Post#15 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jun 30, 2025 7:37 am
Woo, here we go! Personal Votes:
POY
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
2. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
4. Tyrese Haliburton (IND)
5. Jalen Brunson (NYK)
HM: Jayson Tatum (BOS), Donovan Mitchell (CLE), Anthony Edwards (MIN), Pascal Siakam (IND), Jalen Williams (OKC)
Starting at the top, the Notorious SGA took it all this year. Fascinating to see someone new emerge when they weren't supposed to be this level of player.
In this case, the signature stat for me with thinking about Shai this year is the all-season raw +/- leaderboard where Shai's #1 at +1084, and while his teammates Dort & Wiggins tie for #2 at 613. That 473 point gap between the #1 and everyone else, pretty sure we've never seen that before.
Now obviously, Shai's not going to lead every team to 473 better season points than everyone else. I think Shai's just about in the perfect situation. The team relies on him cooking individually on offense, and they provide the backbone to allow him to take risks defensively that of course can help with their offense. Nevertheless, I don't think anyone else can do what Shai does right now, and what he's doing is pacing the best team in the world in a manner that can't be reasonably dismissed as anything like an "ensemble".
Jokic grabs the #2 spot, and I think has a serious argument for #1. I'd say he brings more latent impact with him to any given situation that Shai or anyone playing right now, but at the same time, we've never seen Jokic lead a team through the kind of all-season the Thunder just had, and given his defensive limitations, I don't think you could expect a Thunder-type team built around him to work as well as it does with Shai.
I have Giannis basically down a tier from the top two as a candidate, but also never really had much doubt he would stay at the 3rd spot. We all know Giannis is possibly the most viscerally terrifying opponent in the entire league and puts up huge numbers, including generally on the +/- front, and that if he were leading teams to more chips he'd be a strong candidate for #1. He's not and so our different philosophies decide how to slot him in. I'm very much on record in being critical of Giannis because a) in the 2020s his defensive impact has been spottier than his MVP peak, and b) to me the entire premise of acquiring Dame Lillard needed to be about Giannis making adjustments around Dame as much as it was about Dame adjusting to Giannis, but harmonization has yet to really happen, and that's something some other offensive players would have been able to do much more adroitly. Still, this Bucks team was good and remember, they won the NBA Cup! Say what you will about that, but it's not like they beat nobodies to win it, they beat OKC and in that final game Giannis led his team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks & steals on his way to being named Cup MVP. That's not nothing.
Getting to the #4 spot is where I've been struggling as I've said, but I ended up going with the man of the moment Hali over a scrum of the other guys who are all included on either my ballot or my HM. I spent a lot of time with Hali vs teammate Pascal in particular who I think has a case for being the more cumulatively impactful player over the course of the season...but the team went with Hali, and so when they were there in Game 7 pushing OKC to the brink that no one else did, it was Hali who all the attention - opponent and spectator - was on, and the qualitative change in play of the Pacers when he went to the locker room was stark.
Then when I zoom out a bit and compared Hali with other offensive alphas, I just think the way Hali does it leads to a more robust style of team play than what more individualist alphas (including Shai) will get you.
For that final spot I have to acknowledge a reluctance to have two Pacers in my 5, and so leaned toward the quartet of individualist alphas (Brunson, Tatum, Mitchell, Ant). I had Tatum clearly ahead of the other before the 2nd round, and so it's a question of how much that 2nd round mattered for these guys. Here I'll say that Brunson left something of an indelible impression in contrast to Tatum in their series facing off - and yes there was some luck involved, but it just wasn't the finest moment for the Tatum Celtics before the injury with that serious run of lose-from-ahead games.
It's possible that Mitchell or Ant could have made the same impression on me if they'd played those Celtics, but this is where I'd note Brunson's tendency to get the better of Mitchell in past playoff series, and the fact that Ant still seems to go gently into that good night when he hits a good enough opponent.
I like to give 5 HMs for POY, so the final one goes to the #2 guy on the champs. Doesn't necessarily mean I think he was a top 10 player this year, but I do think he's in the conversation, and wow, what a remarkable rise for the young fella from Santa Clara!
OPOY
1. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
3. Tyrese Haliburton (IND)
HM: Steph Curry (GS), Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Alright so this is a bit of an unsatisfying vote because I'm not utterly in love with the team offense from Denver or OKC in the playoffs, but they keep their top 2 slots from the regular season. The 3rd spot is grabbed by Hali, who led the most effective offense in the playoffs with a higher on-court ORtg an On-Off ORtg, and is the player who makes me ask the question:
Should Hali be #1? I really do think he's got an argument.
Now, Jokic has the immediate rebuttal to me in that I think he's got most of the same strengths as Hali on offense, plus with far more ability to reliably volume score, and we know that Jokic had weak-shooting teammates around him where Hali had strong. I think keeping Jokic ahead of Hali just seems the rational way to be.
What about Shai vs Tyrese? Well, when Tyrese is at his best, I think he's the better offensive player, but as noted, he was inconsistent this year, which had everything to do with why OKC had the better offense by a good margin in the regular season. My general feeling was that Hali was making up ground through the playoffs...only for his body to fall apart again in Game 7 with what was likely an over-use injury despite playing less than Shai. In the end, I feel like when the guy leading in the regular season and he then leads his team to the title largely the same way, it shouldn't be easy to top him by being sometimes-spectacular.
Steph earns an HM this year. Had he not gone down to injury, he may have been a strong ballot candidate here, but I think the 3 ballot guys just accomplished more on offense this year.
Giannis earns the HM with his bull-in-a-china-shop game. As I've said, I have some criticism of the limitations of this approach, but I wouldn't say there's anyone else I'd look at who clearly led their team offense to a higher level come playoff time.
Before I leave the award though I'll mention the Cav back court of Darius Garland & Donovan Mitchell. I actually had Garland on my regular season ballot, but his injury took him out of contention. Mitchell was then clearly a serious contender, but I went with giving the nod to the last HM spot to Giannis.
DPOY
1. Draymond Green (GS)
2. Rudy Gobert (MIN)
3. Alex Caruso (OKC)
HM: Victor Wembanyama (SA), Ivica Zubac (LAC)
An exceptionally weak year for this award. Kinda feels like I have the top two defensive players of this past generation in my top 2 here by default. That's not true, but for both this was a year that I'm not sure how much people talk about when they talk about their respective careers despite continuing to be elite and leading the defensive teams winning playoff series.
Over to the 3rd spot, I spent a lot of time trying to figure out the most reasonable way to praise the members of the Oklahoma City Thunder for their defense in this vote. The 3 guys I was seriously considering were Caruso, Jalen Williams & Lu Dort. By my EPM VORP estimate in the regular season JDub deserved to be ranked the highest of the 3, followed by Caruso and then Dort. Then the playoffs happened and while all the guys deserved praise, Caruso to me was the one who leapt up even further. Were my all-season awards simply about something like a cumulative VORP, I expect I'd still have JDub ahead...but in the playoffs, to me Caruso was the Thunder's defensive MVP over the other two (though shout out to Chet Holmgren who I expect to be the top Thunder candidate in future years).
There's also just a part of me that feels like Caruso is the appropriate avatar for the Thunder defense this year, in part because he was the most important new addition and I do believe the legendary intensity he plays with is infectious. Earlier in his career, Caruso was a plucky underdog, now he feels like a role model for other pros.
For my HMs, obviously Wemby is the guy we'd have expected to win this award if he'd just stayed health, so, shout out.
For Zubac, this is the guy who topped my regular season defensive EPM VORP and while that didn't necessarily clinch that he'd be my RS DPOY choice, he was. However, that didn't mean I had as much confidence in him as Dray or Gobert in the playoffs, nor that I thought his presence would make OKC's defense better. For Zubac to maintain that placement, frankly, I wanted him to really show some dominance which would further the hot play the Clippers had to end the year...and presumably win 1 or 2 rounds in the playoffs...but that's not what happened. In the end, I didn't feel right putting him over the 3 guys on my ballot.
ROY
1. Zaccherie Risacher (ATL)
2. Stephon Castle (SA)
3. Jaylen Wells (MEM)
HM: Zach Edey (MEM), Jared McCain (PHI)
Okay so, this is an awful ROY class and that's just how it is. I don't want to argue hard for anyone, because I don't think any of them really proved all that much, but to give something of a window:
I spent a lot of time debating Risacher vs Castle. Toward the end of the regular season I elevated Risacher above Castle, but then after Risacher was basically nothing in the play-in, I began second guessing myself. Castle won the actual ROY easily, so maybe I should just stick with that, right?
ROY is a complicated award is it's traditionally not about the most valuable rookie (which I'd say was either Wells or Edey) so much as the guy who looks most like a future star...which often translates to whichever rookie has a team that let's him shoot the most. In the case this year, what was interesting though is that people generally seemed to agree that Risacher had only further entrenched himself as the top player from the draft class as a result of the season, and yet they weren't giving him ROY. PPG won again!
But, funny thing, while Castle did score the most PPG, Risacher had twice as many 30 point games as any other rookie (uh, 4 vs 2), and he led his team to a 3-1 record in those games. meanwhile the Spurs lost all (4) of Castle's 25+ games. It's not as simple as saying that these rookies were the difference between wins and losses there obviously, but in the case of the Spurs, this was a pretty clear cut case of a team punting on the season after their star got injured, and letting a rookie take primacy as the team lost and lost and lost, and there's basically no reason at all to think the Spurs are going to look to plan their future offense around giving Castle primacy unless he gets WAY better than he is now. By contrast, the Hawks may well see Risacher as their franchise player right now.
Giving Wells the 3rd spot over teammate Edey basically because the Grizz relied on his minutes more.
Final mention goes to McCain who had the ROY league early in the year until his injury.
MIP
1. Ivica Zubac (LAC)
2. Cade Cunningham (DET)
3. Evan Mobley (CLE)
HM: Jalen Williams (OKC), Christian Braun (DEN)
Alright so my perspective on this generally is that I'm looking at guy who emerge as all-star level for the first time. I believe the list of first time all-stars this year was Cade, Mobley, JDub, Sengun and Herro, and I also believe that Zubac deserved to be one of them and had a year that was at least good enough to be in the debate with the rest of those guys as to who the best player was this year. Here's where I'll also say that while I'm not opposed to naming young guys MIP, there's something special about when a veteran hits a new level.
Rather than give all my mentions to the all-star level guys, I gave a shout out in my last spot to Braun. While the Nuggets dealt with a whole lot of stagnancy from their supporting cast, Braun's breakthrough was a bright shining beacon of hope for Denver.
6MOY
1. Payton Pritchard (BOS)
2. Alex Caruso (OKC)
3. TJ McConnell (IND)
HM: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN), Ty Jerome (CLE)
I think Pritchard is an absolutely classic 6th Man choice, and I thought his work in the playoffs was even more impressive. While I think Caruso was more valuable per minute, I'm reluctant to elevate him over Pritchard for the top spot here.
TJ slides in for the 3rd spot with fellow microwave Jerome also getting an HM.
Cousin NAW get an HM too, slightly over teammate (and defending 6MOY) Naz Reid. While Naz was eligible for the award, NAW was more consistently used as a bench player and feels like he really warrants at least a smidge of recognition.
COY
1. Rick Carlisle (IND)
2. Mark Daigneault (OKC)
3. Kenny Atkinson (CLE)
HM: BJ Bickerstaff (DET), Ime Udoka (HOU)
What a freaking legendary run this has been for Carlisle returning to Indiana. Exceptionally impressive the way the 'Cer players down the roation seemed just more resilient than any other team's rosters.
Daigneault is once again a strong choice for COY (he was my choice last year). Deserves heavy praise for this cutting edge Thunder defense, but he also had some clumsy moments in the playoffs which knock him back just a bit relative to the Rocky remake Carlisle put on.
Atkinson grabs the last spot on the ballot with his fantastic debut in Cleveland, and the man he replaced earns an HM for his debut in Detroit.
Last HM goes to Udoka who continues to develop a rep as a coach who can architect outstanding team defense wherever he goes. Damn impressive.
EOY
1. Sam Presti (OKC)
2. Rob Pelinka (LAL)
3. Mike Dunleavy Jr. (GS)
HM: Trajan Langdon (DET), Landry Fields (ATL)
Alright so I was am most impressed right now by Presti among execs, and this season was a critical moment for him as he traded a top draft pick (Giddey) for the perfect role player (Caruso), and signed iHart. These are the sorts of minor moves that you really want to a GM teach you a trick or two, and Presti's definitely a guy who can do that.
Lots of mixed feelings about Pelinka on here, but while I don't want to give him too much credit, I think he deserves a good amount of credit when his efforts schmoozing lead to the steal of Luka.
3rd spot to Dunleavy primarily for the Jimmy Butler trade.
HM to Langdon for righting the Detroit Piston ship. Still want to see this team become great rather than merely good, but good is a big improvement relative to where they were before.
The now fired Fields to me deserves HM in part because he got fired by his unwise owner. In a year where he got rid of Dejounte, and brought in surprisingly synergistic and effective talent to work together, he sure seems like he deserved better.
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