2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 3

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Because the money is gonna be poorly spent one way or another.

Duncan, Rozier and Highsmith for Beal financially works.

Year 1, Beal in theory, could effectively get all of Duncan's and Rozier's combined minutes.

Year 2, he has an expiring contract and then could be packaged with a trove of picks for xyz star who becomes avail.

No, money is not going to be spent poorly anyway. Robinson and Rozier expire after this season (assuming Miami doesn't cut Robinson). Miami is on the hook for ~$46M total if Robinson opts in and Miami doesn't cut him. You trade the pair for Beal and you add $7M to this season's tab + the $57M Beal is owed next season + the money you have to add for the tax.

Your year 2 plan goes to hell if Beal decides he doesn't feel like being traded (he's not giving up his trade veto).

In any case, it's all a moot point because the Suns don't have any 1sts to send Miami and there are no guarantees Beal would ok a deal even if they did.

Year 2 is a dice roll, I concede that point. I prefer other trade options like the Dame proposal for this very reason.

Regarding the first year, though, in my proposal, Highsmith is also included and he's making 5.6m next season.

I would argue that Beal would be more valuable than all 3 players.

If Mia's plan is to indeed be playing Ware and Jovic more, then HIghsmith's minutes will almost certainly get slashed; I also suspect that Keshan Johnson will get some run this season which would probably pull from Highsmith's minute bucket.

All of that is to say, that Mia would be spending a combined 52.1m on Duncan, Rozier, and Highsmith while getting less production than what they'd likely get out of Beal alone - again, year 1.

We're still talking ownership being on the hook for $60+M in extra guaranteed money for 2 1sts. That's insanity.

My feeling is Miami intends to keep Highsmith around. If that is the case, I think he's still going to get 20-25m a night. I know he's not as exciting as Miami's other prospects, but Miami gave Highsmith the most minutes off the bench in the playoffs and he started more games than anyone not named Bam/Herro.

And I'll just point out this isn't a binary choice; Miami can cut Robinson and trade Rozier for DeRozan or something like that. What is unlikely to happen is that the assets Miami has somehow net them a 1st round pick, let alone an unprotected one or multiple picks.

[Daffy]

I hate being in the situation we are in, because it really sucks, but we worked really hard to get here. Let's face it though: It could be a lot worse.

My plan:

Don't make it worse. Take a year to fix things.

1. Keep Wiggins and make it perfect for him to reclaim his value. Headline him.
2. Do not trade picks now.
3. Do not hunt whales now. We have dodged some serious bullets the last few seasons. If we had done the Dame trade, would we really be better off? I doubt it.
4. If at mid-season we are not a good team, give Bam and Herro a trip to Carnaval in Brasil and hand Rozier the ball. Let's find out how bad we can be.
5. Play the young guys and give them experience.

Dame Butler and Bam was definitely going to make some noise and we would have been better off. There's no guarantee Dame tears his Achilles here with us either.

[Heat3]

A Dame proposal. I thought i mistakenly opened an old bookmarked thread by mistake.

[Daffy]

A Dame proposal. I thought i mistakenly opened an old bookmarked thread by mistake.

[Beenie]

Spoiler:

No, money is not going to be spent poorly anyway. Robinson and Rozier expire after this season (assuming Miami doesn't cut Robinson). Miami is on the hook for ~$46M total if Robinson opts in and Miami doesn't cut him. You trade the pair for Beal and you add $7M to this season's tab + the $57M Beal is owed next season + the money you have to add for the tax.

Your year 2 plan goes to hell if Beal decides he doesn't feel like being traded (he's not giving up his trade veto).

In any case, it's all a moot point because the Suns don't have any 1sts to send Miami and there are no guarantees Beal would ok a deal even if they did.

Year 2 is a dice roll, I concede that point. I prefer other trade options like the Dame proposal for this very reason.

Regarding the first year, though, in my proposal, Highsmith is also included and he's making 5.6m next season.

I would argue that Beal would be more valuable than all 3 players.

If Mia's plan is to indeed be playing Ware and Jovic more, then HIghsmith's minutes will almost certainly get slashed; I also suspect that Keshan Johnson will get some run this season which would probably pull from Highsmith's minute bucket.

All of that is to say, that Mia would be spending a combined 52.1m on Duncan, Rozier, and Highsmith while getting less production than what they'd likely get out of Beal alone - again, year 1.

We're still talking ownership being on the hook for $60+M in extra guaranteed money for 2 1sts. That's insanity.

My feeling is Miami intends to keep Highsmith around. If that is the case, I think he's still going to get 20-25m a night. I know he's not as exciting as Miami's other prospects, but Miami gave Highsmith the most minutes off the bench in the playoffs and he started more games than anyone not named Bam/Herro.

And I'll just point out this isn't a binary choice; Miami can cut Robinson and trade Rozier for DeRozan or something like that. What is unlikely to happen is that the assets Miami has somehow net them a 1st round pick, let alone an unprotected one or multiple picks.

Part of what's missing here is what Mia could do and what they should do, not just what they are likely to do based on their past tendencies.

The strategy of acquiring assets to strengthen future positionings is the approach that I think and some others also think is the correct way to operate right now.

Regarding the specific idea of netting a future first(s) with their assets, if they indeed decided to make this a prioritized goal, I totally think its a reasonable expectation so long as they would be willing to take on unwanted salary in return.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Year 2 is a dice roll, I concede that point. I prefer other trade options like the Dame proposal for this very reason.

Regarding the first year, though, in my proposal, Highsmith is also included and he's making 5.6m next season.

I would argue that Beal would be more valuable than all 3 players.

If Mia's plan is to indeed be playing Ware and Jovic more, then HIghsmith's minutes will almost certainly get slashed; I also suspect that Keshan Johnson will get some run this season which would probably pull from Highsmith's minute bucket.

All of that is to say, that Mia would be spending a combined 52.1m on Duncan, Rozier, and Highsmith while getting less production than what they'd likely get out of Beal alone - again, year 1.

We're still talking ownership being on the hook for $60+M in extra guaranteed money for 2 1sts. That's insanity.

My feeling is Miami intends to keep Highsmith around. If that is the case, I think he's still going to get 20-25m a night. I know he's not as exciting as Miami's other prospects, but Miami gave Highsmith the most minutes off the bench in the playoffs and he started more games than anyone not named Bam/Herro.

And I'll just point out this isn't a binary choice; Miami can cut Robinson and trade Rozier for DeRozan or something like that. What is unlikely to happen is that the assets Miami has somehow net them a 1st round pick, let alone an unprotected one or multiple picks.

Part of what's missing here is what Mia could do and what they should do, not just what they are likely to do based on their past tendencies.

The strategy of acquiring assets to strengthen future positionings is the approach that I think and some others also think is the correct way to operate right now.

Regarding the specific idea of netting a future first(s) with their assets, if they indeed decided to make this a prioritized goal, I totally think its a reasonable expectation so long as they would be willing to take on unwanted salary in return.

It seems pretty clear the FO has prioritized getting its finances in order to avoid apron issues/penalties and to have enough cap space for a max player either in 2026 or 2027. As you'll see from the clips below, Riley doesn't seem to have any intention of blowing things up and building through the draft. And given what he said about the CBA, taking on onerous contracts has to be done with forethought and without incurring penalties for being over certain aprons or the repeater tax...etc.

I think this ~minute from Riley says a lot:

https://youtu.be/sK4dKlVUlyM?t=485

Here he is talking about Miami's plans (to about 16'30):

https://youtu.be/sK4dKlVUlyM?t=700


Here is the TL;DW:

Riley said he doesn’t expect the Heat to “run it back” with virtually the same roster next season, which means the team will pursue trades this summer.

The Heat — who finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, made the playoffs through the play-in tournament as the No. 8 seed and then got swept by Cleveland, losing the last two of those games by 37 and 55 points, respectively — have retooled their roster, by Riley’s count, no fewer than 14 times in his 29 offseasons in Miami.

“I think we do have to make changes,” Riley said. “There’s no doubt there has to be some change.”

https://apnews.com/article/heat-pat-riley-c20be333636def3045911ff6d43d3035

To add some context, Riley spoke at length about how successful he's been at re-tooling and how it usually takes a few years to do (and he gives examples of the re-tool from 2002-2006).


And one more bit (he could be lying, of course):

While Riley knows there must be changes to the Heat’s roster after being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, it appears he’s also ready to move forward with the the leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Herro. The question is can the Heat add a star this summer to make it a leading trio. “We got [Herro] and Bam at the right time and we’re going to move forward with them,” Riley said.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article306034806.html


Read the rest of the article at your own peril, as it is mainly about Herro's extension

[SA37]

And just to add to the above, I only half jokingly said Bam and Herro were the new Brian Grant and Eddie Jones. Lots of parallels with the 2002-2006 re-tool if Miami really does pursue Kuminga (the new Lamar Odom). Mitchell (the new J Will) and potentially DeRozan or Julius Randle next summer? (the new Antoine Walker) rounding out the cast here. (Sorry, I got nothing for Wiggins; he's too good to be Posey or Iguodala.)

Interestingly, Riley seems to be taking a page out of Boston's book when they stockpiled some pretty mediocre young'ns that eventually became the main pieces of the KG trade. (Et tu, Giannis?)

[Wiltside]

And just to add to the above, I only half jokingly said Bam and Herro were the new Brian Grant and Eddie Jones. Lots of parallels with the 2002-2006 re-tool if Miami really does pursue Kuminga (the new Lamar Odom). Mitchell (the new J Will) and potentially DeRozan or Julius Randle next summer? (the new Antoine Walker) rounding out the cast here. (Sorry, I got nothing for Wiggins; he's too good to be Posey or Iguodala.)

Interestingly, Riley seems to be taking a page out of Boston's book when they stockpiled some pretty mediocre young'ns that eventually became the main pieces of the KG trade. (Et tu, Giannis?)

I was just thinking of the Odom signing and how Kuminga might be viewed as another asset they can obtain via RFA, pump up the value of, and be a key piece in a star trade.

[3ballbomber]

When you look at the type of players we had w/ each Championship or Finals/deep runs there’s one common denominator we had that exemplified Heat basketball/culture. Tough minded players.

Wade, Shaq, Mourning, Haslem, Riley coaching, Butler. These are some of the toughest sob’s you can get as competitive basketball players/coach. I didnt mention big-3 because that was simply a stacked squad that was supposed to dominate.

Butler was a goddamn warrior & as damn gritty as you can get He went to war, wanted smoke & didn’t give a f*ck who he fought. Just a tough competitor. He was a significant factor for our recent runs.

This is the problem we have currently once Butler bounced. Who is left to carry that fire? We have one of the softest players mentally given the team captain badge. The fish rots from the head down. Can you feel confident going to war w/ Bam as your captain, who after a loss is happy to hug, smile & schmooze w/ the very players that just beat him. Spo, as much as he talks about grit, being forged in fire etc ain’t Riles. Riley was tough as fawk, disciplined his players. He’d scold Bam for his post gm cuddles. Spo not so much. A great coach w/ the X’s & O’s but lacks the tough trait that spreads to his players. Haslem is no longer on the bench also.

You notice also all the players i mentioned were not only great offensively but just as staunch defensively. Unfortunately we also sold out & marketed Heat Culture like it’s a product we sell. It’s not something you buy it’s what we impose on our opponents. You don’t sell our toughness, we show it.

I cant remember who Spida was bullying during one of the gm’s in our series w/ Cavs but i was watching thinking somebody wld step in & go at Mitchell. Nobody did & we looked like complete chumps. Bam, team captain, didn’t want that smoke w/ his good friend. As a leader allowed it to happen.

We need to get back to acquiring these sort of players or build it into these kids through the process. Mitchell may have that trait & the reason we love the kid. We need toughness on this team again - that’s Miami Heat ball.

There are some fair points in here. I'll say this and leave the topic alone, because I know someone is going to come in here with a multi-post tirade and shut the thread down for the day - I don't think Bam is a chump, I think he has his way of leading which is unique to him but not in the same mold of a Zo, UD, or Wade. Some would even say our problem is talent, not leadership, I'd argue its a little of both. The greatest example being all of the blown leads late in games. Those are the moments you are looking for someone to ignite the team and it just wasnt there. We have a team of nice guys which is cool but to your point we do need some fire and Mitchell does have the qualities you desire.

Hopefully a long offseason for Spo to refresh mentally with all the personal stuff he had going on and a couple of trades does this group some good

I firmly believe our problem is "offensive talent". We need more juice on the offensive end. At least 2 more guys who can create their own shots. One of them being a high end talent and the other being a solid guy off the bench. Outside of Herro and Bam who do we trust to go out there and get us some buckets? If 1 of Bam or Herro misses a game it becomes a long night for the one that plays that game out there to carry the load. Especially with us not having a PG who can find people (prior to drafting this kid hopefully). This is why I'm kind of in favor of acquiring Kuminga if the price is right.

We certainly do need talent. but sometimes that ain’t enough. And sometimes a least talented player who has grit & has that dog in them can be just as valuable.

You just have to look at what a player like Jimmy did for us. He doesn't have spectacular numbers but that fierce competitive toughness had us achieving miracles. Jimmy also showed up on the biggest stage, where toughness matters most.

Mourning & Shaq are frm that same tough lineage. Put them in the mix w/ Wade’s iron will, Haslem, J-Will & even Payton & are a significant factor in our first chip. All tough sob’s.

look at players in the past like Rasheed Wallace, Rodman, Joakim Noah, Artest, KJ, Stephen Jackson, Ben Wallace, Laimbeer etc. these are the sort of tough competitors we need on this team alongside the necessary talent. They fit w/ the culture.

Imagine Bam w/ the toughness of Sheed & Charles Oakleigh. That’s worth the contract & we may even have won another chip already. This players cuddling bullsh*t is soft stuff. Do we wanna be feared & be fierce competitors or liked. Too many nice guys on this squad, Spo included. We need that enforcer type like Draymond, Rodman, Haslem that has your back & doesn’t mind squabbles in the spirit of competition.

[Beenie]

Spoiler:

We're still talking ownership being on the hook for $60+M in extra guaranteed money for 2 1sts. That's insanity.

My feeling is Miami intends to keep Highsmith around. If that is the case, I think he's still going to get 20-25m a night. I know he's not as exciting as Miami's other prospects, but Miami gave Highsmith the most minutes off the bench in the playoffs and he started more games than anyone not named Bam/Herro.

And I'll just point out this isn't a binary choice; Miami can cut Robinson and trade Rozier for DeRozan or something like that. What is unlikely to happen is that the assets Miami has somehow net them a 1st round pick, let alone an unprotected one or multiple picks.

Part of what's missing here is what Mia could do and what they should do, not just what they are likely to do based on their past tendencies.

The strategy of acquiring assets to strengthen future positionings is the approach that I think and some others also think is the correct way to operate right now.

Regarding the specific idea of netting a future first(s) with their assets, if they indeed decided to make this a prioritized goal, I totally think its a reasonable expectation so long as they would be willing to take on unwanted salary in return.

It seems pretty clear the FO has prioritized getting its finances in order to avoid apron issues/penalties and to have enough cap space for a max player either in 2026 or 2027. As you'll see from the clips below, Riley doesn't seem to have any intention of blowing things up and building through the draft. And given what he said about the CBA, taking on onerous contracts has to be done with forethought and without incurring penalties for being over certain aprons or the repeater tax...etc.

I think this ~minute from Riley says a lot:

https://youtu.be/sK4dKlVUlyM?t=485

Here he is talking about Miami's plans (to about 16'30):

https://youtu.be/sK4dKlVUlyM?t=700


Here is the TL;DW:

Riley said he doesn’t expect the Heat to “run it back” with virtually the same roster next season, which means the team will pursue trades this summer.

The Heat — who finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, made the playoffs through the play-in tournament as the No. 8 seed and then got swept by Cleveland, losing the last two of those games by 37 and 55 points, respectively — have retooled their roster, by Riley’s count, no fewer than 14 times in his 29 offseasons in Miami.

“I think we do have to make changes,” Riley said. “There’s no doubt there has to be some change.”

https://apnews.com/article/heat-pat-riley-c20be333636def3045911ff6d43d3035

To add some context, Riley spoke at length about how successful he's been at re-tooling and how it usually takes a few years to do (and he gives examples of the re-tool from 2002-2006).


And one more bit (he could be lying, of course):

While Riley knows there must be changes to the Heat’s roster after being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, it appears he’s also ready to move forward with the the leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Herro. The question is can the Heat add a star this summer to make it a leading trio. “We got [Herro] and Bam at the right time and we’re going to move forward with them,” Riley said.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article306034806.html


Read the rest of the article at your own peril, as it is mainly about Herro's extension

What they will ‘likely do’ is besides the point that I’m getting at

FYI, I’ve been making the ‘what they’ll likely do’ point in regards to their so called KD pursuit

Point I’m making now is ‘what they should be doing’ and accumulating assets ought to be their top priority imo

[dubasilva]

Any sign and trade deal must be at least 3 years in length.

What type of yearly amount do you think Kuminga would warrant?

Seems like an anti cap space deal to make for Miami. Anti-plan.

He reportedly wanted the max from the Warriors. Not sure what the number is, but I'd guess it'd be a deal starting in the low-mid 30s per year.

It's hard to imagine anyone giving him that kind of money. I'd be shocked if anyone were willing to offer him more than 150% of the MLE (~28M/year). Since Golden St can match any offer, teams are going to have to come up with an offer Golden St won't match -- and GS supposedly offered Kuming something in the $25-$30M/year range.

For that amount, we should continue to develop our young core.

[dubasilva]

I'm not onboard with JC coming to Miami. He wants a ton of money. He's a backup and wants a lot of money for a potential player.
I would consider Beal if we could acquire draft picks and get rid of Rozier.

It might be best to wait for the right opportunity at the moment.

[DayofMourning]

I hate being in the situation we are in, because it really sucks, but we worked really hard to get here. Let's face it though: It could be a lot worse.

My plan:

Don't make it worse. Take a year to fix things.

1. Keep Wiggins and make it perfect for him to reclaim his value. Headline him.
2. Do not trade picks now.
3. Do not hunt whales now. We have dodged some serious bullets the last few seasons. If we had done the Dame trade, would we really be better off? I doubt it.
4. If at mid-season we are not a good team, give Bam and Herro a trip to Carnaval in Brasil and hand Rozier the ball. Let's find out how bad we can be.
5. Play the young guys and give them experience.

This is the way.

If we can kidnap Bam and Herro and put them in cryo for this coming season, then we have a chance at one of the top dawgs in the 26 draft.

DP or AJ would really elevate our ceiling.

[DayofMourning]

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=kuminjo01&p1yrfrom=2025&p1yrto=2025&player_id2=wiggian01&p2yrfrom=2018&p2yrto=2018

Maybe we are looking to get a younger Wiggins who hasnt lost the athleticism?

[EMC5466]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=Pc6F0Q6Zl4Kt0Lo9NIo_Aw

[DayofMourning]

Read on Twitter

[MartyCONLONNN]

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=kuminjo01&p1yrfrom=2025&p1yrto=2025&player_id2=wiggian01&p2yrfrom=2018&p2yrto=2018

Maybe we are looking to get a younger Wiggins who hasnt lost the athleticism?

the biggest benefit of potentially adding Kuminga is the added rim pressure and foul drawing. 1 of the biggest issues with this offense is Tyler is our main drive and spray guy… he needs to be the 1 its being kicked out to & attacking closeouts more often.

A full szn of JK, Davion, and Kas providing this in waves would be a big change.

[Hoops3355]

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=kuminjo01&p1yrfrom=2025&p1yrto=2025&player_id2=wiggian01&p2yrfrom=2018&p2yrto=2018

Maybe we are looking to get a younger Wiggins who hasnt lost the athleticism?

Well Titos do tend to look alike.

I'd be all about JK at like 20m a season if he wasn't such a poor FT shooter. 66% is terrible for a 1A type who's not Giannis level impact on both sides of the court. If it happens I'm sure we'll see Spo and Co can raise the talent level but I just don't see how he and Bam don't have the exact same problems we had with Jimmy. His shot has been broken for years you can't fix that in GSW then I don't know where else that's gonna get resolved.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

If Bam was a fake tough guy like KG we would have won a championship in the Jimmy era despite the garbage rosters? Interesting take

[3ammy3uck3ts]

3 years at minimum, $30M per year just to find out if there’s a slim chance one of the best organizations in the league was wrong about him? That sounds dangerous and if we’re not adding a legit star I’d prefer Bam and Herro are getting 18+ shots a night getting more comfortable being main focal points so when we do finally get that superstar they’re better prepared for a championship run