Klomp wrote:TheZachAttack wrote:Naz had a bad season this year. He has also shown that his efficiency and personal numbers do not scale that well into a Randle/Towns role. Naz is a play finisher and does really well operating off of an advantage creator and punishing advantages -- whether spacing the floor or other decisive decisions. I think he was hurt by the Wolves lack of consistent initation and ball handling this year as well as trying to show out a bit as a creator. I also 100% agree that Naz is a big wing and not a center. I think he was hurt by having to operate a lot as the backup Center.
I think that I would pay Naz $20m per year, but I would only do so if I am willing to address the rest of the rotation and allow Naz to get back into the role from the previous 2 seasons to this year that he excelled in. The other caveat that I will give is that while Naz was inconsistent this year -- more so than previous years -- and he struggled with his personal numbers to scale as a starter -- the net rating of lineups he is in even when he isn't efficient was still among the best on the team.
I kind of agree that his 6th man role is actually the role that he should be in rather than thinking he can have a bigger role. I would pay slightly more than I would want to and give him a 4 year 80-90m deal, because of the team fit, the culture fit, the fact that even when he's not good he spaces th floor and makes quick decisions, and the fact that he's still young.
He's a lot like Bobby Portis to me. Three summers ago, a 27-year old Portis signed a 4-year deal at just over the MLE to stay in Milwaukee. The Bucks were coming off their title, and most expected him to move on from his 6th man/spot starter role. Reid being a year younger and having won the 6MOY last year, would likely bump up his number higher than the MLE in a normal year. We'll see what happens this year with very little cap space available though.
The mid level exception is going to be around $15m. I think Naz is worth more than that. He was also pretty good this post season outside of missing his 3’s against OKC and shot 50-40-76 over the playoffs.
From a human standpoint, if the Wolves retaining him I see them honoring some of his faith in them between him signing probably a lower deal than he would have on the open market for his last contract and playing out of position/role in a contract year.
Maybe, in exchange Naz gives the team some flexibility in the 4th year and/or a 5th year of team option control. I think purely based on his play last season you’d love to have him on a 15-18m deal. Realistically, given some of the factors above and the benefits of continuity I see him getting $20-23m avg from the Wolves. Again, maybe there is some team control that Naz gives the Wolves as a tradeoff.
Assuming the Wolves, with an offseason and a season of play to adjust after the late offseason trade, can get Naz back into a big wing role, assuming that the salary cap keeps going up, and assuming the Wolves are willing to bet on continued personal improvement on his weaknesses — I think this is close enough to a fair value that even in a market environment without a lot of cap space the Wolves will commit.
I could be wrong but we will see. I’ll add that I think one of the Wolves goals will be to add shot creation, ball handling, and the ability to get defenses into rotation if they can to their lineup. I do think these players are hard to come by though. And I think while they will do what they can to get more (and hopefully develop Rob and/or Shannon) the next best approach and the other thing the Wolves should do is continue to lean into spacing/shooting/3 point volume.
Being able to punish defenses even just one pass away and beat them considerably in the 3 point category is a huge advantage and easy offense. We saw the Wolves play that out in the postseason and we also saw what relying on that and inconsistent shot making looks like. I think they were a better 3 point shooting team compared to 2 seasons ago and they should continue to lean into adding 3 point shooting into their rotation and figuring out ways to look to generate more easy and 3 point shooting looks for guys like Dante, Naz, and whomever they add to their rotation is to find some more consistency in that part of their game. For better or for worse, that’s going to be part of the path they have to pursue
