Would you have traded #9 for the Pelicans package?

[CPT]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

I’ll trade our whole roster for a 14% chance at Wemby right now! lol

[ForeverTFC]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

I’ll trade our whole roster for a 14% chance at Wemby right now! lol

Government run lotteries are lucrative for a reason

[CPT]

I was thinking of ways we should take advantage of New Orleans before hearing this deal was offered to us.

I’d probably take it, but I’d also try to squeeze out a little more because it’s the 9th pick instead of 13th (of course the price wouldn’t have been known at the time).

Somehow get Herb Jones and that unprotected pick. Maybe convince them that RJ and Zion should be reunited and get Trey Murphy.

[brownbobcat]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

[sidsid]

I was thinking of ways we should take advantage of New Orleans before hearing this deal was offered to us.

I’d probably take it, but I’d also try to squeeze out a little more because it’s the 9th pick instead of 13th (of course the price wouldn’t have been known at the time).

Somehow get Herb Jones and that unprotected pick. Maybe convince them that RJ and Zion should be reunited and get Trey Murphy.

Since we seem to be desperate to move RJ, the deal you make is sending him there for CJ (assuming this deal is agreed to ahead of time before they moved him for Poole) and squeeze an extra future 1st (just your standard protected one) out of it as the price to move down.

Then you have a flexible expiring to move around in deadline trades, or this offseason for smaller deals. It likely has more value than RJ anyway.

[sidsid]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

My original nominee for the modern, great videogame trade was the Sixers sending MCW for a future lite lotto protected Lakers pick from the Bucks.

The pundits screaming "how can you trade your best player!" in the middle of The Process. Simple, they identified that he didn't have star talent and got a pick that could potentially give them a crack at the lotto for another chance at someone who might. And helped improve their own pick lotto odds at the same time.

[ForeverTFC]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

1. Variance works both ways. It can be better and it can be worse, yet you only cite the upside. The expected value anchors both.

2. That’s incorrect. It’s the number 9 pick but the player you are drafting isn’t always the number 9 player. As I pointed out, if the Raptors had a top 5 grade on CMB, the pick at that specific point in time had the value of a top 5 pick TO THEM. The number 9 pick’s expected value is the expected value of the player you are about to take when the first 8 picks have been used, which is when this deal would have been made.

3. Agree that success in the NBA is doing a lot better than average. However that does not equate a higher pick. In the last 7 years, the best or 2nd best players on the champion were not top 5 picks 5 out of 7 times. And only once in those 2 instances, the team actually drafted those players.

[ForeverTFC]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

My original nominee for the modern, great videogame trade was the Sixers sending MCW for a future lite lotto protected Lakers pick from the Bucks.

The pundits screaming "how can you trade your best player!" in the middle of The Process. Simple, they identified that he didn't have star talent and got a pick that could potentially give them a crack at the lotto for another chance at someone who might. And helped improve their own pick lotto odds at the same time.

That pick became Romeo Langford…

[WiggOuts]

Its easy to say yes now that we don't know how CMB will turn out but they turned it down so they could keep him, that says a lot.

I would've did it, ATL drafted Asa Newell with #23, who a lot of people wanted at 9. Thats not bad when that pick next year could be mid-high lotto..but...I absolutely would've asked for more which I think they would've been willing to pay

[Courtside]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

My original nominee for the modern, great videogame trade was the Sixers sending MCW for a future lite lotto protected Lakers pick from the Bucks.

The pundits screaming "how can you trade your best player!" in the middle of The Process. Simple, they identified that he didn't have star talent and got a pick that could potentially give them a crack at the lotto for another chance at someone who might. And helped improve their own pick lotto odds at the same time.

Is the point of having a team in the NBA to win games and titles, or to lose games and win lotto picks?

(setting aside the money, for this discussion)

[ontnut]

Twist my arm, Yes. I like CMB but he's in a tier with guys I'd have taken in that range. Without knowledge of how the draft plays out, Jak or someone nice could've dropped to 23. That Pels pick next year is insanely unprotected. Odds are it's likely top 10 pick pre-lotto - and we know how lotto's go. That's a crazy asset to give up to move up 10 spots to 13. For 9...I'd probably ask for a 2nd round pick swap on top of it just based on #9 vs #13. And Pels prob accept.

I take the trade based on the ability to either select high in the '26 draft, or move that pick along the way for CMB or better. Just a crazy mis-evaluation of assets.

[ontnut]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

I’ll trade our whole roster for a 14% chance at Wemby right now! lol

"6 reds in a row....black has gotta come up now!"

[Shakril]

Dumars said he offered the deal starting at #9 and worked down until he got a yes

No, cause who says that next year we get a better talent. Drafts vary in how deep the talent is.

[Shakril]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

I’ll trade our whole roster for a 14% chance at Wemby right now! lol

Tankers never learn. Didnt this year teach how stupid tanking is?

[CPT]

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

I’ll trade our whole roster for a 14% chance at Wemby right now! lol

Tankers never learn. Didnt this year teach how stupid tanking is?

Wouldn’t even have to tank in this scenario. Just start over as an expansion team, with a 14% chance at Wemby.

Could probably rebuild a similar asset base just through free agency and throwing cap space around in trades.

[OakleyDokely]

It's a big gamble because you aren't guaranteed to get a pick as high as #9 next year. Maybe NO stinks and it's top 5, but maybe they sneak into the play-in and the pick is in the 12/13/14 range. It's a good gamble for a mid 1st round team like ATL to make, but giving up the 9th overall pick for the unknown is probably something I wouldn't have done, especially when you're only given 5 minutes to evaluate the situation.

[hyper316]

Someone bookmark this, Pels 2026 pick gonna wins #1

[sidsid]

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

My original nominee for the modern, great videogame trade was the Sixers sending MCW for a future lite lotto protected Lakers pick from the Bucks.

The pundits screaming "how can you trade your best player!" in the middle of The Process. Simple, they identified that he didn't have star talent and got a pick that could potentially give them a crack at the lotto for another chance at someone who might. And helped improve their own pick lotto odds at the same time.

Is the point of having a team in the NBA to win games and titles, or to lose games and win lotto picks?

(setting aside the money, for this discussion)

That's a question for the various owners to answer. Many of them are fine with doing just enough to get to the playoffs, stay under the tax to participate in revenue sharing and make a profit. Winning championships a secondary consideration. In the end it's a business.

As a fan, it's whatever your interests are for entertainment. I'm one who can enjoy the climb and watching potential grow. Most of my enjoyment isn't linked to seeing random Ws in the regular season anymore in sports. I loved that 2019 feeling. Watching a true contender. I'd rather see the team chase the most sustainable path to get there again.

[sidsid]

OK, a few things.

1. It wasn't a 1-for-1 swap, it would have been the Pels/Buck swap AND #23.

2. I find people have a tough time understanding when and how to apply mathematical principles to the NBA. Expected value alone is not a great variable for making decisions because you're missing out on the value of variance. There is 0% chance #9 is anything but #9, but there is a chance that the swap could be much higher, and that possibility is valuable. If you only made decisions based on expected value, you'd start calculating things like Tristan Thompson being better than the typical #4 pick and how you get value by trading away high lottery picks for NBA vets.

Success in the NBA doesn't mean doing slightly better than average, it requires performing a LOT better than average.

My original nominee for the modern, great videogame trade was the Sixers sending MCW for a future lite lotto protected Lakers pick from the Bucks.

The pundits screaming "how can you trade your best player!" in the middle of The Process. Simple, they identified that he didn't have star talent and got a pick that could potentially give them a crack at the lotto for another chance at someone who might. And helped improve their own pick lotto odds at the same time.

That pick became Romeo Langford…

And then their own pick, helped by trading away players who lead to a few more wins, landed them Joel Embiid.

[Pointgod]

I mean the Raptors arent really in a position to kick the can down the road yet another year. Sure it is possible its a lottery pick and even a good one, but also possible its in the 10-16 range. So if you think CMB (or whoever you take at 9) is better than next years lets say #10, although obviously it could be higher or lower, its not really worth the risk/reward. We might not even be alive in a year! Time to get back on the...fun to watch basketball.

Other than the fact that Masai has to save his job there’s literally no reason for this team to try to be competitive this year. We’re still not asset rich if we wanted to make a trade for a superstar and there were still players mocked in the low lottery available at the 23rd pick. The trade is literally for the best pick between the Pelicans and Bucks next season. I don’t know if you’re paying attention to the Pelicans but they will probably be awful next year.