phincsfan wrote:hugepatsfan wrote:For 2-26-27, cap is now projected to go up just 7%. All cap sites had assumed 10%. That means next year's tax threshold will be $5.6M lower than previously anticipated. Means that as of right now, we're about $25.8M below the projected tax line for 26-27 with 9 players signed.
Personally, I've been advocating for ducking this year and next year to reset repeater status so that whatever their payroll limit from ownership in future seasons beyond gets stretched further. It's not even about saving them money, it's about allocating what they spend. Tatum is out this year and due to rust, I expect 26-27 to be the worst year left of Tatum's prime. I expect the 3 best years of his career left will be 27-28, 28-29, and 29-30. Being a regular taxpayer vs. repeat in those years means means you can fit an extra 1-2 good salaries in under whatever limit ownership has on payroll. It's just smart resource planning, IMO. I don't want to have years in Tatum's prime where we look back and wish we we had 1-2 more pieces. Resetting repeater rates IMO was a valid short term trade off for less risk of that long term.
However, a big part of that was that they were still far enough under the tax next year to go add a solid big man. I wasn't saying punt on the year or anything. Going from $31.5M under the tax still with 5 spots to fill to now $25.8M with those 5 spots to fill isn't nothing. It makes a real difference. The degree to which you trade off your quality of team in 26-27 to duck the tax now is higher.
So we'll see what this means. On the one hand, it could mean more spending this year if they don't forecast resetting the tax now because it's too much punting on next year. On the other, if they see this as part of a long term trend, it might make it critical that they reset repeater rates so they can add enough players within their payroll limits in future years.
I bet it goes up 15% the following year.
22' the luxury tax was 150mil
23' the luxury tax was 165mil
24' the luxury tax was 170mil (what was different?)
25' the luxury tax will be 188mil
Cap raises are capped at 10%.
