime.

Dame Lizard · Post #139 » by **Dame Lizard** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 3:34 am

Sinobas wrote:WTF didn't we make this trade instead?

Read on Twitter

Because our GM isn't very good, tbh.

Not trading Grant last year after his seemingly unsustainable field goal efficiency, was a rookie error. I fear Cronin is going to make a big mistake tomorrow.

BlazersBroncos · Post #140 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Wed Jun 25, 2025 3:41 am

Dame Lizard wrote:
Sinobas wrote:WTF didn't we make this trade instead?

Read on Twitter
Because our GM isn't very good, tbh.

Not trading Grant last year after his seemingly unsustainable field goal efficiency, was a rookie error. I fear Cronin is going to make a big mistake tomorrow.

Niang makes 8M. Simons makes 27M. The KP trade was to save a lot of money this season.