Would you have traded #9 for the Pelicans package?

[Landomar]

I would have done it, but mostly because I didn't see a major drop from 9 to 23. This year there were a lot of players that I liked into the mid 20s, and there was a really good chance that a name I was considering at 9 would still be there at 23. It turns out that Jase Richardson and Asa Newell both made it to 23, and were both solid options for me at 9. Nique Clifford also made it to 23, and he's a great prospect. The odds that something like this would happen were high, so I would have done the trade.

I think picking a player out of my "guys I really like pool", but who wasn't my first choice, was fine considering the value of the 2026 1st that the Pelicans were offering. Moving from 9 to 23 also has a benefit of saving at least 2.3 million in salary this year, which is helpful considering how close we are to the luxury tax line.

If you are optimistic that CMB will develop into a Julius Randle with all-NBA defense type player, then it was correct to just take him and not make the trade. I personally wasn't that high on him (or anyone else left on the board at 9), so I would have happily traded down. Of course, now that CMB is on the team, I will be fully cheering for him from here on out.

[MoneyBall]

No, because all of the top players on my draft board were gone past 20. Pelicans pick could be good, it could also just be in the teens somewhere.

[Yallbecrazy]

If CMB wasn't available then yes. I'm really high on CMB, but didn't like the other guys that much.

[brownbobcat]

1. Variance works both ways. It can be better and it can be worse, yet you only cite the upside. The expected value anchors both.

Because downside doesn't matter much when upside is required. What's the optimal last shot when you're down 3, a 3pt with a 10% chance of success or a dunk with 100%? It's the 3pt because the dunk "anchors" you to losing.

2. That’s incorrect. It’s the number 9 pick but the player you are drafting isn’t always the number 9 player. As I pointed out, if the Raptors had a top 5 grade on CMB, the pick at that specific point in time had the value of a top 5 pick TO THEM. The number 9 pick’s expected value is the expected value of the player you are about to take when the first 8 picks have been used, which is when this deal would have been made.

If they're absolutely convinced CMB is a star, then sure - but more than likely he's just the best guy they liked at #9. And if they got the #5 next year, who's to say they couldn't draft a guy they thought should be #2? Same logic.

3. Agree that success in the NBA is doing a lot better than average. However that does not equate a higher pick. In the last 7 years, the best or 2nd best players on the champion were not top 5 picks 5 out of 7 times. And only once in those 2 instances, the team actually drafted those players.

That doesn't mean you actively eschew the chance at a higher pick.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

There's a report on Raptors Reddit that we turned down future first offfers for the 31st pick that we used on Mogbo last year.

[deeps6x]

Since it's a possible lottery pick in 2026, it would have given us a shot at a top 3 pick. Hell yeah I would have taken the deal.

[Pointgod]

There's a report on Raptors Reddit that we turned down future first offfers for the 31st pick that we used on Mogbo last year.

Link?

[Dalek]

Easily would have done that deal. Maybe you don't get CMB but they could of got Asa Newell or Danny Wolf plus have a high pick the following year. They have to really believe in CMB, but what are they expecting him to be? A 20/10/5 starter, or a OG 3 and D type? I am not seeing the unlimited upside of CMB given his offensive limitations.

[Dr Positivity]

I'd probably do #9 for the Pelicans/Bucks pick straight up, let alone with #23 as gravy.

[bboyskinnylegs]

depending on how we fare next year that is potentially triple the odds of moving up into the top 4 of the lottery. It's a tough decision because we had #9 now, but I think it would be hard to pass up having one the best odds of any team to land one of Dybantsa/Peterson/Boozer.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

There's a report on Raptors Reddit that we turned down future first offfers for the 31st pick that we used on Mogbo last year.

Link?

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/s/vdxTDvTzBl

Take this with a grain of salt but per Shams, the first pick of the second round is "currently being auctioned off to the highest bidder" and, per Matt Lloyd, "last year Toronto got great offers for the 31st overall pick, including some future 1st rounders."

Keep in mind that the 1st overall pick in the 2nd round doesn't count against the cap due to the new second round exception under the much maligned new CBA so while a team may not get that 4th year for a rookie scale contract, they do get some notable cap flexibility compared to, say, pick no. 26-30 in the 1st round.

[Pointgod]

There's a report on Raptors Reddit that we turned down future first offfers for the 31st pick that we used on Mogbo last year.

Link?

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/s/vdxTDvTzBl

Thanks for the link. Strange if true because I don’t think Mogbo was rated that high of a prospect.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Link?

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/s/vdxTDvTzBl

Thanks for the link. Strange if true because I don’t think Mogbo was rated that high of a prospect.

I’ve long suspected he was drafted because Scottie wanted it, which kinda soured me a bit on all 3 of them since. Shead was a much better pick and they seem to have been so much more invested in him, even though they took him later.

[Grew]

Bird in the hand

[dkb964]

They could have drafted a PF in Asa Newell/Danny Wolf/Rasheer Fleming and have a lottery pick in an expected great draft. I would have had a hard time turning that down. If what one poster said is true and Dumbmars starting calling at #9 then multiple other teams passed on the offer. Not sure if I believe that though. With Dumbmars at the helm that would be like getting an unprotected Kangz pick in a draft that potentialy has more stars then this one.

[mihaic]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

You are correct.

Those teams won't finish bottom 5 if they don't have control on their pick. Bucks have Giannis. And like this year, there will be 6-7 teams that will throw every game after ASG.

[OhCanada]

Looking back in hindsight the pick probably would have been Nique Clifford or Asa Newell. So Nique Clifford and NOP Unprotected 2026 for Collin Murray Boyles? Yeah I'm making that trade, but maybe I'm wrong. That 2026 draft is the deepest of this generation, much deeper than this years since all the early entrents pulled out for NIL money. Winning the lottery and getting in the top 4 will get you a 1st overall talent with Dybansta, Peterson, Boozer, Ament, Cenac and maybe even Stokes. I think this will end up being a mistake even if CMB turns out to be outstanding if Hawks win the lottery next year with that pick.

[PushDaRock]

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby

You are correct.

Those teams won't finish bottom 5 if they don't have control on their pick. Bucks have Giannis. And like this year, there will be 6-7 teams that will throw every game after ASG.

Some team or teams will probably jump from outside the top 4 and people will whine about how that could have been us again though I'm sure.

[The Duke]

Just another head scratching decision to not pull the trigger. This roster needs long term upside, and we missed out on the potential of that.

Pick #9 and #23 very well finish within 7% rating in 2-3 years

Pels pick might be 40-80% higher rating then #9

[PushDaRock]

Just another head scratching decision to not pull the trigger. This roster needs long term upside, and we missed out on the potential of that.

Pick #9 and #23 very well finish within 7% rating in 2-3 years

Pels pick might be 40-80% higher rating then #9

If they had a Top 5 grade on CMB, trade makes a lot less sense.