2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[Arsenal]

Answer: Tre over VJ

[eyeatoma]

Hypothetical question.. Would you draft Jalen Suggs over Cam Thomas with the 3rd overall pick?

Let’s lay out the context by comparing their freshman stats side by side:

I get the Suggs reference, but are you comparing Thomas to Bailey or Tre?

Strictly between Suggs or Thomas.

Suggs 2024-2025: 17ppg 4rpg 3.7apg 1.5spg
Thomas 2024-2024: 23ppg 3.3rpg 3.8apg .6spg

K clearly what you are going for is that comparison. If it were actually the players you mentioned obviously Suggs, but the Thomas/Tre comparison is Lazy. Yeah Tre is mainly known as a scorer, but he's far better in the midrange, and a lethal 3 point shooter, which Thomas isn't, so Tre will be a lot more efficient, in which case Tre over VJ.

[Negrodamus]

Ace is going to be the pick and Morey will hold bidding between Wash, NO, and Brooklyn. Charlotte will take VJ, Utah will take Kon, Wash will likely take Tre and that’ll be the trade. Morey saves almost 4 mil in salary and gets the guy he’s wanted all along with some extra assets.

[Mik317]

if we take Ace its going to be hilarious right after

going to see a bunch of people gloating, bunch of people mad, then random news drops about him sitting out, about potential trades...just pure chaos lol.

[76ciology]

Ace is going to be the pick and Morey will hold bidding between Wash, NO, and Brooklyn. Charlotte will take VJ, Utah will take Kon, Wash will likely take Tre and that’ll be the trade. Morey saves almost 4 mil in salary and gets the guy he’s wanted all along with some extra assets.

My dream scenario. And we draft Kasparas.

I see what the Celts are seeing.
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[Iverson Armband]

The Celtics have nothing that should get them in to the lottery other than White or Brown.

[LordCovington33]

Answer: Tre over VJ

I agree but they won’t use the 3rd pick on him. Should trade down if that’s the case.

[Iverson Armband]

I’m not sure the Jazz don’t just take Tre at 5.

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

I get the Suggs reference, but are you comparing Thomas to Bailey or Tre?

Strictly between Suggs or Thomas.

Suggs 2024-2025: 17ppg 4rpg 3.7apg 1.5spg
Thomas 2024-2024: 23ppg 3.3rpg 3.8apg .6spg

K clearly what you are going for is that comparison. If it were actually the players you mentioned obviously Suggs, but the Thomas/Tre comparison is Lazy. Yeah Tre is mainly known as a scorer, but he's far better in the midrange, and a lethal 3 point shooter, which Thomas isn't, so Tre will be a lot more efficient, in which case Tre over VJ.

Spoiler:

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Well, if we’re going to look past archetypes and unto specifics, I don’t think Tre or Ace are as good a scorer as Cam Thomas. Cam put up 23 points on 17 shots per game at LSU (FT is the biggest efficiency driver for perimeter scorers) and was clearly the better on-ball shot creator, he never deferred offensively. He’s averaging 24 PPG this season with better assist numbers than Suggs, who, by the way, has a stronger shot creation profile than VJ.

[76ciology]

Personally, I think Was set themselves up to draft Bailey. Its just not a functional team to have both Poole and Bailey. It looks more like a reality TV duo.

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[eyeatoma]

Spoiler:

Strictly between Suggs or Thomas.

Suggs 2024-2025: 17ppg 4rpg 3.7apg 1.5spg
Thomas 2024-2024: 23ppg 3.3rpg 3.8apg .6spg

K clearly what you are going for is that comparison. If it were actually the players you mentioned obviously Suggs, but the Thomas/Tre comparison is Lazy. Yeah Tre is mainly known as a scorer, but he's far better in the midrange, and a lethal 3 point shooter, which Thomas isn't, so Tre will be a lot more efficient, in which case Tre over VJ.

Spoiler:

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Well, if we’re going to look past archetypes and unto specifics, I don’t think Tre or Ace are as good a scorer as Cam Thomas. Cam put up 23 points on 17 shots per game at LSU (FT is the biggest efficiency driver for perimeter scorers) and was clearly the better on-ball shot creator, he never deferred offensively. He’s averaging 24 PPG this season with better assist numbers than Suggs, who, by the way, has a stronger shot creation profile than VJ.

Yeah yeah we all know your infatuation with Thomas, you have him on your fantasy team as well, and at one point were going to trade him to me.

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

K clearly what you are going for is that comparison. If it were actually the players you mentioned obviously Suggs, but the Thomas/Tre comparison is Lazy. Yeah Tre is mainly known as a scorer, but he's far better in the midrange, and a lethal 3 point shooter, which Thomas isn't, so Tre will be a lot more efficient, in which case Tre over VJ.

Spoiler:

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Well, if we’re going to look past archetypes and unto specifics, I don’t think Tre or Ace are as good a scorer as Cam Thomas. Cam put up 23 points on 17 shots per game at LSU (FT is the biggest efficiency driver for perimeter scorers) and was clearly the better on-ball shot creator, he never deferred offensively. He’s averaging 24 PPG this season with better assist numbers than Suggs, who, by the way, has a stronger shot creation profile than VJ.

Yeah yeah we all know your infatuation with Thomas, you have him on your fantasy team as well, and at one point were going to trade him to me.

OT: I have already dropped him tho Because my guys were injured and I realized I couldn’t keep him for this upcoming season. I think I cried at bed that night.

[phifans]

Sounds like there will be a bidding war between Was and Brk until the very end.

We should be stick with Ace Bailey until the last minute to maximize the value of this pick.

Let them know they can't just sit there and take Ace FOR FREE ！！

[76ciology]

Essengue to Raps. He only worked out for the Raps

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[76ciology]

Since the odds are highest we’ll be taking Edgecombe im trying to buy into his hype. Need to see some early Wade and prime Oladipo highlights. I was surprised to see Wade was about 6’2 without shoes with an 6’11 wingspan which helped a lot lol. They were 210 lbs at the combine as well.

Saw a Wade clip someone shared in the VJ thread at NBA draft board.

Wade and SGA are godtier of the archetype. Stats wise they’re not that far from VJ’s stats at the same stage.

Wade highlight (redshirt freshman)
Sophomore: 17.8ppg 6.6rpg 3.4apg 2.5spg 1.1bpg 53.7TS% 33.8FTr

Watch on YouTube

[Kolkmania]

Since the odds are highest we’ll be taking Edgecombe im trying to buy into his hype. Need to see some early Wade and prime Oladipo highlights. I was surprised to see Wade was about 6’2 without shoes with an 6’11 wingspan which helped a lot lol. They were 210 lbs at the combine as well.

Saw a Wade clip someone shared in the VJ thread at NBA draft board.

Wade and SGA are godtier of the archetype. Stats wise they’re not that far from VJ’s stats at the same stage.

Wade highlight (redshirt freshman)
Sophomore: 17.8ppg 6.6rpg 3.4apg 2.5spg 1.1bpg 53.7TS% 33.8FTr

Watch on YouTube

I still don't really see why VJ should be included in that "archetype". Both were fantastic finishers in half court and capable of making midrange shots off the dribble the second they entered the league. I actually think that VJ has a better catch and shoot three than those guys at the same age, but certainly not in the same tier as initiators.

[76ciology]

Since the odds are highest we’ll be taking Edgecombe im trying to buy into his hype. Need to see some early Wade and prime Oladipo highlights. I was surprised to see Wade was about 6’2 without shoes with an 6’11 wingspan which helped a lot lol. They were 210 lbs at the combine as well.

Saw a Wade clip someone shared in the VJ thread at NBA draft board.

Wade and SGA are godtier of the archetype. Stats wise they’re not that far from VJ’s stats at the same stage.

Wade highlight (redshirt freshman)
Sophomore: 17.8ppg 6.6rpg 3.4apg 2.5spg 1.1bpg 53.7TS% 33.8FTr

Watch on YouTube

I still don't really see why VJ should be included in that "archetype". Both were fantastic finishers in half court and capable of making midrange shots off the dribble the second they entered the league. I actually think that VJ has a better catch and shoot three than those guys at the same age, but certainly not in the same tier as initiators.

Yeah, but I see them as the same archetype, and I’ve already explained why and im actually sounding like a broken record. And there are many guards of this archetype, it’s just SGA and Wade are godtier. Other guys are Dipo, Westbrook, Mitchell and maybe Suggs.

It’s the same old story “just a utility guard”. Wade was even compared to Keyon Dooling. Oladipo compared to Tony Allen. SGA to Dejounte Murray or Ron Harper.

This was said about Donovan Mitchell:

Weaknesses: Mitchell is a much better leaper off of two feet than one foot, and his explosiveness on his drives diminishes when he has to elevate off of one foot, especially when forced to his weaker left hand … He also doesn’t get all the way to the rim as one might expect, as shown by his low two-point field goal percentage (46%) and below average free throw rate (4 attempts per-40), especially when operating against strong defenses … Despite a big 6’10 wingspan, his 8’1 standing reach is very small for an NBA 2-guard … Mitchell is still working on transitioning from the wing to the combo guard spot … He made strides as a playmaker in his sophomore season and operating out of the pick and roll … Even though he has improved as a shooter, Mitchell is still a streaky shooter, mostly due to his subpar shot-selection … He has a tendency to settle for tough, contested two-point jumpers, partially due to his inability to consistently get all the way to the rim, and also because of his average decision making skills … While he can make some of these attempts, it will not be a reliable way to score at the next level, and it will decrease his overall offensive efficiency, as it has in college …

But their usg%, ppg, stl%, FTr, FT% & ast%, tells you that they are more than utility guards. Some of them begin their careers without much on-ball wiggle, but all have basic dribble-pass-shoot abilities and eventually develop more advanced ball-handling and footwork over time. And most can improve because they got basic guard skillset and they play low to the ground (compared to upright wings or bigs). Guards in this archetype are all capable of getting to the free-throw line, taking one or two controlled steps, and either pulling up from midrange or finishing at the rim.

VJ’s last 16 games against top 50 teams
10 games
42% midrange
47.8% FTr
63% at the rim
36.7% 3pt%

Spoiler:

I call it the “OKC lead guard archetype”, built around spamming the 1-5 PnR formula. These guards thrive against deep drop coverage that respects their blow-by speed. They can punish it with a slightly contested midrange pull up or attack the big if he plays at the level of the screen.

What sets them apart is that they all play bigger than their listed size, whether through length or explosive athleticism, making them elite finishers once they get into the paint. Think Westbrook, Oladipo, and SGA.

Vj also has basic handles that he can work and develop, a good shooting profile and high release where he might improve his on ball shotcreation like a lot of these 2 way high motor players

Im not saying he will be as good as these guys but he is a good bet. A lot of it still comes down to player development, which nobody can foresee or control.

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[Iscull]

if we take Ace its going to be hilarious right after

going to see a bunch of people gloating, bunch of people mad, then random news drops about him sitting out, about potential trades...just pure chaos lol.

I want to apologize ahead of time for my temporary disappointment until the trade is announced.

[M2J]

if we take Ace its going to be hilarious right after

going to see a bunch of people gloating, bunch of people mad, then random news drops about him sitting out, about potential trades...just pure chaos lol.

Meh....I just want to be right about his place on the big board... Don't care who Philly actually ends up with.... Lottery is littered with talent.

Today's the day BABYYYY!!!

[Kolkmania]

Spoiler:

Saw a Wade clip someone shared in the VJ thread at NBA draft board.

Wade and SGA are godtier of the archetype. Stats wise they’re not that far from VJ’s stats at the same stage.

Wade highlight (redshirt freshman)
Sophomore: 17.8ppg 6.6rpg 3.4apg 2.5spg 1.1bpg 53.7TS% 33.8FTr

Watch on YouTube

I still don't really see why VJ should be included in that "archetype". Both were fantastic finishers in half court and capable of making midrange shots off the dribble the second they entered the league. I actually think that VJ has a better catch and shoot three than those guys at the same age, but certainly not in the same tier as initiators.

Yeah, but I see them as the same archetype, and I’ve already explained why and im actually sounding like a broken record. And there are many guards of this archetype, it’s just SGA and Wade are godtier. Other guys are Dipo, Westbrook, Mitchell and maybe Suggs.

It’s the same old story “just a utility guard”. Wade was even compared to Keyon Dooling. Oladipo compared to Tony Allen. SGA to Dejounte Murray or Ron Harper.

This was said about Donovan Mitchell:

Weaknesses: Mitchell is a much better leaper off of two feet than one foot, and his explosiveness on his drives diminishes when he has to elevate off of one foot, especially when forced to his weaker left hand … He also doesn’t get all the way to the rim as one might expect, as shown by his low two-point field goal percentage (46%) and below average free throw rate (4 attempts per-40), especially when operating against strong defenses … Despite a big 6’10 wingspan, his 8’1 standing reach is very small for an NBA 2-guard … Mitchell is still working on transitioning from the wing to the combo guard spot … He made strides as a playmaker in his sophomore season and operating out of the pick and roll … Even though he has improved as a shooter, Mitchell is still a streaky shooter, mostly due to his subpar shot-selection … He has a tendency to settle for tough, contested two-point jumpers, partially due to his inability to consistently get all the way to the rim, and also because of his average decision making skills … While he can make some of these attempts, it will not be a reliable way to score at the next level, and it will decrease his overall offensive efficiency, as it has in college …

But their usg%, ppg, stl%, FTr, FT% & ast%, tells you that they are more than utility guards. Some of them begin their careers without much on-ball wiggle, but all have basic dribble-pass-shoot abilities and eventually develop more advanced ball-handling and footwork over time. And most can improve because they got basic guard skillset and they play low to the ground (compared to upright wings or bigs). Guards in this archetype are all capable of getting to the free-throw line, taking one or two controlled steps, and either pulling up from midrange or finishing at the rim.

VJ’s last 16 games against top 50 teams
10 games
42% midrange
47.8% FTr
63% at the rim
36.7% 3pt%


I call it the “OKC lead guard archetype”, built around spamming the 1-5 PnR formula. These guards thrive against deep drop coverage that respects their blow-by speed. They can punish it with a slightly contested midrange pull up or attack the big if he plays at the level of the screen.

What sets them apart is that they all play bigger than their listed size, whether through length or explosive athleticism, making them elite finishers once they get into the paint. Think Westbrook, Oladipo, and SGA.

Vj also has basic handles that he can work and develop, a good shooting profile and high release where he might improve his on ball shotcreation like a lot of these 2 way high motor players

Im not saying he will be as good as these guys but he is a good bet. A lot of it still comes down to player development, which nobody can foresee or control.

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I get the sense of trying to "predict" a potential development curve based on those statistics. And based on all the reports regarding VJ's work ethic and his fantastic statistical IQ indicators, I can see him hitting a relatively high outcome.

However, all of those guys have shown either a much more fluid off the dribble pull-up jumper (either midrange or 3) and/or far higher USG% and AST% than VJ. Baylor have given VJ plenty of opportunities in P&R situations, but there's just not much to work with at the moment. No quick pull-up, no great handle (both in terms of creativity, but also very one-handed) to use his explosiveness to the get to the rim, poor finishing ability at the rim and just very basic playmaking reads.

When you enter the league with such a big deficit in all of these areas compared to NBA playmaking standards, I just have trouble envisioning him developing in a Wade/Mitchell/SGA role. Even guys like De'Anthony Melton and Alex Caruso were better playmakers in terms of creating shots for others than VJ. I am not saying that VJ will be worse than those guys, but just to give a sort of reference to his current skill level and what he needs to make up for.

I can see him turning into one of the best connective players in the NBA that can space the floor, efficiently punish close-outs, make some basic playmaking reads out of secondary actions and combining that with excellent defense and steal/blocks. That is an extremely valuable player, based on advanced stats perhaps more valuable for a championship player than a mediocre initator like a Tyler Herro for example.