Making Sense of a Senseless Summer

[DC_Melo]

Well... this has been a summer. Simons was packaged with a couple 2nds for a declining vet on a whopper of a contract, and then we traded back to the 16th pick in the draft so we could select a prospect most analysts had going in the 2nd round. Oof... typing that out was depressing. On paper, those all seem like terrible decisions. In reality... those might still be terrible decisions. That said, there is a layer of logic to the moves, or at least my brain has tricked myself into thinking so, and that's what I'm here to dissect...

The Simons Trade:
Why I hate it- Wanna get away? Cronin might after the Simons trade. There are way cheaper Holiday options out there... Dad jokes aside, it pained me to read about the trade when it happened. Trading Simons seemed pretty much inevitable... in addition to his defense and hero ball style clashing with the team's playstyle/direction, he was seen as one of the few players on the roster (not on a rookie contract) that might actually have trade value around the league. Maybe he could be traded for a package that returned a promising prospect or an FRP or two. Well, womp womp... we got 35 year old Jrue Holiday at 100+ mil for 3 years. No draft picks returned. In fact, we had to send picks OUT with Simons to make the deal work. Ouch.

Why it might not suck- As many have noted, Jrue is a professional, has a defensive mindset that fits our team scheme nicely, and could potentially be an impactful mentor for Scoot. That's great and all, but doesn't make up for the fact that he's a declining player likely on his last legs that comes at a huge cost.

But there is hidden value in Jrue's bloated contract, a silver lining of sorts... While Holiday's contract will really hurt that 3rd year at $37.2 mil when he's 37/38, he's still a good enough player now to earn significant minutes this year. Likely, he will either start over Scoot or at the very least keep Scoot to his 25-30 mpg type role... when Scoot has contract extension negotiations open up next summer, his career production likely won't be something he can leverage much in the negotiations. And when Jrue's contract does expire, that opens up considerable space for the wave of extensions the team will be hitting the next few years. We aren't signing any major FA's anyway... might as well give that money to someone who can provide quality leadership, potentially reduce the cost of re-signing Scoot, and then clears off our books when we have bigger contracts due.

It really sucks we had to give up assets to move Simons for Jrue, instead of receive assets, but Simons likely didn't have great value. His contract expires next year and he will likely demand more than he's worth when it's time to resign, and he has been a spectacularly "meh" player of the past several seasons... 0.1, 0.2, -0.1 BPM the past three years. That's impressively consistent neutral production for a guy that will be demanding a hefty contract. His next contract will be a messy negotiation and one that I'm glad the Blazers won't be part of.

The Draft Pick
Why I hate it: I mean... nobody wants to be THAT team that used a mid 1st round pick on a projected 2nd rounder. Oh, and the player is still considered to be raw and not yet ready to contribute by most draft analysts.

Why it might not suck: I'm not even going to touch on the prospect's potential ceiling. It could be there, it might not, who knows with a foreign player taken at 16 we've never heard of before last night. The reality is that nobody we could have taken at 16, or 11, would have been a clear solution to any one position, and would have taken minutes away from our stable of young guards and forwards that need those minutes to continue developing. There comes a point where you can only develop and give minutes to so many prospects, and I think the Blazers are there. Scoot, Camara, Sharpe, Deni, and Clingan all need minutes. Having a project player we can develop over time that doesn't eat into the minutes of players we want to develop now actually makes a fair bit of sense. Would've been nice if we could've traded the 16 back into the mid 20's for even more future draft capital if our plan was to take him all along, but maybe the deal just wasn't there or the Blazers just liked him that much.

And the draft capital we lost in the Simons deal, we recouped and then some in this deal, with a future 2028 FRP and 2 additional 2nds... Best part is that future first is from Orlando... a team with some nice players but a solid history of underperforming and not keeping teams together. Who knows where they will be when the pick converts to us, but if history has a say, their best player will find his way onto the Lakers somehow.

So, while the trade and draft moves both caught me off guard, long term they could work out. Time will tell, but I'm curious to hear everyone's thoughts on how these moves will impact us going forward.

[Walton1one]

It won’t mean a thing POR will still miss the playin and some fans will totally be fine with that again, and make excuses for Cronin, again.

Can’t wait to see the next craptastic trade POR idiot GM makes

[Goldbum]

If we hadn’t made the Holiday trade we would have take KJ. Demin going at 8 really hurt our board. I personally don’t like the pick. If we got KJ and 3 future picks for 11 I would have been so stoked, but nobody that I personally know likes the pick and honestly that’s enough for me to hate the Holiday deal too. Would much rather have Ant (expiring), KJ and 4 seconds than Ja, Yang and 2 seconds.

[m0ng0]

Everybody wanted the team to swing for the fences and they did. Kids ceiling is unknown and he may not be done growing, a barefoot 7'1 and he is a pretty jacked 250lbs, great bbiq, good handle, creative offensive scorer and excellent passer. People don't like it because they didn't see it coming!!!! They could not wait until the second round because they didn't have one. I see him in the role Clingan had last year, keep Reath as a 3rd, dump Ayton for anything, maybe make rw3 a player coach type. He needs minutes and time to grow. Take deep breath and let's see what happens.

[oldfishermen]

Jrue was brought in to settle down the guard rotation, and help them develop. Jrue is not a win now move.

Baffled by drafting Yang. But he is not a win now pick. The coaches will need to work overtime just to get him on the floor to see what else they need to work on.

If the Blazers win more games, it will come from internal development, which is ongoing at all 5 positions. So some improvement is expected, along with a few more wins.

[BlazersBroncos]

Everybody wanted the team to swing for the fences and they did. Kids ceiling is unknown and he may not be done growing, a barefoot 7'1 and he is a pretty jacked 250lbs, great bbiq, good handle, creative offensive scorer and excellent passer. People don't like it because they didn't see it coming!!!! They could not wait until the second round because they didn't have one. I see him in the role Clingan had last year, keep Reath as a 3rd, dump Ayton for anything, maybe make rw3 a player coach type. He needs minutes and time to grow. Take deep breath and let's see what happens.

But how does it make sense long term? Both Clingan and Yang are position locked at C. We just invested back to back draft picks on non-switching bigs who can only play C. Best case we either invested 7 or 16 in a backup. And DC just had a really good rookie season.

What this really shows me is the FO is 100% invested in the idea we have long term starters in Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni. They dont think a hedge on any of them is really necessary. I think thats nuts.

[valleyman33]

I am also going to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. I really don't think there were any draft prospects available to us that made me excited. I will take Cronin at his word that they have been watching Yang for some time, and they have seen something that piqued their interest. With the exception of a few players over the years, the draft IMO is always a gamble. I guess I'm also into conspiracy theories in that Dallas going that far up in the draft seems very improbable. Of course, the big questions remain, we have 5 centers on the roster, which players are going to take a step up, and we can lose a couple of bad contracts. I can only hope the front office has a plan.

[m0ng0]

Everybody wanted the team to swing for the fences and they did. Kids ceiling is unknown and he may not be done growing, a barefoot 7'1 and he is a pretty jacked 250lbs, great bbiq, good handle, creative offensive scorer and excellent passer. People don't like it because they didn't see it coming!!!! They could not wait until the second round because they didn't have one. I see him in the role Clingan had last year, keep Reath as a 3rd, dump Ayton for anything, maybe make rw3 a player coach type. He needs minutes and time to grow. Take deep breath and let's see what happens.

But how does it make sense long term? Both Clingan and Yang are position locked at C. We just invested back to back draft picks on non-switching bigs who can only play C. Best case we either invested 7 or 16 in a backup. And DC just had a really good rookie season.

What this really shows me is the FO is 100% invested in the idea we have long term starters in Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni. They dont think a hedge on any of them is really necessary. I think thats nuts.

Remember when Nurk and Joker was a thing in Denver? Not saying it will happen but if the stars align who knows

[Case2012]

What doesn't make sense is this team needed shooting desperately and Coward, WCJ, and even KJ were there and we drafted a guy that addressed nothing and made us even more of a laughing stock.

Fleming is there in the second, for the love of god at least draft him somehow for the shooting and defense. So what if he's not a creator, he's the best shooter left and highly efficient, with a 7'5 WS who is highly switchable. He makes way more sense as a backup PF than any of our current players.

[m0ng0]

Could Portland still buy there way into the second round at this point? Could portland deal grant or ayton for a second or two?

[DusterBuster]

Could Portland still buy there way into the second round at this point? Could portland deal grant or ayton for a second or two?

I could see Rob Williams out for a second or two.

[m0ng0]

Could Portland still buy there way into the second round at this point? Could portland deal grant or ayton for a second or two?

I could see Rob Williams out for a second or two.

At this point any of those 3 for 2nds is fine with me, address other needs like shooting and balancing out the roster works fine by me. If we are going to let Ayton walk i would rather get him gone now so that Yang gets some minutes. Rw3 could be useful as a coach that plays his 20ish games and Reath is cheap

[Norm2953]

Let's see if the team makes a move for a player who can contribute to the team next season for otherwise
a less than enthused Jrue is the only addition to the team that thinks they can compete for a playoff spot
in 2025/26.

[DusterBuster]

Summer just started, it can get a lot wackier

[Chanse503]

Summer just started, it can get a lot wackier

Yeah we certainly don’t look as bad as New Orleans or Brooklyn.

[DusterBuster]

Summer just started, it can get a lot wackier

Yeah we certainly don’t look as bad as New Orleans or Brooklyn.

Eh, Brooklyn looks fine. 9 for Demin was a bit of a reach, but not terribly so. He was mocked around there for some time.

NO tho, whooo boy was that bad.

[BlazersBroncos]

Summer just started, it can get a lot wackier

Yeah we certainly don’t look as bad as New Orleans or Brooklyn.

Eh, Brooklyn looks fine. 9 for Demin was a bit of a reach, but not terribly so. He was mocked around there for some time.

NO tho, whooo boy was that bad.

I view what NO did as exponentially more insane than taking Yang at 16. Their draft makes our draft look like San Antonios draft.

[Walton1one]

I mean, giving up an unprotected first next year is pretty stupid, but I would bet on Queen being better than Yang, and he wasn’t a reach at that pick where Yang was 100% reach

NO git a player and threw away their 26 pick, Portland just threw away a 25 pick and if they miraculously make the playoffs, also will give up their 26 pick so I don’t think it’s exponentially worse because there’s a decent chance that NO could be better than POR next year

[m0ng0]

If he sucks won't you be happy?

[Walton1one]

If he is good, I will gladly admit that I’m wrong, but I am not happy because the odds are stacked that he is not going to be an NBA level player or even if he is he will be very marginal