Can someone explain Ace Bailey to me?

[iggymcfrack]

Here are some numbers from Rutgers:

1.3 assists per game
.536 TS%
.692 FT%
4.5 BPM
Team went 15-17 with the #2 draft pick also on the team

How is this guy a top prospect? Did he just pick up a basketball for the first time 2 years ago? What’s supposed to be good about him? Can’t shoot and can’t pass seems like a pretty bad combination for a wing.

[tsherkin]

Here are some numbers from Rutgers:

1.3 assists per game
.536 TS%
.692 FT%
4.5 BPM
Team went 15-17 with the #2 draft pick also on the team

How is this guy a top prospect? Did he just pick up a basketball for the first time 2 years ago? What’s supposed to be good about him? Can’t shoot and can’t pass seems like a pretty bad combination for a wing.

Size, athleticism, has a decent handle, tough shot-making. Can get hot from 3. People like scorers. Given his shooting ability inside the arc, that FT% is probably pretty deceptive, as well. 3P% deflated by his last 11 games. Shot 41.2% from 3 over his first 19 games.

Probably the basic set. Don't think anyone is confusing him for Lebron, but he'll probably be a pretty decent scorer in the NBA.

[iggymcfrack]

Here are some numbers from Rutgers:

1.3 assists per game
.536 TS%
.692 FT%
4.5 BPM
Team went 15-17 with the #2 draft pick also on the team

How is this guy a top prospect? Did he just pick up a basketball for the first time 2 years ago? What’s supposed to be good about him? Can’t shoot and can’t pass seems like a pretty bad combination for a wing.

Size, athleticism, has a decent handle, tough shot-making. Can get hot from 3. People like scorers. Given his shooting ability inside the arc, that FT% is probably pretty deceptive, as well. 3P% deflated by his last 11 games. Shot 41.2% from 3 over his first 19 games.

Probably the basic set. Don't think anyone is confusing him for Lebron, but he'll probably be a pretty decent scorer in the NBA.

Is there some reason to think the last 11 games are less representative of his skillset than the first 19? Was he injured or something? 143 teams shot better from 3 than Bailey last year. If “can get hot from three” is one of his big upsides, I’m not very impressed.

[FrodoBaggins]

Rashard Lewis or Michael Porter Jr. with more defense. Those are some high-end outcomes—SF/PFs who are lights-out catch-and-shoot but can't create off the dribble. Hasn't got the ball handling, passing, feel, IQ, awareness, and decision-making to be a Paul George.

[TheGeneral99]

He has the physical tools to be a star, but he seems immature, has horrible court vision, and doesn't bring the intangibles.

[tcheco]

Lied about his height, no workouts, being athletic gets you a long way, but dont count me in for this bandwagon

[zero rings]

There’s a huge segment of fans who long for the return of 2000’s era iso ball, and Ace Bailey is their guy. He loves to take a contested middie and he never passes the ball.

It doesn’t matter what his TS% or +/- is. “That boy nice”, as they say.

[tsherkin]

Is there some reason to think the last 11 games are less representative of his skillset than the first 19? Was he injured or something? 143 teams shot better from 3 than Bailey last year. If “can get hot from three” is one of his big upsides, I’m not very impressed.

I think basically the point is that they like his shooting motion, he's known for shooting, and worrying over less than a dozen games and his final percentage after a small sample isn't really huge.

Yeah, he's got as much bust potential as anyone, no doubt. But the draft is about potential, and his was exciting. Also, he was drafted a little over slot, I suspect, but whatever.

19 vs 11, though. You're literally complaining about percentages on the basis of 107 total FTA, and 136 total 3PA (and in particular, 39 3PA over those last 11 games). This isn't a substantive sample.

But yeah, there are certainly concerns about the breadth of his game and all that. But you asked for explanation, there it is. You're overfocusing on the small sample, and scouts are looking at his physical tools and his shot-making and are ostensibly excited about his ability to score at an NBA level. We'll see if he can drive left and dribble with his left hand as this plays out, heh. And what his shooting looks like by year 3.

[tsherkin]

Rashard Lewis or Michael Porter Jr. with more defense. Those are some high-end outcomes—SF/PFs who are lights-out catch-and-shoot but can't create off the dribble. Hasn't got the ball handling, passing, feel, IQ, awareness, and decision-making to be a Paul George.

MPJ would be a pretty good outcome, I'd think. I don't believe anyone is really expecting him to be Durant.

[Saints14]

They’re different players but it reminds me of the Jaylen Brown pick. A bet on pre-college pedigree, tools and flashes. I do think with Brown you felt better about his maturity level in getting to where he needed to be, Brown embraced being a role player his first few seasons while Ace it seems wants to be a top option right away. But unlike Brown there’s nobody that went after Ace that I would definitely rather bet on at his draft position. It’s a reasonable gamble to take and there are definite star outcomes there

[Wingy]

His name is Airious?

Gives me those OJ Mayo, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish vibes.

[DOT]

He takes a lot of difficult shots, and being able to have solid efficiency from the field while doing so at that age (he doesn't turn 19 for 2 more months) and having good size for a wing means you can project a lot of growth onto him.

[tsherkin]

He takes a lot of difficult shots, and being able to have solid efficiency from the field while doing so at that age (he doesn't turn 19 for 2 more months) and having good size for a wing means you can project a lot of growth onto him.

To be fair, he did not have solid efficiency, which is why the OP is questioning the selection. Part of that is the small sample and his 3pt shooting, and part of it is the sub-70% FT shooting, but overall, the sub-54% TS was definitely nothing to be excited about, for sure.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think he drops in this draft. Not that its considered deep but too many semi red flags imo for a team to actually take him in the top 5.

[Black Jack]

18 years ago....

[JustBuzzin]

OP pointed out his weaknesses and asked us to explain his hype.

Maybe turn on your tv and actually watch him play. He's considered one of the best scorers in this draft, has 2 way wing ability. On top of this he can get his own shot even with a weak handle. His potential is one of the highest in this class outside of Flagg.


Cmon man watch college basketball he was the #2 prospect in the entire country for goodness sake!

[DOT]

He takes a lot of difficult shots, and being able to have solid efficiency from the field while doing so at that age (he doesn't turn 19 for 2 more months) and having good size for a wing means you can project a lot of growth onto him.

To be fair, he did not have solid efficiency, which is why the OP is questioning the selection. Part of that is the small sample and his 3pt shooting, and part of it is the sub-70% FT shooting, but overall, the sub-54% TS was definitely nothing to be excited about, for sure.

That's why I said from the field

The free throw shooting is an issue, but 51.4% eFG with his shot selection is pretty solid. Not a 1:1 comparison, but Tre Johnson for example had a 51.1% eFG despite shooting way better from 3 on way more shots

So the thing with Ace is, if you can reign in his shot selection and get him to take more good shots and only take the bad shots when needed, plus get his FT shooting above 75%, he'd be efficient enough to potentially be a #1 option, cause you need to be able to hit the shots he hits, just you don't need to only hit those shots.

[Effigy]

I think he drops in this draft. Not that its considered deep but too many semi red flags imo for a team to actually take him in the top 5.

I guarantee he gets drafted in the top 5.

[FarBeyondDriven]

prototypical SF size/athleticism/length which is rare in itself. Then you add the rarer trait of dgaf and flashes of "dawg" and the fact that he's 19 y/o and you hope that with better spacing, teammates and coaching in the NBA he'll iron out his flaws. There's no doubt some boom and bust but his boom is higher than the others and when you hit on a two-way wing in the NBA it's franchise altering so teams are compelled to overdraft his archetype every draft. The Jazz can't attract FAs so creating a bunch of cap space for a FA does squat. They either have to draft someone or trade for a B level star because no A level star would accept a trade there. This is the small market's plight. They can sell Ace on usage, becoming a legend for a thirsty fanbase and they might build a statue of him someday. There's a very real probability that if he does hit he'll be sold off for draft picks and young players to repeat the cycle but that's a problem they're hoping to have.

[PlatinumState]

I think he drops in this draft. Not that its considered deep but too many semi red flags imo for a team to actually take him in the top 5.

Uhhh the draft happened yesterday man and he was taken #5