Expected Free Agent Contract Values

[Djh7475]

Celtics need to address the glaring hole at center either by resigning their own guys or trading (or S&T) for a center. With so few teams having cap space other than whatever exceptions are at their disposal, I’m curious what folks think the following guys will get on the open market:

Luke Kornet
Al Horford
Naz Reid
Clint Capella
Brook Lopez
Myles Turner
Mo Wagner
Julius Randle (even if he’s not a center)

As a Celtics fan living in Louisiana my entire life who met Naz Reid and his dad when he was at LSU, I’ve always been a huge fan of his. He would also be a great fit in Boston and finally get a chance to be an every day starter. Guys seem to get bigger contracts then I expect every offseason other than a few exceptions.

Is there any chance he ends up getting less than the $27.6M on the 1st year of his deal that Simons makes? Even if he does, do you expect Randle’s extension be too large to make a S&T possible? Would the Timberwolves even be interested in Simons? It seems like a scoring PG that is a great 3 point shooter would help take some pressure off of Ant.

[gswhoops]

Other than re-signing Kornet and/or Horford, I don't think Boston has a realistic path to acquiring any of these guys (other than maybe Capela) due to the apron rules.

[ThatBoyNick]

There’s whoever BKN signs, and then MLE’s

[Karmaloop]

There’s whoever BKN signs, and then MLE’s

Unless Brooklyn trades Claxton, are they really shopping for a center?

[hugepatsfan]

Media talk of Kornet getting full MLE money. Insane to me. I like him, but I wouldn't pay him more than the minimum, maybe up to TPMLE.

Horford still worth the full MLE easily, but challenges with that. So few teams have it to use to begin with and if they do use it have to worry about hard cap stuff. A team has to have the full MLE to use, be willing to hard cap themselves, want to use it on a big man, and then be willing to spend it on an older player. Oh, and then Horford has to want to go there. Another thing to consider is that in the new CBA where trade matching is more rigid, Horford on a 1 year $14M deal for the MLE might be throw into a trade either because it's needed to duck a hard cap or he might just be washed and they won't have any loyalty to him.

If Horford gets a full MLE from a good team I think he's gone, but I'm hopeful he could stay in BOS for the minimum over a TPMLE deal if that's his market.

[gswhoops]

There’s whoever BKN signs, and then MLE’s

Unless Brooklyn trades Claxton, are they really shopping for a center?

Probably not, but if they see an opportunity to add Turner or Naz for free they might go for it anyway.

The bigger issue from Boston's perspective is that either using the full MLE or receiving a player via S&T hard caps them at the first apron, which they're already over even post-Holiday and -Porzingis trades.

[gswhoops]

Media talk of Kornet getting full MLE money. Insane to me. I like him, but I wouldn't pay him more than the minimum, maybe up to TPMLE.

Horford still worth the full MLE easily, but challenges with that. So few teams have it to use to begin with and if they do use it have to worry about hard cap stuff. A team has to have the full MLE to use, be willing to hard cap themselves, want to use it on a big man, and then be willing to spend it on an older player. Oh, and then Horford has to want to go there. Another thing to consider is that in the new CBA where trade matching is more rigid, Horford on a 1 year $14M deal for the MLE might be throw into a trade either because it's needed to duck a hard cap or he might just be washed and they won't have any loyalty to him.

If Horford gets a full MLE from a good team I think he's gone, but I'm hopeful he could stay in BOS for the minimum over a TPMLE deal if that's his market.

Depending on how our offseason goes, I could see the Warriors throwing a full MLE offer at Horford or Brook Lopez.

[In-N-Out 247]

I would think that Capela, Brooks & Horford are all looking at T-MLE contracts from playoff teams. Figure Lakers will try to get one of them

I don't have a good read on Kornet, is he worth more that vet min?

99% sure Turner will resign in Indiana - probably $25M-30M per year. I'll guess 3 years $90M

If Julius Randle opts out, I think he only does it with a renegotiated contract in hand - less annual salary, but more years, maybe 3yrs $75M.

Naz will be looking for a full MLE deal and I think there are a few teams out there that will give it to him.

Wagner probably just stays with the Magic.

[Texas Chuck]

There’s whoever BKN signs, and then MLE’s

free agents change teams every year for over the MLE without the new team having cap space. This will almost assuredly be the case again this year.

[Karmaloop]

Probably not, but if they see an opportunity to add Turner or Naz for free they might go for it anyway.

The bigger issue from Boston's perspective is that either using the full MLE or receiving a player via S&T hard caps them at the first apron, which they're already over even post-Holiday and -Porzingis trades.

I can't see Boston being overly active in FA. I think it's largely them going into a holding pattern, and see if there's some buy-low guys that they can get and potentially flip at the deadline.

[hugepatsfan]

Other than re-signing Kornet and/or Horford, I don't think Boston has a realistic path to acquiring any of these guys (other than maybe Capela) due to the apron rules.

Eh, not sure about that.

They currently have 13 players signed. If you use a vet min for the 14th spot... they'll be $9.7M over the first apron they'd be hard capped at with S&T. Hauser at $10M seems very dump-able. Niang at $8.2M as well with a 2nd or two attached. Even factoring in the roster spots to backfill, that gets you $4M below the 1st apron. And then you have Simons on a $27.7M expiring salary to use in S&T.

I think they have a very functional path to being able to sign a $30M salary free agent via S&T with Simons expiring deal as the outgoing money. If they're willing to stay in the tax, they actually have a lot of possibilities now.

[gswhoops]

Other than re-signing Kornet and/or Horford, I don't think Boston has a realistic path to acquiring any of these guys (other than maybe Capela) due to the apron rules.

Eh, not sure about that.

They currently have 13 players signed. If you use a vet min for the 14th spot... they'll be $9.7M over the first apron they'd be hard capped at with S&T. Hauser at $10M seems very dump-able. Niang at $8.2M as well with a 2nd or two attached. Even factoring in the roster spots to backfill, that gets you $4M below the 1st apron. And then you have Simons on a $27.7M expiring salary to use in S&T.

I think they have a very functional path to being able to sign a $30M salary free agent via S&T with Simons expiring deal as the outgoing money. If they're willing to stay in the tax, they actually have a lot of possibilities now.

That's a fair point. Other than Turner and maybe Naz, who I think their respective teams badly want to keep, I don't see any of those guys as being worth $30 million a year.

[Djh7475]

Most of these seem about right to be other than Turner/Randle/Naz.

I would put the floor for Turner/Randle at $30M based on what guys have been getting lately with ceilings at $40M. I assume Randle would pick up his player option and wait until more teams have cap space next offseason if he’s going to take a paycut.

I also figured Naz was due for a hefty pay raise in the $25M range due to his play style at center being so widely coveted, so same as Randle, he’d be better off picking up his player option than taking the MLE in my opinion.

Kornet I do think is worth a decent bit more than the minimum, but he’s really hard to gauge as big men always seem to look better in Boston than they do elsewhere. The tax MLE seems about right for him.

I would think that Capela, Brooks & Horford are all looking at T-MLE contracts from playoff teams. Figure Lakers will try to get one of them

I don't have a good read on Kornet, is he worth more that vet min?

99% sure Turner will resign in Indiana - probably $25M-30M per year. I'll guess 3 years $90M

If Julius Randle opts out, I think he only does it with a renegotiated contract in hand - less annual salary, but more years, maybe 3yrs $75M.

Naz will be looking for a full MLE deal and I think there are a few teams out there that will give it to him.

Wagner probably just stays with the Magic.

[Magic_Johnny12]

Wagner probably just stays with the Magic.

It sounds like he will test free agency.

Orlando doesn’t have a lot of money/flexibility to play with and I think Mo is wanting more money/longer term contract.

History shows that Weltman lowballed him last season and Mo wasn’t too thrilled about it. They eventually came to an understanding, but I think Orlando has given his representation their number that they are willing to give and don’t think it’s what Mo envisioned and subsequently he will see what other offers are out there (rightfully so).

Hes coming off an ACL injury and probably won’t be playing until December at the earliest.

Also, retaining Mo (without any other trades) means Orlando will not be able to use their full MLE so there’s a division between the fanbase that a full MLE target like NAW/Jerome would make more sense than overpaying Wagner (again).

I think his option is declined regardless though.

[brackdan70]

Has Portis opted out?