2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 3

[fincane30]

What is something to consider is that a deal in which we absorbed Beal and shipped out Herro elsewhere it would probably net us 5-7 1st round picks. I’m not against doing something like that at all, but I feel like the front office is going to do everything they can to get one more shot at the dance in the next 2 years. If you moved Bam+Herro took on some bad deals I think you could haul in 10 1sts for your trouble.

It would be 2-3 years of absolute pain and misery with no promise that we’d land a transcendent player just better odds. If Riley stepped down tomorrow that would probably be the course of action. I’m all for something like that but if you do it you don’t just half ass it

You're not getting any firsts for absorbing Beal because the Suns traded their only tradeable first for Mark Williams on Wednesday. The Suns have 2nd rounders to trade and not even that many

I’m seeing 2, what am I missing? 2027 and 2029

They can't trade 27 because they don't have a 26 first rounder. The '29 one is from the Mark Williams trade. And since the trade isn't official it remains on the books. They can't even acknowledge that they drafted Maluach because the pick they used is from the KD trade which isn't official.

[batterybro42]

Read on Twitter

Bring me the assets, let’s do it.

What is something to consider is that a deal in which we absorbed Beal and shipped out Herro elsewhere it would probably net us 5-7 1st round picks. I’m not against doing something like that at all, but I feel like the front office is going to do everything they can to get one more shot at the dance in the next 2 years. If you moved Bam+Herro took on some bad deals I think you could haul in 10 1sts for your trouble.

It would be 2-3 years of absolute pain and misery with no promise that we’d land a transcendent player just better odds. If Riley stepped down tomorrow that would probably be the course of action. I’m all for something like that but if you do it you don’t just half ass it

You're not getting any firsts for absorbing Beal because the Suns traded their only tradeable first for Mark Williams on Wednesday. The Suns have 2nd rounders to trade and not even that many

Did not know then absolutely not lol

[3ammy3uck3ts]

You're not getting any firsts for absorbing Beal because the Suns traded their only tradeable first for Mark Williams on Wednesday. The Suns have 2nd rounders to trade and not even that many

I’m seeing 2, what am I missing? 2027 and 2029

They can't trade 27 because they don't have a 26 first rounder. The '29 one is from the Mark Williams trade. And since the trade isn't official it remains on the books. They can't even acknowledge that they drafted Maluach because the pick they used is from the KD trade which isn't official.

That makes sense then, I was thinking they only had 1 to trade so I was shocked to see 2. They do have a 2026 though

[DayofMourning]

https://draftstack.substack.com/p/steve-settle-iii-scouting-deepdive

[fincane30]

I’m seeing 2, what am I missing? 2027 and 2029

They can't trade 27 because they don't have a 26 first rounder. The '29 one is from the Mark Williams trade. And since the trade isn't official it remains on the books. They can't even acknowledge that they drafted Maluach because the pick they used is from the KD trade which isn't official.

That makes sense then, I was thinking they only had 1 to trade so I was shocked to see 2. They do have a 2026 though

That 26 is tied up in so many protections. Maybe another was acquired before they gave it over in a swap. I think the original Suns pick is owned by the Grizzlies as part of the Desmond Bane trade. But the Suns won't have the 27 to trade in a Beal deal unless they acquire one in this offseason.

[gom]

I’m seeing 2, what am I missing? 2027 and 2029

They can't trade 27 because they don't have a 26 first rounder. The '29 one is from the Mark Williams trade. And since the trade isn't official it remains on the books. They can't even acknowledge that they drafted Maluach because the pick they used is from the KD trade which isn't official.

That makes sense then, I was thinking they only had 1 to trade so I was shocked to see 2. They do have a 2026 though

2026: Own (swap with WAS) - cannot trade - Stepien
2027: Gone (traded to HOU)
2028: Own (swap complex, but PHX-owned) cannot trade, Stepien
2029: Own (swap with HOU) <— Traded for Williams.
2030: Own (swap with WAS/MEM, cannot trade, stepien)
2031: Gone (traded to UTA)
2032: Own (Stepien Rule - cannot trade)

They can trade 2026 on draft night of course (after drafting)

[gom]

https://draftstack.substack.com/p/steve-settle-iii-scouting-deepdive

Great info. Settle's stats are interesting:





His defense is very steady.

After a dip in 2023–24, his field goal and three-point percentages improved sharply in 2024–25. His free throw shooting dropped in 2023–24 but rebounded respectably.

Advanced stats:



All data from sports-reference (basketball-reference). Thanks to them! Huge resource.

[SA37]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

[gom]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Yeah, this is incredibly wishful thinking for the Suns. Also Beal has a no-trade clause, so why would he do that? He turned down teams the Suns tried to dump him on last season, right?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

They can't trade 27 because they don't have a 26 first rounder. The '29 one is from the Mark Williams trade. And since the trade isn't official it remains on the books. They can't even acknowledge that they drafted Maluach because the pick they used is from the KD trade which isn't official.

That makes sense then, I was thinking they only had 1 to trade so I was shocked to see 2. They do have a 2026 though

2026: Own (swap with WAS) - cannot trade - Stepien
2027: Gone (traded to HOU)
2028: Own (swap complex, but PHX-owned) cannot trade, Stepien
2029: Own (swap with HOU) <— Traded for Williams.
2030: Own (swap with WAS/MEM, cannot trade, stepien)
2031: Gone (traded to UTA)
2032: Own (Stepien Rule - cannot trade)

They can trade 2026 on draft night of course (after drafting)

I’m seeing a 2027 1st round pick for then via Utah, Cle, or Min with no protections

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Is Derozan coming with 2 1sts? As constructed we’re not winning anything over the next 2 years but having 5-6 1sts can actually get us in superstar talks

[gom]

I hate being in the situation we are in, because it really sucks, but we worked really hard to get here. Let's face it though: It could be a lot worse.

My plan:

Don't make it worse. Take a year to fix things.

1. Keep Wiggins and make it perfect for him to reclaim his value. Headline him.
2. Do not trade picks now.
3. Do not hunt whales now. We have dodged some serious bullets the last few seasons. If we had done the Dame trade, would we really be better off? I doubt it.
4. If at mid-season we are not a good team, give Bam and Herro a trip to Carnaval in Brasil and hand Rozier the ball. Let's find out how bad we can be.
5. Play the young guys and give them experience.

[fincane30]

That makes sense then, I was thinking they only had 1 to trade so I was shocked to see 2. They do have a 2026 though

2026: Own (swap with WAS) - cannot trade - Stepien
2027: Gone (traded to HOU)
2028: Own (swap complex, but PHX-owned) cannot trade, Stepien
2029: Own (swap with HOU) <— Traded for Williams.
2030: Own (swap with WAS/MEM, cannot trade, stepien)
2031: Gone (traded to UTA)
2032: Own (Stepien Rule - cannot trade)

They can trade 2026 on draft night of course (after drafting)

I’m seeing a 2027 1st round pick for then via Utah, Cle, or Min with no protections

A swap they don't have control over. Dependent on the records of 3 other teams. Can't be traded.

[SA37]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Is Derozan coming with 2 1sts? As constructed we’re not winning anything over the next 2 years but having 5-6 1sts can actually get us in superstar talks

~$67M for a lottery ticket you hope you turns into $1B is not an investment but criminal financial mismanagement. There are other ways of going about adding draft capital that don't involve bankrupting the owner.

I only mentioned DeRozan because he's going to give you similar, if not better, production than Bradley Beal. And Beal can't even be used in a trade down the line when he's an expiring unless you get his permission. So you're just overpaying in every possible way.

[EMC5466]

Read on Twitter

?s=61

[SA37]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Yeah, this is incredibly wishful thinking for the Suns. Also Beal has a no-trade clause, so why would he do that? He turned down teams the Suns tried to dump him on last season, right?

I think the biggest issue was Beal didn't want to move his family mid-season. I think he'd be open to a move to very limited places, basically Miami, any Texas team, Atlanta, and maybe the Wizards. With his contract locked in, I don't think he cares about anything more than off-the-court stability.

[Beenie]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Because the money is gonna be poorly spent one way or another.

Duncan, Rozier and Highsmith for Beal financially works.

Year 1, Beal in theory, could effectively get all of Duncan's and Rozier's combined minutes.

Year 2, he has an expiring contract and then could be packaged with a trove of picks for xyz star who becomes avail.

[fincane30]

The Suns pick situation is a mess, specifically the 26 pick

https://arizonasports.com/nba/phoenix-suns/suns-nba-draft-picks/3569834/

All started with the Bradley Beal trade. Throw in the Nurkic trade and a lot of swaps. Trading swaps for second rounders.

So after all that the Suns won't be picking in the first round according to that link and for our purposes have nothing to entice to trade for Beal.

[SA37]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Because the money is gonna be poorly spent one way or another.

Duncan, Rozier and Highsmith for Beal financially works.

Year 1, Beal in theory, could effectively get all of Duncan's and Rozier's combined minutes.

Year 2, he has an expiring contract and then could be packaged with a trove of picks for xyz star who becomes avail.

No, money is not going to be spent poorly anyway. Robinson and Rozier expire after this season (assuming Miami doesn't cut Robinson). Miami is on the hook for ~$46M total if Robinson opts in and Miami doesn't cut him. You trade the pair for Beal and you add $7M to this season's tab + the $57M Beal is owed next season + the money you have to add for the tax.

Your year 2 plan goes to hell if Beal decides he doesn't feel like being traded (he's not giving up his trade veto).

In any case, it's all a moot point because the Suns don't have any 1sts to send Miami and there are no guarantees Beal would ok a deal even if they did.

[Beenie]

Let's assume Miami could somehow get 2 1sts for absorbing Beal and sent out Robinson and Rozier. Why would Miami's ownership agree to pay Beal ~$110M when they could get DeRozan for ~$50M?

Essentially the proposition is for ownership to pay ~$67M for 2 1st round picks.

Because the money is gonna be poorly spent one way or another.

Duncan, Rozier and Highsmith for Beal financially works.

Year 1, Beal in theory, could effectively get all of Duncan's and Rozier's combined minutes.

Year 2, he has an expiring contract and then could be packaged with a trove of picks for xyz star who becomes avail.

No, money is not going to be spent poorly anyway. Robinson and Rozier expire after this season (assuming Miami doesn't cut Robinson). Miami is on the hook for ~$46M total if Robinson opts in and Miami doesn't cut him. You trade the pair for Beal and you add $7M to this season's tab + the $57M Beal is owed next season + the money you have to add for the tax.

Your year 2 plan goes to hell if Beal decides he doesn't feel like being traded (he's not giving up his trade veto).

In any case, it's all a moot point because the Suns don't have any 1sts to send Miami and there are no guarantees Beal would ok a deal even if they did.

Year 2 is a dice roll, I concede that point. I prefer other trade options like the Dame proposal for this very reason.

Regarding the first year, though, in my proposal, Highsmith is also included and he's making 5.6m next season.

I would argue that Beal would be more valuable than all 3 players.

If Mia's plan is to indeed be playing Ware and Jovic more, then HIghsmith's minutes will almost certainly get slashed; I also suspect that Keshan Johnson will get some run this season which would probably pull from Highsmith's minute bucket.

All of that is to say, that Mia would be spending a combined 52.1m on Duncan, Rozier, and Highsmith while getting less production than what they'd likely get out of Beal alone - again, year 1.