2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

I still don't really see why VJ should be included in that "archetype". Both were fantastic finishers in half court and capable of making midrange shots off the dribble the second they entered the league. I actually think that VJ has a better catch and shoot three than those guys at the same age, but certainly not in the same tier as initiators.

Yeah, but I see them as the same archetype, and I’ve already explained why and im actually sounding like a broken record. And there are many guards of this archetype, it’s just SGA and Wade are godtier. Other guys are Dipo, Westbrook, Mitchell and maybe Suggs.

It’s the same old story “just a utility guard”. Wade was even compared to Keyon Dooling. Oladipo compared to Tony Allen. SGA to Dejounte Murray or Ron Harper.

This was said about Donovan Mitchell:

Weaknesses: Mitchell is a much better leaper off of two feet than one foot, and his explosiveness on his drives diminishes when he has to elevate off of one foot, especially when forced to his weaker left hand … He also doesn’t get all the way to the rim as one might expect, as shown by his low two-point field goal percentage (46%) and below average free throw rate (4 attempts per-40), especially when operating against strong defenses … Despite a big 6’10 wingspan, his 8’1 standing reach is very small for an NBA 2-guard … Mitchell is still working on transitioning from the wing to the combo guard spot … He made strides as a playmaker in his sophomore season and operating out of the pick and roll … Even though he has improved as a shooter, Mitchell is still a streaky shooter, mostly due to his subpar shot-selection … He has a tendency to settle for tough, contested two-point jumpers, partially due to his inability to consistently get all the way to the rim, and also because of his average decision making skills … While he can make some of these attempts, it will not be a reliable way to score at the next level, and it will decrease his overall offensive efficiency, as it has in college …

But their usg%, ppg, stl%, FTr, FT% & ast%, tells you that they are more than utility guards. Some of them begin their careers without much on-ball wiggle, but all have basic dribble-pass-shoot abilities and eventually develop more advanced ball-handling and footwork over time. And most can improve because they got basic guard skillset and they play low to the ground (compared to upright wings or bigs). Guards in this archetype are all capable of getting to the free-throw line, taking one or two controlled steps, and either pulling up from midrange or finishing at the rim.

VJ’s last 16 games against top 50 teams
10 games
42% midrange
47.8% FTr
63% at the rim
36.7% 3pt%


I call it the “OKC lead guard archetype”, built around spamming the 1-5 PnR formula. These guards thrive against deep drop coverage that respects their blow-by speed. They can punish it with a slightly contested midrange pull up or attack the big if he plays at the level of the screen.

What sets them apart is that they all play bigger than their listed size, whether through length or explosive athleticism, making them elite finishers once they get into the paint. Think Westbrook, Oladipo, and SGA.

Vj also has basic handles that he can work and develop, a good shooting profile and high release where he might improve his on ball shotcreation like a lot of these 2 way high motor players

Im not saying he will be as good as these guys but he is a good bet. A lot of it still comes down to player development, which nobody can foresee or control.

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

I get the sense of trying to "predict" a potential development curve based on those statistics. And based on all the reports regarding VJ's work ethic and his fantastic statistical IQ indicators, I can see him hitting a relatively high outcome.

However, all of those guys have shown either a much more fluid off the dribble pull-up jumper (either midrange or 3) and/or far higher USG% and AST% than VJ. Baylor have given VJ plenty of opportunities in P&R situations, but there's just not much to work with at the moment. No quick pull-up, no great handle (both in terms of creativity, but also very one-handed) to use his explosiveness to the get to the rim, poor finishing ability at the rim and just very basic playmaking reads.

When you enter the league with such a big deficit in all of these areas compared to NBA playmaking standards, I just have trouble envisioning him developing in a Wade/Mitchell/SGA role. Even guys like De'Anthony Melton and Alex Caruso were better playmakers in terms of creating shots for others than VJ. I am not saying that VJ will be worse than those guys, but just to give a sort of reference to his current skill level and what he needs to make up for.

I can see him turning into one of the best connective players in the NBA that can space the floor, efficiently punish close-outs, make some basic playmaking reads out of secondary actions and combining that with excellent defense and steal/blocks. That is an extremely valuable player, based on advanced stats perhaps more valuable for a championship player than a mediocre initator like a Tyler Herro for example.

Fraschilla posted a clip highlighting VJ’s on-ball upside against some of the top defenses in the country. I’m not saying he’s already a good pick-and-roll player, but he’s shown a solid foundation that can develop further in the league. Players like him can grow quickly as on-ball creators because they already have the basic dribble-pass-shoot skill set, stay low to the ground (unlike upright wings and bigs), and combine length, quickness, and athleticism.

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

I dont know where you got the “far higher usg% and ast% than vj”





* Melton averaged 11ppg on 17% usg% (junior) while Caruso averaged 8ppg on 15% usg% (senior)
*wade averaged 3.9apg as a Junior

[sodmoraes]

Usually shams start announcing trades and the picks on twitter way before the draft right? Just wanna know when i should stop watching the news and this board. I wanna see the draft live lol

[Stanford]

Usually shams start announcing trades and the picks on twitter way before the draft right? Just wanna know when i should stop watching the news and this board. I wanna see the draft live lol

I definitely wish we could go back to that.

[OleSchool]

Ace is going to be the pick and Morey will hold bidding between Wash, NO, and Brooklyn. Charlotte will take VJ, Utah will take Kon, Wash will likely take Tre and that’ll be the trade. Morey saves almost 4 mil in salary and gets the guy he’s wanted all along with some extra assets.

My dream scenario. And we draft Kasparas.

I see what the Celts are seeing.
[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

That's my boi!

Hate for him to go to the Celts

[76ciology]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

Another day. Another Bailey comedy.

[76ciology]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

I will throw a piece of intel out there related to Tre Johnson while we're on the subject. I don't think that the Sixers are taking him at three. I think the only scenario they take Trey Johnson is if they trade down.

I don't know if it just doesn't seem like there's enough out there from talking to people around the league that's like they are locked in on Tre.

<= Kyle Neubeck PHLY Podcast

Honestly, I didn’t fully understand everything he said, but the main takeaway was that we’re not drafting Tre at 3 unless we trade down. It also sounds like other teams aren’t that high on Tre, so if we really want him, we can likely get him later in the draft.

[zaz102]

Assuming no deals happen when the Sixers are on the clock and they have VJ as their BPA. Which strategy would you take?

(1) Stand pat at #3 and take VJ?
(2) Take Ace at #3 and try to trade him?

I think I'd just take VJ as I would be worried that the trade options wouldn't be enticing enough (i.e. too far of a trade back).

[Da Doctor]

The Sixers are playing Pompey like a fiddle

[Iverson Armband]

The Sixers are playing Pompey like a fiddle

Yep, wouldn’t be the first time either.

[Arsenal]

That's why we trade down to #8 for a KANGZ ransom. Then take whoever remains of Kasparas, Noa, or Tre.

[Arsenal]

ACE says he'd be blessed to be in Philly (2:25)! Now that the controversy and storm of fake news is over, we can take him no problem!!!

Watch on YouTube

[Arsenal]

The Sixers are playing Pompey like a fiddle

Yep, wouldn’t be the first time either.

Yes. Highly suspicious coming from a known Sixers mouthpiece. Exactly the message they want out if they're looking to trade down for Tre.

[sodmoraes]

Ace is coming to Philly! The Ace of Spades!

[LeonJordanJr24]

Favorite Ace for fit and upside because this team needs height , length, athleticism and defense badly. Ace allows PG forward combo to work. Also with Edwards and Oubre. A decent forward rotation is crucial vs teams like Houston,Atlanta ,Boston ,OKC , Knicks... Most good teams ...

[Foshan]

i'm about as fickle as Ace in this draft process.

I think i've convinced my self to be happy with however this plays out as long as we don't totally punt the pick for an old vet. Would absolutely love for us to get back in the later first round but i usually want that most drafts and it never happens lol

[ProcessDoctor]

Just remember, whatever name is announced at #3 may not be the player we leave the draft with.

[Negrodamus]

Just remember, whatever name is announced at #3 may not be the player we leave the draft with.

Doesn't matter, when Ace is picked, this place will need to be avoided for the 20 minutes he's a Sixer.

[ProcessDoctor]

Just remember, whatever name is announced at #3 may not be the player we leave the draft with.

Doesn't matter, when Ace is picked, this place will need to be avoided for the 20 minutes he's a Sixer.

I know Morey is bold, I don't know if he's bold enough to hold Ace hostage and risk being stuck with him. He's an analytics and character nightmare.

[Sixersftw]

I've hit Zen. I want Tre but understand the faults. I can live with VJ but he's just an archetype that really burned me in the past when evaluating.

If its Ace, I'm gonna give it a run. I was wrong about McCain and a thousand other prospects, maybe I'm off here too.

[the_process]

If the Nets give up a slew of picks to move up to #3, I'd move #8 to OKC for 15 and the '26 FRP.

Cannot do that, I recall early on that the 2026 pick cannot be traded back to us because of other trades made around it.

That applied because of BKN owning the 27 (now 28) 1st.

If the Sixers traded 3 for 8, 19, and their 28 pick back; they could then trade 8 for 15 and their 26 pick back.

They'd then have 15, 19, and control of all of their future 1sts. Which Morey would then go and offer for Giannis